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US ECONOMIC CRISIS
TRUMP SETTING STAGE FOR US COLLAPSE ... Fastepo

TRUMP in DISBELIEF as Tariffs TRIGGER MASS EXIT — Allies BOYCOTT, Factories HALT, Oil EXITS!


Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrVMa1vFQKg
TRUMP in DISBELIEF as Tariffs TRIGGER MASS EXIT — Allies BOYCOTT, Factories HALT, Oil EXITS!

Fastepo

Dec 30, 2025

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Peter Burgess COMMENTARY



Peter Burgess
Transcript
  • 0:02
  • The central assumption behind Donald
  • Trump's tariff strategy was simple.
  • America was big enough to win by force.
  • That allies would complain, absorb the
  • pain, and eventually fall back in line.
  • That short-term disruption would deliver
  • long-term dominance.
  • Nearly a year into Trump's second term,
  • that assumption is collapsing under its
  • own weight.
  • Instead of compliance, there's
  • withdrawal. Instead of resilience,
  • there's replacement.
  • And instead of allies absorbing the
  • costs, they're reorganizing their
  • economies to depend less on the United
  • States.
  • Early in 20 to25, when Trump doubled
  • down on tariffs under the familiar
  • banner of make America great again,
  • supporters framed it as a necessary
  • shock to the system.
  • Pain now, strength later.
  • Critics warned of retaliation, but those
  • warnings were often brushed aside as
  • alarmist or partisan.
  • The assumption was that America's size
  • would absorb the impact, that allies

  • 1:00
  • would grumble but ultimately comply, and
  • that domestic producers would emerge
  • stronger.
  • Instead, nearly a year on, the outcome
  • has been the reverse. The US is
  • absorbing real economic damage. Allies
  • are not complying, but adapting and
  • pulling away, and many domestic
  • producers are weaker, not stronger than
  • before.
  • To understand that, we need to look at
  • the numbers first in North America, then
  • in Europe, and see what tariffs are
  • actually doing to the US economy.
  • Let's start with Canada.
  • The turning point in US Canada trade
  • wasn't just a policy memo or a tariff
  • percentage. It was tone.
  • Trump's suggestion that Canada could one
  • day become the 51st state landed in a
  • country that already felt economically
  • targeted.
  • For Canadians, that comment crystallized
  • something deeper than trade friction.
  • It turned irritation into resolve, and
  • that resolve quickly transformed into
  • one of the most coordinated consumer
  • responses North America has seen in
  • decades.

  • 2:00
  • What followed became known as the elbows
  • up movement, a phrase borrowed from
  • hockey legend Gordy How, but repurposed
  • as a declaration of economic defiance.
  • Canadians didn't just complain, they
  • acted. Over the course of 2025, more
  • than 1.4 million people joined Facebook
  • groups dedicated to avoiding US
  • products.
  • Apps designed to identify American goods
  • surged in downloads. People made
  • deliberate choices to redirect spending
  • toward Canadian or non- US alternatives.
  • It wasn't a flash protest. It was
  • sustained, methodical, and deeply
  • personal.
  • The first major shock wave hit American
  • alcohol producers.
  • In February, Canadian provinces pulled
  • millions of dollars worth of US wine and
  • spirits off store shelves in direct
  • response to Trump's 25% tariff on
  • Canadian goods.
  • At the time, some observers assumed it
  • would be symbolic and short-lived.
  • Instead, it turned devastatingly real.
  • According to the Distilled Spirits
  • Council of the United States, overall

  • 3:01
  • exports of American spirits fell 9% in
  • the second quarter of 2025, compared
  • with the same period the year before.
  • But that headline number hides the true
  • scale of the problem.
  • Exports of US spirits to Canada fell by
  • a staggering 85% in that same quarter,
  • dropping below 10 million US.
  • For context, Canada has historically
  • been one of the most important foreign
  • markets for American spirits,
  • particularly whiskey.
  • The council's data paints an even more
  • detailed picture.
  • Sales of US spirits in Canada declined
  • 68% in April alone.
  • During that same period, sales of
  • Canadian spirits rose about 3.6% and
  • sales of other imported spirits also
  • increased by roughly the same amount.
  • In other words, the demand didn't
  • disappear, it shifted. American brands
  • weren't just losing sales temporarily,
  • they were being replaced.
  • From January through September, bottled
  • bourbon exports to Canada collapsed from

  • 4:01
  • 41.3 million units the previous year to
  • just 16.4 4 million units, a drop of
  • around 60%.
  • Rum exports to Canada fell 49%.
  • Brandy exports dropped 67%.
  • Gin saw a 76% decline. Vodka and
  • cordials each fell by 71%.
  • These are not marginal changes. These
  • are structural shocks to an industry
  • that was already facing stagnating
  • domestic demand and record high
  • inventory levels.
  • For US whiskey producers, especially
  • bourbon makers in Kentucky, the
  • international market has become critical
  • in recent years, precisely because
  • domestic growth has slowed.
  • When that international lifeline frayed,
  • the impact rippled backward through
  • supply chains,
  • production halts, storage costs, delayed
  • expansion plans,
  • jobs that were supposed to be protected
  • by tariffs suddenly looked far less
  • secure.

  • 5:01
  • This is where the story stops being
  • abstract and becomes impossible to
  • ignore.
  • In December, Jim Beam, one of the most
  • iconic names in American bourbon,
  • confirmed it is halting production at
  • its flagship Claremont, Kentucky
  • distillery for all of 2026.
  • This isn't a small facility or a
  • symbolic pause.
  • The Claremont distillery produces
  • roughly onethird of Jim Beam's total
  • annual output and is responsible for
  • major brands including Knob Creek,
  • Bakers, Bookers, and Basil Haydens.
  • And alcohol was just the beginning.
  • Travel was next and here the numbers are
  • even harder to ignore.
  • Canadians are not just frequent visitors
  • to the United States. They are its
  • largest group of international tourists.
  • In 2024, Canadians accounted for 28% of
  • the 72.4 million international visitors
  • to the US. That means nearly one in
  • three foreign tourists was Canadian.

  • 6:00
  • When that group pulls back, the effect
  • is immediate.
  • A US travel association report forecasts
  • that international tourism spending in
  • the United States would decline by 3.2%
  • 2% in 2025, amounting to a loss of $5.7
  • billion US compared with the previous
  • year.
  • The association was explicit about the
  • cause.
  • The decline was largely driven by fewer
  • Canadian visitors, a trend that began as
  • soon as Trump returned to office in
  • January.
  • Statistics Canada data confirms just how
  • sharp the drop has been. In November,
  • Canadian resident return trips from the
  • United States by air fell 19.3% compared
  • with November 2024.
  • That's nearly one in five flights that
  • didn't happen.
  • Even more striking, Canadian resident
  • return trips by automobile dropped 28.6%
  • year-over-year.
  • That marked the 11th consecutive month
  • of declines.

  • 7:00
  • These aren't abstract losses.
  • Border towns depend on Canadian traffic.
  • Hotels, restaurants, gas stations,
  • outlet malls, ski resorts, and
  • entertainment venues all feel it when
  • cars stop crossing.
  • In states like New York, Michigan,
  • Washington, and Maine, entire local
  • economies are built around that flow.
  • When it slows, businesses close earlier,
  • cut staff, or shut their doors
  • altogether.
  • The political consequences have become
  • impossible to ignore.
  • A report prepared by the Democratic
  • Minority of the US Congress's Joint
  • Economic Committee warned that the
  • sustained drop in Canadian tourism is
  • hurting American businesses and putting
  • jobs at risk. Senator Maggie Hassan of
  • New Hampshire summed it up bluntly,
  • saying that Trump's reckless tariffs and
  • needless provocations were straining the
  • close ties that bind the two nations.
  • Then there is Florida orange juice,
  • perhaps the most symbolically targeted
  • product of all.

  • 8:00
  • Canada's counter tariffs zeroed in on
  • fresh orange juice from Florida, Trump's
  • home state, and the location of Mara
  • Lago. The timing was almost surgical.
  • The tariffs went into effect in March,
  • and almost immediately, the monthly
  • value of US shipments of fresh orange
  • juice to Canada began to collapse.
  • By June, that value had fallen to its
  • lowest level in more than 20 years,
  • according to data from both the US
  • Census Bureau and Statistics Canada.
  • Even after Canada lifted most counter
  • tariffs on September Farn, the damage
  • lingered.
  • In September, the total import value of
  • fresh orange juice from the US into
  • Canada was $7.45 million Canadian, down
  • from $12.6 million Canadian in the same
  • month the previous year.
  • That's a drop of more than 40% months
  • after the formal trade barriers were
  • removed.
  • Experts told CBC News that the decline
  • wasn't just about tariffs.
  • It was about consumer behavior.

  • 9:01
  • Many Canadian businesses stopped serving
  • orange juice altogether as they
  • rethought their relationship with US
  • products.
  • Others switched suppliers. Once again,
  • habits changed and changed habits don't
  • automatically revert.
  • The domestic picture in Florida hasn't
  • been comforting either. According to
  • trade publication Citrus Industry, total
  • orange juice gallon sales for the 4-week
  • period through November 29th were down
  • 11.4% compared with the same period the
  • previous year.
  • At the same time, prices were up 16.2%.
  • Inflation played a role, but the report
  • also pointed to consumer concern over
  • high food prices and shifting demand.
  • The result is a squeeze from both sides,
  • weaker export markets, and softer
  • domestic sales. And Canada wasn't the
  • end of it. European partners watched
  • closely.
  • For years, many had tolerated US
  • unpredictability because the market was
  • simply too important to ignore. But as

  • 10:00
  • trade tensions escalated and rhetoric
  • hardened, diversification accelerated.
  • Some European buyers reduced reliance on
  • US suppliers. Others delayed contracts.
  • Still others sought alternatives that
  • felt more stable. American businesses
  • that once assumed loyalty now find
  • themselves competing not just on price
  • and quality, but on trust.
  • Beyond the very visible grassroots
  • boycotts by citizens that have hit US
  • spirits, tourism, and agricultural
  • exports, there are broader economic
  • shifts underway involving government
  • policies by US allies that are also
  • reshaping markets in ways that weren't
  • expected early in 2025.
  • One of the clearest examples comes from
  • the energy sector.
  • Canada has traditionally been the
  • biggest exporter of oil to the United
  • States. In 2024, it supplied around 70%
  • of the hydrocarbons imported by the US,
  • including about 61.7%
  • of crude oil and virtually all natural
  • gas imported into the country.

  • 11:01
  • That heavy reliance has been a pillar of
  • North American energy integration for
  • decades. But over the last 12 months,
  • policy shifts and market conditions have
  • accelerated Canadian efforts to
  • diversify its energy export routes
  • beyond the United States.
  • Projects aimed at bringing Canadian oil
  • to global markets, particularly via
  • expanded pipelines to the Pacific coast,
  • have seen renewed political and
  • strategic emphasis in Ottawa, reversing
  • years of debate over export
  • infrastructure.
  • As part of this effort, Canada approved
  • new pipeline expansions at the end of
  • 2025, specifically designed to boost
  • exports from Alberta's oil sands to Asia
  • and other non- US markets, part of a
  • strategy to reduce trade dependency on
  • its southern neighbor.
  • The logic is straightforward. By
  • enabling Canadian crude to be shipped
  • directly to Europe and Asia, Ottawa
  • hopes to cushion the impact of US
  • tariffs and political uncertainty. But
  • the consequence for the US oil refining
  • sector may be significant.
  • If Canada successfully diverts even a

  • 12:02
  • fraction of its export flows away from
  • the United States, which currently takes
  • the vast majority of its crude US
  • refineries optimized for Canadian heavy
  • oil, could face tighter supplies and
  • higher costs for feed stock.
  • A second government-driven shift
  • affecting the US economy is the surge in
  • defense spending among NATO allies in
  • 2025. much of it driven by pressure from
  • Washington to increase burden sharing.
  • In June 2025, NATO leaders agreed to a
  • landmark plan aiming for allies to
  • invest 5% of their GDP in defense and
  • security related expenditures by 2035, a
  • massive increase from the long-standing
  • 2% guideline.
  • Canada, for its part, joined this new
  • commitment and is planning to allocate
  • 3.5% of GDP to core military
  • capabilities and an additional 1.5% to
  • related investments, channeling
  • resources into domestic defense
  • industries rather than US suppliers.
  • Meanwhile, European NATO countries have

  • 13:01
  • collectively pushed defense budgets
  • higher as well.
  • EU defense expenditure in 2025 is
  • estimated at around $381 billion, an 11%
  • increase over the previous year and
  • nearly a 63% jump since 20 to20 with
  • procurement and R&D spending expanding
  • rapidly.
  • The strategic intent behind these
  • increases is not only securitydriven but
  • also industrial governments want to
  • build and sustain their own defense
  • manufacturing bases.
  • That means billions of dollars that
  • might once have gone to US arms makers
  • are now being invested in European and
  • Canadian defense sectors.
  • If tariffs were supposed to restore
  • American strength, why do so many allies
  • now seem determined to need America
  • less?
  • If pressure was meant to bring partners
  • back into line, why are consumers,
  • governments, and industries quietly
  • walking away instead?
  • And if this is what winning a trade war
  • looks like, who exactly is losing?
  • That brings us to a harder question.

  • 14:03
  • If tariffs were meant to restore
  • American leverage, why do the numbers
  • show allies adapting instead of
  • complying? And if this is what winning a
  • trade war looks like, who is actually
  • paying the price?
  • The story may end here, but what happens
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