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CANADIAN GRAIN
NOW BEING SHIPPED TO MEXICO ... Minds Of Free

Most People Don't Know Canada's Rails Are Crushing U.S. Grain Leverage — Here's The Urgent Warning

Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAbwcVkLwto
Most People Don't Know Canada's Rails Are Crushing U.S. Grain Leverage — Here's The Urgent Warning

Minds Of Free

Dec 26, 2025

3.14K subscribers ... 7,452 views ... 11K likes

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Canada has officially rewritten the map of North American trade, leaving the United States behind. This video analyzes how the CPKC railway allows Canadian grain to bypass US ports entirely, flowing directly to Mexico. We uncover the strategic failure of US trade policies, the shocking 'Tomato War' that secured Canada’s food supply, and the critical data gap still costing farmers millions. Discover the logistics revolution that is turning the US into a bystander on its own continent.

00:00 | The End of US Logistics Dominance 02:55 | The Grain Train That Bypassed America 05:30 | CPKC Merger and Trade Uncertainty 09:15 | The Tomato War: A Strategic Backfire 13:40 | The Hidden Cost of Missing Data

#economics #politicaleconomy #mindoffree

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Most People Don't Know Canada's Rails Are Crushing U.S. Grain Leverage — Here's The Urgent Warning
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY



Peter Burgess
Transcript
  • 0:02
  • Friends, thank you for being here today.
  • What if I told you that a train loaded
  • with Canadian wheat recently traveled
  • 3,200 miles through the heart of
  • America, passing right by their export
  • terminals without dropping off a single
  • bushel or paying a single dime and port
  • fees to the United States? And why,
  • after a century of dominating North
  • American trade, is the United States
  • suddenly finding itself on the outside
  • looking in, watching its own railways
  • serve Canadian interests? For
  • generations, the economic relationship
  • between Canada and the United States has
  • felt somewhat fixed. They were the
  • giant. We were the partner. They owned
  • the ports. We used them. They set the
  • prices. We adjusted. It was an
  • arrangement born of geography and
  • solidified by history. We grew the
  • grain. But often the path to the rest of
  • the world ran through American
  • infrastructure, down the Mississippi,
  • through the Pacific Northwest, or via
  • the rail lines that fed into the massive
  • industrial engines of the American
  • Midwest. However, quietly, methodically,
  • and without much fanfare in the
  • mainstream press, that reality has been
  • dismantled. A revolution has taken place

  • 1:01
  • on the iron tracks that crisscross our
  • continent. It is a story of steel,
  • strategy, and sovereignty. It is the
  • story of how Canada quietly redirected
  • its grain shipments away from United
  • States ports and toward Mexico, Asia,
  • and direct bilateral routes. It is the
  • story of how railway infrastructure that
  • was built to serve American interests is
  • now being used to bypass them. This is
  • not a temporary blip. This is not a
  • seasonal adjustment. This is a
  • structural change in how North America
  • functions. We are witnessing the
  • redrawing of the map. But while we
  • celebrate this massive victory in
  • logistics and trade, there remains one
  • critical area where we are still flying
  • blind. A missing piece of the puzzle
  • that if left unfixed could cost our
  • farming communities millions. Today,
  • we're going to explore how Canada's
  • rails are crushing US grain leverage.
  • and we will issue an urgent warning
  • about what needs to happen next to
  • secure this victory for the future. But
  • before we dive deeper into this
  • incredible story of Canadian resilience,
  • if you appreciate in-depth analysis like

  • 2:00
  • this, please hit that like button and
  • subscribe to the channel to stay
  • informed on the stories that truly
  • matter to our economy. To understand the
  • magnitude of this shift, let's look
  • first at how Canada effectively bypassed
  • the middleman through a new landbridge.
  • We have to look at a specific event that
  • occurred in September 2025. It was a
  • journey that should have been headline
  • news on every network. Yet, it slipped
  • under the radar for most. Picture a
  • train. A massive heavyh hall freight
  • train loaded to the brim with Canada
  • western red spring wheat. This wheat was
  • harvested from the golden fields of
  • Manitoba, the pride of the Canadian
  • prairies. Historically, a shipment like
  • this might have headed south to the Gulf
  • of Mexico to ports like Houston or New
  • Orleans, where American long shoremen
  • would unload it, American inspectors
  • would certify it, and American companies
  • would take a cut of the profit before
  • shipping it overseas. But that is not
  • what happened in September 2025. This
  • train operated by Canadian Pacific
  • Kansas City or CPKC traveled 3,200 m. It
  • moved from the loading facilities in
  • Manitoba all the way to Mexico City. And
  • here's the kicker. It did not stop at a

  • 3:01
  • Canadian port. It did not stop at a
  • United States port. It went straight
  • through the heart of America. It
  • traversed the American Midwest. It
  • rolled past American silos and American
  • towns. It utilized American rail
  • infrastructure. It required
  • approximately 11 crew changes, meaning
  • American workers were paid to drive the
  • train. But the grain, the grain never
  • touched the American market. The United
  • States acted merely as a hallway, a
  • transit zone. The middleman leverage
  • that the US has held over Canadian
  • agriculture for a century was completely
  • bypassed. When the train arrived in
  • Mexico City, Canadian Prime Minister
  • Mark Carney and CPKC President Keith
  • Creel stood together to celebrate. This
  • was not just a photo opportunity. It was
  • a declaration. It was proof of concept
  • that the grain trade routes defining
  • North American agriculture are being
  • redrawn. You might be wondering how is
  • this logistical feat even possible. To
  • understand the how, we must look at the
  • railway itself. In 2023, a merger
  • occurred that changed the game. Canadian
  • Pacific acquired Kansas City Southern,
  • forming CPKC. This created the first and
  • only single line railway connecting

  • 4:01
  • Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
  • Before this merger, shipping grain to
  • Mexico often involved handing off cars
  • between different railroads, dealing
  • with delays, or routing through US
  • ports. It was inefficient and expensive.
  • Now, it is a seamless continental grain
  • corridor. CPKC acts as a land bridge.
  • According to CPKC's official statements,
  • this railroad now moves a variety of
  • Canadian grains to Mexico, including
  • wheat, oats, canola oils, and specialty
  • crops. These are not occasional
  • shipments. This is a systematic building
  • of trade flows that bypass at United
  • States export terminals entirely. Now,
  • we have to ask ourselves, why is this
  • happening right now? And why is there
  • such urgency? The answer lies in the
  • political climate south of the border.
  • In the transcripts of industry analysis,
  • a phrase keeps popping up, trade policy
  • uncertainty. This is diplomatic code for
  • the chaos that has characterized recent
  • US trade relations. The threat of
  • tariffs, the cancelling of negotiations,
  • the unpredictable enforcement at the
  • border, all of it has convinced Canadian
  • grain shippers that depending on United
  • States export infrastructure is simply

  • 5:01
  • too risky. When a Canadian farmer puts
  • their harvest on a train headed for a US
  • port, they are vulnerable. A sudden
  • tweet, a new tariff, or a labor strike
  • at a US port can leave that grain
  • stranded. But when that grain is on a
  • CPKC train headed directly to a buyer in
  • Mexico City, those risks evaporate. The
  • transaction becomes a purely bilateral
  • trade between Canada and Mexico. The US
  • is physically present. The tracks are on
  • their soil but commercially absent. When
  • we look at the data, the scale of the
  • shift becomes undeniable. According to
  • Transport Canada's Pathways report, over
  • 94% of Canadian grain exported to
  • foreign markets is transported by rail.
  • Rail is the lifeblood of our
  • agriculture. In 2023, we saw the
  • beginning of the shift. But looking at
  • the plans for the 2025 2026 crop year,
  • the trend is undeniable. CPKC's grain
  • plan explicitly states the company is
  • expanding route options to help
  • customers diversify. Agriculture and
  • Agri Food Canada estimated the 2025
  • Canadian crop at approximately 94

  • 6:00
  • million metric tonses. Those are massive
  • volumes and increasingly those volumes
  • are not flowing through the traditional
  • US outlets. Every train load that goes
  • to Mexico City instead of Houston is a
  • train load that US exporters lost. Every
  • shipment that goes through the expanded
  • port of Vancouver instead of Seattle is
  • revenue that American port operators
  • will never recapture. The United States
  • workers are still getting some wages.
  • The train crews, the track maintenance,
  • but the high-v value business, the
  • export handling, the port fees, the
  • merchandising of the grain has been
  • stripped away. The infrastructure
  • benefits remain in the US, but the
  • export business is going elsewhere. Now,
  • you might be thinking that this is great
  • for wheat, but trade is a two-way
  • street. So, let's look at how this
  • applies to imports as well. The genius
  • of this new rail corridor is that it
  • works both ways. While Canadian grain
  • flows south, something equally important
  • flows north. Something that hit the
  • United States where it hurts the most,
  • the dinner table. To understand this, we
  • have to look back at the shock of the
  • tomato war in July 2025. On July 14th,

  • 7:00
  • 2025, the US Department of Commerce made
  • a sudden aggressive move. They abruptly
  • scrapped the tomato trade pact with
  • Mexico and imposed a 17% anti-dumping
  • tariff on all fresh Mexican tomato
  • imports. There was no warning, no buffer
  • period. The United States assumed that
  • Mexico would buckle. Mexico supplies
  • around 70% of the US fresh tomato
  • market. The logic in Washington was
  • likely that Mexico had no other choice
  • but to pay the tariff or negotiate on
  • American terms. They were wrong. Within
  • days, prices in US supermarkets soared.
  • In major cities, tomato prices jumped
  • 30% to 45%. Schools in Illinois had
  • students asking, 'Where's the red?' as
  • tomatoes vanished from cafeteria salads.
  • Families relying on SNAP benefits
  • dropped fresh produce entirely. It was a
  • domestic crisis. But instead of
  • retaliating with tariffs of their own,
  • Mexico did something smarter. They
  • looked at that same rail map that Canada
  • was using. They looked at the CPKC line.
  • In just 3 months, Mexican aggra business
  • leaders partnered with CPKC to launch a
  • cold chain rail corridor. The system

  • 8:00
  • utilized advanced refrigerated
  • containers kept precisely at 1°ree CC to
  • bypass US checkpoints entirely. They
  • rerouted $2.8 8 billion worth of tomato
  • exports away from the US and straight to
  • Canada. The route runs from Bajia
  • through Chihuahua across the US border,
  • bonded and customs free, and straight
  • into Ontario and Quebec. This rail
  • corridor slashed logistics costs by
  • roughly 15% compared to trucking through
  • US checkpoints. Even more impressively,
  • it added four to 5 days of shelf life to
  • the produce because it was ant sitting
  • in trucks waiting for US border agents
  • to inspect it. While American shelves
  • were empty, Canada stepped in to secure
  • the future. While US consumers faced
  • shortages, Canadian retailers like
  • Loblaws, Metro, and Sobay were locking
  • in supply. They didn't just buy the
  • tomatoes. They signed five-year
  • procurement deals running through 2030.
  • This was a massive strategic win for
  • Canada. We secured a stable, highquality
  • food supply at a lower cost. New cold
  • storage hubs opened in Windsor, fully
  • booked into 2026. We streamlined customs
  • and rail logistics, dropping landing
  • costs by about 8% per crate. By 2026,

  • 9:01
  • nearly 48% of Mexico's fresh tomato
  • exports are projected to head north to
  • Canada, up from less than 1% just two
  • years earlier. And it is not just
  • tomatoes. This corridor is now carrying
  • avocados, strawberries, and peppers. The
  • United States, by trying to bully its
  • neighbor with tariffs, essentially
  • forced Mexico and Canada into a tighter,
  • more efficient embrace. Canada evolved
  • from a backup buyer into a reliable
  • trade anchor. The US lost the leverage,
  • lost the produce, and lost the stability
  • of prices for its own consumers. The
  • story of the grain train and the tomato
  • train is fascinating, but it is part of
  • a much larger global picture where the
  • world is rejecting US chaos. The
  • redirection of trade is not just
  • happening inside North America. It is
  • happening across the oceans. Global
  • buyers, the nations that buy wheat,
  • corn, and soy to feed their populations,
  • are riskaverse. They crave stability.
  • When a country like Japan or a block
  • like the European Union looks at where
  • to buy their food, they are not just
  • looking at the price tag on the bushel.
  • They are looking at the reliability of
  • the supplier. Recent years have painted

  • 10:00
  • the United States as a volatile partner,
  • creating a crisis of reliability. Trade
  • wars, tariff threats, labor strikes at
  • ports, and political brinkmanship have
  • sent a clear signal to the world. The US
  • supply chain is risky. In the past, the
  • United States was the default. It had
  • the biggest volume and the best ports.
  • But as we have seen in the transcripts
  • discussing global buyers, that sentiment
  • is shifting. Buyers are rejecting the
  • USA and turning to Canada. Why? Because
  • Canada is boring. And in the world of
  • logistics, boring is beautiful. Boring
  • means your shipment arrives on time.
  • Boring means no surprise tariffs. Boring
  • means stable diplomatic relations.
  • There's also a hidden economic
  • consequence to this shift that most
  • people do not understand. But it is
  • devastating for American farmers. It
  • involves a concept called blending.
  • Historically, because the US system was
  • the hub, American wheat and corn could
  • be co-mingled or shipped alongside
  • Canadian grain. This created massive
  • economies of scale. It allowed US
  • exporters to blend different qualities
  • of grain to meet specific buyer
  • requirements at a lower cost. But as

  • 11:01
  • Canadian grain is redirected away from
  • US ports, flowing instead through
  • Vancouver, Prince Roupert, or direct to
  • Mexico, those US volumes are dropping.
  • The efficiencies are disappearing. US
  • grain exporters now face higher per unit
  • shipping costs because they are handling
  • smaller volumes. They lose those
  • blending opportunities. This makes
  • American grain more expensive relative
  • to the competition. Meanwhile, Canadian
  • grain now finding efficient routes that
  • bypass US markups becomes more price
  • competitive globally. The most alarming
  • part of this for the United States is
  • that these changes are structural, not
  • temporary. When a Mexican feed buyer
  • signs a multi-year contract with a
  • Canadian supplier delivered via CPKC
  • rail, they invest in that relationship.
  • They build their receiving
  • infrastructure to match the rail
  • logistics. They integrate their computer
  • systems. They do not just tear that up
  • because a new president enters the White
  • House or because a tariff is lifted. The
  • Port of Prince Roupert is expanding. The
  • Port of Vancouver is setting records.
  • These are billions of dollars in
  • infrastructure investments that cement
  • Canada's new position. We are not just a

  • 12:01
  • plan B anymore. For many global buyers
  • in Asia and Europe, Canada is becoming
  • the plan A. As the transcript noted, the
  • United States is just no longer
  • necessary for any of it. Canadian
  • farmers are selling, global buyers are
  • buying, and the trains are rolling. The
  • US is being bypassed, and its relevance
  • is eroding. This leads us to a crucial
  • question. Can the US simply switch this
  • trade back when their political winds
  • change? It is tempting to think that
  • this is all just a temporary reaction to
  • a specific political moment. that once
  • the dust settles in Washington or a new
  • administration takes power, the natural
  • gravity of the US economy will pull all
  • this trade back to American ports. But
  • the physical and digital reality on the
  • ground tells a very different and much
  • more permanent story. We must understand
  • that trade routes are like rivers and
  • once you dig a new channel and the water
  • starts flowing, it takes an enormous
  • amount of energy to force it back to the
  • old riverbed. What Canada and CPKC have
  • done is dig a very deep, very concrete
  • channel that is not easily reversed.
  • Consider the sheer scale of the hardware
  • investment. We're not just talking about

  • 13:01
  • running a few extra trains on existing
  • tracks. CPKC has announced over $500
  • million in investments specifically for
  • high-capacity hopper cars and has taken
  • delivery of 100 new high efficiency
  • locomotives. These are assets with
  • lifespans measured in decades, not
  • election cycles. These hopper cars are
  • designed specifically for the heavy haul
  • from the Canadian prairies to Mexico.
  • They are part of a closed loop system.
  • The railway is not going to park these
  • hundreds of millions of dollars of
  • assets just because a US port operator
  • decides to lower their fees by a few
  • cents. The capital has been deployed.
  • The steel has been cast and the trains
  • are moving. But the mode around this
  • Canadian advantage is not just built of
  • steel. It is built of code. In November
  • 2025, Canada launched electronic phyto
  • sanitary export certificates for grain
  • shipments to Mexico. This might sound
  • like boring bureaucracy, but it is
  • actually a revolutionary digital
  • handshake. In the old days and currently
  • for many US shipments, trade involved
  • piles of paper documents that had to be
  • physically mailed, stamped, and

  • 14:00
  • inspected. This process was slow, prone
  • to fraud, and vulnerable to delays. By
  • moving to a fully electronic system,
  • Canada and Mexico have created a fast
  • lane that bypasses the friction of the
  • past. The Canadian Food Inspection
  • Agency notes that this system eliminates
  • the delivery times associated with
  • mailing documents and drastically
  • reduces the risk of fraud. For a Mexican
  • buyer, this is a gamecher. It means they
  • can track their shipment digitally from
  • a farm in Saskatchewan to a mill in
  • Mexico City with zero friction. Why
  • would they go back to a US supplier who
  • is still relying on a slower,
  • paperheavy, and politically
  • unpredictable system? They wouldn't. The
  • digital infrastructure is the glue that
  • makes this new trade relationship
  • incredibly sticky. Furthermore, we have
  • to look at the human cost of this shift
  • in the United States. Often referred to
  • as the hollowing out of the middleman
  • economy. When we bypass US ports, the
  • damage to the American economy goes far
  • beyond just lost port fees. It decimates
  • an entire ecosystem of service
  • industries. Think about the freight
  • forwarders, the grain inspectors, the
  • logistics coordinators, and the blending

  • 15:00
  • facility operators in places like New
  • Orleans or Seattle. These are skilled
  • jobs that depend on the flow of Canadian
  • grain. When that grain stays on a rail
  • car until it hits Mexico, those jobs
  • disappear. And once those inspectors and
  • logistics companies close their doors,
  • they don't just reopen overnight. The
  • expertise is lost. The capacity is lost.
  • The United States is losing the soft
  • infrastructure of trade just as rapidly
  • as they are losing the physical volume.
  • This is the hidden price of arrogance.
  • For too long, American trade policy
  • assumed that geography was destiny. That
  • Canada had no choice but to ship through
  • the US because it was the only path to
  • the world. But technology, capital, and
  • strategic determination have allowed
  • Canada to engineer around that
  • geography. We have built a bypass road
  • around a difficult neighbor. And as any
  • town that has been bypassed by a new
  • highway knows, once the traffic leaves,
  • it rarely comes back. So far, this
  • sounds like a victory lap. But we must
  • issue an urgent warning about the
  • missing link in our success. In many
  • ways, it is a victory. We have
  • outmaneuvered a superpower through smart

  • 16:01
  • infrastructure and reliable diplomacy.
  • However, if we stop the story here, we
  • are doing a disservice to the Canadian
  • farmer. Because while we are winning the
  • logistics war, we are fighting the
  • market war with one hand tied behind our
  • backs. This brings us to a critical
  • concept in economics. Information is
  • infrastructure. Just as you need steel
  • rails to move grain, you need accurate
  • data to move markets. Right now,
  • Canadian grain farmers are competing in
  • a global marketplace against American
  • and European farmers. But the playing
  • field is not level when it comes to
  • information. In the United States, the
  • USDA, United States Department of
  • Agriculture, publishes a weekly export
  • sales report. every week like clockwork.
  • American farmers know exactly how much
  • grain has been sold, to which countries,
  • and at what volumes. They also have
  • flash sale reports. If a big deal
  • happens, like China buying 12 million
  • tons of beans, it is reported
  • immediately by law. This transparency
  • gives American farmers power. It lets
  • them know if demand is hot or cold. It
  • helps them decide whether to sell their
  • crop today or store it for a better

  • 17:00
  • price next month. It drives the basis,
  • the local cash price, up when demand is
  • high. Unfortunately, here in Canada, we
  • do not have this level of transparency.
  • Our export data is often months old by
  • the time it becomes public. We know what
  • happened in the past, but we have very
  • little visibility into what is happening
  • right now. The big grain companies know.
  • They are the ones making the sales. The
  • railways know. They are the ones booking
  • the cars. But the farmer, the farmer is
  • often the last to know. This information
  • asymmetry puts Canadian producers at a
  • distinct disadvantage. We have built the
  • hardware of trade, the trains and ports,
  • but we have neglected the software, the
  • data. You might ask, does it really
  • matter? The answer is yes, to the tune
  • of millions of dollars. A study led by
  • SAS crops and APS, Agricultural
  • Producers Association of Saskatchewan,
  • looked into this exact issue.
  • Independent analysis suggests that
  • closing this information gap simply by
  • mandating weekly export sales reporting
  • like the US has could generate up to
  • 56.6 $6 million annually for Canadian

  • 18:01
  • grain farmers. That is $56 million that
  • is currently staying in the pockets of
  • global buyers or grain handlers rather
  • than going to the families who actually
  • grow the crop. And that is a
  • conservative estimate. When a farmer
  • doesn't know that a big sale has just
  • been made to Mexico or China, they might
  • sell their grain too cheaply. They might
  • accept a lower price because they don't
  • realize that supply is tightening.
  • Conversely, if sales are slow, they
  • might hold on to grain too long and miss
  • a window. Now, there are those who argue
  • that secrecy is good, but that argument
  • is losing weight. They say that if we
  • publish our sales data, our competitors
  • will know what we're doing. They argue
  • that Canada is a smaller market than the
  • US, so we need to keep our cards close
  • to our chest. But this argument is
  • losing weight. As we have established,
  • Canada is no longer a small player. We
  • are a dominant force in wheat, canola,
  • and pulses. We are feeding the world.
  • Furthermore, the lack of data hurts the
  • entire supply chain. It makes logistics
  • planning harder. If we want our new rail
  • corridors to be as efficient as
  • possible, we need transparency so that

  • 19:00
  • everyone from the farmer to the port
  • operator can forecast demand accurately.
  • As one of the experts in the transcripts
  • noted, information is power. By keeping
  • farmers in the dark, we are stripping
  • them of the power to maximize the value
  • of the very victory we have achieved
  • with our rail network. I want to pause
  • here and ask you, do you think it is
  • fair that Canadian farmers are operating
  • in the dark compared to their American
  • counterparts? Or do you believe there
  • are valid reasons for this secrecy?
  • Please drop a comment below sharing your
  • thoughts on this critical issue. The
  • call to action is clear. Organizations
  • like Sask Crops and APASS are calling
  • for a federal export sales reporting
  • program. This isn't about creating more
  • bureaucracy. It's about creating a fair
  • market. We need to treat data with the
  • same seriousness that we treat our rail
  • lines. We need to invest in the systems
  • that track and report sales in real
  • time. We need to ensure that the
  • Canadian farmer who is the foundation of
  • this entire success story is not the
  • only person in the room wearing a
  • blindfold. Friends, as we conclude, it
  • is clear we are living through a
  • historic moment in North American

  • 20:00
  • history. For decades, the assumption was
  • that the United States held all the
  • cards. They had the population, the
  • money, and the ports. Canada was viewed
  • as a junior partner, dependent on
  • American infrastructure to reach the
  • world. That era is over. The site of
  • CPKC trains rolling from Manitoba to
  • Mexico, bypassing American ports, is a
  • symbol of our new reality. We have built
  • a land bridge that connects the
  • continent on our terms. We have turned
  • American tariffs into an opportunity to
  • secure our own food supply with Mexican
  • produce. We have proven to the world
  • that Canada is the adult in the room,
  • the reliable, stable partner that global
  • buyers can trust while Washington
  • descends into chaos. We are winning. The
  • rails prove it. The contracts prove it.
  • The empty shelves in American grocery
  • stores during the tomato tariff crisis
  • proved it. But to secure this victory
  • for the long term, we must take the
  • final step. We must empower our
  • producers. We cannot ask our farmers to
  • compete in a 21st century global market
  • with 20th century data. If we want to
  • fully realize the potential of this new
  • iron river flowing south, we need to
  • turn on the lights. We need transparent
  • weekly export sales reporting. We need

  • 21:01
  • to put that $56 million back into the
  • pockets of our farmers. The United
  • States is learning a hard lesson. You
  • cannot bully your way to prosperity. You
  • can only bully yourself into
  • irrelevance. They are watching the
  • trains go by, wondering where their
  • business went. Let us make sure that as
  • we watch those same trains, we know
  • exactly what is on them, where it is
  • going, and what it is truly worth. Stay
  • informed, stay Canadian, and keep
  • watching the rails. Thank you.


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