TRUMP in DISBELIEF as Tariffs TRIGGER MASS EXIT — Allies BOYCOTT, Factories HALT, Oil EXITS!
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Dec 30, 2025
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Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
Transcript
- 0:02
- The central assumption behind Donald
- Trump's tariff strategy was simple.
- America was big enough to win by force.
- That allies would complain, absorb the
- pain, and eventually fall back in line.
- That short-term disruption would deliver
- long-term dominance.
- Nearly a year into Trump's second term,
- that assumption is collapsing under its
- own weight.
- Instead of compliance, there's
- withdrawal. Instead of resilience,
- there's replacement.
- And instead of allies absorbing the
- costs, they're reorganizing their
- economies to depend less on the United
- States.
- Early in 20 to25, when Trump doubled
- down on tariffs under the familiar
- banner of make America great again,
- supporters framed it as a necessary
- shock to the system.
- Pain now, strength later.
- Critics warned of retaliation, but those
- warnings were often brushed aside as
- alarmist or partisan.
- The assumption was that America's size
- would absorb the impact, that allies
- 1:00
- would grumble but ultimately comply, and
- that domestic producers would emerge
- stronger.
- Instead, nearly a year on, the outcome
- has been the reverse. The US is
- absorbing real economic damage. Allies
- are not complying, but adapting and
- pulling away, and many domestic
- producers are weaker, not stronger than
- before.
- To understand that, we need to look at
- the numbers first in North America, then
- in Europe, and see what tariffs are
- actually doing to the US economy.
- Let's start with Canada.
- The turning point in US Canada trade
- wasn't just a policy memo or a tariff
- percentage. It was tone.
- Trump's suggestion that Canada could one
- day become the 51st state landed in a
- country that already felt economically
- targeted.
- For Canadians, that comment crystallized
- something deeper than trade friction.
- It turned irritation into resolve, and
- that resolve quickly transformed into
- one of the most coordinated consumer
- responses North America has seen in
- decades.
- 2:00
- What followed became known as the elbows
- up movement, a phrase borrowed from
- hockey legend Gordy How, but repurposed
- as a declaration of economic defiance.
- Canadians didn't just complain, they
- acted. Over the course of 2025, more
- than 1.4 million people joined Facebook
- groups dedicated to avoiding US
- products.
- Apps designed to identify American goods
- surged in downloads. People made
- deliberate choices to redirect spending
- toward Canadian or non- US alternatives.
- It wasn't a flash protest. It was
- sustained, methodical, and deeply
- personal.
- The first major shock wave hit American
- alcohol producers.
- In February, Canadian provinces pulled
- millions of dollars worth of US wine and
- spirits off store shelves in direct
- response to Trump's 25% tariff on
- Canadian goods.
- At the time, some observers assumed it
- would be symbolic and short-lived.
- Instead, it turned devastatingly real.
- According to the Distilled Spirits
- Council of the United States, overall
- 3:01
- exports of American spirits fell 9% in
- the second quarter of 2025, compared
- with the same period the year before.
- But that headline number hides the true
- scale of the problem.
- Exports of US spirits to Canada fell by
- a staggering 85% in that same quarter,
- dropping below 10 million US.
- For context, Canada has historically
- been one of the most important foreign
- markets for American spirits,
- particularly whiskey.
- The council's data paints an even more
- detailed picture.
- Sales of US spirits in Canada declined
- 68% in April alone.
- During that same period, sales of
- Canadian spirits rose about 3.6% and
- sales of other imported spirits also
- increased by roughly the same amount.
- In other words, the demand didn't
- disappear, it shifted. American brands
- weren't just losing sales temporarily,
- they were being replaced.
- From January through September, bottled
- bourbon exports to Canada collapsed from
- 4:01
- 41.3 million units the previous year to
- just 16.4 4 million units, a drop of
- around 60%.
- Rum exports to Canada fell 49%.
- Brandy exports dropped 67%.
- Gin saw a 76% decline. Vodka and
- cordials each fell by 71%.
- These are not marginal changes. These
- are structural shocks to an industry
- that was already facing stagnating
- domestic demand and record high
- inventory levels.
- For US whiskey producers, especially
- bourbon makers in Kentucky, the
- international market has become critical
- in recent years, precisely because
- domestic growth has slowed.
- When that international lifeline frayed,
- the impact rippled backward through
- supply chains,
- production halts, storage costs, delayed
- expansion plans,
- jobs that were supposed to be protected
- by tariffs suddenly looked far less
- secure.
- 5:01
- This is where the story stops being
- abstract and becomes impossible to
- ignore.
- In December, Jim Beam, one of the most
- iconic names in American bourbon,
- confirmed it is halting production at
- its flagship Claremont, Kentucky
- distillery for all of 2026.
- This isn't a small facility or a
- symbolic pause.
- The Claremont distillery produces
- roughly onethird of Jim Beam's total
- annual output and is responsible for
- major brands including Knob Creek,
- Bakers, Bookers, and Basil Haydens.
- And alcohol was just the beginning.
- Travel was next and here the numbers are
- even harder to ignore.
- Canadians are not just frequent visitors
- to the United States. They are its
- largest group of international tourists.
- In 2024, Canadians accounted for 28% of
- the 72.4 million international visitors
- to the US. That means nearly one in
- three foreign tourists was Canadian.
- 6:00
- When that group pulls back, the effect
- is immediate.
- A US travel association report forecasts
- that international tourism spending in
- the United States would decline by 3.2%
- 2% in 2025, amounting to a loss of $5.7
- billion US compared with the previous
- year.
- The association was explicit about the
- cause.
- The decline was largely driven by fewer
- Canadian visitors, a trend that began as
- soon as Trump returned to office in
- January.
- Statistics Canada data confirms just how
- sharp the drop has been. In November,
- Canadian resident return trips from the
- United States by air fell 19.3% compared
- with November 2024.
- That's nearly one in five flights that
- didn't happen.
- Even more striking, Canadian resident
- return trips by automobile dropped 28.6%
- year-over-year.
- That marked the 11th consecutive month
- of declines.
- 7:00
- These aren't abstract losses.
- Border towns depend on Canadian traffic.
- Hotels, restaurants, gas stations,
- outlet malls, ski resorts, and
- entertainment venues all feel it when
- cars stop crossing.
- In states like New York, Michigan,
- Washington, and Maine, entire local
- economies are built around that flow.
- When it slows, businesses close earlier,
- cut staff, or shut their doors
- altogether.
- The political consequences have become
- impossible to ignore.
- A report prepared by the Democratic
- Minority of the US Congress's Joint
- Economic Committee warned that the
- sustained drop in Canadian tourism is
- hurting American businesses and putting
- jobs at risk. Senator Maggie Hassan of
- New Hampshire summed it up bluntly,
- saying that Trump's reckless tariffs and
- needless provocations were straining the
- close ties that bind the two nations.
- Then there is Florida orange juice,
- perhaps the most symbolically targeted
- product of all.
- 8:00
- Canada's counter tariffs zeroed in on
- fresh orange juice from Florida, Trump's
- home state, and the location of Mara
- Lago. The timing was almost surgical.
- The tariffs went into effect in March,
- and almost immediately, the monthly
- value of US shipments of fresh orange
- juice to Canada began to collapse.
- By June, that value had fallen to its
- lowest level in more than 20 years,
- according to data from both the US
- Census Bureau and Statistics Canada.
- Even after Canada lifted most counter
- tariffs on September Farn, the damage
- lingered.
- In September, the total import value of
- fresh orange juice from the US into
- Canada was $7.45 million Canadian, down
- from $12.6 million Canadian in the same
- month the previous year.
- That's a drop of more than 40% months
- after the formal trade barriers were
- removed.
- Experts told CBC News that the decline
- wasn't just about tariffs.
- It was about consumer behavior.
- 9:01
- Many Canadian businesses stopped serving
- orange juice altogether as they
- rethought their relationship with US
- products.
- Others switched suppliers. Once again,
- habits changed and changed habits don't
- automatically revert.
- The domestic picture in Florida hasn't
- been comforting either. According to
- trade publication Citrus Industry, total
- orange juice gallon sales for the 4-week
- period through November 29th were down
- 11.4% compared with the same period the
- previous year.
- At the same time, prices were up 16.2%.
- Inflation played a role, but the report
- also pointed to consumer concern over
- high food prices and shifting demand.
- The result is a squeeze from both sides,
- weaker export markets, and softer
- domestic sales. And Canada wasn't the
- end of it. European partners watched
- closely.
- For years, many had tolerated US
- unpredictability because the market was
- simply too important to ignore. But as
- 10:00
- trade tensions escalated and rhetoric
- hardened, diversification accelerated.
- Some European buyers reduced reliance on
- US suppliers. Others delayed contracts.
- Still others sought alternatives that
- felt more stable. American businesses
- that once assumed loyalty now find
- themselves competing not just on price
- and quality, but on trust.
- Beyond the very visible grassroots
- boycotts by citizens that have hit US
- spirits, tourism, and agricultural
- exports, there are broader economic
- shifts underway involving government
- policies by US allies that are also
- reshaping markets in ways that weren't
- expected early in 2025.
- One of the clearest examples comes from
- the energy sector.
- Canada has traditionally been the
- biggest exporter of oil to the United
- States. In 2024, it supplied around 70%
- of the hydrocarbons imported by the US,
- including about 61.7%
- of crude oil and virtually all natural
- gas imported into the country.
- 11:01
- That heavy reliance has been a pillar of
- North American energy integration for
- decades. But over the last 12 months,
- policy shifts and market conditions have
- accelerated Canadian efforts to
- diversify its energy export routes
- beyond the United States.
- Projects aimed at bringing Canadian oil
- to global markets, particularly via
- expanded pipelines to the Pacific coast,
- have seen renewed political and
- strategic emphasis in Ottawa, reversing
- years of debate over export
- infrastructure.
- As part of this effort, Canada approved
- new pipeline expansions at the end of
- 2025, specifically designed to boost
- exports from Alberta's oil sands to Asia
- and other non- US markets, part of a
- strategy to reduce trade dependency on
- its southern neighbor.
- The logic is straightforward. By
- enabling Canadian crude to be shipped
- directly to Europe and Asia, Ottawa
- hopes to cushion the impact of US
- tariffs and political uncertainty. But
- the consequence for the US oil refining
- sector may be significant.
- If Canada successfully diverts even a
- 12:02
- fraction of its export flows away from
- the United States, which currently takes
- the vast majority of its crude US
- refineries optimized for Canadian heavy
- oil, could face tighter supplies and
- higher costs for feed stock.
- A second government-driven shift
- affecting the US economy is the surge in
- defense spending among NATO allies in
- 2025. much of it driven by pressure from
- Washington to increase burden sharing.
- In June 2025, NATO leaders agreed to a
- landmark plan aiming for allies to
- invest 5% of their GDP in defense and
- security related expenditures by 2035, a
- massive increase from the long-standing
- 2% guideline.
- Canada, for its part, joined this new
- commitment and is planning to allocate
- 3.5% of GDP to core military
- capabilities and an additional 1.5% to
- related investments, channeling
- resources into domestic defense
- industries rather than US suppliers.
- Meanwhile, European NATO countries have
- 13:01
- collectively pushed defense budgets
- higher as well.
- EU defense expenditure in 2025 is
- estimated at around $381 billion, an 11%
- increase over the previous year and
- nearly a 63% jump since 20 to20 with
- procurement and R&D spending expanding
- rapidly.
- The strategic intent behind these
- increases is not only securitydriven but
- also industrial governments want to
- build and sustain their own defense
- manufacturing bases.
- That means billions of dollars that
- might once have gone to US arms makers
- are now being invested in European and
- Canadian defense sectors.
- If tariffs were supposed to restore
- American strength, why do so many allies
- now seem determined to need America
- less?
- If pressure was meant to bring partners
- back into line, why are consumers,
- governments, and industries quietly
- walking away instead?
- And if this is what winning a trade war
- looks like, who exactly is losing?
- That brings us to a harder question.
- 14:03
- If tariffs were meant to restore
- American leverage, why do the numbers
- show allies adapting instead of
- complying? And if this is what winning a
- trade war looks like, who is actually
- paying the price?
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