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Date: 2025-08-20 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00028661

TRUMP BIGGEST LOSER Brian Tyler Cohen: Trump gets the news he's DREADED amid LA fallout PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LpKIXPHKJc
Trump gets the news he's DREADED amid LA fallout Brian Tyler Cohen Jun 11, 2025 4.44M subscribers ... 82,282 views Interviews with Brian Tyler Cohen Interview: Brian interviews G. Elliott Morris about the polling surrounding Trump's LA moves. Subscribe to G. Elliott Morris on Substack: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/ For more from Brian Tyler Cohen: Straight-news titled YouTube: / @briantylercohennews YouTube (español): / @briantylercohenespanol Order my #1 NYT bestselling book: https://www.harpercollins.com/pages/s... Newsletter: https://plus.briantylercohen.com Twitch: / briantylercohen Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/36UvEHs Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0066rKC... Twitter: / briantylercohen Instagram: / briantylercohen Facebook: / briantylercohen TikTok: / briantylercohen Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/briantylerco... Threads: https://www.threads.net/@briantylercohen How this content was made Auto-dubbed Audio tracks for some languages were automatically generated. Learn more Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess Transcript 0:00 i'm joined by the author of the strength and numbers substack Elliot Morris elliot thanks so much for coming on we have some news in terms of what the polling right now shows in terms of Donald Trump's uh deployment of his troops into uh Los Angeles here so can you give a little bit of information in terms of what that polling actually reflects yeah and thanks for having me on Brian look um the polling shows that the average American does not like when federal troops come into their neighborhood um to do any basically any sort of police action that they like are removed from so uh there's this new Yuggov poll that's out today for example uh and they ask US adults do you support Donald Trump deploying the National Guard to Los Angeles to you know do law enforcement efforts related to protests there uh and by a seven-point margin people say no they do not approve of sending the National Guard yuggov also asked 'Do you support sending the Marines there?' And people were even more opposed to that i imagine because 1:01 it evokes some sort of like you know real official like military action that Americans traditionally are averse to you know the military being deployed in their streets so that's a m I I imagine that's the association going on in their head so the difficult thing for me to reconcile is that is that Donald Trump wouldn't do something to to distract from his already failing agenda as it relates to this budget bill as it relates to his fallout with Elon Musk as it relates to stripping healthcare away from 14 million Americans and blowing up to the deficit to the tune of trillions of dollars wouldn't do something that's going to be at least in his mind as politically disadvantageous as those things you would presume that if we can if he can um spark some type of rebellion here and kind of get into a scenario that would do better for him that that would be preferable and so is this just backfiring on him in the sense that this is actually polling worse than he probably anticipated yeah look Donald Trump is not an idiot when it comes to 2:00 public opinion maybe in other ways but not when it comes to public opinion he like reads the polls he has people in the White House who are telling him where the public are on issues and he has a pretty good read of where they are on immigration that's why he's president um the thing that I think he's indexing on is the previous data i think people in the White House see that Trump has traditionally been uh approved of on immigration in general and when it comes to quelling violence in the street they have some experience dealing with that as well in ways that they think um go goes well for them and and and I'll also just add like the previous data we had on LA was about the protesters themselves yuggov also asked do you approve of the protesters doing the you know the things they're doing and Americans said no by a ninepoint margin they said no so what we have here is two sort of paradoxical findings we have first off uh the protesters are unpopular um but also people don't support sending in the national guard to deal with those protests so I think the 3:00 White House is probably at risk of overextending here in their treatment of these protesters um and that's more political than anything i don't think that has anything to do with with public opinion i think that's all politics all enforcement all posturing so is the goal here for Trump to try and incite such a response that the dissatisfaction with the protesters um outshines the dissatisfaction with the fact that he's sending in the National Guard and the Marines yeah i mean the traditional finding on this is that violence doesn't do well with the public and that's true from um from the police and that's also true from and and that's the difficult part here because there's violence happening on two fronts there is the violence being perpetuated by law enforcement that was sent in by Trump against the protesters but then there's also obviously unrest and we're seeing you know a few isolated um scenarios where there are cars being set on fire for example and so you have these two kind of contradictory um uh instances where there is violence but it's it's owed to two different fa political 4:01 factions yeah that's right so if the images that people are seeing on their screens at home are of you know protesters standing on burned down squad cars yeah that's a different image that's the image that Trump wants but that's a very different image than the ones of you know hundreds of guards standing in the same place facing down like small crowds of peaceful protesters i think that's you know that's the one that will end up eating at them if you you know if there's no more more of the violent unrest but as we know these situations can devolve pretty quickly on on both sides so um that's hard to predict is there any historical precedent here for example as it relates to Kenosha um the last time there was something similar uh that Donald Trump is kind of hanging his hat on or that we can um or that we can uh uh compare these results to yeah i mean Donald Trump's frame of reference here is that he was president during the BLM protest and some of the riots in 2020 and his frame of mind is like we sent in the 5:00 National Guard to deal with that and they think it worked well for them and uh the academic evidence suggests that in Kenosha Wisconsin uh after some of the violence there there was a small localized shift toward Donald Trump in other words there was a backlash to the violence in that protest but that's not true anywhere else in the country in 2022 the evidence from 2020 sorry from 2020 in in 2020 the evidence is that the protests on average helped Democrats they helped the cause so to speak um and by increasing support for Democrats and decreasing support for Trump the people presumably being being protested or wrapped up in in the protest sentiment so um I I'm thinking that you know if I'm in the White House right now my playbook is what I did in 2020 and I think that's what we're seeing just send in the National Guard to deal with it so given the fact that the Trump administration lost support in the BLM protest when they sent in the National Guard why would they repeat the same playbook that was ultimately detrimental to them yeah i I mean I think it's their political playbook it's their side's 6:01 playbook right among the people that they socialize with among you know what they're trying to accomplish which is you know like a forceful crackdown on immigration this is the playbook you try to try to use for that but I don't think it's informed by public opinion is this just red meat for the base then like he's not interested right now in June of an off year in kind of appealing to independents or even conservative Democrats he's just saying like 'Look I came in with with an agenda that I want to to perpetuate and that is this major crackdown on on big blue bastions within big blue states.' Yeah he he thinks that doing this part of his agenda the law the very firm law and order part not the like any of the other laws he's broken but this law and order part um is popular for him and it's going to win him support for doing the adjacent part of his agenda which is to deport everyone here illegally which also requires a lot of force so he can sell the public on this use of force against the protesters perhaps you can apply it to the use of force for immigration enforcement and I think that's the 7:00 calculation they're trying to make in their head do you have any idea of how Donald Trump is looking more broadly in terms of his polling and I ask on on two issues in particular and that is immigration and the economy he won the presidency in 2024 based on those two issues on he on how he was able to exploit those issues there's a ton of pain uh that Americans were contending with as it relates to high inflation and of course um the immigration the way that that Joe Biden handled immigration was a major vulnerability for him as well and so he came in office with major advantages on those two issues but we've seen uh those numbers kind of dwindle down and so where are we where are we at right now in terms of of his two perceived strengths uh from when he first came in office yeah so when Donald Trump took office there was about a 10 percentage point advantage for him on immigration so 10 percentage pe percentage points more people said they approved of him than disapproved of him and on the economy it was the same about about 10 percentage point advantage so he comes into office and he has some force of a mandate he would call it but he has the public on his side on on these issues right uh today there's a 8:01 three-point gap on immigration so smaller it's still an advantage but three but you know much smaller and he's 14 percentage points underwater on the economy and he's 20 percentage points underwater on inflation and I I think that represents a broader dissatisfaction among the public uh with all presidents or any president uh that we that would have an office right now on on the economy cost of living social mobility etc is just sort of terrible for a lot of people um and it represents some backlash to the administration on deportations uh which we know are going beyond the sanction uh of public opinion people don't want their grandma deported they don't want you know the person who lived next door for 20 years who's not a criminal immigrant uh or a convicted criminal especially not a convicted violent criminal deported they don't they don't want the person at the diner who serves them waffles deported right and I mean he he actually came in like you said with some degree of a mandate um but I think that was on the actual issues that he promised which is that he's going to go after hardened 9:00 criminals and we're seeing now as they've ramped up enforcement on these deportations that like if you're just waiting for for workers outside of a Home Depot if you're just plucking kids out of of schools if you're I mean there there was a few instances where where kids who are stricken with cancer are even being deported so if you're focusing on those people does that not just squander any of the mandate any of the goodwill that you engendered by by um coming in and saying that you're going to focus on one subset of people and then instead just broadening out to a whole swath of like of members in good standing of the community well the thing is you know Donald Trump basically sold the American people on a fiction with immigration he said there's tens of millions of violent criminals out there who are here illegally who we are going to round up and deport and it's going to It just wasn't true there just weren't the numbers to back it up yeah and and those people do not ex do not exist in the numbers that the Donald Trump administration promised them that they did and so they are having to you know they they have this goal from Steven Miller deporting 3,000 people a day which is just impossible um and to do 10:01 that they're going to have to deport a lot of people that aren't the people they promised because they don't exist in the right amount of numbers and that's going to cause that could cause backlash it seems to have caused some amount of backlash so far i think the idea is that uh for Democrats right now if they can sell the protests first off if if you know there's not as much violence going forward if they can sell the uh administration's actions with federal military troops um as enforcing that unpopular part of their agenda deporting the people that American citizens do want to stay here right um then they can score political points that way well one of those people who was wrongly deported was Kilmargo Garcia so what did the polling show with regard to that specific instance that we can you know obviously extrapolate into into a broader understanding of the popularity of his agenda yeah I mean we did two things around that time so this was in mid to late April what we did was we we looked at media attention to Kilmar Garcia and we looked at uh Donald 11:01 Trump's overall and his immigration specific approval rating and what you can see is basically there's a completely like inverse relationship between these things as media attention goes up Trump's approval rating falls and it falls to the lowest point of his cycle at exactly 2 days after media attention to Kil Mara Garcia is at its highest so you know that that would like be a feather in the Democratic cat right now they should say you know these you know we support law and order we want to you know build the border wall whatever give like the red meat to the base that needs to have red meat and then oppose the excessive deportations that that are unpopular and where we have some evidence uh that have moved the needle against Donald Trump and I think that's like a strong values position for the party and it's one that they've tested so far so it seems like the through line in everything that we've spoken about is that when we have instances of government overreach when we have instances where the where the Trump administration is illegally deporting somebody who shouldn't be deported because he wasn't given due process when 12:00 we have instances where Donald Trump sends in uh and federalizes the National Guard sends in the US Marines like those are the instances where Donald Trump actually faces a lot of backlash um that's reflected in the polling is that correct yeah people wanted orderly deportation of criminals that they had never met or that didn't you know that really didn't seem to exist from their neighborhoods from the people from the places around them and they wanted crime to fall as a result that's what they wanted everything else that they've got from the Donald Trump administration is not supported by the public and uh yeah plays into lots of like classical examples of of government overreach of a fear of government deploying military in your streets martial law even I These are not things that are traditionally considered popular in American politics the only reason we think that they could be popular is because it's on an issue that Donald Trump has previously had an advantage on elliot where can uh folks who are watching right now hear more from you yeah thanks Brian they can go 13:01 to the strength in numbers Substack website and that's just my name galiotris.com you can probably Google it'll be the first result I'm sure great i'll put that link right here on the screen and also in the post description of this video if you're listening on the podcast that'll be in the show notes as well elliot appreciate your time okay thanks Brian [Music]

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