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CANADA WHAT IS HAPPENING TO ESSENTIAL LUMBER? The Brief Reporter: BREAKING: Trump FREAKS OUT as Carney Flips the Lumber Crisis — U.S. Housing Takes the Hit PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrX7mKA9Z8
BREAKING: Trump FREAKS OUT as Carney Flips the Lumber Crisis — U.S. Housing Takes the Hit The Brief Reporter 2.15K subscribers Aug 7, 2025 #trumptariffs #DonaldTrump #ChinaTradeWar BREAKING: Trump FREAKS OUT as Carney Flips the Lumber Crisis — U.S. Housing Takes the Hit Trump slapped a 35% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, expecting Canada to fold under pressure. But Prime Minister Carney flipped the script, launching a $1B support plan and redirecting lumber into domestic housing. Now, U.S. homebuilders are facing skyrocketing costs, and construction delays are piling up. In this episode, we break down how Canada’s bold pivot turned Trump’s trade war into a domestic crisis — and why the U.S. housing market may be the first casualty. Disclaimer: This video's content reflects the author's personal beliefs based on the information and research at hand. It is not a proposal for policy or financial advice. The Fair Use concept governs the use of third-party content for analysis, commentary, and teaching. This video uses AI-generated voices and images. Updates to policies and changes in the market could cause information to change. Before making choices, viewers should do their own research. #trumptariffs #DonaldTrump #ChinaTradeWar #breakingnews #TheBriefReporter #g7summit2025 How this content was made ... Altered or synthetic content Sound or visuals were significantly edited or digitally generated. Learn more The Brief Reporter 2.15K subscribers Videos About Trump Stunned As He Tries to Corner Canada, But It Backfires — Here’s How Carney Plays the Long Game ... by The Brief Reporter 1 MIN AGO: Trump Tries to Corner Canada, But It Backfires — Carney Turns Minerals into Leverage ... by The Brief Reporter BREAKING: Trump Goes Nuts As His Steel Tariff on Canada Backfires — U.S. Automakers Feel the Pain ... by The Brief Reporter by The Brief Reporter 138 Trump China Tariffs Update by The Brief Reporter 8 Comments Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess Transcript 0:00 For decades, the United States has alternated between confrontation and collaboration, frequently applying unfounded, counterveailing, and anti-dumping duties against Canadian softwood. Let's be clear, Canada does not dump lumber into the United States. When President Trump raised tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber to nearly 35% this August, he claimed Canada was dumping cheap wood into the US market. But the numbers tell a deeper story. Nearly 70% of softwood lumber imported into the US comes from Canada, a supply chain that's been built over decades to support everything from new home construction to disaster recovery in states like California. What Trump didn't say is that the US logging industry isn't built to replace that supply. The country may have the trees, but not the sawmills or the workforce. According to interviews on Fox Business with industry experts, it would take 5 to 10 years to scale up domestic milling capacity. And that's if federal 1:01 regulations on forest access were loosened, which remains politically and legally uncertain. The counterveailing duties that are set to go up very soon, this ludicrous section 232 investigation. And so we could be dealing with duties and tariffs combined well over 35%. I think Americans are going to be finding out very shortly the impact that these duties are going to be having on them. The effects won't stay in spreadsheets. They're already hitting home, literally. Economists from sources like Investopedia project that rising lumber costs could push construction expenses up by 10 to 15%. In wildfireprone areas like California, where rebuilding is urgent, that means families face higher prices, longer delays, and fewer options. And it's not just disaster zones. From suburbs in Texas to apartment projects in Illinois, developers are reconsidering timelines and budgets. Trump once promised to 2:02 build more homes to address the housing crisis. But his tariff strategy may now be one of the very reasons why new housing becomes less affordable. The forest industry is a pillar of the Canadian economy. Today, I'm announcing a series of new measures to help the softwood lumber industry pivot to a growing Canadian market and to the markets of reliable trading partners around the world. In Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney didn't lash out. Instead, he redirected His government unveiled over1 billion Canadian dollars in support for the softwood lumber industry. A package made up of loan guarantees, grants for product diversification, and workforce support. The largest portion, 700 million Canadian dollars, will be accessible even to small and medium-sized firms struggling with liquidity after 8 years of trade uncertainty. But Carney's move wasn't just financial, it was strategic. He 3:02 tied the support directly to a new $25 billion federal home building program launching this fall. Canadian lumber won't sit idle. It will be used to build affordable housing at home. The message is clear. If the US won't take Canadian lumber under fair conditions, Canada will create its own demand. Now, the US could increase the amount that it imports from countries like Germany or Sweden in terms of just softwood, but they do not have enough to completely replace how much we get from Canada. The US may impose tariffs, but it can't easily walk away from Canadian lumber. Alternative suppliers like Sweden or Germany simply don't have enough capacity to fill the gap. Meanwhile, US mills are already operating at full throttle with no surge capacity to speak of. That's why Canada's calm response speaks volumes. Carney's team is shifting toward diversification with new 4:01 trade missions to Vietnam and Japan and a renewed push to expand Canada's market reach. As BC Forestry Minister Ravi Parmar put it, 'The US will soon feel the consequences, not just in trade figures, but in the real world cost of wood, homes, and materials Americans rely on. What Trump framed as a hardline trade maneuver may turn into economic self-sabotage. Canadian lumber producers now have capital to survive, time to adapt, and political backing to pivot. Carney's government is even preparing workforce transition programs to support 6,000 workers. Not because the industry is collapsing, but because it's evolving. And as Canada pushes forward, the pressure is quietly building on Trump. Higher prices, frustrated developers, and mounting costs for US consumers all point to the same reality. Canada didn't blink, it built. As Trump doubles down on tariffs, Canada 5:00 is building resilience. And in this standoff, it's not always the loudest side that's winning. Sometimes it's the side that simply keeps building. Uh we're working very diligently with Europe, the EU, which covers a lot of ter, you know, a lot of territory, a lot of countries. We haven't we haven't really uh we don't have a deal with Canada. We haven't been focused on. Just days before his self-imposed August 1st deadline, President Donald Trump said it out loud. The US hasn't really been focused on Canada and might not even reach a trade deal. It wasn't just a shrug. It was a statement of disregard. In the middle of highstakes negotiations, Trump dismissed America's largest trading partner as an afterthought. He hinted Canada could simply pay the tariffs with no real negotiation. To many in Ottawa, this wasn't a threat. It was a signal. Because unlike his approach with Japan or the UK where pressure was carefully escalated, this moment revealed 6:00 something else. Impatience. And that impatience may have just handed Canada a strategic edge. Yeah. And the first thing everyone needs to do is exhale. Because what the president just said there actually lines up very consistently with what we heard from Canada's uh negotiators on this. For weeks, the Canadian government has worked to manage public expectations. Prime Minister Mark Carney, Minister Dominic Leblanc, and Ambassador Kirsten Hillman have all echoed one message. Canada won't rush into a bad deal. Trump's public remarks ended up confirming that very narrative. When the US president openly admitted a deal may not happen, he gave Canada cover. Now, if talks break down, Ottawa won't take the blame because Washington walked away first. It's a rare case where silence from Canada was matched by a loud concession from the other side. For Ottawa, that's a communications victory, even without a signed agreement. 7:02 Trump's comments also put his own trade team in a difficult position. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik and US Trade Representative Jameson Greer have been actively engaging with Canada, describing talks as constructive and productive. LeBlanc has spent days in Washington meeting with senators and senior officials. Yet, as his own officials were making progress, Trump sent a different message to the world. Negotiations might not matter at all. This internal contradiction weakens the American position. It allows Canadian officials to question who holds the real authority and to sloww walk discussions until a coherent US stance emerges. The more fractured the American message, the more leverage Canada gains. But perhaps the biggest consequence of Trump's remarks won't be felt this week. It'll come in 2026. Under the terms of the USMCA, the agreement must undergo a mandatory review that begins with a free trade commission meeting expected by late 8:01 2025. Trump's team has already signaled plans to use that review to push for stricter origin rules, immigration clauses, and supply chain controls. However, if the US imposes 35% tariffs on Canada now without achieving a negotiated outcome, that strategy may backfire. Canada and Mexico will be able to argue that tariffs have already failed as leverage. Worse, Trump may find himself entering the 2026 review with less credibility and fewer tools. Meanwhile, Canada is preparing its own parallel track. A proposed security and economic agreement to solidify its defense commitments and regional cooperation. That deal, still in early stages, could give Ottawa a new foundation for talks and weaken Trump's ability to dominate the agenda. What looked like a warning, may actually be a leak. Trump likely believed he was turning up the pressure. But by speaking too soon and undercutting his own negotiators, he exposed the cracks in 9:01 his trade strategy. He gave Canada a narrative it can control, a pace it can set, and a reason to delay until the balance shifts. There's still time for a deal, but if there isn't one, it won't just be Canada that pays the price. Trump's own credibility heading into 2026 may be what gets taxed next. They call it pink gold. Pod ash is a vital ingredient for growing food. And Canada production volume. It's now being touted as a secret weapon in this trade war with the United States. Join. The countdown is on. Canada and the United States are deep in trade talks, facing a hard deadline, August 1st. If no deal is reached, President Trump has vowed to impose a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports. It's not just a threat. It's already been formalized in writing. Behind closed doors, Prime Minister Mark Carney is walking a tightroppe. On one side, Canada's 10:00 economy still heavily tied to the US market. On the other, a US president who's turned tariffs into a political weapon. Carney's strategy has been quiet but deliberate. He's paused Canada's digital services tax, offered symbolic defense cooperation through the US missile shield program, and tried to avoid any public confrontation. But now, many in Canada believe that's not enough. They say it's time to put real pressure on Trump. And one word keeps coming up, potach Gulf Islands member of parliament, Elizabeth May. She's calling on Carney to continue collecting the digital sales tax. is also pitching stopping the $4.9 billion exportation of Canadian potach, a key ingredient for fertilizer to American farmers. Potach is a key ingredient in fertilizer. Without it, global food production would shrink dramatically. According to the food and agriculture organization, over 50% of the world's food supply depends on fertilizers and 11:02 potach provides the potassium that makes them effective. Canada holds the largest reserves of potach on the planet with most production centered in Saskatchewan. The United States by contrast produced only around 400,000 metric tons of potach in 2023 while consuming more than 5.3 million tons. The numbers speak for themselves. The US depends on Canadian potach and that makes it different from other traded goods. Cars, aluminum, even semiconductors can be sourced elsewhere. But with Russia and Bellarus, the two other major global suppliers, facing sanctions or instability, Canada is essentially the only reliable source left, any disruption could push fertilizer prices up and with it the cost of food across North America. That's why some Canadian leaders are calling for action. They want the federal government to put potach on the negotiating table, not just as a commodity, but as a bargaining chip. One 12:00 proposal includes halting the $4.9 billion in potach exports to the US entirely. Another suggests creating a national strategic reserve supported by public investment through bonds, an idea costed by Canada's parliamentary budget office during the 2025 federal election. Their logic is simple. If Trump is using pain as leverage, Canada should do the same. And if that pain touches US farmers, one of Trump's most loyal constituencies, it may force a recalibration in Washington. But the simple logic is if the price of the fertilizer goes up that much, yeah, food prices, everything goes up and yeah, it's food. There's a risk in weaponizing potach. It's not just another industrial input. It's tied directly to food supply, inflation, and food security. Disrupting potach shipments could hurt not only US farmers but ripple through the global economy. Industry leaders in Saskatchewan warned that tariffs and 13:00 trade barriers on potach are different. Unlike cars or steel, potach is not optional. It's essential. That's why some argue Canada doesn't need to issue threats. The numbers alone, the dependency, the market imbalance are powerful enough. The mere possibility of disruption may be all the leverage Canada needs. Trump thrives on confrontation. He pushes hard, expecting others to blink. But this time, he may have met a different kind of resistance. Not loud, not angry, but strategic. Pontach isn't just Canada's economic strength. It's America's agricultural lifeline. Whether Canada uses it openly or quietly, it may be the one card strong enough to bring Trump back to the table. Not with bluster, but with a deal. Selva that Brazil will respond in kind with its own tariffs if the US goes through what it wants to do by August 1. Your thoughts? President Donald Trump's secondterm trade doctrine has entered a volatile 14:00 phase. In recent weeks, the administration has issued formal notices to a string of trade partners. 35% tariffs on Canada, 30% on Mexico, 50% on Brazil. These aren't just economic decisions. They are calculated power plays and the world is responding. Rather than strengthening American leverage, Trump's tariff blitz is hardening resistance. Countries that once depended on US trade are now coordinating responses and in some cases turning away altogether. We both agree that it is essential to respect the USMCA trade agreements and we shared our experiences about the letter we received from President Trump. One of the clearest signs that Trump's pressure is backfiring came this week when Canada and Mexico publicly pledged to strengthen bilateral trade. Both countries confirmed they had received tariff letters from the US, 35% for Canada, 30% for Mexico, set to take 15:00 effect August 1st if negotiations fail. In response, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Shinbomb agreed to deepen economic cooperation. Carney is expected to visit Mexico in the coming weeks to formalize joint strategies. For two neighbors long tied to the US through the USMCA, this pivot marks a significant realignment. Rather than fracture, Trump's tariff threats are pushing America's closest allies to close ranks without the US. Consider that maybe for the last 50 years, we are going through the the worst moment in the relation between Brazilian and Washington. Tensions are even sharper further south. Brazil was hit with the steepest tariff, 50% on all exports to the US, up from 10% announced in April. Trump framed the move as retaliation for what he called political persecution of former Brazilian President Jaier Bolsinaro, who faces charges for his role in the 16:01 January 2023 coup attempt. Brazilian President Louise Inasio Lula D Silva rejected the move as an act of political interference. His administration immediately activated a new fast response tariff mechanism authorizing counter tariffs against US goods. According to Brazil's Ministry of Development, only 12% of Brazilian exports are destined for the US, allowing the country to redirect trade with minimal disruption. The sectors affected include oil, orange juice, coffee, and steel. While the economic exposure is manageable, the diplomatic damage is real. Lula has publicly signaled a shift toward deeper ties with BICRs nations and Asian partners. A trend accelerated by Trump's moves. This is unilateralism and it's highly personalistic. It's President Trump because he doesn't like somebody. And um you know and and I think it has very severe implications for US relations 17:00 with Latin America. The ripple effects go beyond Brazil. In Colombia, relations have deteriorated rapidly after allegations emerged, linking US figures to an attempted political plot. Trump responded by recalling the US ambassador and threatening to revoke Colombia's drug cooperation certification, a move that could cut vital aid. But instead of backing down, President Gustavo Petro has pushed back. His administration is now exploring deeper ties with BRICS institutions, including development financing outside the US orbit. Across Latin America, a quiet realignment is underway. Countries are looking to diversify trade, reduce political exposure, and limit dependency on Washington. Trump's aggressive stance may be aimed at asserting dominance. But the region's reaction suggests it's having the opposite effect. I mean, is it a political failure for the prime minister if if Canada ends up at some level of tariffs at the end of this, or is it just the reality of dealing with Donald Trump? 18:01 What began as a strategy to strengthen US leverage is now showing signs of unraveling. Rather than forcing deals on America's terms, the tariff campaign is driving partners together and away from Washington's orbit. Canada is no longer negotiating alone. Mexico is no longer avoiding alignment. Brazil, once neutral, is openly confronting US influence. And in Europe, even close allies are preparing for long-term trade diversification. For the Trump administration, the short-term political optics may still resonate with parts of the domestic base, but the long-term cost is rising. Fractured trust, declining diplomatic capital, and global supply chains that are learning to work around, not through, the United States. The real impact of these tariffs may not be in what they tax, it may be in what they break. Let's talk about the framework trade deal that was reached between the US and the EU yesterday. Uh Emanuel Macron has 19:01 said that the the deal is a dark day for Europe. Don't know if the exact numbers will be the same that Canada will get in so far as we are witnessing in Europe a deal that is not good for Europe. Donald Trump just signed another trade deal. this time with the European Union. It wasn't subtle. A 15% tariff across most goods, hundreds of billions in energy purchases and investment into the US economy, a flashy handshake in Scotland, and not a single mention of Canada. That silence speaks volumes. Canada is the United States largest trading partner by many measures, but this time it's not being prioritized, and that's not an accident. It's a strategy. For Trump, trade isn't just about economics. It's about optics and leverage. The EU gave him a global headline and billions in buying commitments. Canada doesn't offer that kind of short-term political payoff, so it's pushed aside. 20:00 That doesn't mean Canada lacks leverage. It supplies 4 million barrels of oil per day to the US. It powers homes with crossber electricity. It provides critical inputs for American manufacturing from lumber to auto parts. But here's the problem. Those links are already in place. Canada can't promise more the way Japan or the EU can. It's already embedded in US supply chains. That makes it harder to turn existing value into a new deal that looks impressive on paper. Trump wants deals that are simple to sell. Buy American, pay tariffs, sign here. Canada's reality is more complex and less marketable. In this environment, complexity becomes a disadvantage. Buy a bunch of stuff from America and tariffs across the board. 15 20 18% 19% in one case. This is the challenge that partners are facing. This is the challenge that we are facing. I don't 21:00 believe there is going to be a great deal to be had on the table. Prime Minister Mark Carney knows this. That's why he's not rushing into anything. In his recent statements, Carney made it clear Canada will only accept a deal that works long-term, not just to avoid tariffs this week, but to protect its economic structure for the years ahead. Unlike the EU, Canada doesn't need to buy US energy. In fact, it's the exporter. That makes its position fundamentally different. Carney understands that copying the EU framework would be a mismatch, even if it buys short-term relief. Instead, his team is holding the line. They're managing public expectations, preparing for possible tariffs, and quietly aiming for a better opportunity, such as the scheduled USMCA review in 2026. It's a long game, and it's deliberate. The assurance for Canadian business, for Canadians, is we will only sign a deal that's the right deal that's a good deal for Canada. We're representing Canada. 22:03 Of course, there's pain in the short term. Canada's auto, steel, aluminum, and lumber sectors have taken hits, but the broader economy so far, it's proving resilient. According to CBC analysis, GDP only fell by 0.1% in April 2025 and may drop another 0.1% in May, far less than early projections. Many Canadian businesses imported goods ahead of tariff deadlines, blunting immediate shocks. And thanks to KSMA, over 90% of crossber trade still moves with minimal tariffs. The average effective rate remains around 2.3%. for now. That said, the situation is fragile. If the US imposes a 35% blanket tariff on August 1st, as Trump has threatened, the real stress test will begin. But even so, this moment offers clarity. Canada is facing a structural challenge and responding not with panic, but with 23:02 strategy. In Trump's world, countries line up, sign fast, and pay up. Canada isn't doing that. And it's not because it lacks options. It's because it's choosing not to play that game. Carney's refusal to rush is risky, but it's also calculated he's betting that protecting national interest, even at the cost of short-term pain, will serve Canada better than folding under pressure. The US may not see Canada as a priority. But that doesn't mean Canada is without power. It just means the path forward is longer and requires patience. Because in this trade war, waiting might be the boldest move of all.

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