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CANADA PM MARK CARNEY WILL NOT CAVE ... Conway Report and Conway Briefing Trump’s Trade Gamble COLLAPSES After Canada Draws a Hard Line \| George Conway PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AKRrgv9QUg
Trump’s Trade Gamble COLLAPSES After Canada Draws a Hard Line \| George Conway Conway Report and Conway Briefing 61,265 views ... 2.4K likes Dec 19, 2025 Donald Trump believed Canada would blink. Instead, his trade gamble collapsed—and the fallout is already ripping through the U.S. economy. What was meant to be a show of strength quickly turned into a strategic failure as Canada drew a hard line and refused to break the very trade rules the United States wrote. Rather than folding under pressure, Mark Carney responded with calm, rules-based discipline, exposing just how unprepared Washington was for a firm “no.” Markets reacted, supply chains trembled, and suddenly the White House found itself scrambling to contain damage it never anticipated. This isn’t just a dispute over tariffs or trade quotas. It’s a revealing moment about leadership, leverage, and the cost of treating allies like adversaries. As Trump escalated threats, Canada leaned on law, economics, and targeted countermeasures—forcing a reckoning that has alarmed businesses, lawmakers, and investors on both sides of the border. Conservative legal voices, including George Conway, are now warning that this episode represents a dangerous breakdown in strategy, constitutional norms, and global trust in U.S. leadership. If you want to understand how this crisis unfolded, why Canada held the upper hand, and what this means for American workers, markets, and the future of U.S. alliances, watch closely. The consequences are only beginning to surface. Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess Transcript 0:00 So, Donald Trump just stared down the one country on earth that he thought he could bully without consequence. And for the first time in his political life, he blinked. But here is the thing. The damage is already done, and it is catastrophic. We are watching the complete collapse of a tough guy gambling strategy that was doomed from the start. The White House operated on the arrogant assumption that Canada, our polite, rule-following neighbor, would simply fold the moment Trump raised his voice. They banked everything on the idea that fear alone would force Ottawa to tear up a trade deal that keeps the North American economy alive. But guess what? That gamble has backfired in the most spectacular way imaginable. Instead of submission, Trump has been met with a wall of cold, hard competence that has exposed his administration as chaotic, unprepared, and frankly out of its depth. It's honestly hard to believe he thought this would work. We are talking about a G7 nation, a country that 1:02 supplies the electricity for the eastern seabboard, the aluminum for our fighter jets, and the oil for our refineries. Can you believe the nerve? He treated a sovereign ally like a contractor he could stiff on a bill. and now he is standing in the wreckage of that decision looking for someone else to blame. This is absolutely wild. This isn't just about the price of softwood lumber or dairy quotas. We are talking about the United States proving to the world that it can no longer be trusted to honor its own signatures. And trust me, the economic pain that is about to hit American families because of this unforced error is going to make the inflation of the last few years look like a picnic. Let me fill you in on what's been happening because if you aren't paying attention to the details, you are missing the biggest story of the year. So, let's look at the setup here. Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a chip on his shoulder and a list of enemies. He was determined to prove that his America 2:01 first doctrine meant America alone. and he decided that the USMCA, the very trade deal he touted as the greatest ever just a few years ago, was suddenly a disaster. He didn't have data to back this up. He had grievances. He needed a villain to rally his base against, and he decided that Canada, with its Liberal prime minister and its commitment to climate accords, was the perfect target. From the get-go, he seemed to believe that he could rewrite the rules of international commerce by tweet. Whether it was his sudden threats to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, his bizarre demands that Canada change its immigration laws to suit his whims, or his public insults directed at Canadian officials during NATO summits. Trump really cemented himself as a leader who views diplomacy not as the building of relationships, but as the extraction of concessions through brute force. But here's where the rubber meets the road. He isn't dealing with a disorganized 3:00 opponent this time. He is dealing with Mark Carney and a Canadian war room that has spent years preparing for exactly this scenario. They knew he would come back. They knew he would be aggressive. and they built a strategy designed to neutralize his chaos with boring, relentless stability. Now, this is where it gets wild. We're now weeks into this standoff, and the bluff has been called. The Trump administration threatened the nuclear option of a universal tariff, assuming Canada would rush to the negotiating table to beg for an exemption. Instead, Canada calmly released a list of retaliatory measures so precise, so politically targeted, and so economically devastating that it froze the White House in its tracks. Auto plants in Ohio, which rely on parts crossing the border six or seven times during production, are suddenly facing shutdowns. Farmers in Iowa and Wisconsin are staring at the loss of their biggest export market. Energy traders in Houston 4:00 are panicking about the disruption of crude oil flows. This mess is unfolding because the Trump administration is at a standstill, trapped between their own rhetoric and the economic reality that they cannot survive a trade war with their biggest customer. And guess who's stuck right in the middle? Yep, the American worker. The very people Trump swore to protect are the ones who are going to lose their shifts, their overtime, and their job security because the president wanted to pick a fight he couldn't win. Mark Carney is supposed to be the globalist boogeyman in Trump's narrative. But here's the kicker. Carney is the one acting like the adult in the room. He isn't engaging in the name calling. He isn't making empty threats. He is simply explaining the math. If you tax us, we tax you. And since we buy more from you than you buy from us, you lose. And before we go any further, let's be real for a second. It is deeply embarrassing that the United States of America, the architect of the global economic system, is being lectured on 5:01 basic economics by our neighbor to the north. But that is what happens when you elect a leader who thinks he knows more than the experts. Now, back to the matter at hand. Reports from around late November 2025 revealed just how quickly the situation unraveled inside the West Wing. Sources describe a scene of absolute chaos as the Canadian countermeasures were briefed to the president. Trump reportedly exploded, labeling the Canadian response as nasty and ungrateful and even went as far to say that Canada was behaving like an enemy of the people. Talk about strong words. Essentially, the president was accusing a NATO ally of treachery simply because they refused to commit economic suicide at his behest. And this wasn't a private conversation. Trump made sure to air his grievances publicly, taking to Truth Social at 3:00 a.m. to blast the Canadian leadership, accused them of smuggling terrorists across the border, a claim with zero evidence, and threatening to close the border 6:00 permanently if he didn't get his way. This announcement sent shock waves through the American business community because it raised all sorts of questions. If Donald Trump is willing to shut down the longest undefended border in the world, a border that facilitates $2.6 billion in trade every single day over a temper tantrum. What does that mean for the stability of the entire US economy? What does that mean for anyone who has invested money in North America? Now, this isn't the first time we've seen this kind of betrayal of norms. Donald Trump's loyalty really only extends to himself. Whenever someone or some country stops being useful or refuses to bend the knee, he's quick to turn on them with a ferocity that is usually reserved for actual enemies. We've spotted this pattern time and time again, and it always ends the same way, destruction. Just think about how he turned on Jeff Sessions. Sessions was the first senator to endorse Trump, the man who gave the MAGA movement its legitimacy in the halls of Congress. He was a true believer. But the moment 7:01 Sessions followed the Department of Justice's own ethics rules and recused himself from the Russia investigation, he became a target. Trump didn't care about the law. He cared about protection. He spent months humiliating Sessions publicly, calling him scared, stiff, and missing an action before finally firing him. The message was clear. Loyalty to Trump supersedes loyalty to the law. Then there was William Bar. Bar came in as the ultimate shield, the man who spun the Mueller report and intervened in cases to help Trump's friends. He was the most effective defender Trump ever had. But Trump wasn't pleased when Bar refused to seize voting machines in 2020 or declare the election stolen. Bar drew a line at actual sedition. And for that, Trump turned on him instantly, calling him a Reno, a swamp creature, and a coward. The message was clear. You can do 99 things right, but if you refuse to do 8:00 the one illegal thing he wants, you are dead to him. And let's not forget how he distanced himself from Mike Pence. Pence served as the perfect sickopant for four years, nodding silently while Trump shattered norms, defending the indefensible and lending his Christian conservative credibility to a man who has none. But the moment Pence refused to single-handedly overturn the Constitution on January 6th, something he had no legal power to do, Trump sent a mob to the capital that chanted for his hanging. The message was clear. There is no amount of service that earns you safety if you cross him. Even Kevin McCarthy faced a similar fate. McCarthy went to Marago weeks after the insurrection to rehabilitate Trump, saving him from political exile. He debased himself for years to become speaker, promising to do Trump's bidding. But when McCarthy had to actually govern, when he had to pass a debt sealing bill to prevent a global financial collapse, Trump let the far-right wolves eat him alive. He 9:00 watched McCarthy get fired and didn't lift a finger to save him. The message was clear. You are only useful as long as you are winning for him. Now, it looks like Canada is in the hot seat. This pattern is becoming all too familiar. You can be the closest ally in the world. You can share a language, a culture, and a history. But the moment you say no to a demand that makes no sense, you are treated like a hostile combatant. Trump doesn't want allies, he wants accompllices. And Canada refused to be an accomplice to his economic vandalism. So what did Canada do to tick off Donald Trump so badly? Well, it all boils down to a refusal to break the rules of the game that the United States wrote. The impass happened because Trump demanded that Canada voluntarily rewrite the USMCA to allow for US imposed quotas on dairy and aluminum that violated the treaty's terms. He wanted voluntary export restraints, a mafistile tactic where you force someone to limit their 10:01 own sales or else. Ultimately, the breakdown happened since no sovereign nation can agree to strangle its own economy just to help a foreign leader's poll numbers. As the key strategist, Mark Carney decided to take a rules-based stance. He didn't engage in the emotional drama. He simply pointed to the dispute resolution chapters in the USMCA chapters that Trump's own team negotiated and said, 'We will follow the law. If you have a complaint, file it. If you impose illegal tariffs, we will retaliate.' His approach seemed to be just what the markets were desperate for, predictability. At first, Trump seemed to be confused by this. He appreciates toughness, but he assumes it's always a facade. He thought Canada was bluffing. But as the crisis dragged into December, some issues started cropping up. The price of lumber skyrocketed, adding $15,000 to the cost of a new home in a market where housing is already unaffordable. The price of 11:00 Canadian oil, which refineries in the Midwest are built to process, began to spike. While the Canadians were steadfast and holding their ground, predictably, the public began to shift their blame toward the chaos coming from the White House. Polls indicated that Americans were increasingly frustrated with the sudden return of inflation and the sense that the economy was spiraling out of control. This was the moment Trump began to sweat a little. You see, Trump values his image as the economic miracle worker. He runs on the economy. He cannot afford to be the man who caused a recession in 2026. He doesn't want to be tied to a downturn that is visibly, undeniably his own fault. That's definitely not the victory he seeks. And then Canada went ahead and made a move that according to Trump was a serious misstep. They announced they were opening emergency trade talks with the European Union and the UK to divert their energy and critical minerals away from the US market. But then when Trump 12:01 caught wind of all this, he absolutely lost it. In Trump's eyes, this was the ultimate betrayal. He believes America owns the North American market by divine right. For Canada to suggest they have other options, that's pure treason against the America first narrative. Any ally who dares to protect their own national interest instead of serving ours is instantly labeled a threat. Now, this left the administration in a tight spot. On one side, Trump really needs to maintain the support of the business class, the donors, the CEOs, the Wall Street types. They are the ones who fund the party and they are screaming at the White House to stop this madness before it crashes the stock market. On the flip side, he actually has to keep his promise to his base to be the tariff man. He has told them for years that tariffs are magic money that foreigners pay. Admitting that tariffs are actually taxes on Americans would be a fatal admission of failure. The tricky part is all of that requires him to back down. 13:01 And backing down is the one thing his psychology does not allow. So Trump is caught in a bind. He can either keep trying to crush Canada, which means escalating the trade war, watching inflation hit six or 7% and guaranteeing a Republican wipeout in the midterms, or he can do his actual job as president, which means deescalating, respecting the treaty and blaming the deep state for the misunderstanding, but that'll definitely make him look weak to the hardliners like Steve Bannon who want to burn it all down. It's a tough situation and that's the mess Trump creates for everyone. He paints himself into a corner with extreme rhetoric and then realizes there is no door to get out. This whole scenario is causing major stress within the Republican party. If Trump has turned on the business community and is willing to torch the economy for a culture war against Canada, every Republican senator is left wondering if they are going to lose their seat. Those moderates, the few that are left who represent suburban 14:01 districts, are now worried sick. They know that suburban voters hate chaos. They hate instability. And a trade war with Canada is the definition of instability. Meanwhile, the extreme faction believe that Canada is a woke socialist hell hole and that we should destroy them regardless of the cost. They are pushing Trump to go further, to close the border, to seize assets. Things became even more intense when Steve Schmidt, the former Republican strategist who has become a vocal critic of the MAGA movement, broke away from the usual punditry to deliver a stark warning. He pointed out that Trump is walking into a bear trap of his own making. He noted that Canada has more leverage than we think and that by attacking them, Trump is uniting the entire Canadian political spectrum against him. When someone like Schmidt, who understands the mechanics of political warfare better than almost anyone, says you are committing suicide, 15:00 you know you're in a world of hurt. Now, let's look at the legal reality because the courts are getting involved and they are not amused. The US Chamber of Commerce, the biggest business lobby in the country, decided to take legal action. On the 5th of December 2025, they filed a blistering lawsuit in federal court stating that Trump's attempt to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, EA, to impose these tariffs was a massive legal violation. They pointed out that the EA was designed for terrorists, drug cartels, and hostile regimes like Iran or North Korea. It was never intended to be used against a treaty ally to settle a trade dispute. The legal process moved pretty quickly and the courts recognized the urgency. After all, every day the threat of tariffs hangs over the economy. Businesses freeze investment. And let me tell you, the legal arguments coming out of this are devastating for 16:00 the administration. The plaintiffs are arguing that the president's declaration of a national emergency regarding Canadian trade is pretextual, meaning it's a lie. That's legal speak for saying, 'You are faking an emergency to bypass Congress because you know you can't get the votes.' The judges are listening. During oral arguments, even conservative judges appointed by Trump seemed skeptical. They asked the government lawyers how exactly Canadian milk threatens national security. The lawyers had no answer. This is a huge deal that doesn't usually happen. Courts usually defer to the president on national security, but when the claim is this absurd, the judiciary steps in. Legal experts are noting that we haven't seen a challenge to executive power this significant since the steel seizure cases in the 1,950 seconds. Conservative legal expert George Conway, yes, I have been screaming this from the rooftops, made a statement that really should catch 17:00 everyone's attention. The argument is simple. If the president can declare our closest ally a national security threat just because he wants to tax them, then the Constitution's separation of powers is dead. Just think about that for a moment. Article one, section 8 of the Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to regulate commerce and levy taxes. If Trump gets away with this, he has effectively stolen that power from the legislature. Another expert, J. Michael Ludig, a conservative legal heavyweight, mentioned that this is tyranny in the guise of security. When legal experts from the Federalist Society world start tossing around terms like tyranny and usurppation, that's the moment today. really pay attention. So, let's break down what this showdown could mean because it's not just a captivating legal story. It has serious consequences for how our government operates. First up is the immediate political fallout. Trump is already facing significant backlash due to the rising costs. His 18:01 approval ratings have dipped below 40% in key battleground states. Farmers in the Midwest and manufacturers in the rust belt are getting anxious about the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, which is definitely adding to the tension. They know that if the Republicans lose Congress, Trump's agenda is dead in the water. The new crisis development is that the stock market has started to price in a policy error recession. And honestly, that's not the best look for him. Most folks in America have a good deal of respect for fairness. They understand that you don't bully your friends. They understand that a deal is a deal. The Democrats are definitely planning to take advantage of this situation. They'll argue that Trump believes he is above the law and does not hold the economic security of working families in high regard. And they'll have the empty factories and the high prices backing up those claims. This is going to be exhibit A in proving that the chaos candidate brings nothing 19:01 but chaos. You can expect to see this popping up in opposition campaign ads, speeches, and debates. Now, let's touch on what this means for the institution of the presidency. Mark Carney and the institutionalists have been working hard to show that the system works if you let it. They want to prove that rules matter. But by taking this action, Trump has wed right into a war on the very concept of rules. Trump and his supporters are now poised to attack the courts if they rule against him, implying bias and questioning their motives, which complicates things for the rule of law. Yet, the Chamber of Commerce probably felt they had no other choice. If they stayed silent while the violation continued, the precedent would be set that the president can tax anyone, any time, for any reason. This situation shines a massive spotlight on the core principle at stake. At the heart of the issue is whether the president is a king or a constitutional 20:01 officer. If he gets his way on that, it could totally change how our system operates. The system was designed to be slow and deliberative for a reason, to prevent exactly this kind of impulsive destruction. But Trump has always been uncomfortable with those limitations. He craves speed and total control. If the violation is allowed, that's a significant boost to the unitary executive theory on steroids, and it opens the door for future leaders to misuse that power. So, the implications of this case reach far beyond just trade with Canada. It's about shaping the structure of the American republic for the next century. Each time Trump brushes aside norms, breaks laws, or attacks our institutions, it weakens our democratic systems. It starts making behavior that used to be completely unacceptable feel normal. Think about it. If Trump can use the IEA to punish Canada, what's to stop the next president from using it to punish a state that votes the wrong way? If he 21:00 can just abuse emergency powers whenever he wants, what's to prevent another leader from following that lead? These actions don't just disappear when Trump leaves office. They become part of our new reality. And that's pretty dangerous. Democracy relies on those norms and institutions, assuming that people in power will play by the rules, even when it's a bit inconvenient. When those norms crumble, democracy itself starts to falter. Looking ahead to the next few months, it's clear that all of this is going to have some significant effects. We're still a year out from the midterms, but the narrative being set now is bound to influence how things go. If the story playing out is one of Trump breaking the economy because he got into a fight with Canada, that spells trouble for the GOP. Voters usually don't reward incompetence. They want stability. Right now, Trump isn't offering stability. He is offering a roller coaster ride that nobody signed up for. So, expect the opposition to champion a message focused on a return to sanity. After years of 22:01 chaos under Trump, there are folks who believe that if you vote for a check on his power, the adults will be able to stop the bleeding. They're promising no more constant constitutional crises or squables with our neighbors, just good old normal governance. That message might just hit home for a lot of voters, including some members of Trump's own party. So, here's the deal. Donald Trump tried to pull a fast one on a partner that holds all the aces and he got caught. This isn't just a failed negotiation. It's a failure of leadership. If we allow this to continue, then we're basically saying that facts don't matter, that laws don't matter, and that alliances don't matter. That would mean we're stepping into a completely new realm where the United States is alone in the world, isolated by its own arrogance. It's about so much more than just trade. It's about whether we want to be a serious nation or a reality TV show. So, keep an eye on this. Things are just heating up. The legal battles are just beginning and the 23:01 economic fallout is just starting to be felt. The next few weeks are going to be crucial. We're just getting started. The stakes have never been higher, the evidence stronger, and the outcome more unpredictable.

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