Date: 2025-07-04 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00028656
Illustration of a clock featuring a slice Ben Franklin from
a hundred dollar bill ... Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
I have been expecting a lot more obvious economic weakness than I am seeing and being reported in the reputable media.
My local supermarket has very full shelves ... which might actually be a sign that the economy is starting to stunble. My guess is that the stores are getting overstocked because customers have slowed down their buying by an amount that is now starting to be considerable.
It seems that retail prices continue to increase. I am looking for some signs that goods are not moving as fast as planners had expected ... like perhaps a growing number of 'deeper sales prices' than we have been seeing up to now.
Many prices continue to climb. There seems to be a disconnect between what I am seeing at the store level and what I understand is going on at the wholesale level.
This week I noticed a number of time limited items that were up against their expiry dates ... something that I had not noticed before, I am not sure whether this was an anomoly ir something that is getting to be a problem for the store!
I am of the opinion tht this Axios reporting is way too optimistic. It would be good for the American consumer if I am wrong and the US retail economy stays strong ... but bigger issues are also at play including the outside world being 'mad as hell' at a lot of what Trump is doing and are taking steps to hold the USA to account.
My guess is that the US population is going to be shocked when the 'free world' gangs up against the USA. This has started and will ... in my opinion ... take down the USA in the next few months in a way that has not been seen before. Hold on ... a rough ride is coming!
I do not share the optimism expresssed in this Axios reporting!
Peter Burgess
Written by Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown ·
Jun 11, 2025
Another cool inflation print adds to evidence that the economy is holding up better than many expected a few months ago, amid steady growth and modest inflation.
But what happens now, as tariffs filter through to consumer prices? We explore it below. Plus, gaming out the next Federal Reserve chair.
Today's newsletter, edited by Ben Berkowitz and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 827 words, a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: The 'Waiting for Godot' economy
A run of better-than-expected indicators — including today's inflation report — so far point to a strikingly resilient economy.
Why it matters: Those waiting for signs of a tariff-wrecked economy will have to keep waiting.
Economists anticipate President Trump's policies, particularly those related to trade, will weaken growth and raise consumer prices. But how, when, or even if looks more uncertain than ever.
State of play: Consider the economic news flow in recent days.
The May Consumer Price Index came in cooler than expected, extending a monthslong streak of easing price pressures.
U.S.-China trade tensions appear to have simmered down, with Trump touting a deal that will unlock critical minerals for U.S. manufacturers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers today that U.S. tax receipts in May came in almost 15% above the previous year, despite cuts at the Internal Revenue Service.
Stock prices are approaching record levels, less than 2% below the all-time high reached in February.
The intrigue: The Wall Street consensus is that a tariff shock will weaken the economy and put upward pressure on inflation. Economists are just waiting for something to happen, much like the two characters in the play 'Waiting for Godot.'
The huge question is whether the anticipated slowdown — Godot — shows up.
What to watch: Many businesses are running down supplies brought in from overseas before tariffs took effect, shielding consumers from price hikes. Once that inventory dries up, retailers will have to face tough choices about how much to pass along to customers.
Those front-loading effects have created an economic mirage of sorts, resulting in a demand surge that isn't expected to stick.
Last week's employment report signaled some underlying weakness in the job market, including a surge of workers leaving the labor force. It's too soon to tell whether the exodus was a one-off.
Yes, but: That doesn't mean there aren't warning signs out there.
- A bond market sell-off in recent weeks signaled a reversal of norms that prevailed in the 2010s: investors demanding more compensation to hold longer-term debt — a phenomenon partly ignited by higher deficits signaled by Trump's signature tax legislation.
- Interest rates are below peak levels seen at the height of the inflation shock, but they're still high enough to be considered restrictive on economic activity by many Fed officials. It's unclear how that extended weight will ripple through the economy.
- What they're saying: 'Tariff-driven price increases may not feed through to the CPI data for a few more months yet, so it is far too premature to assume that the price shock will not materialize,' Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note.
Disruptive Trump policies are the next big test — and so far, so go