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RUSSIA VIEW OF JASON JAY SMART ... MAY 31st, 2025 Jason Jay Smart: Russia’s Economic Crisis: The $395 Billion Debt Putin Can’t Hide PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhXjUOB29jQ Peter Burgess COMMENTARY I have stumbled across the daily reports of Jason Jay Smart, an expert of Russia but not able to work in Russia for securty reasons and now based in Kiev, Ukraine. The Russia he describes is very big, very weak and very corrupt. He applauds the efforts of Ukraine to take down Putin and his toxic regime. Enough said .. Jason Jay Smart is worth a read! Peter Burgess
Russia’s Economic Crisis: The $395 Billion Debt Putin Can’t Hide Jason Jay Smart May 31, 2025 78.4K subscribers ... 59,589 views ... 6.5K likes Russia’s Hidden Earthquake Is Already Shaking: 📉 $395 BILLION in household debt. 🏦 Banks running on bailout money. 💥 Interest rates at 21% — and still rising. This is not the sign of a strong nation. It’s a warning of collapse. Want to read more, including see the sources for this presentation? See Jason's full article and citations, here: https://open.substack.com/pub/jasonja... In this deep-dive, Jason Jay Smart exposes the truth the Kremlin doesn’t want the world to see: How Russian citizens are drowning in unsustainable loans Why Russian banks are facing a $25B liquidity crisis How Putin’s obsession with war has triggered economic self-destruction And what history tells us happens next when regimes ignore economic reality From 1917 to 1991, collapsing economies have ended empires. Is Russia next? 📽️ Watch now for the full breakdown — with data, verified sources, and historical perspective that you certainly won’t hear on Russian state TV. Transcript 0:00 so what do $395 billion of household debt a suffocating banking sector and an economy addicted to war have in common well there's certainly not indications that things are going well nor that your country is powerful in fact there's signals that your financial system is on the brink and at this point for Russia it's waging a war not only against Ukraine but against its own self with the economic decisions it's making every single day that are pushing it closer to collapse my name is Jason Smart i'm a special correspondent for the KF Post and I've spent the last couple of decades studying the Putin regime before we dive into what is totally upside down today in Russia I ask one favor which is to please like and subscribe it's all I ask of you to help me expose what the Kremlin is doing thank you so what you'll see next in the next 1:03 few minutes is why Russia is in such a dire situation and though the Kremlin insist every single day that things are going great Kremlin propagandists 7 days a week are saying life in Russia is just peachy and Western observers even some Western observers continue with this myth that Moscow is resilient however the numbers tell a very different story and the numbers don't lie so let's look at first Russia's household debt according to the Bank of Russia as of January 1st 2025 personal debt reached $395 billion so that's about 23.3% of the GDP of Russia a quarter of your GDP being people's debt is not an indication of prosperity and that's an indication of crushing weight on the back of citizens but more stunning 47.7% so just under half of that $188 2:01 billion of it is mortgage debt so in a country where the ruble is depreciated by more than 23% against the dollar since August 1st 2025 Russians are locking themselves into 25year loans just to keep a roof over their heads this is not a growing middle class this is not something to be celebrated this is a sign of mass economic entrapment and even the central bank has admitted that quote half of all personnel loans are held by people managing three or more debts so half of all personal loans are held by people managing three or more debts now keep in mind who are these people they're not investors these are pensioners nurses factory workers people borrowing to pay their electricity bill to pay for food and the cracks are widening just in the past year overdue consumer loans rose by 23% so 610 billion rubles 3:01 and as a whole such debt has increased from 12% to 16% and delinquencies amongst Russia's largest banks has exceeded 30% that's the sound of structural problems that's the sound of serious serious things occurring in the economy and the best part it only gets worse so par personal debt is only one pillar of this crisis the banking system itself is faltering and the Kremlin continues to do nothing about it they deny it they act like everything's fine they refuse to admit the problems that they have and the central bank now is reporting that banks are operating with structural liquidity deficits of about $ 19.5 billion which by the end of the year is said to be close to $25 billion now as we've discussed before typically banks have between 20 and 30% of money liquid that is they 4:00 have the ability then to give money to creditors or to give out loans but they have liquidity russia's banks according to the central bank of Russia have 9.5% liquidity that's a serious problem so they have less than half of what would be considered normal as the worst case scenario so everybody shows up and tries to take out their money don't worry we have it covered they don't have it covered and more than that the debt situation is getting worse as we discussed there's serious problems with liquidity but more than that over two million Russians about 7% of all Russians that are involved in the economy have recently started stopped paying their credit card bills 7% of all Russians active in the economy so if we look at this a different way let's imagine that just increases that just increases by half all of a sudden we're doing 10.5% of the population not paying their credit card 5:01 bills if we already recognize that about half of people that have loans have multiple loans two three four five multiple loans what happens if one of those people starts to default or an entire string of them starts to default how does a bank that only has 9.5% liquidity how does it handle that what does it do how does it make sure that you get your money the truth is there is no way everybody understands that there is no way and that's why just last week as we've discussed before the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia which is like the police said that there should be some sort of regulation against giving out loans what do they mean by that well it's not about really giving out loans that's a problem it's the fact that banks cannot give out money it's become a problem now they made the excuse that is the Ministry of Internal Affairs made the excuse that there's too many people 6:00 trying to defraud banks and to prevent that banks should stop giving out loans inherent to the practice of how banks function they give out loans globally and globally there are people that try to defraud banks but banks continue to give out loans and they continue to make money so why is Russian an exception except that perhaps there's a different reason really they're trying to find an excuse that the banks don't give out more liquidity because they don't know how the banks would survive if tomorrow let's imagine everybody showed up to try to withdraw their deposits there's no way to get around the fact that Russia's banking sector is running on fumes and if you want to see what economic triage looks like this central bank launched weekly emergency repo auctions and what they're doing is they're flooding banks with short-term cash just to keep them from collapsing these were not some sort of fringe institutions out in the regions this is 7:07 self-conscious just like IVs they're getting infusions of cash to keep going but nothing will change the fact that the banks are hemorrhaging rubles and the Kremlin made a choice knowing this which is it could save the economy or it could fund the war and Russia chose to fund the war the Bank of Russia has locked in an interest rate at 21% one of the highest in the world that's higher than Ukraine's ukraine's is about 13.5% it's higher than Argentina at 27.7% it's out of this world and for ordinary Russians that means that consumer loans have interest rates frequently exceeding 30% how can they justify that how can you take out a loan like in mind the Russians are not taking out loans for luxury goods it's not to buy a beach 8:01 house it's to survive about 3/4 of people in Moscow sorry people in Moscow on average spend 3/4 of their income just on rent the situation is very complicated and the central bank's response was quote 'Tightight monetary policy will remain in place as risk from budget expenditures and ruble depreciation persist.' That's from the April bulletin of the central bank and what does it mean what are they saying they're saying we're out of money the bleeding has not yet stopped and that's why it's not shocking when you read through the Russian news the numbers of stories that you see of the single mothers taking out microloans the pensioners taking out microloans and their objective is what to do something exciting no they wish to buy food they wish to pay the heating they wish to pay for an operation they wish to pay for 9:00 electricity and at this point their debts exceed their monthly rent and it's one thing if this was an outlier but it's not these are millions and millions of people in the exact same situation so if that story sounds unsustainable imagine an entire nation in a similar situation that's very unsustainable so this isn't just about economics it's about what happens next where does it go from here and history gives us a very good idea in 1917 there was also a war there was exhaustion there was hunger there was debt and the Russian Empire collapsed in 1991 there was unpaid wages empty store shelves rising desperation and the Soviet Union collapsed history shows us many times what happens when a country overextends itself it can't afford the huge debts it has and it wages an unnecessary war that 10:02 it cannot afford now the reality is dictatorships do have an advantage they can hide some things and they have propagandists that hope to do so but that can't last forever the facts speak for themselves so to quote Gary Kasparov dictators can survive incompetence but not reality reality always wins and today reality is catching up with Vladimir Putin a war economy built in IUS a banking system that is running on vapor and middle class that is simply drowning in debt and the greatest problem of why it will not get better is because the regime is too afraid to tell the truth so when authoritarian regimes ignore the economics of collapse the collapse doesn't care it's still going to come so debt denial decline this is not just 11:03 Russia's war it's Russia's full unraveling that we are watching now so if you believe in facts in freedom and in confronting the authoritarian lies please help me out like follow and share i really appreciate it and as always thank you for supporting Ukraine

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