Zelenskyy's Secret Deal With Carney Changes Everything for Trump | Anderson Cooper
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Dec 28, 2025
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You know when the headlines hit about Zelenskyy meeting Mark Carney in Canada, the framing was all wrong. They called it a routine diplomatic visit. But this meeting wasn't about Ukraine aid—it was about building a firewall against Donald Trump.
Zelenskyy is heading to sit down with a president who has openly threatened to end the war in 24 hours. So he stops in Ottawa and meets with Mark Carney—Canada's former central banker. That's the signal. This is about economic defense, about leveraging international alliances to counter an anticipated threat from the United States.
In this video, we break down:
- Why the timing of this meeting matters
- Mark Carney's role as Canada's structural leverage
- How Ukraine becomes Canada's economic diversification strategy
- The three-way dynamic that changes everything for Trump
- What this means for the future of the US-Canada relationship
This is a masterclass in how middle powers navigate great power competition—not by choosing sides, but by building webs of relationships that increase their room to maneuver.
Subscribe for deep analysis on geopolitics, trade, and the structural forces reshaping North American relations.
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
Transcript
- 0:00
- You know, when the headlines hit about
- Zilinsky meeting Mark Carney in Canada,
- the framing was all wrong. They called
- it a routine diplomatic visit, a stop on
- the way to the G7. But I want to start
- by slowing this story down because the
- headline completely misses the real
- story. The real story was the strategic
- timing and the specific players
- involved. This wasn't about Ukraine aid.
- It was about building a firewall against
- Donald Trump. Think about the timing.
- Silinski is on his way to sit down with
- a president who has openly threatened to
- end the war in 24 hours. A president who
- has questioned the very premise of
- continued support and he stops in
- Ottawa. But he doesn't just meet with
- Prime Minister Trudeau. He meets with
- Mark Carney. That's the signal. This was
- a meeting about economic defense, about
- leveraging international alliances to
- counter a specific anticipated threat
- from the United States. Zilinsk's
- immediate desperation for predictable
- partners met Carney's long-term
- 1:01
- institutional foresight and that
- combination changes the entire dynamic
- for the incoming administration. To
- understand why this meeting matters, you
- have to understand the countdown that's
- underway. Donald Trump has been entirely
- consistent about one thing. His
- intention to impose across the board
- tariffs potentially 10% on all imports
- if he returns to office. For most
- countries, that's a problem. For Canada,
- it's an existential threat to the
- economic model of the nation. The United
- States and Canada have the most
- integrated bilateral relationship in the
- world. Over2 billion dollars in trade
- crosses that border every single day.
- It's not just goods, its supply chains,
- its auto manufacturing, its energy, its
- agriculture. They are fundamentally
- entwined. We've seen this movie before
- with the renegotiation of NAFTA under
- the threat of tariffs. That was a
- brutal, drawn out process that created
- massive uncertainty, but that was a
- 2:02
- negotiation over a trade deal. What
- Trump is now proposing is not a
- negotiation. It's a blanket attacks on
- the entire trading relationship. And
- this gets to the fundamental question
- that Canada is now forced to confront.
- What is the cost of national sovereignty
- versus the cost of economic stability?
- For decades, the answer was that deep
- integration with the US economy was the
- foundation of Canadian prosperity. But
- that calculation only works if the
- partner is predictable, if the rules are
- stable. The threat of arbitrary
- unilateral tariff shatters that
- predictability. Traditional diplomacy,
- the kind based on shared history and
- values, doesn't work with a
- transactional approach that views
- alliances as a burden. So Canada's left
- with a choice. Absorb the volatility or
- build new structures to mitigate it. The
- meeting with Sinski is a clear signal of
- which path they're choosing. Which
- brings us to the man in the middle, Mark
- Carney. On the surface, sending a former
- 3:01
- central banker to meet a wartime
- president seems strange, but that's
- because we're still thinking in terms of
- political power, not structural
- leverage. Carney's value isn't in his
- political connections, is in his
- credibility and his understanding of
- systemic risk. Carney's career is a
- masterclass in navigating volatility. He
- was governor of the Bank of Canada
- during the 2008 financial crisis, then
- governor of the Bank of England during
- the Brexit referendum. He understands in
- a way few others do how political shocks
- translate into market chaos and how that
- chaos acts as attacks on ordinary people
- and businesses. He doesn't deal in the
- day-to-day theater of politics. He deals
- in the underlying architecture of the
- global economy. That's why Trudeau sent
- him instead of a traditional diplomat.
- This represents a fundamental pivot for
- Canada. The old strategy was appeasement
- trying to manage the relationship
- through personal diplomacy with the
- White House. The new strategy is to
- 4:00
- build alternative architecture. Carney
- is the perfect instrument for this. His
- work in climate finance, mobilizing
- trillions of dollars for the transition,
- is about creating new economic
- gravitational poles outside of
- traditional systems. He's applying that
- same logic to geopolitics.
- By engaging with Zalinski, he he's not
- just talking about reconstruction. He's
- talking about creating a partnership
- that offers Canada economic
- diversification and Ukraine a source of
- capital and stability that isn't subject
- to American political winds. It's about
- replacing a volatile bilateral
- relationship with a more stable
- multilateral web. The Shield is in a
- stronger wall with the US. It's more
- doors to the rest of the world and
- Carney holds the keys. But here is where
- the story gets interesting. Why Ukraine?
- On the surface, it looks like a nation
- reliant on Western aid, a supplicant.
- But that's the old story. The new story,
- the one Carney and Zilinsky are writing,
- 5:01
- casts Ukraine in a completely different
- light as a strategic partner for
- economic diversification. Ukraine is
- transforming from an aid recipient into
- a key piece of Canada's economic defense
- strategy. Let's talk about what this
- actually looks like in terms of real
- tangible economics. The first pillar is
- agriculture. You might remember the
- Black Sea grain deal and the global food
- price instability that followed its
- collapse. Ukraine is a bread basket and
- its ability to get grain to market is a
- cornerstone of global food security. For
- Canada, another agricultural powerhouse.
- This isn't just about humanitarian
- concern. It's about understanding and
- co-opting alternative supply chains. By
- partnering with Ukraine on agricultural
- logistics and infrastructure, Canada
- insulates itself from potential
- disruptions and gains leverage in global
- food markets. It's about building a
- system that doesn't solely run through
- Chicago. The second and more critical
- 6:00
- pillar is energy security and critical
- minerals. The war has exposed the
- profound danger of reliance on
- adversarial nations for energy and the
- essential components of the modern
- economy. Ukraine possesses some of the
- largest reserves of critical minerals in
- Europe. Lithium, graphite, titanium,
- everything needed for batteries,
- advanced electronics, and defense
- systems. Right now, the world is
- scrambling to diversify away from
- Chinese dominance. in these sectors.
- Ukraine represents a massive untapped
- reservoir of these resources located in
- a country fiercely aligned with
- Westerner interests.
- This is where Car's climate finance
- expertise becomes a geopolitical tool.
- The reconstruction of Ukraine isn't just
- about rebuilding hospitals and schools.
- It's about building a 21st century
- energy and critical mineral
- infrastructure from the ground up. We're
- talking about billions, eventually
- trillions of dollars in investment. By
- getting in on the ground floor, Canada
- 7:00
- and financers like Carney can help shape
- an economic sphere that operates with
- Western standards, Western capital, and
- crucially outside the immediate shadow
- of both Russian coercion and Chinese
- economic statecraft. For Zalinskia, the
- appeal is obvious. He needs partners who
- are in it for the long haul, who view
- Ukraine as an investment, not a charity
- case. The volatility of American
- political support makes Canada with its
- institutional approach symbolized by
- Carney a much more attractive long-term
- anchor. So, let's put these pieces
- together. The meeting between Zalinsky
- and Carney wasn't a bilateral
- discussion. It was a three-way
- negotiation with Donald Trump as the
- invisible but dominant third party in
- the room. Every point on the agenda was
- filtered through the lens of what
- happens when he arrives. This changes
- the power dynamics completely. The
- solidarity between Canada and Ukraine is
- now being weaponized as structural
- leverage against American unilateralism.
- 8:00
- The traditional model was that the US
- sets the terms and Canada as a junior
- partner negotiates for exemptions.
- That's a client state relationship. What
- we're seeing now is the early stages of
- flipping that script by creating facts
- on the ground by cementing deep economic
- and strategic ties with a nation that
- holds immense geopolitical importance
- for Washington. Canada is altering the
- costbenefit analysis for a Trump
- administration.
- Think about that logic for a moment. The
- United States has spent two years and
- tens of billions of dollars bolstering
- Ukraine as a frontline state against
- Russian aggression. That entire strategy
- relies on a coherent Western alliance.
- If a Trump administration were to impose
- devastating tariffs on Canada, it
- wouldn't just be a trade dispute between
- two allies. It would force Canada to
- recalculate every aspect of its foreign
- policy, including its level of
- cooperation on Ukraine. Suddenly, the US
- would be actively undermining its own
- 9:00
- strategic goals by punishing a country
- that is crucial to maintaining a unified
- front. The US needs a stable,
- predictable northern border far more
- than Canada needs. A partnership defined
- by constant uncertainty and punitive
- measures. This transforms the entire
- special relationship is no longer a
- given. It becomes conditional and the
- leverage is no longer just about
- crossber trade. It's about global
- stability. Canon is essentially saying
- our cooperation on issues you care about
- is contingent on you not blowing up our
- economic model. It makes the
- relationship a three-way dynamic where
- actions in one arena trade have
- immediate and profound consequences in
- another geopolitics. This is a level of
- strategic complexity that a purely
- transactional approach is illquipped to
- handle. It's the difference between
- playing checkers and playing chess.
- Canada through Carney is playing chess
- and they just made a move that boxes the
- king. This entire maneuver hinges on a
- 10:02
- single powerful contrast. Uh the
- contrast between institutional
- competence and personalistic volatility.
- Mark Carney is the embodiment of the
- former. He represents predictability
- process and a deep-seated understanding
- of how systems actually work. He's not a
- politician making promises. He's a
- central banker who understands that
- trust is the fundamental currency of the
- global economy and trust is built on
- predictability.
- Now contrast that with the approach
- Donald Trump represents is dealmaking
- based on personal relationships on
- dramatic gestures on transaction
- bytransaction negotiations where today's
- ally can be tomorrow with s enemy based
- on a perceived slight for capital
- markets for long-term investment that
- volatility is poison. It's what I've
- called the chaos tax. The hidden cost
- that businesses and consumers pay for
- political instability. A company looking
- to build a factory or a pension fund
- 11:00
- allocating billions for infrastructure
- will always choose boring competence
- over exciting drama. The drama might be
- profitable for a few individuals in the
- short term, but it's catastrophic for
- the long-term planning that economies
- are built on. Carney's gambit is to make
- that contrast the central fault line of
- the new relationship by positioning
- Canada as the anchor of institutional
- stability. He's not just defending
- against tariffs. He's appealing to a
- much broader audience. He's speaking to
- governors on both sides of the border
- whose economies depend on crossber
- trade. He's speaking to CEOs who need
- supply chains that don't rupture every
- election cycle. and he's speaking to
- other US allies in Europe, in Asia, who
- are watching this unfold with deep
- anxiety. They're all asking the same
- question. If this can happen to Canada,
- what does that mean for us? Carney is
- offering an alternative model, a
- coalition of the predictable, it's a
- 12:00
- long game approach that doesn't try to
- win the news cycle, but instead aims to
- win the confidence of the capital that
- ultimately dictates a nation's economic
- destiny. This brings us to the core
- calculation every nation faces but which
- is now acute for Canada. The balance
- between sovereignty and stability. For
- generations, Canada's stability was
- purchased through a certain surrender of
- sovereignty. Deeper integration with the
- United States meant aligning
- regulations, following Washington's lead
- on foreign policy, and accepting a
- degree of dependency. The payoff was
- unprecedented prosperity and security.
- That was the bargain. But a bargain
- requires both parties to uphold their
- end. The threat of arbitrary punitive
- tariffs fundamentally breaks that
- bargain. It tells Canada that its
- prosperity is now contingent on the
- whims of a single foreign leader. So the
- country is forced to recalculate what is
- the true cost of sovereignty and what is
- 13:00
- the true cost of the dependency that
- once guaranteed stability. What we are
- witnessing is Canada's quiet but firm
- assertion of an independent foreign
- policy not as an act of defiance but as
- an act of economic necessity. This isn't
- about leaving the alliance. It's about
- redefining it on terms that protect the
- national interest. The partnership with
- Ukraine is a textbook example of how a
- middle power can navigate great power
- competition. It's not about choosing
- sides between the US and China or
- Russia. is about building a web of
- relationships that increases its own
- room to maneuver. By becoming
- indispensable to Ukraine's future,
- Canada makes itself more valuable to the
- United States. But on its own terms,
- this moment represents a fundamental
- recalibration of the entire
- transatlantic relationship. The old
- order was based on US leadership and
- allied followership. The new reality
- which this meeting perfectly
- encapsulates is one ofworked security
- 14:02
- and economic interdependence. The US
- needs Canada's cooperation on
- continental defense on Ukraine on
- managing the relationship with China.
- Canada is now demonstrating that this
- cooperation cannot be taken for granted
- if the economic foundation of the
- country is under threat. The sovereignty
- versus stability calculation has
- flipped. The cost of total dependency on
- an unpredictable partner is now seen as
- higher than the cost of asserting
- sovereignty to build a more diversified
- and therefore more stable economic
- future. It's a risky move, but the
- alternative waiting passively for the
- axe to fall is now seen as the greater
- risk. But let's bring this down from the
- level of grand strategy to what it means
- for the average person. Tariffs are
- often discussed as political theater,
- but they have very real and very
- personal economic consequences. That 10%
- tariff Trump proposes isn't just a
- number on a policy paper. It's a direct
- 15:00
- tax on the cost of living. It's the
- chaos tax in its most tangible form. For
- an American family, it means higher
- prices at the grocery store, at the car
- dealership, and on the energy bill. The
- supply chains are so integrated that a
- tariff on Canadian goods doesn't just
- make Canadian products more expensive.
- It makes anything that uses Canadian
- components more expensive. It disrupts
- the finely tuned logistics that keep
- shelves stocked and prices stable. For a
- Canadian, the threat is even more
- direct. It's as a potential blow to
- entire industries, to jobs, to the value
- of their pensions. The hidden cost of
- this political volatility is paid by
- household budgets on both sides of the
- border. The irony is that a stable
- predictable Canada US relationship is
- one of the single greatest economic
- advantages for both populations and has
- been risked for a political headline.
- What Canada's executing here is a
- blueprint for other nations watching
- this unfold. The lesson is that in a
- world of great power, volatility,
- 16:01
- structural leverage outweighs dramatic
- gestures. The playbook is clear. You
- don't fight volatility with more
- volatility. You counter it by building
- institutional strength and diversified
- alliances that create facts on the
- ground. This maneuver exposes the
- limitations of pure bilateralism. The
- old model where a country negotiates
- one-on-one with a larger power as a
- recipe for being overwhelmed. The new
- model is about creating a network, a web
- of interests, where your value is
- multi-dimensional. For other US allies,
- the takeaway is that credibility isn't
- just about military spending. It's about
- becoming an indispensable node in a
- system that the larger power itself
- relies upon. Carney's potential legacy
- here extends far beyond climate finance.
- It's demonstrating how to wield economic
- statecraft to protect national
- sovereignty in an age of disruption. The
- long-term consequence for US leadership
- credibility is profound. If your closest
- allies feel the need to build firewalls
- 17:01
- against you, the very idea of leadership
- collapses into mere coercion. This
- meeting signals the end of automatic
- alignment. Structural leverage is now
- the currency of diplomacy and
- predictability is the new superpower.
- This rebalancing was inevitable the
- moment volatility became a central tool
- of statecraft. I'm curious how you're
- seeing this power shift. Share your
- thoughts in the comments.
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