Date: 2025-11-19 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00029174
COMMENTARY / LITHUANIA
Rachel Maddow on action by Lithuania
Deep Current Report: Lithuania Just Triggered
Moscow’s $50B Trade Meltdown! | Rachel Maddow
Rachel Maddow on action by Lithuania
Deep Current Report: Lithuania Just Triggered
Moscow’s $50B Trade Meltdown! | Rachel Maddow
Rachel Maddow on the Ukraine War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XL7g6R4Zzg target = _blank > Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XL7g6R4Zzg
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
Transcript
- 0:00
- So, something remarkable just happened
- tonight. And if you haven't been
- following this story closely, take a
- moment because it's one of those
- geopolitical shifts that start small,
- almost invisible, and then suddenly
- everyone realizes the ground just moved.
- Lithuania, a tiny Baltic country of
- fewer than 3 million people, just shut
- down a $50 billion trade corridor that
- Russia desperately needs to keep its
- economy alive. And yes, that number's
- real. $50 billion. At first glance, it
- looks like a bureaucratic story.
- Customs, sanctions, border paperwork,
- but it's not. It's a moral and political
- shock wave that's echoing from the
- Baltic Sea all the way to Moscow. Here's
- the background. For decades, Russia has
- relied on a thin rail line that cuts
- across Lithuania to reach its western
- outpost of Kinenrad. This strange little
- chunk of Russian territory that's wedged
- between Poland and Lithuania, cut off
- from the rest of the country. It's home
- to military bases. missiles and about
- half a million civilians who depend on
- 1:01
- those supply trains for well just about
- everything. Normally about 1 and a half
- million tons of goods move through that
- route every single month. Steel, cement,
- fuel, electronics. That flow is what
- kept Kolinenrad alive. And it was one of
- the few arteries Russia still had left
- into Europe after all the sanctions that
- followed the invasion of Ukraine. And
- now it's gone. Lithuania closed the
- corridor cold, clean, and completely
- within European Union law. No drama, no
- warnings, just click, border sealed. And
- Moscow, they're furious. State TV is
- calling it an act of war. The Kremlin's
- threatening serious consequences. But
- notice the difference this time.
- Nobody's backing down because everyone
- in Europe knows exactly what Lithuania
- is doing. They're saying, 'We've lived
- through this before.' They remember
- tanks in their streets, their parents'
- whispers about deportations, the decades
- when even speaking out was dangerous. So
- when they enforce these sanctions, it's
- 2:01
- not about bureaucracy, it's about
- history. They're saying never again.
- What's wild is how bold that is. You're
- talking about a nation that shares a
- border with a nuclear power and still
- says we'll do it. They know there'll be
- blowback, cyber attacks, energy threats,
- maybe worse, but they went ahead anyway.
- And that's the part that gives this
- story its gravity. It's not just the
- policy, it's the psychology. A small
- democracy looked at one of the world's
- biggest authoritarian regimes and said,
- 'No, no more compliance, no more fear.'
- And maybe that's why this move hits
- harder than any sanction or speech we've
- seen so far. Because it's not coming
- from Washington or Brussels. It's coming
- from a border guard in Vnius stamping a
- document and stopping a train. It's
- courage written in paperwork. When you
- think about it like that, the symbolism
- becomes almost cinematic. A tiny country
- enforcing international law against the
- empire that once ruled it. No tanks, no
- missiles, just law and the will to
- 3:01
- uphold it. And if you want to measure
- how much the world has changed, look at
- the math. $50 billion in trade. 400
- freight cars stranded mid- route. Nearly
- 10% of Kinenrad's imports gone
- overnight. That's not just a policy
- shift. That's a statement. So tonight,
- as those trains sit idle on the border,
- what we're really watching is something
- far bigger. It's the moment when
- Europe's smallest nation reminded
- everyone that power isn't just about
- armies or resources. It's about
- conviction. And conviction, as we're
- seeing, travels fast. So let's talk
- about what that actually means. shutting
- down a $50 billion trade corridor.
- Because when you strip away the politics
- and the headlines, what's left is an
- economy suddenly gasping for air.
- Kinenrad, that little Russian outpost on
- the Baltic Sea, depends almost entirely
- on that route through Lithuania. And I
- don't mean depends as in it's helpful. I
- mean depends as in without it, the
- 4:00
- lights start to flicker. Roughly one and
- a half million tons of cargo used to
- move through that corridor every single
- month. fuel, steel, construction
- materials, even groceries. Now nothing.
- The border shut down and within 72
- hours, the ripple effects were
- everywhere. Freight costs tripled. Cargo
- ships in the Baltic scrambled for
- rerouting, adding about 1,200 km and
- weeks of delay. And remember, this is
- happening while Russia's economy is
- already straining under sanctions,
- falling exports, and a war it can't
- afford. You cut off a lifeline like this
- and you don't just bruise the system,
- you break it. Within days, prices in
- Kinenrad started climbing. A loaf of
- bread up nearly 30% in a week. Gasoline
- shortages, construction sites frozen
- mid- project, and every new shipment
- arriving by sea costs Moscow about three
- times more than it did by rail. This
- isn't a slow decline. It's a freef fall
- dressed up as logistics. Now, publicly,
- 5:00
- the Kremlin insists everything's fine,
- that the situation is under control.
- They always say that. But behind the
- curtain, their own economists are
- panicking. Because this isn't just a
- hiccup, it's a chokeold. That corridor
- through Lithuania wasn't just a supply
- route. It was a loophole, a quiet way
- for Russia to keep its Western
- territories running, even under
- sanctions. fuel, metals, electronics,
- all the things that were supposed to be
- blocked from export, they still found
- their way through until now. And that's
- why this moment matters. Lithuania
- didn't just stop trains, they closed the
- loophole. The numbers make it clear.
- Nearly 10% of Kenrod's imports vanished
- overnight. 400 freight cars stuck mid-
- route. Cargo backed up at the border
- like a clogged artery. And Moscow's
- response, bluster, threats. State TV
- calling it a blockade. But it's not a
- blockade, it's enforcement. For once,
- the law is actually doing what it was
- meant to do. And the irony, it's that
- the loudest outrage is proof of how
- 6:00
- effective it is. Because if this didn't
- hurt, Moscow wouldn't care. You can
- almost feel the panic in how quickly
- they're trying to downplay it. Russian
- officials are promising alternative
- routes, maritime solutions, strategic
- resilience. But that's just paperwork
- talk for we don't have a plan. Ports
- like Baltisk and Usluga are already over
- capacity. The infrastructure just isn't
- there. You can't move tens of thousands
- of tons of cargo overnight without
- breaking the system. And that's exactly
- what's happening. Ships delayed for
- weeks. Warehouses full but disconnected.
- A supply chain built on geography
- suddenly out of reach. When you think
- about it, it's almost poetic. An empire
- that spent decades projecting power
- across borders now finds itself trapped
- by them. A country that once used trade
- as a weapon now feels what it's like to
- be on the other end. And the craziest
- part, it didn't take an army. It didn't
- take sanctions from Washington. It took
- one small country with the nerve to say,
- 7:02
- 'No, this time we mean it.' So yes, the
- trains are silent, the warehouses are
- empty, and the Kremlin's furious. But
- underneath all of that, there's a truth
- they can't spin away. Russia's so-called
- self-sufficiency was never real. It was
- always borrowed. Borrowed from neighbors
- who finally decided to collect. And if
- that doesn't make you rethink what power
- looks like in 2025, it should. Okay, so
- let's zoom in on the map for a second
- because this is where the story gets
- really strange. Kinenrad. If you've
- never heard of it, don't worry. You're
- not alone. Most people outside the
- region couldn't find it without a search
- bar. It's this small isolated patch of
- Russia on the Baltic Sea, squeezed
- between Poland and Lithuania. Now,
- here's the weird part. It's not
- connected to the rest of Russia at all.
- You can't drive there from Moscow
- without crossing a NATO border. It's
- about 600 km away from Russian soil,
- trapped inside the European Union. A
- leftover from World War II, once German,
- 8:02
- then Soviet, now Russian. A cold war
- relic that never really made sense
- geographically but made perfect sense
- politically. For decades, Kinenrod was
- Russia's western stronghold. It's got
- the headquarters of the Baltic fleet,
- missile bases, radar systems, basically
- a floating piece of the Kremlin's ego
- planted in Europe. About half a million
- people live there, most of them with
- family roots that trace back to Soviet
- resettlement after 1945. And every
- single one of them depends on supply
- lines that cross Lithuania. Until now,
- since Lithuania shut that corridor,
- Kinenrad has gone from fortress to
- island. Not surrounded by water,
- surrounded by politics. Let's talk about
- what that actually feels like. The
- trains that used to arrive daily full of
- fuel, metal, and building materials have
- stopped. Ports like Baltisk are
- struggling to handle the redirected
- cargo. Shipping costs up 240% in less
- than two weeks. Local gas stations are
- 9:00
- limiting purchases. Grocery stores are
- rationing cooking oil and sugar.
- Construction cranes hang still above
- half-built apartment blocks. On paper,
- Moscow insists everything's under
- control. But if you talk to people
- there, factory workers, shop owners, you
- get a different story. A worker from the
- port told an independent outlet, 'We
- used to unload ships. Now we wait.'
- Another said, 'We're still Russia, but
- it feels far away now.' That's the line
- that stuck with me. 'It feels far away
- now.' Because that's the part of this
- story that's not in the headlines. The
- human distance. Imagine waking up in a
- city that's part of your country, but
- suddenly you can't reach your country.
- Not by train, not by road, not by
- choice. You start to see what isolation
- looks like when it's not theoretical.
- Empty shelves, slower mail, news
- broadcasts filled with anger and denial,
- and behind all that noise anxiety.
- Kiningrad's dependence on Lithuania
- wasn't just logistical, it was
- existential. 80% of its imports came by
- 10:01
- land. Now less than a third of that is
- being replaced through seaw routes. And
- it's costing Moscow three times as much
- to move the same goods. Even Russia's
- own transport ministry has admitted
- quietly that the situation is
- unsustainable if it lasts more than 6
- months. That's bureaucratic language for
- we're running out of options. And here's
- where the symbolism gets impossible to
- ignore. Kiningrad was designed to
- project power. It was meant to say
- Russia is here inside Europe unmovable.
- But what it's showing now is the
- opposite. How fragile that presence
- really is. The fortress image worked
- when the trains were running, when the
- ships were docking, when Moscow could
- pretend that geography still obeyed its
- will. But cut off those lines and the
- fortress becomes a cage. You can see it
- even in the tone of Russian media. At
- first outrage, then denial, and now a
- kind of awkward silence because what can
- they really say? How does a superpower
- 11:00
- explain that a neighbor with 3 million
- people just locked its western outpost
- in a box and there's nothing it can do
- about it? The military implications are
- serious, too. Kinenrad hosts Iscander M,
- short range missiles capable of carrying
- nuclear warheads. It's home to Russia's
- Baltic fleet, the same one that used to
- patrol and intimidate neighboring NATO
- states. Now those bases are cut off from
- steady fuel and supply deliveries. Even
- refueling and maintenance schedules are
- being delayed. You don't need to be a
- strategist to see what that means.
- Russia's most militarized enclave in
- Europe has become its most vulnerable
- one. And still Moscow can't act. Any
- military response to Lithuania would
- mean crossing into NATO territory the
- very red line that Russia has spent 20
- years avoiding. So they're trapped
- strategically, geographically,
- psychologically. And that's what makes
- this story so striking. The Kremlin
- built Kinenrad to intimidate Europe. Now
- Europe's laws are intimidating
- Kalinenrad. A fortress built to project
- 12:01
- dominance is showing the limits of
- dominance itself. You can almost sense
- the irony hanging in the air. The place
- that was supposed to remind Europe of
- its vulnerability has become the proof
- of Russia's own. And there's another
- layer, a quieter one. The people living
- there, half a million residents caught
- in a standoff they didn't choose. Many
- of them were born after the Soviet Union
- collapsed. They don't remember the Cold
- War. They grew up with smartphones,
- cheap flights, trips to Poland, to
- Berlin. Now they're watching those
- connections disappear. It's not just
- goods that are being cut off. It's
- identity. For years, Kiningrad was
- marketed inside Russia as our window to
- Europe. Now it's the window that's being
- boarded up. And here's the thing about
- isolation. It doesn't just break
- economies. It reshapes loyalties. The
- longer people feel forgotten, the more
- they start asking forgotten by whom?
- That's the question. Moscow doesn't want
- echoing through Kinenrad's cafes and
- classrooms. Because if isolation
- 13:00
- continues, it won't just weaken
- logistics, it will weaken belief. The
- belief that Russia can protect its own.
- The belief that Moscow's power is
- inevitable. That belief is already
- thinning. You can feel it in the tone of
- residents who still whisper to
- reporters. Not anger, not rebellion,
- just fatigue. a slow, heavy realization
- that their lives are being shaped by
- decisions made hundreds of kilometers
- away. Decisions they can't influence by
- people they'll never meet. That's the
- quiet part of power collapsing. It
- doesn't always happen with explosions.
- Sometimes it happens in silence, in the
- gap between promise and reality.
- Kinenrad, for all its military hardware
- and patriotic billboards, is learning
- that lesson in real time. And for the
- Kremlin, that's the most dangerous
- outcome of all. Not a rebellion, not an
- invasion, just doubt. Because once doubt
- creeps in, fear stops working. And
- without fear, authoritarian power has
- nothing left to stand on. So yes,
- 14:01
- Kinenrad still looks like a fortress on
- the map. But if you listen closely, it
- sounds like an island one slowly
- drifting away from the mainland that
- built it. So now, let's talk about
- what's happening inside the Kremlin.
- Because while the rest of the world
- watches freight cars gather dust on
- Lithuania's border, there's another kind
- of gridlock forming. This time inside
- Vladimir Putin's head. It's a strange
- thing to say about a man who's ruled for
- more than two decades. But right now,
- he's trapped not by soldiers or
- sanctions, but by his own image. Putin's
- entire system is built on control, on
- the idea that nothing surprises him,
- that every crisis is part of a plan only
- he can see. But what happens when the
- chaos starts coming from the outside and
- there's no plan that fits? That's where
- he is tonight. His advisers are split.
- Some want to hit back hard cyber
- attacks, trade retaliation, maybe a show
- of force near the Baltic. Others warn
- that any move across a NATO border could
- be catastrophic. And the irony here,
- 15:02
- they're both right. Retaliate and he
- risks starting a war he can't win. Do
- nothing and he looks weak. something he
- spent 20 years convincing Russians he
- never is. It's a no-win scenario dressed
- as strategy. You can almost imagine
- those meetings, the long tables, the
- rehearsed loyalty, the silence that
- feels like static. Everyone waiting to
- see how the president interprets this
- moment as threat or opportunity,
- humiliation or revenge. For years, Putin
- has thrived on crisis. He needs them.
- They give him the narrative he wants
- Russia surrounded, Russia defiant,
- Russia fighting back. But this time, the
- crisis doesn't play by those rules
- because this one exposes something he
- can't spin away. A small democracy
- 1/30th his country's size just told him
- no. And he can't change it. He can't
- bomb it without crossing NATO. He can't
- buy it without EU oversight. He can't
- bully it without showing the world that
- his power depends on fear, not respect.
- 16:01
- That realization, that's the real
- damage. It's not economic, it's
- psychological. Inside Russia, the cracks
- are spreading, inflation's rising,
- imports are collapsing, people are
- tired. Not rebellious, just tired, and
- fatigue is the one thing authoritarian
- governments never know how to handle
- because fear keeps people obedient. But
- exhaustion makes them stop listening.
- Even inside the Kremlin, you can feel
- it. That subtle drift from conviction to
- doubt. Advisers whispering. Bureaucrats
- hedging. Oligarchs quietly moving their
- assets west just in case. Nobody
- defects. Nobody shouts. They just start
- planning for the day after. And that's
- how autocracies begin to unravel. Not
- with a bang, but with preparation.
- Putin's strength has always been the
- illusion of inevitability. The sense
- that he always gets what he wants in the
- end. Georgia, Crimea, Syria, each one
- fed the myth. But this time, the myth is
- starving. Because what does he get out
- of this? A stranded enclave, a public
- 17:03
- humiliation, and a reminder that even
- the smallest NATO member can hold his
- empire hostage with a single border
- post. That's not control, that's
- exposure. He can threaten Lithuania all
- he wants. He can call it a provocation,
- an act of war, a western conspiracy. But
- the more he shouts, the smaller he
- sounds. Because the world is starting to
- see what he sees in private, the limits
- of his reach. And here's where it gets
- uncomfortable. For autocrats, losing
- control isn't just political, it's
- existential. Everything depends on
- performance. The image, the projection,
- the myth. Once people stop believing the
- myth, the spell breaks. We've seen this
- before, not just in Russia. It's the
- same story in every regime that builds
- its power on fear. The moment people
- stop fearing you, they start seeing you.
- And what they see is just a man. Right
- now, Putin's facing that moment. And
- it's not coming from tanks or sanctions.
- 18:01
- It's coming from a small country that
- decided to enforce the rules. From a
- continent that stopped flinching, from
- the reflection in his own mirror that no
- longer looks invincible. The truth is,
- he can't retaliate without risking
- survival. He can't ignore it without
- admitting weakness. He's trapped in a
- feedback loop of his own design. The
- strong man who can't afford to show
- fear, but can no longer hide it. Inside
- his circle, loyalty is starting to sound
- rehearsed. Support feels conditional.
- And somewhere beneath all the theater,
- there's an awareness, quiet, but
- spreading that this might be the
- beginning of the end of something. Not
- because someone overthrew him, not
- because the West finally found the
- perfect sanction, but because power
- built on fear can't survive when the
- fear starts to fade. And tonight, as the
- lights burn in those long Kremlin
- hallways, that's what's happening. Not a
- coup, not a collapse, just the slow,
- unmistakable erosion of control. It
- 19:01
- doesn't make headlines like a missile
- strike, but in the history books, this
- this moment might matter more. Something
- fascinating is happening across Europe
- right now. And you can almost miss it if
- you're only watching the surface. The
- press releases, the diplomatic
- statements, the predictable outrage from
- Moscow. But beneath that noise,
- something has shifted quietly,
- permanently. For years, Europe managed
- its relationship with Russia through a
- kind of uneasy ritual. Energy for
- silence, trade for stability, fear
- disguised as diplomacy. Everyone knew
- the balance was fragile, but they kept
- it. anyway because it worked until it
- didn't. Lithuania's decision to shut the
- Kiningrad corridor might look like a
- local story. But across the continent,
- it's being read as something far bigger,
- a line in the sand. In Warsaw, in Ria,
- in Talin, leaders who once measured
- their words carefully when talking about
- Moscow now speak with a new kind of
- certainty. One Polish official put it
- this way. Lithuania didn't just close a
- 20:02
- border, they reopened Europe's spine.
- And that's exactly what it feels like, a
- continent remembering what it stands
- for. You can see it in the numbers, too.
- In the last year, Europe has cut its
- dependence on Russian gas by over 70%.
- New energy agreements with Norway, the
- US, and Qatar are replacing what once
- came through gasprom pipelines. Solar
- installations are doubling. Germany
- Germany is reopening nuclear discussions
- it once swore were over. These aren't
- just policies. their confessions, an
- admission that the old way of managing
- power quietly and carefully is over. The
- speed of this transformation is
- staggering. And honestly, it's not
- coming from Europe's biggest players.
- It's coming from its smallest ones, from
- the Baltic states, from Poland, from
- Finland, from countries that remember
- what occupation looks like up close.
- Because when you've lived through being
- controlled, you recognize the first
- signs of someone trying to control you
- 21:02
- again. And this time they're saying no.
- For years, the European project was
- criticized for being bureaucratic,
- divided, sluggish, a place where big
- ideas went to die in committees. But not
- this time. Right now, the EU and NATO
- are moving with a unity that would have
- been unthinkable a decade ago. Sanctions
- that once took months to negotiate are
- being drafted and passed in weeks. Even
- countries known for caution like Austria
- or even France are aligning behind a new
- moral consensus. And it's not just
- governments. Public opinion has changed,
- too. Polls show record for defending
- Ukraine, for expanding sanctions, for
- rethinking what security really means.
- In Finland, more than 80% of citizens
- now back NATO membership, a number that
- would have been unimaginable just 3
- years ago. It's as if the whole
- continent looked at Lithuania's act and
- thought, 'If they can stand up to
- Moscow, why can't we?' That's the power
- of example. It's not loud, but it's
- 22:01
- contagious. And it's not about
- anti-Russian sentiment. It's about
- self-respect, about finally breaking the
- idea that Europe's stability must depend
- on someone else's aggression. There's
- something almost poetic in how this
- happened. For decades, power in Europe
- was measured in military budgets and
- industrial output. Now it's measured in
- moral weight. And the countries that
- used to be described as small Lithuania,
- Estonia, Latvia suddenly look enormous
- in that light. Think about it. These are
- nations that were occupied within living
- memory. Their grandparents survived
- goologs and mass deportations. Their
- parents rebuilt democracy from rubble.
- And now their children are the ones
- showing the rest of Europe what courage
- actually looks like. That's not
- strategy. That's history coming full
- circle. And maybe, just maybe, that's
- what unsettles Moscow most. Not the
- sanctions, not the logistics, but the
- idea that Europe has rediscovered its
- sense of purpose. And it didn't come
- 23:00
- from its richest nations. It came from
- the ones that remember what fear feels
- like. In Brussels, diplomats are
- starting to call this moment the Baltic
- effect because it's changing how Europe
- defines leadership. It's no longer about
- who has the biggest economy or the
- loudest voice. It's about who acts first
- when it counts. And there's a lesson in
- that for the entire West. That courage
- scales. One small act of defiance, one
- border closure, one decision to enforce
- the law can ripple outward and reset the
- entire balance of power. Lithuania
- didn't need to fight a war. It just
- needed to keep its word. And in doing
- so, it reminded an entire continent that
- unity isn't a slogan. It's a decision.
- One you make when it's hardest. When it
- costs something. That's the Europe we're
- seeing now. Not the complacent one, not
- the divided one, but the one that
- finally understands what it stands to
- lose if it looks away. And maybe that's
- what this story is really about. A
- continent that stopped whispering and
- started speaking in one voice. Not with
- 24:00
- anger, but with resolve. Because history
- doesn't only remember who fires the
- first shot. It remembers who draws the
- first line. So, here we are. A border
- closed, a supply line cut, a superpower
- suddenly aware of its own limits. And
- what's remarkable, what's quietly
- extraordinary is how small the moment
- looked at first. Just a few trains
- stopped on a Lithuanian border, a
- customs ruling, a paperwork change. But
- sometimes history hides in the quiet
- things. Sometimes the sound of an empire
- shifting isn't a roar. It's the silence
- of trains that never arrive. For
- decades, Russia's influence moved like a
- shadow across Eastern Europe. It wasn't
- always visible, but everyone could feel
- it. Through energy, through
- intimidation, through the kind of memory
- that lingers for generations, that
- shadow felt permanent, unbreakable. And
- yet, here we are watching the light come
- back. Lithuania didn't defeat Russia.
- That's not what this is. What they did
- was something more subtle and maybe more
- profound. They revealed the limits of
- 25:01
- fear. They showed that power built on
- intimidation only works when people
- still believe in it. And tonight, fewer
- people do. Kiningrad, that once proud
- symbol of Russia's reach into Europe,
- now sits isolated. Its ports overworked,
- its shelves thinning, its people
- waiting. It's no longer a fortress. It's
- a mirror. And what it reflects back to
- Moscow isn't strength. It's fragility.
- Because this is how empires fade. Not
- with surrender, not with a treaty, but
- with erosion. piece by piece, choice by
- choice, until one day the world looks up
- and realizes the giant isn't standing
- anymore. Europe, for all its
- imperfections, has found something it
- had almost forgotten. Resolve. Not the
- loud flag waving kind. The quiet
- collective kind. The kind that doesn't
- wait for permission. And if you step
- back, really step back, you can see the
- larger picture forming. A small nation
- enforces the law. A border closes. An
- 26:00
- empire flinches and the world shifts one
- inch at a time. It's not over, of
- course. There will be retaliation.
- Propaganda, more bluster from Moscow.
- There always is. But something
- irreversible has happened here. The fear
- that once defined Europe's relationship
- with Russia broke. And once fear breaks,
- it doesn't heal easily. That's what
- makes this story matter. Not the
- economics, not the politics, not even
- the borders, but the psychology. The
- moment when intimidation stopped
- working. So yes, it started with freight
- cars and sanctions. But it ends here
- with the realization that courage when
- shared can outlast empires. And that's
- something history will remember. Not as
- a battle, not as a revolution, but as a
- choice. Because power doesn't vanish
- overnight. It fades. And sometimes it
- fades quietly.