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CANADA What’s Next for the U.S.-Canada Relationship? The Atlantic Festival 2025 ... Kirsten Hillman, Ambassador of Canada to the United States, joins The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbwxQFuh3zQ Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Most people with brains ... by no means a majority in the US population ... understand that the Trump administration and its 'wrecking ball' approach to government is completely foolish and destined for catastrophic failure. The problem is that these quite sensible people ... of which, perhaps, I am a part ... have no idea what to do about it. Maybe 'the law' can stop Trump and get 'government' back on track ... but so far this approach appears to be far too slow and essentially rather fragile. Certainly, not really 'fit for purpose' in a situation when a maniac has been elected to the Presidency and appears 'hell-bent' on deploying a 'wrecking ball' to the key agencies of government. I am an older person ... born in the UK at the start of WWII in 1940. My wife and I migrated to Canada in the mid 60s and the following year moved to Texas in the USA with my job! Fast forward, 60+ years later I am still living in the USA. During these many years, I have had the opportunity to do a wide variety of work assignments around the world ... more than 50 separate countries ... and have some appreciaton of the amazing diversity of our world. My work was in a variety of domains ... the corporate world, the World Bank, the United Nations, and more. I had the good fortune to get an excellent education thanks to a very good boarding school in the UK, Cambridge Universiy and a supportive family. My formal adademic training included egineering, economics, industrial management and chartered accountancy. I became a lifelong 'learner' and marvel at some of the amazing technical progress that has been made as well as the unconscionable appalling behavior of a lot of corporate leadership over the past 40+ years ... especially in the United States. The recent US election which has put Tramp back in the White House is an existential disaster for the United States. I am more aware than most of the deep dislike that much of the world has for the United States and Americana. The world has 'played nice' with respect to the USA since the end of WWII because the world need as much access as possible to US wealth and goodwill. After 80 years since VE day, that 'need' is much less than in the past and the world does not need to tolerate the Trump insults and arrogance. Many Americans are 'amused' by Trump's antics. Most of the rest of the world is appalled by Trump's behavior and the willingness of US citizens to tolerate his appalling bahavior. I do not know what will happen over the next three years ... but it is entirely possible that the USA's economy will implode as world trade flows change in response to Trump bullying. Canada has been 'nice' to the United States for a very long time ... but Trump is well on the way to ending that favorable situation for the United States. Canada is in a way stronger position relative to the USA now in 2025 than at any time in the past. I remember the Canada / US relationship in the early 1960s deh I was student and visited North America as a university student. Back then there was not a single tar macadam road across Canada and hardly any oil pipelines. Now, Canada's infrastrucure is very good, and a lot of this infrastrure benefits the USA. Until recently ... like until mid-2024 ..' the only place for Canada to sell its energy was to the United States ...giving the USA a huge price advantage. Major pipeline expansion now makes it possible to export energy to other parts of the world at much higher prices ... and Trump's insults make doing this a very sweet paybakc! The new Canadian Prime Minister has the support of Canadians ... and will certainly defeat ... obliterate ... the Trump agenda! Peter Burgess
What’s Next for the U.S.-Canada Relationship? \| The Atlantic Festival 2025 The Atlantic Apr 30, 2025 781K subscribers ... 448,555 views ... 6.9K likes #OTF #GlobalTrends #Geopolitics Kirsten Hillman, Ambassador of Canada to the United States, joins The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg in a discussion about the past, present, and future of the relationship between the United States and Canada. Speakers include: Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor in Chief, The Atlantic Kirsten Hillman, Ambassador of Canada to the United States How are today’s political and policy shifts reshaping the world we live in? On the Future: An Atlantic Festival Event gathers top leaders in policy, finance, defense, tech, health, and climate for an unflinching look at the forces redefining America’s role on the global stage. From domestic change to international complexity, The Atlantic presents forward-looking conversations with the people shaping what's next. Explore the full event: https://www.theatlantic.com/live/on-t... #AtlanticFestival #OnTheFuture #OTF #Geopolitics #ClimatePolicy #TechLeadership #GlobalTrends #AtlanticLive #TAF25 Transcript 0:00 Introduction next for the USC Canada relationship please welcome Kirstston Hillman Ambassador of Canada to the United States with the Atlantic's Jeffrey [Applause] Goldberg Thank you very much for joining us today Um I'm sure most of you most of you could intuit it that um in Washington journalism until 3 months ago the subject of Canada was not particularly controversial Uh lived there I mean yeah No we we we we visit We like Tim Hortons They like we like hockey It it's just it's it's a it's the world's longest peaceful border Um it's just not that controversial Um and Canadians sorry to engage in a stereotype are pretty mildmannered Um 1:04 and so uh it has not been a subject of overwhelming journalistic interest or or controversy Obviously um things have changed I was talking to and you saw her a little while ago uh Anne Applebound and Anne said something uh to me that that struck me She said that um Donald Trump has achieved the impossible He's made Canadians angry Um and so I want to I want to I want to start with that Madam Ambassador um are you angry at the way Canada is discussed by the president of the United States Canadians have gone through a range of emotions polite Canadian manner Um I think Canadians and including myself as a Canadian have gone through a range of emotions I think sort of surprise disbelief confusion sadness It's like the seven stages of grief Uh and or 2:04 eight I don't know how many there are lots Uh but we I think angry frustrated angry sometimes uh because we are unsettled by a uh behavior in particular with respect to the tariffs that is having serious and immediate impacts on our well-being uh economically It's having big impacts here as well but it's having impacts on our well-being And Canadians are like well can we just can we talk about this because we don't think this makes sense for you for us Let's this isn't how good friends work together let's get down and talk to it and we will But I think yes I think Canadians have become uh very seized of this issue Very seized indeed /li> 3:02 How do you explain Trump The um how do you< explain Trump to your colleagues in in Ottawa How do you explain do you do you tell them 'Oh he means it this is he literally wants to make Canada a state Um do you take him seriously but not literally Do you take him not seriously and not literally I mean one of your one of the main roles as the senior Canadian representative in the American capital is to explain America to your bosses and they then explain it to the Canadian people How do you explain it So a few things One I think that it's clear that the president of the United States and his administration are seeking to transform in particular their economic relationship with the world and therefore very much with us We have the single biggest uh trading relationship with you of any country in the world We're your biggest customer We uh buy more from you than China Japan the UK and France combined Like it's a huge relationship in all ways not just economic And the president and his 4:03 administration are seeking to change that in ways that I think are quite consequential And so that's the first thing I say and that and that that is what it is It will change and therefore we will change and therefore we will move into something different than we have been in for a few generations In terms of taking the president seriously he Donald Trump is the president of the United States Of course we take him seriously Of course we take him seriously He's a man with enormous influence and power uh over this country and the world And so yes he has to be taken seriously Um I had the opportunity Trumps comments on Canada um to talk to the president last Thursday um and I I raised some of some of these issues with him I want to just read you one um one passage and maybe get you to comment on what you think he means Um and then we could talk about tariffs Uh oh Yeah No no no It's going 5:03 to be fine It's going to be totally painless Um this is Trump speaking Um I left some very smart people from other countries today and I have them all the time You understand He speaks in a shortand pais or and I think maybe one of the things I've been most successful with is foreign relations This is me interjects I think the Canadians would disagree Trump well the Canadians Here's the problem I have with Canada We're subsidizing them to the tune of $200 billion a year And we don't need their gasoline We don't need their oil We don't need their lumber We don't need their energy of any type We don't need anything they have I say it would make a great 51st state I love other nations I love Canada I have great friends Wayne Gretzky is a friend of mine I mean I have great friends I said to Wayne 'I'm going to give you a pass Wayne I don't want to ruin his reputation in Canada.' I said 'Just pretend you don't know me but they're great people You know they do 95% of their business with us Remember if they're a state there's no tariffs They 6:04 have lower taxes We have to guard them militarily.' Me you seriously want them to become a state I think it would be great I respond 'A hell of a big Democratic state.' Trump A lot of people say that but I'm okay with it if it has to be because I think you know actually until I came along Then I respond because I I was losing my mind Um I'm no political genius but I know which way they're going to vote They have socialized medicine Trump says 'You know until I came along remember that the Conservative is leading by 25 points.' My colleague Ashley Parker says''That's true.' And Trump said 'Um then I was disliked by enough of the Canadians that I've thrown the election into a close call.' Right I don't even know if it's a close call but the conservative they didn't like Governor Trudeau too much And I would call him Governor Trudeau but he wasn't fond of that And then we changed the subject cuz I didn't feel like it was going anywhere interesting Um I want you to break this down for me starting from the beginning Um here's the problem I have with Canada We're 7:05 subsidizing them to the tune of $200 billion a year True Untrue Untrue explain explain the context So as I said Canada and the United States have the biggest bilateral trading relationship in the world Uh we sell back and forth in goods and services two and a half billion dollars a day Two and a half billion dollars a day It's an enormous I mean it's all it's hard to conceive of for most of us what that looks like in that relationship For those who are looking at this through the perspective of balanced trade which the president most certainly does in other words that we sell as much as we buy Canada has a trade deficit In other words we buy more than we sell of manufactured goods of electronics certainly services So stuff that Americans make and manufacture the 8:03 things that the president is is very deeply concerned about ensuring stay here for good jobs for Americans we buy more of that from you than you buy from us And we are about onetenth your size So just to put that in perspective and actually another thing to put in perspective is in manufactured products for the United States more than half of what you manufacture in the United States you export So selling your manufactured products to other countries is very important for the jobs that that you know the president wants to create and I think 77% of your economy runs on services Again we are a huge service consumer of American services but a third of what we sell you is energy and a lot of that is oil and the Canadian oil that we sell is uh transported down to the Gulf Coast where it's refined It is frankly according to many Canadian experts sold at a discount 9:01 And that has to do with the fact that we only have so many pipelines and we can only get it to so many places That product is then refined and resold at three times the price into the United States to third country markets keeping your manufacturing costs down right manufacturers that rely on that energy keeping the price at the pump for Americans down So yes we sell you more energy than you sell us That is absolutely true And because a third of what we sell you is energy overall we have a trade deficit but it's about $60 billion not 200 But if you want to balance the trade if the if the United States wants to balance trade with Canada the only way to really do that we can't buy that much more from you We are 41 million people there's only so much we can buy We will have to sell you less energy And I don't actually think that's what the administration wants And I think proof of that is in the fact that when 10:00 the tariffs were put on to products of all nations the tariffs put on Canadian energy were some of the lowest of all Right So when he says we don't need anything that you make that is self-evidently untrue Well I don't think I think that it is First of all I believe that the US benefits from the Canadian energy relationship from our manufacturing relationship We sell you critical minerals we sell you uranium we sell you you know all sorts of products that if you weren't buying them from us and if you don't have them in the ground if you don't actually have them then you're going to buy them from someone else And is it going to be Bellarus or Venezuela right Where is this going to come from Why wouldn't you buy it from us an ally a steadfast ally and friend an ideologically aligned country that you know wants democracy and rule of law So need what does need mean Does it mean the United States could survive without you know affordable Canadian 11:01 energy Probably Does it mean that thing the price of all sorts of things would go up for Americans Yes it does Does it mean you might buy it from Venezuela Probably Is that what is that the objective I I I don't think so I think what the president is looking for is a conversation around um making sure that the US is getting the best out of all these relationships and I am eager for that conversation because I think when we dig into the facts we're going to see that we are a source of strength and he's going to you know his people and he will see the degree to which we're a source of strength for Americans Do you believe this is a fact-based administration I believe it can be I do like I and and seriously I believe that the president is attuned to the effects of his policies on American people I do Let me ask you this You were before you came to Does Trump understand economics Washington 5 years ago I mean you actually came as ambassador to the previous Trump administration Um you're 12:01 an economist You are Canada's chief trade representative Um does the president understand economics I think the president understands I think the president has a very specific vision of what he is trying to do in America I think there are a lot of people that don't feel that the means by which he is seeking to do that um make sense or are traditional Uh he but he's undaunted I mean I think that's really clear The president believes in putting in place policies in particular tariffs to draw investment into the United States and manufacturing into the United States and he believes that that is going to work And I am not here to question that I am here to say if that is the policy that 13:02 the United States wants to adopt there are ways in which in applying that policy to Canada you are actually undermining your own policy Can you spend a minute or two I know it's not very long explaining from a can and necessarily from a Canadian perspective um the flaws in not not a specific polic general notion of tariffs that the Trump administration is propounding So tariffs are essentially attacks on anything that's imported into the country right Well that's what they are Not essentially That is exactly what they are They are a tax on something that is imported into the country and they serve a variety of purposes They raise revenue Um they disincentivize imports They make imports more expensive and by disincentivizing imports they can potentially I suppose incentivize domestic production All of that works in the abstract and sometimes in 14:04 the concrete But again coming back to Canada US we are deeply integrated over generations to be as efficient and competitive as possible as neighbors and partners by using the comparative sort of advantages if you will of each country So we are a commodity country I mean we do lots of great stuff other than commodities but in our relationship with the United States largely what we do 70% of what we sell to you are inputs that you put into products that you manufacture in the United States and often sell back to us That's energy energy lumber minerals like small bits of machinery that go into bigger bits of machinery steel aluminum right Um and you know Canadians might well say 'Well wait a minute here We actually want to be doing that manufacturing at home.' And and back to one of your first points one of the reactions in Canada which I think is a positive for our country is 15:00 hang on a minute here we need to be doing more for ourselves We need to be reinvesting in what we're doing here in Canada We need to be more resilient and stronger So you buy quite a bit of uh uh uh you buy products from America that have Canadianmade components that are then being finished sent back correct in a in an almost in this case a developing world kind of relationship You send us the raw No I'm not I'm not I'm not saying that Well I mean so a lot of our trade is same in agriculture I was talking to a CEO this morning who's in the agricultural field We sell you 10,000 cattle a month right Which you process into food and you sell some of that food back to us You sell a lot of it here at home but you know so so we are deeply integrated and and and sometimes it goes the other direction Sometimes you sell us raw materials that we manufacture but it but largely it is in that direction And so that is a good deal for America That coupled with inexpensive reliable energy is a good 16:03 deal for America and and I think that that is the proposition back to your question about does this rationale make sense I'm not going to you know I'm not going to say whether it can make sense with respect to some of the objectives with respect to our country If somebody says 'Is this a fair trading relationship Is the US getting a good deal out of this?' You are getting a good deal out of your relationship with Canada There is no question about it But you know we'll see We'll see what more the president needs to talk about in this space What does an angry Canadian look like No No I'm ser like like Did you watch that last hockey game of the four [Applause] What does an angry Canadian look like off the ice And what I mean is is at a certain Reorganizing Canadas economy point again we could make jokes about stereotypes but at a certain point you are discovering a national pride that is not been right up there on the surface 17:04 the way it is with some other countries including United States Um and at what point do and look your conservative candidate lost as Donald Trump acknowledges in a kind of like he doesn't care way to me Uh your conservative candidate lost because he was seen as too close to you know MAGA ideology I mean it was clearly what happened up there was a reaction in part to what's going on down here But would you really reorganize your e economy to to to push away the United States at a certain point I mean if you can't get what you consider to be a good deal what does that what does that look like I think that it's it's a question of mitigation right I think that there are we will seek to strengthen our own economy and we're doing that already We will s seek to reinforce relationships that we have 18:05 all over the world We have you know trade agreement with Europe We have a trade agreement in Asia Canadian business are already giving me anecdotes about selling their product into those markets You're a two ocean country just like we are Right So so the products that are not as competitive down here because of the tariffs they they're going to these other countries The can the US buyers aren't happy but the Canadian sellers you know are are doing what they have to do for business So so strengthening ourselves at home making sure we have the strongest relationships that we can with our allies around the world and our partners around the world but of course we want to get to a place of sort of stability and predictability with the United States What I'm saying is what if you can't I mean do you know what I I think we can I don't think it's going to be what I the US has this administration has changed the paradigm on the the role that it wants to play 19:04 and how it proceeds in trade and economic discussions and relationships There's no question about that and we we have to adapt But the American people the businesses here in America consumers here in America um are better off with a more stable relationship with your biggest customer right It it makes sense for Americans and it makes sense for the people who have put the president into the White House to have affordable products to buy to have relationships where companies invest in their communities Companies don't invest when there's instability The whole reason we put these sort of international rules in place is to say 'Okay over time you're going to be able to count on this regulatory regime or this tariff or whatever.' as that remains tumultuous as everyone knows who's who's who's reading about the effects of this internationally there is a a chill on investment and there is a 20:01 concern around um the long-term you know stability So I believe we will get back there somehow uh because it's what is best for the American people Uh has Canada made any mistakes Canadas relationship with the US along the way in managing its relationship with the United States That's a good question I mean we all make mistakes don't we But I think that um I don't know I I'm not sure I would characterize as a mistake I think that what Canada and probably all of America's you know allies around the world have to continually um make sure we fully understand is that the US is is is seeking to play a different kind of role to do things differently Here's a very good example and that and that we have to we have to not just hear it but we have to actually act in a way that fully recognizes that 21:03 and and and relate to this administration from where they are right they want to transform the way the US relates to the world they will do that and we will therefore have to do the same but here's a very good example in a lot of this bilateral sort of engagement that is happening with um with countries I have noticed that the administration seems far less interested in something that was a big feature of US especially in the economic space US activity which was leading the international rule making and sort of influencing the world by setting rules for the world A very good example is I was our chief negotiator for the Trans-Pacific Partnership and in that agreement the United States had very specific goals with respect to intellectual property rules that they wanted to have in that agreement We were 12 countries in that negotiation No one else wanted those rules or many of them 22:01 none of us were interested in But the US insisted on a series of rules in that agreement and we wanted the United States in that partnership and so we all figured out a way to accept those rules When the United States backed out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the rest of us went forward and implemented that agreement we carved all those rules out They're gone So the regulatory changes that we would have all made in our own countries in order to align with US interests and US business interests are gone We're not doing it right And this sort of bilateral transactional approach with countries has has advantages for sure but it does remove the US from that space And I find that that is a that is going to be interesting to see how that plays out Let me let me ask one specific question on the subject of non-economic relationship Your military is very small You have a I think 68,000 active duty soldiers airmen 70 70 23:03 sailors 70 um not 68 Um you don't spend even 2% I think of GDP although you're trying to move it slowly Isn't there a legitimate reason for Americans to say 'Well Canada like many European countries just hasn't pulled its NATO weight.' I mean I'm wondering if that's something that stimulates some American resentment of Canada I think that there's no question that not just the US but all of our NATO allies are eager to see Canada you know spend more and faster uh we have tripled our spending in the last 10 years or so but yes we can we can do more uh and we will do more and we just had an election yesterday I anticipate that that will be something that our new prime minister will will speak to you know soon So yeah I I think that that's a fair point but I guess the other thing that I would say so absolutely a fair point um where we 24:02 are trying to really orient ourselves in our defense uh priorities is towards things that we can do that are specific to Canada We're spending an awful lot of the the money and energy that we have on the Arctic for example and really really investing in the Arctic investing in North and that's a counterrussian activity among other things Russia and China Yeah Yeah Yeah Um I'm going to go over a couple couple of minutes because I'm now making myself into a Canada expert late in rather late in my career but I I find this I find this conversation endlessly fascinating Um the election is Trump correct Did he throw the election to the Liberal I'm asking you for your analysis I understand you're apolitical in this role but I'm asking you as a Canadian political analyst I think Canadians were very focused on a small number of things uh and very near the top of the list for every many almost all I would say is managing our relations with the United 25:03 States That was essential to most Canadians and then cost of living and we have a we have a housing shortage crisis We have a few issues that are really important to Canadians but but absolutely managing the relationship with the United States was top of the list for very many Canadians And how did that help Carney Well that's a good question I think that uh Prime Minister Carney uh so our prime minister who was just elected yesterday uh was the former governor of the Bank of Canada former governor of the Bank of England has a very strong economic uh pedigree Um and I think that Canadians saw that as a skill set that would be very important in this moment in time If we are in a moment of trans transformation I think Canadians said 'Okay this seems to be the skill set that we we prefer This is my as a citizen sort of analysis of In other words he's going to he understands what's coming in these negotiations and 26:00 is really Yeah I mean he he shephered Canada through the 2008 financial crisis He shephered the UK through Brexit So he is someone who has has dealt with big economic transformations and I think that that was something and he's never been elected to office before so he's not a politician So that was I think um very uncommon right um so we will uh we'll see but I think that that if I was to say I think that that's and it's not me it's essentially what the pundits in our country are all have the same analysis One more It's a It's not really a short answer but I'm asking you to >br> Canadian patriotism make it a short answer but it's it's something that is interesting to all of us This resurgence of Canadian feeling under pressure Canadian patriotism is becoming a thing And I'm wondering just speak to this point as a Canadian native of Alberta Um do you feel differently now as a Canadian uh than you did 6 months ago Not me I not me I represent 27:04 Canada in a foreign land right Uh and I am every single day reminded of my Canadianness a big part of my job to to understand that and to express who we are as a nation to you here in the United States and and others that I encounter So for me no But I would say Canada is a deeply patriotic country We're a deeply patriotic country with a a strong sense of you know our values who we are uh and and our hopes and dreams But more to your more to your beginning point we're we're not we're we're we're a quieter bunch about it right We are not born of revolution Uh we are born of sort of negotiation We are born of a much more gentle birth if you will than the one you encountered And I think that they kind of were ambivalent about King George III Yeah Yeah No we get it We get it You know we had the king had there are good people on both sides I get it 28:06 And we have a where our founding nations are France the UK but of course our our first nations our native people were were there who are you know remain a huge part of our cultural re reality and and importance to our cultural identity So we are a we're just a different country but it is a it is a it is a we're the less rowdy cousin at the Thanksgiving table Uh but not today Not today Not today Getting rowdier And my final and my final my final final question When you met Donald Trump 5 years ago when you first came to Washington to do this job did you think that he was anti-Canadian Did you anything anything suggest that oh there's trouble of foot here No In fact I so I I I met uh President Trump during the NAFTA renegotiation a few times and then uh 29:00 over the course of the COVID uh crisis when we had to slow down the border and on the contrary uh I think very um very supportive of Canada US very supportive of us I don't think that President Trump is anti-Canada Just to just to be clear I don't think President Trump is anti-Canada at all I think he and Canada is not anti- United States I mean we we love you guys You're our neighbors and our friends I mean you you're talking about military We fought and died together in all the wars and you know first world war second world war Korea Afghanistan all over the world So there is no greater partnership We have almost half a million people go between our two countries every day Not maybe lately but most but but but truly we have we have an enormous amount of interconnection Uh and so we we are I if you ask me why I'm confident that we will figure this out it's because of that It's because of the half a million people almost every day It's because of all of this We have to those of us who represent our people that is our job is to figure it out And 30:03 we will And and and I'm I'm convinced that uh that the president will be happy to do so or will certainly do so And you know what else is big in Canada The Atlantic Did you know that big big magazine in it And so on behalf of The Atlantic we thank you for coming today Thank you Thank you We will now take a brief break Please return to your seats in 15 minutes

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