Date: 2025-07-04 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00028443
GEOPOLITICS
CHINA DRIVING THE NARATIVE
EYE GLOBAL: China SHUTS DOWN Trump Tariff Offer – EMPTY SHELVES Hit the U.S. in DAYS!
CHINA DRIVING THE NARATIVE
EYE GLOBAL: China SHUTS DOWN Trump Tariff Offer – EMPTY SHELVES Hit the U.S. in DAYS!
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB7JFGCOoXs
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
A surprisingly large number of Americans seem to remain in support of the Trump agenda.
I can understand to some extent how a majority of American voters voted for Trump in the 2024 election as they did 8 years before in 2016. Trump is essentially a 'con-man' and the American electorate is not very sophisticated ... in other words a huge part of the electorate can be manipulated relatively easily by a maleolent conman such as Donald Trump.
Peter Burgess
- 🔹 Global Supply Chain Disruption:
China’s rejection of the US tariff rollback triggered an immediate collapse in container traffic, leading to massive shortages across American retail sectors. - 🔹 Skyrocketing Consumer Prices:
As inventories run dry, just-in-time logistics break down, pushing prices up across essential goods like electronics, food, and household items. - 🔹 Stock Market Volatility:
Wall Street suffered sharp selloffs with the Dow plunging nearly 800 points, signaling deep fears about supply-driven inflation and economic instability. - 🔹 Manufacturing Slowdowns and Job Risks:
Major US manufacturers like Stellantis announced furloughs, highlighting the vulnerability of America’s industrial base dependent on Chinese supply lines. - 🔹 US Global Isolation:
China leveraged its strategic resilience to strengthen alliances in Europe and Asia, while Washington faces growing doubts about its reliability and leadership. - 🔹 Policy Crisis in Washington:
The Trump administration is caught between escalating pressure to act and the political cost of admitting policy miscalculations, risking deeper economic fallout.
Thanks for watching!
Transcript
- 0:02
- what happens when the world's second
- largest economy slams the door on a US
- proposal and American shelves go empty
- within days in a stunning escalation
- China has officially rejected the Trump
- administration's offer to roll back
- tariffs signaling a hard break in
- already fragile trade talks beijing's
- refusal isn't just symbolic it's a
- strategic move that could send shock
- waves across global supply chains major
- US retailers are already sounding the
- alarm with shipping volumes from China
- plummeting and critical goods stuck in
- limbo american consumers could face
- widespread shortages rising prices and a
- logistics nightmare not seen since the
- early pandemic this is no longer a
- policy debate it's a looming economic
- storm will Washington pivot before the
- pressure erupts into crisis or are we
- witnessing the first cracks in a much
- deeper
- 1:00
- confrontation stay with
- us number one China shuts down trump's
- tariff roll back offer the silence from
- Beijing is louder than any press
- conference just days after President
- Donald Trump publicly hinted at a
- breakthrough in US China trade talks
- China responded with a diplomatic
- sledgehammer in a statement that sent
- ripples across global markets the
- Chinese Foreign Ministry made it clear
- there are no trade negotiations
- currently underway with the United
- States zero none this wasn't a
- misunderstanding it was a rejection
- deliberate calculated and loaded with
- strategic intent china didn't just shut
- the door it bolted it according to
- spokesperson Lyn Jian any meaningful
- dialogue will only resume if Washington
- first removes all unilateral tariffs
- imposed since the 2018 trade war until
- then Beijing has no intention of
- 2:00
- returning to the table that's not a
- negotiation tactic that's an ultimatum
- this comes at a time when the Trump
- administration has been under intense
- domestic pressure to deliver economic
- stability ahead of the 2026 midterm
- cycle in recent speeches Trump claimed
- that discussions with China were
- progressing nicely and hinted that
- tariff relief was on the horizon yet
- within hours Chinese officials dismissed
- those comments as media maneuvering a
- veiled accusation that the White House
- is staging a perception campaign rather
- than conducting real diplomacy this
- isn't just rhetoric it's a power play
- beijing understands leverage and right
- now it believes it has it china's
- decision to go public with its refusal
- isn't just about tariffs it's about
- optics it sends a clear message china
- will not be coerced trump's tariff
- policy once seen by his base as a bold
- economic defense has now become a
- 3:02
- double-edged sword while it aimed to
- force concessions from Beijing it has
- instead emboldened a more defiant and
- globallyworked China rather than folding
- under pressure Beijing has doubled down
- on a strategy that favors resilience and
- regional dominance the rejection isn't
- just about avoiding tariff relief it's
- about denying Washington the narrative
- of success chinese state media have gone
- even further suggesting that the Trump
- administration's approach has lost
- credibility and is driven by domestic
- political showmanship rather than
- international
- responsibility while this language may
- sound familiar in geopolitical spats its
- timing just days after major US economic
- indicators signaled growing supply
- constraints is no coincidence behind
- closed doors officials in both
- Washington and Wall Street are watching
- with unease what looked like a potential
- 4:00
- thaw has suddenly frozen into a hardened
- standoff and for the US economy the
- consequences could be immediate at stake
- isn't just a round of tariffs or a
- missed trade meeting it's the strategic
- realignment of two superpowers locked in
- a long-term battle for technological
- economic and political supremacy trump's
- offer was meant to deescalate a volatile
- trade
- dynamic beijing's refusal does the
- opposite it accelerates the
- confrontation this is no longer just a
- trade dispute it's a test of endurance
- and in this round China is signaling
- that it's not only ready for a prolonged
- standoff it's prepared to control the
- tempo what remains unclear is how the
- Trump administration will respond will
- it double down on pressure risking
- further economic fallout or will it
- pivot seeking alternative leverage
- points in a rapidly evolving global
- trade landscape one thing is certain in
- 5:01
- a world where perception shapes policy
- china has just seized control of the
- narrative and that might prove more
- powerful than any tariff ever imposed
- number two US supply chains crash
- immediate fallout unfolds the
- consequences didn't wait within days of
- China's outright rejection of
- Washington's tariff offer container
- traffic from Chinese ports to the US
- plunged between 60 to 85% according to
- updated data from shipping analytics
- firm Zeneda cited by Reuters on April
- 22nd cargo ships destined for Los
- Angeles Long Beach and New York Harbor
- are idling rerouted or outright
- cancelled the flow of critical imports
- everything from electronics to
- pharmaceutical components is choking
- this isn't just a statistical dip it's a
- strategic breakdown america's largest
- retailers are sounding the alarm walmart
- 6:00
- and Target executives in earnings calls
- and internal memos first reported by
- CNBC warned that empty shelves could hit
- within the next two weeks especially in
- categories such as home appliances tech
- accessories toys and even processed food
- products if the shipping deadlock holds
- a full-scale price surge across major
- categories is expected within the next 1
- to 2 months why so fast because the US
- runs on just in time logistics a fragile
- high efficiency system designed to
- minimize inventory and maximize turnover
- but that system only works when every
- link in the chain performs with robotic
- precision with China out of sync the
- chain doesn't just slow down it
- collapses and it's already happening
- warehouses in Texas and Illinois that
- typically run on 3-day inventory cycles
- are now sitting half stocked
- distribution centers are shifting into
- 7:01
- ration mode prioritizing high margin
- products and cutting bulk orders to
- smaller retailers trucking companies are
- being told to expect longer idle periods
- as inbound shipments vanish from
- scheduling grids behind the scenes this
- isn't just a logistics challenge it's a
- corporate panic according to a leaked
- memo obtained by Bloomberg executives at
- a leading US consumer goods firm
- described the situation as worse than
- 2020 referencing the darkest months of
- the pandemic when storeshelves went bare
- and demand outpaced supply by orders of
- magnitude this time however the root
- cause isn't a virus it's a standoff and
- it's strategic china knows exactly where
- to apply pressure by constricting export
- volumes to the US even without a formal
- embargo Beijing is leveraging its
- dominance in key manufacturing verticals
- 8:00
- from microchips to furniture components
- over 40% of core inventory for American
- retailers still originates from China or
- passes through Chinese controlled
- networks a disruption here doesn't just
- impact storeshelves it hammers profit
- margins erodess consumer trust and
- destabilizes Wall Street expectations
- and there's no quick fix reconfiguring
- supply chains takes months if not years
- rerouting through Southeast Asia india
- or Mexico comes with steep costs longer
- lead times and limited capacity
- meanwhile US consumers already grappling
- with elevated inflation will now face
- another wave of price hikes just as
- summer spending season begins at the
- policy level some voices in Washington
- are calling for emergency measures
- fast-tracked import agreements subsidies
- for domestic production and even limited
- tariff suspensions but these are
- band-aids not solutions the underlying
- 9:03
- fracture economic interdependence
- weaponized by geopolitical rivalry isn't
- going away what's collapsing isn't just
- a logistics system it's a decades old
- assumption that the global economy can
- withstand any political fallout the US
- built its consumer empire on the premise
- that goods would always flow cheaply
- swiftly and without disruption that
- premise just died at sea and now every
- household in America is about to feel it
- will the administration respond with
- strategic pragmatism or double down on
- confrontation either way the countdown
- has begun the next two weeks could
- redefine how Americans shop spend and
- survive in a fractured global trade
- order number three market chaos and
- America's domestic economic shock the
- markets are panicking and the numbers
- prove it within 48 hours of China's
- tariff rejection Wall Street was rocked
- 10:02
- by one of its sharpest intraday drops
- since late 2022 the Dow Jones Industrial
- Average shed nearly 800 points before
- partially recovering while the S&P 500
- and Nasdaq both closed deep in the red
- but this wasn't a correction driven by
- earnings or interest rates it was pure
- fear fear of supply chain paralysis fear
- of runaway inflation fear that
- Washington has lost its grip on economic
- stability investors aren't just reacting
- they're retreating bond markets often
- the most sensitive barometer of
- macroeconomic anxiety lit up with
- warning signals the 10-year Treasury
- yield surged above 4.8% its highest
- level in nearly 2 years reflecting
- investor concern over inflationary
- pressures and a likely spike in
- government borrowing costs rising yields
- don't just affect big institutions they
- 11:01
- ripple through to mortgage rates auto
- loans and corporate debt threatening to
- choke economic growth just as the US
- enters a fragile recovery phase the
- Federal Reserve already juggling a
- delicate balancing act now faces a new
- dilemma either hold rates steady and
- risk a supply-driven inflation spike or
- tighten further and risk plunging the
- economy into contraction neither option
- looks good from Capitol Hill and markets
- know it meanwhile the real economy is
- beginning to bleed across the Midwest
- and Southern manufacturing belt factory
- lines are slowing
- Stellantis one of America's largest
- automakers announced it would initiate
- targeted furlows across multiple US
- plants citing critical delays in
- materials sourced through East Asian
- suppliers the statement released on
- April 23rd via CNBC added that the
- company cannot guarantee full resumption
- of operations if current trade
- 12:01
- disruptions persist beyond the next
- quarter and Stellantis is not alone data
- from the National Association of
- Manufacturers shows that over 20% of
- midsized industrial employers are
- preparing to scale back operations due
- to inventory shortfalls delivery delays
- and rising import costs in states like
- Ohio Michigan and Pennsylvania regions
- crucial to America's industrial output
- and politically sensitive in any
- election cycle thousands of workers face
- uncertain job prospects it's not just
- the bluecollar workforce that's feeling
- the heat procurement managers logistics
- heads and seauite executives across
- sectors are in emergency mode scrambling
- to renegotiate supplier contracts absorb
- rising costs and reassure anxious
- shareholders according to a flash survey
- by Bloomberg Economics 64% of large cap
- US firms expect profit margins to
- 13:00
- contract this quarter a dramatic
- reversal from earlier forecasts made
- just a month ago this is not a sector
- specific crisis it's systemic the Trump
- administration has defended its tariff
- strategy as a necessary step toward
- long-term independence from Chinese
- goods supporters argue that short-term
- pain is a price worth paying to restore
- domestic
- manufacturing but even among proponents
- there is rising concern that the timing
- scale and messaging of this
- confrontation are spiraling out of
- control and the data backs it the
- consumer price index is projected to
- rise by another
- 1.1% this quarter driven not by demand
- but by supply side bottlenecks the
- worstc case scenario for any central
- bank wage growth meanwhile remains flat
- in several key regions setting the stage
- for a squeeze on household
- consumption just as interest payments
- and energy costs climb we are entering
- dangerous territory a market driven less
- 14:02
- by fundamentals and more by fear policy
- ambiguity and global disruption and the
- question everyone on Wall Street is now
- whispering not shouting not yet but
- whispering is this 2025's Lehman moment
- a slow bleed that suddenly accelerates
- because if consumer spending cracks and
- if credit tightens further the next
- shock won't be on the stock ticker it'll
- be on Main Street number four China
- gains ground as the US faces global
- isolation while Washington scrambles to
- contain domestic fallout Beijing is
- executing a masterclass in geopolitical
- leverage China's hardline stance flatout
- rejecting any tariff relief without full
- US concessions wasn't a spontaneous
- decision it was the culmination of years
- of quiet preparation financial
- insulation and strategic realignment in
- 15:00
- the face of US pressure Beijing didn't
- flinch it fortified for months Chinese
- officials have been signaling that they
- would no longer engage in dialogue for
- dialogue's sake now they've acted by
- refusing to return to the table unless
- Washington removes all unilateral
- tariffs china is reframing the narrative
- it is no longer the party desperate for
- economic
- reconciliation instead it is portraying
- the US as the destabilizing force
- erratic politically driven and
- increasingly isolated on the global
- stage and this narrative is gaining
- traction in Europe cracks in
- transatlantic alignment are beginning to
- show Germany's recent bilateral energy
- talks with China covered by Durbigel and
- Politico EU hint at a soft decoupling
- from Washington's containment strategy
- france meanwhile has ramped up
- agricultural exports to China citing
- shared economic interests amid global
- 16:01
- uncertainty even traditionally close
- allies like the Netherlands and Spain
- are exploring trade frameworks that
- skirt US restrictions particularly in
- areas like semiconductors and green tech
- but the biggest surprise comes from Asia
- Japan America's longtime ally and
- regional counterweight to Chinese
- expansion has quietly initiated trade
- dialogues with Beijing focused on rare
- earth's energy security and financial
- interoperability
- while Tokyo remains cautious insiders at
- Nikki Asia report a growing sentiment
- among Japanese industrial groups that
- strategic ambiguity is safer than full
- alignment with Washington's increasingly
- confrontational tone this doesn't mean
- the world is siding with China
- ideologically
- it means they're hedging recognizing
- Beijing's growing ability to absorb
- shocks maintain trade flows and offer
- access to a vast still expanding
- domestic market beijing's strength isn't
- 17:02
- just diplomatic it's structural china
- has poured billions into domestic
- innovation built massive strategic
- reserves of essential commodities and
- maintained over 3.1 trillion US in
- foreign exchange reserves the largest
- globally
- this war chest gives the Chinese
- Communist Party insulation against
- volatility and more importantly time at
- the same time Beijing has fortified its
- regional presence through initiatives
- like the regional comprehensive economic
- partnership
- RC and expanded influence through the
- Shanghai Cooperation
- Organization these aren't symbolic
- alliances they are functional trade
- ecosystems that exclude the United
- States entirely in essence China has
- built alternative lanes for commerce
- investment and influence all while
- Washington is still playing catch-up
- this preparation is paying off global
- 18:01
- investors once wary of Beijing's
- regulatory crackdowns are now taking a
- second look
- chinese sovereign bonds are gaining
- traction especially in emerging markets
- seeking diversification from western
- capital flows meanwhile Beijing's
- control over key exports like graphite
- gallium and rare earth elements has
- given it quiet leverage over critical
- global industries from EVs to military
- hardware this is the new chess board and
- right now China is controlling the
- center for the United States the risk
- isn't just being excluded from new deals
- it's the perception of inflexibility
- that Washington is so locked into
- domestic political theater that it's
- losing sight of the global game and
- perception matters because in the eyes
- of many non-aligned economies China is
- starting to look less like a threat and
- more like an indispensable alternative
- the question now has the US
- 19:01
- miscalculated the world's appetite for
- confrontation and if so can it pivot
- fast enough before rewrites the rules
- number five the tariff gamble is Trump's
- trade strategy backfiring tariffs were
- never meant to be painless but the pain
- is spreading faster than expected from
- the outset the Trump administration's
- trade policy was framed as a bold
- recalibration a strategic move to
- rebalance trade with China reduce
- dependence on lowcost imports and revive
- American
- manufacturing the rhetoric was simple
- level the playing field bring jobs home
- and punish Beijing for years of unfair
- trade practices but reality as it often
- does is proving far more complex the
- initial rounds of tariffs imposed during
- Trump's first term and expanded since
- his 2024
- re-election have yet to produce the
- domestic industrial boom many had hoped
- for instead recent data points to a
- 20:00
- short-term economic squeeze consumer
- prices rising across critical sectors
- import bottlenecks intensifying and
- American manufacturers facing material
- shortages that are forcing layoffs not
- hiring according to the April 2025
- report from the Bureau of Economic
- Analysis US manufacturing output fell by
- 2.7% over the last quarter a sharp
- reversal from the optimistic projections
- made just 6 months ago in sectors like
- automotive electronics and consumer
- goods production lines are stalling not
- because of lack of demand but because
- the components they rely on are stuck
- overseas priced out by tariffs or
- entangled in red tape the irony is
- glaring a policy designed to promote
- domestic resilience is now exposing
- structural weaknesses that have gone
- unressed for decades supporters of
- Trump's approach argue that this is a
- necessary
- 21:00
- disruption you don't rebuild an
- industrial base without breaking
- dependencies said Dan Deiko former trade
- adviser and steel executive in a recent
- Wall Street Journal interview
- short-term pain is the cost of long-term
- sovereignty but even among proponents
- doubts are surfacing about executioner
- the central critique isn't the logic of
- tariffs it's the lack of synchronized
- investment in American capacity as
- veteran economist Nuriel Rubini noted on
- CNBC 'You can't impose tariffs without a
- parallel strategy to scale domestic
- alternatives without that you're just
- inflating prices while handing consumers
- the bill that bill is already landing in
- American households according to
- Bloomberg Economics inflation linked
- directly to trade disruptions has added
- an estimated 1.2 percentage points to
- the consumer price index this quarter
- that might not sound dramatic until you
- 22:01
- translate it into household budgets for
- workingclass families it means higher
- grocery bills pricier electronics and
- growing anxiety heading into the back to
- school season and the damage isn't just
- economic it's political in swing states
- like Michigan and Wisconsin once the
- heartland of American manufacturing
- union leaders are expressing
- frustration 'We supported the idea of
- reshoring,' one senior AFL CIO
- representative told Politico but we're
- seeing plants idle not expand if there's
- a master plan it's not reaching the
- floor level so where does that leave the
- tariff strategy for now the
- administration maintains that the policy
- is working as intended officials from
- the US trade representatives office
- insist that supply chain diversification
- is underway that trade deficits with
- China have narrowed and that domestic
- industry simply needs time to adapt but
- 23:01
- the clock is ticking if inflation
- continues to climb if production remains
- hampered and if consumer sentiment sour
- pressure will mount to revise the
- strategy or abandon it
- altogether already whispers of targeted
- relief or sectoral exemptions are
- circulating in Washington policy circles
- ultimately this isn't just a question of
- economics it's one of national vision is
- the US willing to endure prolonged
- disruption in exchange for long-term
- industrial independence or has the
- administration overestimated its
- capacity to decouple from China without
- unraveling the domestic economy the
- debate is far from over and the answer
- may define the next decade of American
- economic policy the standoff is real and
- the stakes are rising fast with no trade
- talks in sight and China holding firm
- the US finds itself grappling with
- mounting economic pressure strained
- 24:01
- supply chains and a restless domestic
- market if no policy shift comes soon it
- won't be politicians or corporations
- paying the price it'll be American
- consumers the question now is will
- Washington compromise to prevent a
- deeper crisis or double down on
- confrontation no matter the cost we want
- to hear from you do you think the US
- should back down or is this the price of
- taking a stand drop your thoughts in the
- comments and don't forget to like
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