Date: 2025-05-09 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027636
THE UKRAINE WAR
IMPACT OF US ELECTION RESULT!
As the US election nears, anxiety is mounting in Ukraine
The coming United States presidential election will have truly global ramifications.
IMPACT OF US ELECTION RESULT!
As the US election nears, anxiety is mounting in Ukraine
The coming United States presidential election will have truly global ramifications.
Original article: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/as-the-us-election-nears-anxiety-is-mounting-in-ukraine/
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
I am of the opinion that Biden has been a very good American President while Trump was a very bad President. I cannot imagine that a Trump second term will be better than the first, but much more likely to be worse.
But what exactly is worse likely to be?
My guess is that Trump himself will behave more or less the same way as he did the first time he had Presidential power. My take on Trump was that he had a lot of 'half-baked' ideas that he half implemented but not very much that really got done. The one thing that he actually got done was the successful development and manufacture of an effect vaccine against Covid. Even that went off the rails when Trump essentially enabled an 'anti-vax' movement in the USA.
The Trump record in the area of foreign policy is pretty awful with much more history of breaking friendships than making them. The contrast with Biden could not be more stark than in the area of foreign affairs. The world may be better prepared for a 'Trump' America than it was eight years ago, but a world where the USA and Putin's Russia are aligned is difficult to see as a positive outcome. Trump's thinking about Ukraine is of particular concern in part because most of the American electorate has very little knowledge of foreign policy issues.
As an old man born in the UK in 1940, I learned something of the early days of WWII at school. Most of the US population in 1940 wanted President Roosevelt to stay out of a 'European' war, and it was only in December 1941 ... some two years into the European war ... that the United States declared war itself against Germany, precipitated by Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor. From the British point of view, President Roosevelt did all he could to 'help' the British when they were standing firm and alone against the 'axis' powers!
At some level I understand the American electorate. Quite reasonably they do not understand geopolitics very well and they view money spent on military activities outside the USA as negative for their own standard of living. The news media does more to confuse than to clarify with many reporters woefully badly informed about geopolitics themselves. Roosevelt helped Churchill and the UKagainst a malevolent Germany. Biden has helped Ukraine and Europe against a malevolent Russia ... but it is unlikely that Trump will continue this support if Trump gets his way!
For me, there are no indicators that Trump is much better informed on geopolitical realities in 2024 than he was when he was first elected to the Presidency in 2016. The big unknown is to do with the enablers for a Trump administration this time versus last time. It seems like many of the 'insiders' will be more 'Trumpier' than in the last Trump Administration but maybe a bigger community of old fashioned Republicans will be more actively opposed to Trump than they were last time round.
In the recent election Trump won fairly convincingly. The Democrats had difficulty making it clear that their policy formulations would be good for the country as a whole while making it very clear that most rich voters would need to pay more taxes to fund better lives for most everyone else. These rich voters got behind Trump, not Harris. MAGA voters were probably less in 2024 than in previous cycles, but still big enough to win for Trump. But what happens now?
My gut suggests that the rich voter group will be more activist and more visible in the political space and effectively constrain Trump from implementing a lot of his 'nonsense'.
While MAGA violence has played a political role in the past ... January 6th. 2021, for example ... all the key actors are better prepared this time round. My guess ... and it is a guess ... is that MAGA will wither, a revitalised GOP will grow back to some reasonable vibrancy and Democrats will refine their policy playbook so that internal policy difficulties don't derail their election prospects. More than anything else, it is virulent inequality that needs to be addressed in a meaningful way and it is on this that Democrats and MAGA supporters need to come together in common cause because something more than financial greed and financial success should be driving the country ... that is the USA, both in its domestic goals and its international interventions and support!!
Peter Burgess
By Kate Spencer ... Kate Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
As the US election nears, anxiety is mounting in Ukraine
The coming United States presidential election will have truly global ramifications. Few countries have more at stake than Ukraine, which is heavily reliant on continued US support to maintain the fight against Russia’s invasion. As the November 5 vote draws nearer, Ukrainians are anxiously observing the final weeks of the campaign.
Over the past two-and-a-half years of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials, military personnel, and members of the public have gone to considerable lengths to express their gratitude for US support and acknowledge the critical role this has played in their country’s war effort. However, there is now a sense of disquiet over the future of US aid.
Ukrainian concerns are primarily focused on the potential consequences of a Donald Trump victory in the forthcoming election. While Ukrainian officials and commentators generally prefer not to make any public statements about the presidential race in order to avoid accusations of interfering in domestic US politics, many acknowledge a growing nervousness.
Uncertainty in Kyiv over the former president’s position is not a new phenomenon and can be traced back almost a decade to the 2016 US presidential race. “Trump’s view of Ukraine has been persistently negative for the last eight years at least,” Odesa National University Center for International Studies director Volodymyr Dubovyk commented in September 2024. “Much of this view was shaped by people antagonistic to Ukraine.”
Trump’s support for Ukraine while in the White House, which included the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles, did much to rebuild confidence in Kyiv. He also chose not to use his influence over Republican members of Congress to block aid for Ukraine earlier this year. Nevertheless, there is currently considerable unease over the former US president’s vague plans for peace with Russia, which many Ukrainians fear would involve unacceptable territorial concessions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to downplay concerns by referring to Trump’s more troubling campaign trail rhetoric on Ukraine as “election messages.” Despite these efforts, there remains significant uncertainty over what a Trump victory would mean for Ukraine, with some worried that he would be likely to adopt a softer approach toward Russia.
The sense of anxiety in Ukraine has been heightened by recent revelations in a new book by US journalist Bob Woodward, who claims Trump sent COVID-19 testing equipment to Russia in 2020 for President Vladimir Putin’s personal use. The book also alleges that Trump and Putin may have spoken up to seven times since Trump left the White House in 2021, according to an unnamed aide.
Trump campaign officials have denied these accusations. The Kremlin has confirmed that Russia did receive COVID tests from the United States, but has downplayed the significance of the gesture.
Throughout the current election campaign, Trump’s comments on Ukraine have centered on his commitment to ending the current war in one day, while also claiming that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would never have happened if he had remained in office. Speaking alongside Zelenskyy in New York in September, Trump highlighted his “very good relationships” with both Putin and Zelenskyy, while insisting that he could broker a settlement between the two leaders “very quickly.”
Civil Society Europe & Eurasia Human Rights International Norms
Not everyone in Ukraine is convinced a Trump presidency would be bad news for the country. Some prefer to emphasize Trump’s important contribution in April 2024 when he chose not to come out against House Speaker Mike Johnson’s Ukraine aid bill, which likely would have prevented it from passing Congress. Allies of the former president have also said that he is receptive to advice from a number of officials who have cautioned him about the potentially dangerous repercussions of a Russian victory in Ukraine.
Perhaps the most detailed outline of possible future US policy toward Ukraine during a potential second Trump presidency has come from Trump’s vice presidential nominee, Senator JD Vance. In a September 2024 interview, Vance indicated that Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine would involve allowing Russia to remain in control of the Ukrainian regions it currently occupies, establishing a demilitarized zone, and obliging Ukraine to commit to neutrality.
If implemented, such a settlement would likely be seen as a significant victory in Moscow. Critics have warned that it would also jeopardize Ukraine’s future security and could set the stage for further Russian aggression. However, it is important to underline that Vance’s comments have not been endorsed by Trump and do not represent official policy.
Trump’s often evasive statements on Ukraine may suggest that he is keeping his options open for the future. While much of his rhetoric in relation to Ukraine has set off alarm bells in Kyiv, he has also been supportive of US aid to the country and is doubtless aware that many in his own party continue to favor a strong pro-Ukrainian position.
Recent allegations regarding the former US president’s personal relations with Putin will do little to ease existing concerns in Ukraine. If Trump does win a second term next month, his approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may ultimately depend on the advice he receives from those closest to him. Ukrainians will be hoping that bipartisan political backing for their country and continued indications of strong support for Ukraine among the US public will be enough to prevent any major shifts in United States policy.
Kate Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.