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Date: 2026-03-03 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00029371
UKRAINE
ABOUT PLANNING TO WIN ... The Military Show

This Is How Ukraine WINS the War in 2026


Original article:
This Is How Ukraine WINS the War in 2026

The Military Show

Dec 25, 2025

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Ukraine’s war effort has evolved from sheer survival to a disciplined strategy built on resilience at home and precision strikes far beyond the front. Massive investments in backup power, renewables, and hardened infrastructure keep the country running, while an expanding drone and missile industry hits critical targets with growing effect. Together, these moves outline Kyiv’s path from endurance to potential victory.

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Peter Burgess COMMENTARY



Peter Burgess
Transcript
  • 0:00
  • When Russia invaded in 2022, Ukraine wasn’t concerned with victory. It was only focused on
  • survival. In fact, the very idea of Ukraine being able to win a war with Russia would have sounded
  • ludicrous, at the time. But times have changed. Ukraine has grown far stronger than anyone might
  • have imagined, while once mighty Russia has proven to be far more incompetent than expected. Now,
  • a Ukrainian victory seems less like a fantasy, and more like a probability. What’s more,
  • Kyiv has a plan to win this war as soon as 2026. It’s a two part plan, with two core objectives.
  • The first is survival. Ukraine cannot win this war if it’s not in it. It has to be able to survive
  • long enough to orchestrate its offensives and deal the type of damage that will force the Kremlin to
  • concede. For that, it must ensure it can continue withstanding Russia’s immense aerial attacks,
  • involving hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles fired at the nation on a near-nightly
  • basis. As Russia’s drone production ramps up, these attacks are only going to intensify,

  • 1:04
  • and Russia is already capable of launching swarms and salvos that are said to be 10
  • times larger than those of previous years. Even with its extraordinary air defenses,
  • capable of taking out up to 80% of Russia’s drones on a consistent basis, Ukraine simply isn’t able
  • to stop them all. Some will inevitably find a way to sneak through and strike their targets,
  • and in recent times, those targets tend to primarily include important pieces of
  • Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Just as Ukraine has used its drones and missiles to target oil
  • infrastructure across Russia, the Kremlin has attempted to pursue a similar strategy,
  • cutting off heat and power to countless civilian homes and important industries. The attacks have
  • taken a toll. Ukraine has lost an estimated 60% of its natural gas production capacity,
  • elevating its energy import bills. Private energy companies are also struggling beneath the sheer
  • weight of Russian attacks. Facilities that might have been hit by just a couple of drones in 2023

  • 2:04
  • and 2024 are now being struck by more, suffering greater damage that takes more time, money,
  • and resources to repair. But Ukraine has multiple plans in place to address this, as its president,
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy, revealed in October 2025: “We have Plan A and Plan B. Under Plan B,
  • if there is, for example, a strong attack on all gas infrastructure, we understand that we have
  • imports then. We know the volume and cost of the necessary imports — this is Plan B. Plan A is when
  • we rely more on our own production. In Plan B, we also know where to find the money required.” A big
  • part of Ukraine’s Plan A revolves around backup systems and fail-safes to keep the country’s
  • power flowing, even if important infrastructure comes under attack. For example, DTEK, which is
  • Ukraine’s largest private energy investor, has set up several emergency power supply facilities in

  • 3:00
  • strategic locations across the country, including one near Kyiv. Each of these facilities is made up
  • of dozens of eight foot tall (2.5 meter) battery storage cubes, boasting a total capacity of 200
  • megawatts, which is about half as much as a nuclear reactor. If and when a Russian attack
  • takes out part of the power network, facilities like these can come online in a matter of
  • milliseconds, counter-acting the losses to keep the grid online. DTEK is also heavily invested in
  • renewable energies. Back in mid-2022, when its officials saw that Russia intended to target
  • Ukrainian energy infrastructure, they recommenced construction of a €450 million ($520 million) 500
  • megawatt wind farm site in Odessa, in Southern Ukraine. While that might have seemed a rash move,
  • since Russia could simply shift focus and target the site with its drones and missiles, many green
  • energy installations are actually significantly harder to take out than conventional ones. Having

  • 4:01
  • to destroy multiple wind turbines spread out across large spaces, for example, is a lot more
  • challenging than targeting a single coal power plant. Even when turbines are struck by drones,
  • repairs don’t tend to take long, with Oleksandr Selyshchev (Ah-lek-san-der She-lee-shev),
  • chief executive officer for renewables at DTEK, explaining: “By nature, wind power is more
  • resilient. Of course, you can destroy anything, but wind is more decentralized and so easier to
  • secure.” Many new turbines have been constructed already, with dozens of more going up over the
  • course of 2026. DTEK also has plans to build an even larger 650 megawatt wind farm, which,
  • when combined with the Odessa project, would account for over 1 gigawatt of energy, which is
  • more than half of the government’s target. These sorts of energy improvements are imperative for
  • Ukraine to continue defying the odds and standing up to Russia’s relentless aggression. In 2021,
  • the country’s total generating capacity stood at 21.8 gigawatts. By 2025, it had slipped to

  • 5:05
  • 17 gigawatts, because of both occupation of its territories and destruction of its infrastructure.
  • Anywhere from 15 to 17 gigawatts should be enough to keep the country’s heat and power going,
  • according to infrastructure minister, Oleksiy Kuleba (Ah-lek-see Koo-leh-bah), but anything
  • less than that could trigger wide scale blackouts. Fortunately, wind farms and battery backups aren’t
  • the only aces up Kyiv’s sleeve. Ukraine has also transferred around 1 gigawatt of its total output
  • capacity to small, reinforced units that are very difficult for the Russians to locate and destroy.
  • In addition, countless shops, offices, schools, and more all over the nation have obtained backup
  • generators to keep the lights and the power flowing, even in the worst case scenarios.
  • Around 10,000 of these same locations serve as “heat centers” through the colder months of the
  • year, so that even if people lose heating at home, they can head to a communal space nearby to keep

  • 6:00
  • themselves and their families warm. Time will tell if Ukraine’s precautionary measures and defensive
  • steps will be enough to help the country cope with the coming onslaught of Russian drone swarms
  • and missile salvos. But it’s clear that Kyiv is doing all it can think of to prepare for every
  • eventuality. And if the second section of its plan goes well, it won’t need to withstand these sorts
  • of attacks indefinitely, because, while the first part of Ukraine’s plan for victory is
  • purely defensive, focusing on withstanding attacks and helping its people and infrastructure survive,
  • the second element is all about attack. Because no country can win a war simply by defending its
  • territory. It has to strike back, and Ukraine has well and truly mastered the art of striking back.
  • It wasn’t able to do much at the outset of the war, forced to focus all of its efforts
  • and resources on digging in and defending its territories, as well as it could. It’s only as
  • time has gone by and many segments of the front line have since stabilized that Ukraine has found
  • the time, space, and opportunity to launch counter operations against the Russians. And they have

  • 7:04
  • been devastating. Ukraine’s deep drone strikes have dealt one crushing blow after another,
  • wiping out Russian weapons and defensive systems, eliminating enormous stockpiles of
  • ammo and supplies, and, perhaps most importantly of all, crippling the country’s oil industry,
  • slashing production capacity and triggering an unprecedented fuel crisis. Seeing how well that
  • strategy works, Ukraine understandably intends to not only persist with it, but elevate it.
  • It’s taking its drone industry in exciting new directions, recruiting more and more people from
  • all walks of life to contribute to the cause. In vast factories and sprawling warehouses all
  • across the country, countless people are playing their part, carrying out all kinds of tasks,
  • from producing electric panels to assembling drone components and carrying out quality assurance
  • checks before the latest batch of drones is dispatched to its next destination. This is
  • an industry that didn’t even exist just a short time ago. When the war began, Ukraine didn’t have

  • 8:05
  • vast drone armies or forward thinking military startups looking at ways to integrate artificial
  • intelligence technologies to help quadcopters evade enemy air defenses. Now, Ukraine is the home
  • of drones, churning out millions of them each year in all shapes and sizes, from cheap decoy drones
  • that are designed merely to confuse and saturate enemy systems to state of the art maritime drones
  • equipped with enough firepower to blow enemy aircraft out of the skies, like the game-changing
  • Magura 7. Ukrainian designers, engineers, and tacticians have broken the boundaries of drone
  • warfare, delivering one innovation after another and discovering extraordinary new ways of working
  • with their ever-evolving army of unmanned aerial vehicles. Many are deployed along the front lines,
  • preventing Russian forces from making the major gains they need to push on towards any sort of
  • victory, even in the contested territories they assumed would be reasonably easy to capture.

  • 9:02
  • Other drones have been sent out to sea, clearing out Russian ships along the Black Sea coast. But
  • arguably the most important drones of all are those that Ukraine sends over its international
  • borders and deep into Russia’s territory, striking at everything from military bases and airfields to
  • oil refineries and pipelines. Many in Ukraine feel that this is the key to victory – the
  • best and smartest strategy, perhaps even the only viable strategy, to win the war, once and for all.
  • And that shows just how dynamic and different this conflict is when compared to so many others that
  • came before it. Many conventional wars revolve around the front lines. That’s where almost all of
  • the fighting takes place, it’s where territories are lost and win, victories are celebrated and
  • defeats mourned. It’s where breakthroughs occur and inroads form, where strongholds are solidified
  • or smashed and momentum shifts from one side to the other. That’s not the case in Ukraine. In
  • this war, the front lines rapidly devolved into a stalemate situation – one in which both sides

  • 10:04
  • have repeatedly struggled to make major gains, and the statistics back this up. Russia has claimed
  • less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory since late 2022. Its troops progress at a snail’s pace,
  • and even the complete capture of the four original territories targeted by Vladimir Putin – Donetsk,
  • Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia – could be several years away, while it would take decades,
  • or even centuries, by some estimates, for Russia to take over all of Ukraine at the rate
  • it’s currently moving. Evidently, while the front lines are of great significance in this conflict,
  • they’re not going to be the decisive factor. They’re not where this war will be won or lost.
  • Instead, the conflict will almost inevitably come down to which side can afford to keep it going
  • the longest. That, in turn, will depend on how much economic and political pressure builds up
  • on both sides, and it’s up to Ukraine to ensure it causes as many problems for Russia at the fastest

  • 11:00
  • possible rate to ramp up those pressure levels and drag Putin to the negotiating table, once and for
  • all. To accomplish that, Ukraine simply needs to keep on doing what it’s done over the course
  • of 2025: find and identify the most important, valuable assets in Russian regions and either
  • damage them or wipe them off the map entirely with increasingly powerful drones and missiles.
  • Many Ukrainian defense sector companies are working with this objective in mind.
  • Fire Point, for example, is a Ukrainian firm specializing in weaponry for long range attacks,
  • like drones that are capable of traveling extraordinary distances of around 870 miles
  • (1,400 kilometers) and loitering in the air for up to seven hours before striking their targets.
  • These are the kinds of weapons Ukraine needs to not merely target airfields and refineries in
  • occupied territories and Russian regions that are closest to its borders, like Bryansk and Kursk,
  • but to strike much further, deep in the Russian heartlands, in its Central regions and even all

  • 12:04
  • the way to its Far East territories, too. Fire Point also made major headlines in
  • 2025 when it unveiled one of the most powerful additions to the Ukrainian arsenal, the Flamingo
  • cruise missile. Capable of hitting targets around 1,860 miles (3,000 kilometers) away,
  • Flamingo missiles bring countless Russian targets into range, giving Kyiv’s commanders a whole host
  • of new options to explore. Fire Point is working on ballistic missiles, too, the kind capable of
  • traveling at hypersonic speeds to easily evade enemy air defenses and strike targets before the
  • Russians even have time to think of formulating a response. And there are many more companies,
  • just like this one, working round the clock to design and develop drones that fly further,
  • missiles that move faster, and other systems that can elevate Ukraine’s offensive capabilities in
  • big, bold, game-changing ways. As a result of all this exciting new technology and ever-expanding

  • 13:02
  • capacities, the amount of attacks inside Russia have steadily increased with each passing month.
  • The severity of these strikes has also risen, with more powerful weapons being deployed to not merely
  • inflict minor damage to Russian factories and pipelines that might take a few weeks to fix,
  • but to leave utter destruction and carnage in their wake. One officer recently revealed in
  • an interview with The Atlantic that Ukraine’s long range drone units now conduct dozens of
  • attacks on Russia every single night. Naturally, not all of them prove successful, but many do,
  • and their collective effects are being seen and felt far and wide across Russia’s vast lands. It
  • took time for this to happen. After the first few Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries
  • and fuel storage facilities, for example, there wasn’t any immediate economic chaos for Russia to
  • worry about. But as these attacks have added up, their effects have been magnified and multiplied,
  • leading all the way up to the aforementioned fuel crisis. What’s more, while there are often news

  • 14:03
  • reports and Telegram posts from Ukrainian authorities like the Main Directorate of
  • Intelligence (GUR) sharing details of the latest attacks, this isn’t the case for all of them.
  • Ukraine’s forces know when to share information and when to withhold it. They do not always admit
  • to striking targets deep within Russia, nor do they share detailed reports of all of their
  • attacks. Many also take place in remote, obscure locations, far from urban centers and civilian
  • populations, with nobody around to hold up their smartphones and film the fires and explosions to
  • share online. The Russian authorities, too, put a lot of effort into concealing such
  • strikes and minimizing any reports of damage or destruction, both from their own people and the
  • wider world. But it’s not because we don’t hear about these attacks that they’re not happening.
  • And the Ukrainian Armed Forces do everything they can to keep close tabs on every target,
  • assessing the damage of their attacks and learning lessons to take forward into future strikes. They

  • 15:02
  • constantly strive to improve the lethality of their aerial assaults and make the most of every
  • single resource at their disposal, unlike Russia, which never seems to learn from its mistakes and
  • instead persists with the same tired tactics again and again, suffering catastrophic losses in the
  • process. This is just one of the ways in which Ukraine is gaining an edge in the conflict. While
  • Russia wastes its resources and stubbornly repeats errors of the past, Ukraine never settles for
  • anything less than the best. Its commanders and intelligence operatives are constantly fine-tuning
  • their strategies and seeking new high priority targets, from airports and weapons factories to
  • depots and more, in order to hit the Kremlin where it hurts the most: the economy. As one
  • Ukrainian officer explained to The Atlantic: “Russia can sustain extremely high levels of
  • casualties and losses in human lives. They don’t care about people’s lives, [however] it is painful
  • for them to lose money. So naturally, we need to reduce the amount of money available for them.” It

  • 16:05
  • truly is as simple as that. If Ukraine can strike enough valuable pieces of Russian infrastructure,
  • the costs should, eventually, spiral beyond the Kremlin’s control. That’s why the oil industry has
  • proven such a popular target for Ukrainian drones, and it’s why Ukraine’s forces also seek to wipe
  • out enemy air defenses, like radars and missile systems, so the drones have even easier access and
  • clear, uninterrupted pathways to their targets. It’s a strategy that is already functioning,
  • and the list of targets grows longer by the day. Between August and October of 2025 alone,
  • 16 Russian refineries were hit with drones. These include facilities in numerous cities and regions,
  • including Samara, Volgogad, Sochi, and Ryazan. Pumping stations, pipelines, and oil terminals,
  • too, have been taken out, and Russia’s oil exports have plummeted to their lowest ever levels, as a
  • direct result. Russian people and businesses, too, are running out of fuel with every passing day,

  • 17:04
  • and the Kremlin is already scrambling, banning the export of refined oil products while gas
  • stations from east to west are forced to shut their doors. Now just imagine how much worse
  • this situation could become when more powerful Ukrainian drones and missiles bombard even more
  • of Russia’s refineries and other pieces of infrastructure, when even locations hundreds
  • of miles away are no longer safe, when the damage dealt is even more massive than before. To make
  • matters worse for Russia, and better for Ukraine, many European allies are backing this strategy.
  • Germany has pledged over $10 billion in support for Ukraine, with a large part of that money
  • being used for drone manufacture. Sweden has promised $7.4 billion, too, while the European
  • Union’s $7 billion Drone Alliance project will also benefit Ukraine, as more drones and drone
  • defense systems are designed and deployed along Europe’s eastern flank. Ukraine and Europe are

  • 18:01
  • also joining forces to attack Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, made up of oil tankers that continue
  • to flout sanctions and bend the rules, carrying illicit oil to countries across the globe. Sweden,
  • Germany, and Denmark have all announced plans to more strictly monitor and verify the
  • identities of these ships and sanction those that are found to be breaking the law. This,
  • too, will damage Russia’s oil industry and its economy, and make Kyiv’s inevitable,
  • intensifying attacks on enemy infrastructure even more devastating. As Zelenskyy notes: “The
  • most effective sanctions—the ones that work the fastest—are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries,
  • its terminals, oil depots.” Strengthening its defenses at home and elevating its attacks in
  • Russia, Ukraine is making all the right moves to not just take momentum away from its enemy,
  • but to take its own big steps towards securing something that would have seemed impossible just
  • a few years ago: victory. Watch this video to learn even more about Ukraine’s latest successes,

  • 19:04
  • and find out how Kyiv’s drones are now starting to focus on the likes of substations and power grids,
  • slicing the lines of power that keep the Kremlin’s industries running. Or, for an
  • even clearer picture of how dire the Russian situation is becoming, check out this video,
  • which looks at how one Kremlin official recently highlighted five possible crises facing his nation
  • in the months ahead, including the very real risk of widespread political unrest and even civil war.
  • Be sure to subscribe to our channel too for more breaking military news and in-depth
  • battlefield reports from the Russia-Ukraine war and other important conflicts, worldwide.


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