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RUSSIA / UKRAINE WAR ADVANTAGE UKRAINE! Times Radio: Putin's regime threatened as Ukraine intensifies drone strikes on Moscow and Russian infrastructure Greg Bagwell, retired Air Marshal PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsEM0Tc9UC8 Peter Burgess COMMENTARY While the US under Trump leadership has become the ultimate 'loser', Ukraine is standing up to Putin in an impressive and heroic manner. I grew up in the UK in the 1940s and 1950s. Early in the war (WWII), Britain under the leadership of Winston Churchill was alone in atanding up to Hitler's 'Third Reich'. Five years later Britain and the 'allies' prevailed ... an event celebrated 80 years later this past May. In the United States this year, I watched a Memorial Day concert broadcast from Washington DC on PBS. The MCs did quite a lot of talking, but it came as a surprise that tje WWII started with the Japanese attack om Pearl Hrbour in December 1942. For purely economic reasons, I have lived in the United States since the late 1960s. It still shocks me that few Americans know much about world history ... or indeed any history! For the past 80 years the United States has been in a position to dominate global economics in its own interest. The power to dominate is lower now than at any time in my lifetime ... and Trump is going to be surprised at the impact this is going to have much sooner than the popular media expects! My impression is that Ukraine is 'gaining friends'. Meanwhile, Trump's America is losing friends in a way that has never happened in my lifetime! Peter Burgess
Putin's regime threatened as Ukraine intensifies drone strikes on Moscow and Russian infrastructure Times Radio May 29, 2025 1.44M subscribers ... 209,646 views ... 4.3K likes Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Ukraine's capability to hit Moscow with low cost drones and damage crucial oil and military infrastructure is a significant threat to Putin, says Greg Bagwell, retired Air Marshal and military airspace analyst on Frontline with Kate Gerbeau. Join this channel to get access to perks - / @listentotimesradio 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:00 these are relatively easy to make drones that are striking targets around Moscow and and and that must be a factor of huge embarrassment to the Russian armed forces and to Putin Now if he's trying to portray that he's got this under control and it's a special military operation limited to Ukraine um there must be quite a few people in Russia now reading their newspapers or waking up to the sounds of explosions or black smoke hanging over the suburbs of Moscow wondering what the hell's going on So I think the impact that this is having in particular is that psychological impact Now it would also help if they start taking out some of these drone factories and some of the sort of manufacturing capacity of Russia Uh that's certainly what they were trying to do when they were hitting the energy infrastructure a few months ago So so there is a there is a a thought behind this campaign as to what it's doing militarily but there is also a very very strong psychological edge to this that that how long in an authoritarian regime like Russia can 1:00 Putin continue to pedal the lie that this is a special military operation Hello and welcome to Frontline for Times Radio with me Kabo and we're joined for the first time today by the former deputy commander operations of the Royal Air Force Air Marshal Greg Bagwell served for 36 years in the RAF having joined as a combat pilot He subsequently oversaw operations combat operations in Iraq Afghanistan Libya and Syria He is president of the UK Air and Space Power Association and continues to mentor senior UK defense commanders Air Marshall Bagwell great to see you on front line Thank you for joining us Yeah Hi Kate And it's Greg Greg thank you They don't need the rank Well we'll keep it informal then shall we Um can we start by talking about the news announced by the German chancellor that Ukraine can now use the missiles that have been donated by the West at unlimited ranges How significant do you think that is Yeah it's very significant In fact the noise that Russia is making about it tells you all you need to know about how significant it is from 2:00 Russia's point of view but boy has this taken a long time We've we've been giving Ukraine weapons that have had the potential to reach targets within Russia for quite a long time but we haven't really given them permissions So uh this is another um loosening if you like of of some of the restraints that we've been placing on Ukraine And he went further after a meeting with President Zilinski announcing a partnership to help Ukraine produce its own long range weapons Are we talking about new weapons do you think and what might they be Yeah I I think we are talking about new weapons but of course Ukraine have done quite a lot of that on their own up till now Um but the idea therefore that western technology can now help Ukraine perhaps improve what they've already managed to do internally um has got to be a positive step I I I think it was kind of used as a little bit of a smoke screen because I think I think Western nations want to avoid being linked directly to targeting Russian targets in Russia um because of the sensitivities that brings in in terms of an escalation 3:00 But I think it's worth mentioning here that there's a thing called the arms trade treaty which funny old thing Russia hasn't signed Uh nor has Iran nor has North Korea which which does impose limits on nations providing other countries with weapons and ensures that everyone when they get them um complies with international humanitarian law and and that's what's an issue here And I don't think giving Ukraine weapons that will be used in self-defense against an aggressive act breaks any of those rules So I don't think we should be too shy here about um what we're giving them and what we should let them do And there has been no commitment or no public comment yet to supplying tourist missiles which we know the Ukrainians badly want from Germany I I guess the first we're going to know if they are used um supplied is when they're actually used Um how are we most likely to see that Yeah Well you what you'll see and we saw this with Storm Shadow a little bit when that first got introduced into the into the conflict is we'll see an attack against 4:01 something deep deeper into Russia that is clearly not a drone Um it will go a lot faster and hit a lot harder So and and will tend to be used against military targets that are a lot more hardened or a lot lot better protected So so there will be signs probably that that gives us clues that that's happened Um it it's um it's understandable that nobody really wants to make too much of a fuss about this but I think for Ukraine uh they will see this as very much um an ability to increase their capability We shouldn't forget and many your listeners may not realize this but Taurus is actually a derivative of the same missile Storm Shadow provided by the UK and Scalp provided by the French So So we're just talking about more of the same here rather than a completely new weapon So would it not actually change that much that Ukra Ukraine could do with it It will change because they'll have more of them and the permissions will allow them to go deeper and hit targets that perhaps previously we've been a bit nervous about approving 5:01 So um I I think this will be an ability for Ukraine to both increase the the numbers of attacks but also the um the depth of those attacks And it would also make the Kirch Bridge possible to attack The Kirch Bruce has for a long time been vulnerable to a variety of attacks whether it be one of these missiles which would be very good at taking out that bridge or even the the maritime drones that they've been using in some of their attacks against shipping So I think there's a more fundamental question about the bridge as to whether it's a toemic target um and as to whether that's seen as a step too far So so everybody's trying to control the escalation here whether it be Russia or Ukraine or even the West in providing systems But yeah the Kersh bridge is one of those toemic targets that you kind of wonder when it will happen and and what difference it will make Um of course one of the arguments for not taking out the Kersh is it it increases the need for Russia to maintain a land bridge to Crimea So um yeah there's a lot of factors at play with the bridge Russia 6:02 is widely regarded to be preparing for an offensive now in the north and southeast of Ukraine What capabilities does Ukraine have to target those troop concentrations from the air Mike Taus for example make all the difference Um it could do because it will be used against some of the targets that'll be a little bit further behind the lines Um whenever an enemy attacks a lot of the news items talk very much about the the attacks at the front line tanks troops in trenches etc and the artillery fire that's being um shared and of course the drones that are being used in in that fight They they tend to be the the headline grabbers But the really sensitive targets are the logistics nodes communication nodes the headquarters that are quite some way back from the front Um and by taking those out you really will blunt the attack a lot more effectively in the longer term So so what you'll what you'll be able to see now is a more sophisticated way of defeating some of those um incursions And a few days ago Russia conducted one of its largest 7:01 drone and missile attacks on Ukraine to date It followed three nights of record strikes How has it actually managed to step up its air war Well it's it's clearly learning some lessons from Ukraine and and both sides have have upped their manufacturing of some of these less expensive and and rather easily manufactured weapons They're pretty crude Um they they fail a lot They get shot down a lot but some get through and even the ones that you shoot down end up falling on the ground and cause damage which I think the news today was a a strike on Moscow that that's hit a a block of flats but it looks like the missile did that because it was hit by a Russian air defense missile So so there's a lot of iron work here being thrown at each other Um you've also seeing Iran who are obviously providing some of this technology also a non-signitary of the uh arms trade treaty Um and and what we're seeing with Russia is a very different type of attack um we're seeing it a little bit less discriminate and certainly against the population 8:00 effectively a terror weapon What you're seeing Ukraine trying to do is take out targets like energy um drone manufacturing factories etc So so they're trying to basically take some of the strategic depth of of Russia away from it An article in the Economist points to a rapidly increased production of drones by Russia from 300 drones a month last year to 300 now in just under three days What kind of pressure do you think this is actually putting on Ukraine Well it's sort of it's a sort of number of areas really What one of is clearly the pressure on the population which is really what Russia is intending to do here It's almost trying to sue uh for peace by by forcing Ukraine to to to give up effectively although Ukraine look like doing anything but Um so there's there's that strain on both the population you know people having to sleep in tunnels in the underground listening to the sound of drones and air raids night after night after night You know it's it's it's it's sort of is the bombing of London Second World War type 9:01 stuff This um that puts a strain on on the economy puts a strain on all the people that are fighting fires hospitals medics etc And then there's the strain on the air defense systems that are being used to intercept them and and if you're having to hit a relatively cheap drone with a relatively expensive missile you know the economics of this become stressful for obvious reasons So you're seeing Ukraine use a combination of high um sophisticated um defenses so the Patriot missile for example or some of the other sort of smaller missiles but also going back to sort of using machine guns and even helicopters shooting them down from the air So so we're seeing the full gamut here of of of counter measures um wi-i which will begin to take its toll And Russia has evolved though hasn't it in making those drones more capable of evading Ukraine's defenses and and in particular it's electronic warfare to carry out these kind of swarm attacks that we're seeing How is it doing that Yeah there's a number of things going on So so and we we use the word drone Unfortunately that 10:01 that word doesn't cut it anymore Drones can be anything from something you can buy on Amazon for a few hundred quid and and stick a grenade on to something relatively sophisticated that can fly sort of upwards of a thousand miles um and will have a GPS and autonomous guidance system etc etc So so we are literally seeing a sort of a whole new way of warfare being developed in in front of our eyes um the relatively crude systems ones that are flown literally using firstperson view so effectively someone using a controller and guiding it in using radio waves to talk to the drone Um those have become more vulnerable because what now is happening is they're being jammed The sort of signal from the controller to the drone is is effectively interrupted So we're beginning to see things like fiber optics suddenly become um more normal where that that is much harder to jam and effectively is almost impossible to intercept So so but obviously that's limited by the length of the fiber optic cable that you can lay as as the drone goes further and further towards its target Um and we will be seeing counter 11:01 measures that that that try and get round some of those jamming signals So yeah there's an entire almost silent war going on in the background here of of counter and counter measures And how long do you think it will be before Russia can actually attack with a thousand drones for example in one go What kind of challenge do you think that would present Well obviously you know I certainly don't want to give away any tactics or or or give Russia any clues but but Russia has a choice It can either manufacture more of these and it's obviously trying to um at a cost Um it can pause for a while save them up if you like and and then go with a mass attack later We have seen peaks and troughs So we see either where they've run out and they have to restock or or whether they've deliberately chosen to do a surge in in the way they attack Um anything that surges a higher number is going to put more stress on the air defenses and and in theory could be more likely to get through and succeed But but I think we've seen Ukraine be highly effective I mean the percentage of these 12:00 drones getting through to their targets are are sometimes in single digits Now sometimes unfortunately that single digits means 20 or 30 drones get through but but but it's not causing the impact on Ukraine's economy or its people that that Russia perhaps would would hope for Highly effective in intercepting these drones How has Ukraine have to adapt the way it defends itself against them Well I think it it does a number of things Firstly it some of it becomes predictable So either the nature of the targets uh particularly around some of the cities um nuclear power stations for example or or various parts of the country um air bases and other things So you you kind of know where they're going to hit you You kind of know what time they're going to hit you because we we see a pattern here of targeting effectively at night I think Russia probably largely does that because it thinks um that a it causes more disruption to the population but also they're a little bit harder to hit in the dark for obvious reasons Um so so so 13:01 there is a degree of predictability I think Ukraine has become very sophisticated at detecting the launches and then effectively warning people as to where the attacks are likely to take place So that that's the first battle if you like is is knowing what's coming at you And then it's a question of putting up the the layered defense that you need to then take those systems out as they arrive and and Ukraine will have a system which effectively has aircraft the furthest out then some of the longer range systems and then close in it we have things like people literally there with either handheld jammers or or handheld machine guns uh intercepting these at the last minute So um Ukraine is probably one of the most advanced countries now at being able to handle this albeit you know having to do it on a very demanding scale and also putting pressure on Ukraine to almost ration its use of Patriot missiles in defense um how great is the threat posed in that context by ballistic missiles Yeah ballistic missiles are a whole different ballgame and are much more difficult to 14:00 intercept So you do need something like a Patriot missile to even uh begin to look at those Now the good news is Russia hasn't used too many of those They'll be quite precious for them as well And and Russia does also need to think this through that that um you know NATO is sat behind here Um and if Russia has got designs on keeping pressure on NATO or or effectively becoming a a threat to NATO it needs to think very carefully about how much of its stuff it uses in the fight against Ukraine And we've already seen huge losses of people and material So um that will be a a very important factor for Russia I think it's one of the reasons we don't see their strike bombers participating greatly because they need those They're they're quite an important part of their national defense So so Russia is definitely keeping something back because it has to Um but yes we we we do see Ukraine having to think very carefully about how it husbands its assets to ensure it doesn't use the the good stuff if you will um in taking out some of the cheaper and less effective 15:00 missiles And to that point um is there an alternative do you see to the Patriot missile system that would be effective that we could provide to Ukraine Now yeah when you say we I mean the UK unfortunately this is not an area that we're well um we're well prepared Um the UK for the for the longest time now has has not been considering a threat like this Um and our defense investment has dropped accordingly Not only have we spent less money on defense over the decades we haven't spent an awful lot of it on on air defense systems What's going to be very interesting if indeed it is next week is is how the defense review tries to address that um because unless we are um you know unless we're able to uh to to start producing something of our own we don't really have anything to offer Ukraine in this area the one system that we have um that could help Ukraine unfortunately is on our ships Um and unless we're going to stick our ships in the Black Sea then then we aren't really able to help And what about other European allies Yeah 16:01 Well a lot of them use Patriot as well Um so so that there is a sort of a heavy reliance here on a single supply chain which of course is from America which brings its own challenges these days So um yeah there there is a lot of work going on within Europe and within NATO to now look at its own systems and to look at how it can now meet this threat on its own using its own productions and its its own systems So there's a lot of work to be done on on what we call in the military the integrated air and missile defense Um we've heard Trump talk about Golden Dome and we know about the Iron Dome in Israel We're talking about something similar Um unfortunately the title is is a bit misleading Um but what we are certainly talking about thickening our ability to defend against some of these threats particularly ballistic missiles Now you mentioned it earlier and Ukraine has also stepped up its aerial assaults on Russia in recent weeks Um it's closed multiple airports and targeted Russia's defense industrial base Russia's defense ministry said this week it had shot it had shot down 296 17:03 Ukrainian drones I mean obviously Ukraine has not commented on that What kind of impact do you think these strikes into Russia are having there Yeah Well the first thing to say is um it's not unusual for for military leaders in Russia to not quite tell the truth to their boss and and try and project shall we say the best possible outcomes Otherwise they're in big trouble and they don't last very long So so I I take what Russia says it's done with a pinch of salt The the fact of the matter is we are seeing Ukraine target with relatively unsophisticated systems Um they are increasing in their sophistication but but these are relatively easy to make drones that are striking targets around Moscow and and and that must be a factor of huge embarrassment to the Russian armed forces and to Putin Now if he's trying to portray that he's got this under control and it's a special military operation limited to Ukraine um there must be quite a few people in Russia now reading their newspapers or waking up to 18:00 the sounds of explosions or black smoke hanging over the suburbs of Moscow wondering what the hell's going on So I think the impact that this is having in particular is that psychological impact Now it would also help if they start taking out some of these drone factories and some of the sort of manufacturing capacity of Russia Uh that's certainly what they were trying to do when they were hitting the energy infrastructure a few months ago So so there is a there is a a thought behind this campaign as to what it's doing militarily but there is also a very very strong psychological edge to this that that how long in an authoritarian regime like Russia can Putin continue to pedal the lie that this is a special military operation And what do you know exactly about Ukraine's progress in developing more lethal drones that can fly deeper into Russia and build on that impact Yeah Well we do see it reported and Ukraine now um like to show off some of their capabilities So we've seen um shots of some of their new new drone capabilities I can't remember some of 19:00 the names but uh they they are certainly looking sleeker and and and a lot more um sort of um sophisticated What what we've seen up to now over the the first few years was literally off-the-shelf drones being adapted What we're now seeing is purpose-built drones that are that are effectively designed with the countermeasures already built in with the guidance systems and the and the technology and the explosive um part of the warhead which is still a key part of the the whole destruction mechanism as opposed to what was probably not far off what a model flying club would be operating just and strapped a bit of explosives on the front So so we are definitely seeing here systems that are both more sophisticated can go faster can go further and ideally can evade uh some of the air defense systems and it's clearly working because we are seeing these drones on you know camera footage that is readily available on social media reaching the suburbs of Moscow as a veteran of the RAF who who served for 36 years When you look at over the last 20:00 three four years of war in Ukraine into its fourth year now what do you think is the most interesting thing in terms of the air war when you look at the way it's evolved Yeah it might not be what your listeners think I what surprised me is how little air power has been utilized particularly by Russia Um you know on paper this should have been you know a complete mismatch It really should have been in terms of sheer numbers and and sheer capability Russia should have overwhelmed Ukraine's air defense system um with its air power and it hasn't done that Now the lesson from that for me is either Russia is holding it back and that could be true or it is frightened of losing it um and and therefore doesn't believe that it will be as effective and therefore they've gone for this much cheaper much more sustainable method which is to use these drones which actually aren't that effective You know their explosives is relatively limited Yes it causes damage and yes it causes casualties but it's hardly 21:01 bringing Ukraine to its knees We we see that every day So so that's probably my greatest lesson I think one of the lessons that a lot of people want us to learn is that drones are now the answer One of the stats I think I've heard put out by many including ministers is that you know 80 90% of the casualties are now created by drones not by artillery Yeah But but but that's actually a symptom not the cause And and because we have a very static effectively almost like a World War I trench warfare battle drones are able to exploit that static static battlefield because it's relatively close It's it doesn't move very fast And so you can use fiber optic drones over 10 20 kilometers If this was a war being fought over hundreds of miles at at at literally you know supersonic hypersonic speed which is is how NATO would do this um you would see a very different war and it and it would not have progressed as the way we've have So so there is a danger here of learning the wrong lessons as well that that we now need to copy what's going on 22:01 in Ukraine Well if we copy that what we're saying is we're up for a 5-year attritional war with Russia with hundreds of thousands of casualties And I'm not sure that's where we are And while any meaningful ceasefire negotiations are still far from reality and Russia stalls what can or will Russia and of course Ukraine try to achieve in this war on the ground and in the air to put them in the strongest position do you think Well and I think that's that's what's really the challenge at the moment is this on the bus off the bus peace negotiations You it just looks like delay followed by more delay Um Putin obviously feels that he has the control of the will of his people either because they all believe him or or they don't say otherwise So so Putin probably feels that in his authoritarian regime he he's got the whip hand and therefore everything he can do to increase the pressure increasingly take pieces of land or whatever he might be able to do to push 23:01 that line as far back as he can can only improve his own negotiating position What he also probably believes is that the longer this goes on and the longer there is disunityity between Europe America and Ukraine and he can continue to let that disunityity fester then then he will he will believe that that therefore it's less likely that the West and Ukraine are going to stand together up and against him whether that's through sanctions increased armed support or whatever Um so so at the moment time is on Putin's side it is not on Ukraine's side although Ukraine don't seem likely to capitulate straight away and I think this is quite important you the likes of JD Vance say you know Ukraine cannot win um that that's probably true militarily you know Russia is a large country with huge reserves it it's hardly going to see an incursion from Ukraine and and be unable to um to stop it forever although we have seen that recently um that that it took him an awful long time to get that little 24:01 bit back in the north of the uh of the region Um but what has to happen here is Russia just mustn't win and that means it's losing So so I think this idea that one side wins or the other side wins is a rather black and white way of approaching this If Russia can be forced to the position where it cannot seek any more advantage where its people no longer see that the reason that they're losing hundreds of thousands of people and losing their military and seeing their economy collapse in into one based primarily on on military need or recovering their weaker economy then the more likely it is that Russia will sue for peace So um yeah we we're in a very difficult situation at the moment where unfortunately Russia is being given the time and space to continue on its current strategy Greg Bagwell great to speak to you Thank you so much You're welcome Kate Thank you You've been watching Frontline for Times Radio If you'd like to know more about the war in Ukraine you can subscribe and sign up for a membership You can also get more 25:02 analysis by listening to Times Radio or read the Times.com But for now thank you for watching Bye-bye

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