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Ukrainian soldiers firing toward a Russian target in the Donetsk region
of eastern Ukraine last month.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times /div>
After initially echoing Moscow’s talking points — even falsely blaming Ukraine for the war — Mr. Trump has hardened his rhetoric about Mr. Putin and the Kremlin in recent weeks. Mr. Trump is threatening to punish the buyers of Russian oil, he is sending more advanced weapons to Ukraine, and he has struck a mineral development deal with Kyiv that gives the United States a valuable stake in Ukraine’s future security and prosperity.

In Ukraine, the Russian military is making sparse gains and absorbing heavily losses. Russian forces have seized an average of 2.5 square miles a day over the past three months, according to calculations by a Finnish-based military intelligence firm, the Black Bird Group. At this pace it would take Russia years to conquer the regions that it has already claimed to annex.

Rather than changing course, Mr. Putin has doubled down on his policies and demands. He has declined Mr. Trump’s proposal to freeze the fighting along the current front line before starting to negotiate a peace deal, and has demanded that the United States get the European Union to lift some of its sanctions.

At the same time, Russian forces have continued to pound Ukrainian cities, killing or wounding more than 2,600 civilians in the first three months of the year, according to the United Nations. A particularly deadly strike on Kyiv last month led Mr. Trump to issue a rare public rebuke to Mr. Putin.

“It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently,” with additional sanctions, Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in late April.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia projects confidence about the war in Ukraine, but his country faces deep challenges.Credit...Pool photo by Alexander Zemlianichenko /div>
Despite such challenges, about a dozen heads of state, including leaders of the economic giants China and Brazil, are expected in Red Square on Friday, underscoring the Kremlin’s claim that far-reaching Western sanctions have failed to isolate Russia. More than 130 pieces of military equipment, including intercontinental missile carriers, are scheduled to roll through Moscow and soldiers from friendly nations are expected to march with Russian troops, showing that Russia is not alone in what it presents as a proxy struggle against NATO.

On the economic front, however, Russia is wounded and losing steam, pressured by falling oil prices, rapidly dwindling foreign currency reserves, record-high interest rates and the punitive sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s main ally, China, is reducing purchases of Russian coal and steel as it adjusts to a trade war with the United States.

Russia has accepted a decision made this month by a group of major oil exporting countries, known as OPEC+, to ramp up output, a move that has depressed oil prices already hit by the impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The benchmark Brent oil blend traded at about $62 per barrel on Wednesday, down from about $75 when Mr. Trump announced his global tariffs on Apr. 2.

Falling oil revenue, which finances about 40 percent of Russia’s government budget, is already hurting its war economy. The Ministry of Finance this month more than tripled the budget deficit forecast for this year to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product, and slashed its price forecast for Russia’s main type of exported oil from $70 per barrel to $56.

Analysts estimate that to cover the rising deficit, the government would have to either spend its remaining rainy day stockpile of foreign reserves and gold, or print more money, which would worsen the already high inflation, now running at about 10 percent. The Kremlin considered, but this week scrapped, a proposal to reduce public spending to compensate for declining oil prices.

Mr. Putin has tolerated the central bank’s policy of keeping interest rates at record highs in an attempt to dampen price increases. But a growing chorus of Russian officials and businessmen has blamed the interest rates, kept at 21 percent since October, for wiping out growth without cooling prices, a lose-lose economic scenario known as stagflation.

Russian consumers are grumbling about food prices, which rose at an annual rate of more than 12 percent in March, but these concerns have so far have not translated into broader dissatisfaction with the government, said Denis Volkov, head of Moscow-based independent pollster Levada Center.

Rising wages, government subsidies for the poor, and decades of living with high inflation mean that in surveys conducted as recently as April more Russians say that their economic situation is improving, rather than worsening, Mr. Volkov said in an interview in Moscow.

Two women and a dog walk past a row of banners reading “Victory” in Russian. Friday’s parade will offer Mr. Putin an opportunity to display his country’s military might and global clout in the face of economic uncertainty and flagging advances in the war with Ukraine.Credit...Pavel Bednyakov/Associated Press /div>
That political stability will allow Moscow to project national unity in the celebration on Friday, despite the lack of major diplomatic or military breakthroughs in the war. Mr. Putin has regularly used Victory Day, Russia’s main secular holiday, to convey that time is on his side.

Russia’s determination and size ground down Germany’s Wehrmacht, Europe’s military hegemon at the time, in World War II, goes the propaganda messaging, and Ukraine’s NATO-supplied and trained forces will eventually follow suit.

“These scoundrels had once again united against us,” said Yevgeniy, a Russian soldier who fought in Ukraine until he was wounded in December. He asked to withhold his last name because he is not authorized to speak to the public.

“We would’ve been destroyed, wiped out as a nation if we didn’t fight back,” he said, echoing the Kremlin’s unsubstantiated justification for the invasion. “My grandfather fought; I fought: We are the same.”

Alina Lobzina contributed reporting from Istanbul.

Anatoly Kurmanaev covers Russia and its transformation following the invasion of Ukraine.

See more on: Russia-Ukraine War, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

Odesa's Cultural Battle: A push to rename streets and remove statues associated with imperial Russia is dividing Odesa, Ukraine, whose identity is tied up in its history.
U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal: The text of the minerals deal signed by the two countries made no mention of the security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought. The agreement could provide a windfall to the U.S., but the resources will be expensive to extract, and any progress is unlikely while the war rages.
A Shift Between Presidents Zelensky and Trump: In his zigzagging approach to ending the war in Ukraine, Trump has changed his frustration — for now — from Ukraine’s leader to Vladimir Putin.
A Community Blown Apart: The Times talked to more than a dozen family members, neighbors and friends of the victims of the deadliest attack in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, since last summer.
‘We Lost Your Son’: Russia lacks any formal, organized effort to account for legions of missing soldiers. That often leaves relatives in limbo, fending for themselves with scant government information.
Xi Jinping’s Visit to Russia: The Chinese leader’s presence alongside Putin at Red Square will inevitably remind the world of China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could hurt Beijing’s efforts to repair ties with Europe.

How We Verify Our Reporting Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details. We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts. Related Content More in Europe

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Date: 2025-08-20 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00028485

RUSSIA 80 YEAR ANNIVERSARY END WWII NYT: Russia’s Military Show of Strength Masks Economic and Diplomatic Cracks Under a billboard saying “We remember,” spectators watched military vehicles practice for the Victory Day parade in Moscow on Wednesday.Credit...Anton Vaganov/Reuters< /div> Original article: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/world/europe/russia-military-parade.html Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Russia’s Military Show of Strength Masks Economic and Diplomatic Cracks The annual Moscow parade marking victory over Nazi Germany is expected to be the largest in years, with world leaders in attendance, as the Kremlin tries to link that triumph to the war in Ukraine. People line a street, watching armored vehicles roll past, beneath a billboard that says in Russian, “We remember! 1945-2025.” Written by Anatoly Kurmanaev ... Reporting from Moscow May 8, 2025 ... Updated 9:59 a.m. ET Russia will celebrate the 80th anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat on Friday with visiting heads of state and a show of armed might in Red Square, staged as a display of global clout, grandiose and intimidating, and a portent of eventual triumph in the war against Ukraine. The annual military parade below the walls and towers of the Kremlin is expected to be the largest since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a commemoration the government and its cheerleaders have used to raise support for the war, conflating what may be the greatest source of national pride with the far more divisive current conflict. “Our great victory 80 years ago is a new narrative, new conception of Russia’s current standoff with the West,” Sergei Lyaguzin, an international relations professor, said on Russian state television this week. Behind the pomp, though, Russia stands on shakier ground than the Kremlin’s confident show suggests. Its military is barely advancing on the battlefield, its economy is sputtering, prices for oil, its main export, are falling and, perhaps most surprising, President Trump is hinting that his view of President Vladimir V. Putin and his war is souring. Mr. Putin has played down these challenges, accepting short-term economic pain and diplomatic setbacks in the hope that his persistence will eventually yield a triumph of historic proportions, said Alexander Kolyandr, a Russian economy expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a research group. “They are convinced that they are more resilient than their opponents,” he said in a phone interview. “They believe that victory will not go to the side that is the best, but to the one that remains standing the longest.” Ukrainian soldiers firing toward a Russian target in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine last month.Credit...Tyler Hicks/The New York Times /div> After initially echoing Moscow’s talking points — even falsely blaming Ukraine for the war — Mr. Trump has hardened his rhetoric about Mr. Putin and the Kremlin in recent weeks. Mr. Trump is threatening to punish the buyers of Russian oil, he is sending more advanced weapons to Ukraine, and he has struck a mineral development deal with Kyiv that gives the United States a valuable stake in Ukraine’s future security and prosperity. In Ukraine, the Russian military is making sparse gains and absorbing heavily losses. Russian forces have seized an average of 2.5 square miles a day over the past three months, according to calculations by a Finnish-based military intelligence firm, the Black Bird Group. At this pace it would take Russia years to conquer the regions that it has already claimed to annex. Rather than changing course, Mr. Putin has doubled down on his policies and demands. He has declined Mr. Trump’s proposal to freeze the fighting along the current front line before starting to negotiate a peace deal, and has demanded that the United States get the European Union to lift some of its sanctions. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to pound Ukrainian cities, killing or wounding more than 2,600 civilians in the first three months of the year, according to the United Nations. A particularly deadly strike on Kyiv last month led Mr. Trump to issue a rare public rebuke to Mr. Putin. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently,” with additional sanctions, Mr. Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in late April. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia projects confidence about the war in Ukraine, but his country faces deep challenges.Credit...Pool photo by Alexander Zemlianichenko /div> Despite such challenges, about a dozen heads of state, including leaders of the economic giants China and Brazil, are expected in Red Square on Friday, underscoring the Kremlin’s claim that far-reaching Western sanctions have failed to isolate Russia. More than 130 pieces of military equipment, including intercontinental missile carriers, are scheduled to roll through Moscow and soldiers from friendly nations are expected to march with Russian troops, showing that Russia is not alone in what it presents as a proxy struggle against NATO. On the economic front, however, Russia is wounded and losing steam, pressured by falling oil prices, rapidly dwindling foreign currency reserves, record-high interest rates and the punitive sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies in response to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s main ally, China, is reducing purchases of Russian coal and steel as it adjusts to a trade war with the United States. Russia has accepted a decision made this month by a group of major oil exporting countries, known as OPEC+, to ramp up output, a move that has depressed oil prices already hit by the impact of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. The benchmark Brent oil blend traded at about $62 per barrel on Wednesday, down from about $75 when Mr. Trump announced his global tariffs on Apr. 2. Falling oil revenue, which finances about 40 percent of Russia’s government budget, is already hurting its war economy. The Ministry of Finance this month more than tripled the budget deficit forecast for this year to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product, and slashed its price forecast for Russia’s main type of exported oil from $70 per barrel to $56. Analysts estimate that to cover the rising deficit, the government would have to either spend its remaining rainy day stockpile of foreign reserves and gold, or print more money, which would worsen the already high inflation, now running at about 10 percent. The Kremlin considered, but this week scrapped, a proposal to reduce public spending to compensate for declining oil prices. Mr. Putin has tolerated the central bank’s policy of keeping interest rates at record highs in an attempt to dampen price increases. But a growing chorus of Russian officials and businessmen has blamed the interest rates, kept at 21 percent since October, for wiping out growth without cooling prices, a lose-lose economic scenario known as stagflation. Russian consumers are grumbling about food prices, which rose at an annual rate of more than 12 percent in March, but these concerns have so far have not translated into broader dissatisfaction with the government, said Denis Volkov, head of Moscow-based independent pollster Levada Center. Rising wages, government subsidies for the poor, and decades of living with high inflation mean that in surveys conducted as recently as April more Russians say that their economic situation is improving, rather than worsening, Mr. Volkov said in an interview in Moscow. Two women and a dog walk past a row of banners reading “Victory” in Russian. Friday’s parade will offer Mr. Putin an opportunity to display his country’s military might and global clout in the face of economic uncertainty and flagging advances in the war with Ukraine.Credit...Pavel Bednyakov/Associated Press /div> That political stability will allow Moscow to project national unity in the celebration on Friday, despite the lack of major diplomatic or military breakthroughs in the war. Mr. Putin has regularly used Victory Day, Russia’s main secular holiday, to convey that time is on his side. Russia’s determination and size ground down Germany’s Wehrmacht, Europe’s military hegemon at the time, in World War II, goes the propaganda messaging, and Ukraine’s NATO-supplied and trained forces will eventually follow suit. “These scoundrels had once again united against us,” said Yevgeniy, a Russian soldier who fought in Ukraine until he was wounded in December. He asked to withhold his last name because he is not authorized to speak to the public. “We would’ve been destroyed, wiped out as a nation if we didn’t fight back,” he said, echoing the Kremlin’s unsubstantiated justification for the invasion. “My grandfather fought; I fought: We are the same.” Alina Lobzina contributed reporting from Istanbul. Anatoly Kurmanaev covers Russia and its transformation following the invasion of Ukraine. See more on: Russia-Ukraine War, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine Odesa's Cultural Battle: A push to rename streets and remove statues associated with imperial Russia is dividing Odesa, Ukraine, whose identity is tied up in its history. U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal: The text of the minerals deal signed by the two countries made no mention of the security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought. The agreement could provide a windfall to the U.S., but the resources will be expensive to extract, and any progress is unlikely while the war rages. A Shift Between Presidents Zelensky and Trump: In his zigzagging approach to ending the war in Ukraine, Trump has changed his frustration — for now — from Ukraine’s leader to Vladimir Putin. A Community Blown Apart: The Times talked to more than a dozen family members, neighbors and friends of the victims of the deadliest attack in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, since last summer. ‘We Lost Your Son’: Russia lacks any formal, organized effort to account for legions of missing soldiers. That often leaves relatives in limbo, fending for themselves with scant government information. Xi Jinping’s Visit to Russia: The Chinese leader’s presence alongside Putin at Red Square will inevitably remind the world of China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which could hurt Beijing’s efforts to repair ties with Europe. How We Verify Our Reporting Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details. We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts. Related Content More in Europe Europe Alone and in Shock on V-E Day President Emmanuel Macron of France, President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. and their wives during a D-Day commemoration last year in Normandy. Her Final Wish: A Home for the Son She Never Got to Hold Chrissie Tully in the living room of her council home in Loughrea, County Galway. She hopes to buy the house to keep it in her name, in case her lost son returns. Drama, Fashion and Cigarettes: Internet Casts Pop Gaze on Pope’s Selection Cardinal Francis Xavier Kriengsak Kovithavanij at the Vatican on Monday. One of the world’s longest running elections will play out for a global audience awash in social media. 80 Years After Dachau Concentration Camp Liberation, Witnesses Remember Survivors, liberators, their families and others commemorated the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Dachau concentration camp on Sunday. Tate Modern Is the Museum of the Century (Like It or Not) Editors’ Picks A Grand Comeback for a Grand Seaside Hotel When it opened in 1888, the Hotel del Coronado, in San Diego, was the largest hotel in the world. A Longevity Expert’s 5 Tips for Aging Well ‘Shark Tank’ Star Barbara Corcoran Is Selling Her Dream Penthouse Barbara Corcoran’s penthouse has sweeping views of Central Park as well as a glass solarium-turned-dining room. The solarium and adjacent kitchen have been the site of memorable themed parties. Editors’ Picks ‘Shark Tank’ Star Barbara Corcoran Is Selling Her Dream Penthouse I Prayed After My Friend Was Swept Away on a Lagos Beach Is This the ‘Manosphere’ for Women?