COMMENTARY
DAVID FRUM ... JANUARY 31, 2025
The Hub Canada: Conversation with David Frum:
Trump's predatory foreign policy
Original article:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9A6KblAle8
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
I became a 'landed immigrant' in Canada more than 60 years ago settling with my new wife in Vancouver, British Columbia. Less than a year later, I got the opportunity to do work in Texas, USA for a Vancouver based company.
This opportunity was both very good and quite bad. Very good for me, but not so good for my wife. I was allowed to work, she was not. American immigration has been a disaster for decades. We got exposed to its flaws decades ago ... and in some important ways it is worse now than back then.
I am enjoying the commentary by David Frum. He is Canadian and working both in Canada and in the USA. He seems to have a world view that aligns quite well with my own.
And of course, there is more stress between the USA and Canada under Trump's world view than at any time in my life!
This is insane ... but in my view ... a major mistake for the USA under the Trump agenda!
Until quite recently Canada was economically weak compared to the USA. One example of this was the inability of Canada to export its abundant heavy crude oil anywhere except to the United States at a very large discount to world prices. This has now changed with major new pipeline infrastructure that enables exports of Canadian crude from both the East and the West of Canada. Nothing needs to be sold via the USA any more.
Canada has been a major industrial partner in several industries important for the USA. One of these is the auto industry where there is deep integration between the two countries. If the USA chooses to disadvantage Canada as seems likely under Trump leadership, Canada and the USA will both lose ... but likely more the USA than Canada.
Canada is in a very strong position relative to the USA in terms of electric power generation. Canadian hydro-electicity supplies power to much of the US population in the Northern and North-Eastern states of the USA. If the existing arrangements are disrupted, Americans will get cold next winter!
While a lot of politicans are all talk and no action ... my initial impressive of the new Prime Minister of Canada, Mark Carney is that he is very strategic and has a lot of backing in Canada to make key critical changes ... and do it fast!
Soon, Trump and the USA will have to start 'playing defense'. It may not be pretty!
Peter Burgess
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In Conversation with David Frum: Trump's predatory foreign policy
The Hub Canada
48.6K subscribers ... 387,598 views ... 5.7K likes
Jan 31, 2025
In Conversation with David Frum
Leading author, journalist and thinker David Frum and The Hub's editor-at-large Sean Speer discuss the Trump administration’s early foreign policy positioning, including its antagonism towards allies and others, and what it may mean for Canada-U.S. relations and America’s relationships around the world.
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78 episodes
In Conversation with David Frum
The Hub Canada
Transcript
- 0:01
- [Music]
- [Applause]
- [Music]
- welcome to in conversation with David
- from I'm your host Sean spear editor at
- large at the Hub I'm honored to be back
- in conversation with David for another
- installment of our bi-weekly video
- podcast series on the key issues
- concerning Canadian policy and politics
- in today's conversation we'll cover the
- first week of the new Trump
- Administration including its bilateral
- tensions with Colombia over its
- deportation plans and what they might
- tell us about the administration's
- foreign policy towards its allies and
- others around the world David thanks as
- always for joining us thank you good to
- be here on the face of it David the
- Trump administration's tensions with
- Colombia may seem distant from the
- challenges that Canada is currently
- facing with Washington are there any
- 1:00
- parallels between the two in your mind
- what's your big picture reaction to this
- story the Columbia story is is very
- important because it's almost a perfect
- lab experiment of the damage that the
- Trump Administration um is doing to
- America standing in the world you know
- there's a say in Canada uh the the
- Americans are our best friends whether
- we like it or not so Canada and the
- United States are bound together by
- geography Canada Canada the United
- States and Mexico to a somewhat lesser
- extent are bound together by geography
- but more distant countries always always
- have options and that's something that
- needs to be kept in mind that's the
- moral of the story so Colombia um you
- people who have watched narcos remember
- it is a land uh of uh cocaine
- trafficking um and also Marxist gorillas
- those two forces tended to overlap and
- interpenetrate the Marxist gorillas did
- somea cocaine trafficking the cocaine
- traffickers made tactical alliances with
- Marxist gorillas it was one of the most
- violent places in the world in the 1990s
- and early 2000s and a ser series of
- 2:00
- United States governments starting with
- the Clinton Administration and very much
- through George W bush and culminating
- with Obama tried to broker piece between
- the political factions and tried to
- reorient the Colombian economy away from
- drugs to lawful Commerce Colombia is now
- a huge exporter for example of cut
- flowers um which is Valentine's Day is
- coming up very probably if you go to an
- American Grocery Store you are buying a
- product that was living in Colombia
- maybe 18 hours before and then was
- through a the miracle of modern
- information technology and
- transportation technology brought to you
- so that um you can share it with the
- people you
- love um Columbia has also sent some uh
- illegal immigrants to the United States
- and Columbia is also part of the traffic
- um through uh into the United States uh
- people all over the world will fly to
- South America Ecuador notably then
- Traverse by bus or other means through
- Colombia to Panama to get to the Mexican
- border and then onward to toward the
- United States States so Colombia um had
- 3:02
- a very pro-american government until
- 2022 and then it's altered to a much
- more left-wing government in 2022 run by
- not a kind of
- rational U value maximizing but by by
- someone who's borderline mentally ill
- and has a background with the Marxist
- guillas but nonetheless there's so much
- at stake that he cooperated too with the
- Biden Administration on repatriation and
- there were hundreds and hundreds of
- flights bringing illegal immigrants from
- the United States back to
- Colombia Colombia had a rule and it
- became more emphatic under the new
- president who won in 2022 we need um
- some concessions to our national dignity
- um that means for example not we don't
- want to see lots of Shackles on the
- people uh we want these flights to be
- very quiet private uh and we don't we we
- prefer chartered planes that don't have
- a lot of American Insignia on them that
- will help us to cooperate with you so
- what does Trump do he comes in and says
- okay right we're putting everybody in
- 4:00
- shackles and we're sending military
- planes with the US flag all over them
- and we're sending two and we're giving
- you just a few minutes notice that the
- planes are on their way we want to make
- this maximally insulting and the
- Colombian government again not disposed
- to be friendly to the United States said
- no uh we are not giving you Landing
- rights Trump then threatens all of these
- um forms of retaliation there's a lot of
- uproar as I mentioned Colombia's economy
- depends heavily on this just in time
- delivery of cut flowers they buy a lot
- from the United States too including
- cattle a lot of corn and cattle feed for
- their beef industry um and Colombia
- basically there's a mutual backdown that
- Colombia accepts the flight the United
- States says okay we will respect your
- terms for greater dignity for the people
- we repatriate and all is over and
- forgotten in the United States but not
- in Colombia uh because the moral of the
- story is again Columbia has options it's
- led by a President Who is not disposed
- to be friendly to the United States it
- does have important internal Marxist
- 5:01
- left movement um that has been brought
- into the political process uh and uh it
- has a lot of reasons to be a country
- interesting to China and other
- International Bad actors and the real is
- a reminder that the cost of the Trump
- Administration is I mean in the end
- Trump probably cannot rupture the
- relationship with Denmark he probably
- cannot rupture the relationship with
- Canada those relationships are too deep
- and big but a lot of but the United
- States's success since World War II has
- been persuading a lot of countries
- including countries with unfond memories
- of the United States like many in South
- and Latin America have to join the
- American lead system trade benefit
- security it's better for you um not
- because you love the United States so
- much not because Colombia has forgotten
- that what is now Panama and the Panama
- Canal used to be Colombian territory and
- was seized by the United States a little
- over a century ago they haven't
- forgotten that but it's better for them
- when Trump makes changes the terms of
- the deal so egregiously ly people who
- 6:00
- don't love you need not cooperate with
- you and the security costs that we
- should talk more about this are going to
- be big in this Hemisphere and around the
- world yeah well you mentioned China I
- just want to push on that point a bit
- longer David I mentioned before we
- started recording that a a foreign
- policy scholar friend of mine who
- actually has some sympathies with parts
- of the Trump administrations foreign
- policy said to me this week that this
- growing antagonism towards allies and
- other s risks isolating America and
- advantaging China uh what could be the
- consequences of that sort of dynamic
- well again we're not talking here about
- our real real deep friends we're talking
- about um countries that have options
- subsaharan African countries many
- southern part of of Latin America um
- countries in the indopacific so Chinese
- diplomacy makes an offer especially in
- Africa but everywhere where there are
- resources which is um we have things to
- give um we can help you build roads we
- 7:01
- can help you build dams we can lend you
- money um we can improve your ports as
- they've done in um Sri Lanka uh we don't
- ask a lot we don't have we don't care if
- you steal um we don't care if your
- leaders are uncorrupt are corrupt we
- certainly don't care if you're a
- democracy or not we don't care about
- human right um so we we have something
- to give and we don't ask much in return
- um now the United States can offer more
- um yeah they they don't offer the kind
- of we'll give you the free Highway the
- Chinese are doing but the United States
- we can integrate you into the whole
- world trade system the whole world
- banking system we have a lot to give but
- we also ask a lot um you know our our
- companies are not allowed to play pay
- bribes sometimes they do but they're not
- allowed to um our European partners are
- even strictor uh on the paying bribes
- question um we do care about human
- rights and democracy don't do anything
- too uh too egregious um and uh we do
- change policy every four years so it's
- not as predictable but we have a lot to
- give um
- 8:00
- and uh that offer has been accepted
- since the 1990s but again many countries
- that don't love the United States you
- know so long as the United States was
- facing the Soviet Union the main area of
- competition was Europe you're allied
- with democracies you allied with
- countries with deep cultural Affinity
- deep memories of World War II and World
- War I and the reconstruction after to
- balance China you have to work with
- Vietnam the Philippines India
- um Mongolia um countries that you know
- have have very different traditions and
- histories that are not bound by ties of
- sentiment um that are themselves often
- like Vietnam almost as authoritarian as
- China itself maybe even at equally
- authoritarian um and all of these
- countries are going to be saying um what
- kind of partner are you and says we're
- unpredictable uh we're capricious we
- have everything you didn't like about
- the United States before we change
- policy every four years we met too much
- in your Internal
- 9:01
- Affairs plus we offer less of
- integrating into a world economic system
- the United States is going to find
- itself with a much smaller Alliance
- Network facing for the first time in a
- long time a geopolitical rival that is
- economically capable financially capable
- technologically capable as well as
- militarily capable let's try to Define
- David what we're seeing out of the Trump
- administrations it's sometimes
- characterized by commentators and pundit
- as isolationism but it's my
- understanding you you don't think that's
- the right way to think about the Trump's
- po Trump administration's PS to the
- world how would you characterize this
- set of pro actions and provocations well
- when you a country that turns to one of
- its closest allies Denmark and says a
- territory where the United States and
- Denmark have cooperated since before the
- United States entered the second world
- war on security on on trade on many
- other things we want to seize that
- territory from you rule it against the
- 10:01
- will of its inhabitants um and if you
- don't comply we will punish you
- economically that's not isolationism
- that's predation uh with the When Donald
- Trump makes these quote unquote jokes
- about annexing Canada which are a little
- bit like a drunken husband making jokes
- about beating his wife maybe he's not
- actually going to do it but it's it's
- not comfortable for anybody at the table
- to hear him make these comments even if
- he never does it because you know he
- make killer um uh this is not
- isolationism this is a predatory
- attitude toward the rest of the world um
- and uh it's one in which the United
- States is under Trump is going to
- approach the world without recourse to
- without invoc invoking American values
- in a way that doesn't make others
- derisively smile um that offers less
- that demands more and that doesn't see
- it's like short-term opportunism that
- says we're so busy grabbing Greenland
- because one of my Mara Lago corrupt
- 11:00
- golfing buddies has some mining interest
- there uh that we are not seeing you know
- what the United States is very well
- served by the rule no territorial
- aggression anywhere on the
- planet there's a view David that you've
- no doubt seen and heard that that this
- Trump Administration is more
- sophisticated than the first one it has
- better people and better developed ideas
- if so what are we to make of the
- Colombia experience and these
- provocations towards Canada Denmark and
- other
- how is this part of some kind of
- sophisticated strategy or is there
- something else explaining it well let's
- be more exact about what we mean by
- sophisticated um this is definitely more
- technically competent Administration um
- they
- know how the levers connect to the
- Machinery in a way they didn't
- understand in Trump one so uh Trump one
- did not understand that if you want to
- for example block uh an independent
- Council you need not only to sweeten the
- Attorney General you also have to
- sweeten the deputy attorney general
- 12:01
- because if the Attorney General recuses
- himself the deputy attorney general then
- Trump didn't know that and that's how he
- got the Muer investigation so people
- around him know that now Trump one was
- also surrounded by people who thought he
- was a crazy person who needed to be
- stopped like his top economic adviser
- Gary con famously literally snatched
- papers off his desk so that Trump
- wouldn't sign them so they're no more
- Gary cones he's got people who broadly
- want to enable him but it's not
- sophisticated in that there's a smart
- plan here I mean let's just go back to
- the Greenland exam the most
- unequivocally successful war that the
- United States has fought
- from since 1945 was the Gulf War of 1990
- against Saddam Hussein and Kuwait what
- was that war about it it was about
- Saddam hsein annexing a territory
- against the will of its population and
- the United States mobilized a vast
- International Coalition um raised a lot
- of resources to repel Saddam and uphold
- the principle no aggression no
- territorial aggression by force course
- wasn't a democracy um the government
- 13:01
- wasn't elected by the people it was a
- lot more Humane than Saddam husin but
- the principle was no changing boundaries
- by force and the United States fought a
- war over that in 1990 now Trump memory
- doesn't go back that far but he has no
- object but everyone else remembers you
- used to think that that was important
- and now you're the Saddam Hussein
- against denmarc as Kuwait you know this
- world has changed and even if you're
- just trolling what kind of people with
- the world's largest economy the world's
- largest military you know they have to
- be very careful what they say there are
- no jokes when you're president um you
- know I I
- uh George Bush was a very funny man
- George W bush and U I wrote some jokes
- for him and I remember one of the jokes
- uh I I wrote was vetoed by Carl Rove
- personally and it was such a harmless
- joke and and I went to Rove to protest I
- said that joke was funny and Ro said the
- joke was indeed funny that's why we
- killed it because presidents shouldn't
- 14:00
- be that funny I thought about that a lot
- and was you know the psychologist tell
- us that humor is our response to
- discomfort so is something really funny
- that means we were really uncomfortable
- so the president you know with all that
- power behind him you know unless he has
- a good re he should always be
- underplaying it a little bit you know uh
- this will uh these these actions foreign
- government if continued may have severe
- consequences that's it that's all you
- have to say you say more than that you
- frighten everybody
- pointlessly your observations about
- borders and sovereignty David remind me
- of a podcast that we released last week
- with the US political commentator Henry
- Olsen who said that Canadian should be
- assured that Trump doesn't intend to
- Annex the country but that he's
- otherwise indifferent to the niceties of
- diplomacy or even National sovereignty
- we discussed for instance the
- possibility of establishing a US base in
- Northern Canada uh what do you think
- 15:02
- about this idea that M National borders
- just matter less to Trump and what do
- you think explains
- it um he's a
- thief um borders matter less other
- people's property matters less um women
- saying no matters less I mean he's a
- predator in his sexual life he's a
- predator in his business life of course
- he's a predator in his economic life and
- Henry Olson a longtime friend of mine um
- is an example of what's going someone
- from I have enormous respect and you
- want to know who's going to win the
- Bavarian elections Henry Olsson is your
- guy I me he knows more about that and
- and then after Bavaria you know want to
- know the Turkish Regional parliaments
- you know he's following that he's
- amazing but we should not be in the B
- business of saying you
- know that's just Don he makes jokes
- about slapping his wife all the time
- doesn't mean anything by it you know
- what shouldn't make jokes about slapping
- your wife and uh because you mean
- something by it because if you truly
- 16:01
- didn't mean it you would be as horrified
- by the joke as everybody else um you
- mentioned the potential security risks
- to America as result of this growing
- antagonism and in turn possible
- isolation for the country uh presumably
- the uh approach that has that has
- governed US foreign policy for the
- previous decades uh had its own set of
- assumptions about the benefits of
- cooperation uh with allies and others
- why don't you talk about the opportunity
- costs which could be significant uh if
- US policy fails to uh account for um the
- the the the rationale for long-standing
- Norms when it came to America's
- relationship with the world yeah I want
- to say one thing which is there some
- people will hear this and criticize me
- for saying you know David there was a
- lot of hypocrisy in what the United
- States did and they did sometimes you
- know play the game more their advantage
- and they didn't respect every border um
- 17:02
- and while there was usually some fig
- Leaf of international consensus when
- they overthrew the drug dealing um
- dictator of Panama same W bush HW Bush
- who defended Kuwait you know that wasn't
- exactly respectful of national
- sovereignty so I I want to make clear
- here that we're not going to be children
- about this um but that precisely because
- the United States has so many
- International responsibilities and
- sometimes does have to push the system a
- little bit if it's going the benefits of
- not terrifying the rest of the planet
- and maintaining International
- cooperation it always owes some decent
- respect that's they said in this
- declaration of inde some decent respect
- to the opinions of mankind um and uh so
- if you're going to push the rules you
- need to maintain a larger you need to
- maintain make sure that lots and lots of
- people are on your side and have a broad
- interest in what you're trying to do so
- here the opport here are the opportunity
- costs um as as we try to balance China
- as we try try to compete with China in
- ways that are peaceful as we try to
- 18:01
- avoid conflict the United States I think
- would win a war with China but the
- object is not to win a war with China
- the object is never to have one um and
- to contain China's bad behavior
- peacefully requires a much greater ratio
- of of strength because China will look
- at Taiwan and may say you know maybe we
- can get away with this if we're just
- against the United States but if they
- know that there's a security structure
- with India uh with Vietnam with the
- Philippines well it's hopeless it's just
- hope so don't even try don't test your
- luck because it's obviously one might
- work the other clearly won't and so to
- maintain peace to maintain the peace
- requires more visible strength than to
- actually to win a fight and in the
- nuclear era we don't want to have any
- big fights the final question David uh
- we're speaking on January 30th uh there
- are mixed messages out of the
- administration about whether we could
- see tariffs on Canada uh as early as
- this weekend how should we understand
- the conflicting messages and and what
- should we expect on the Tariff front
- 19:01
- there are people in the Trump
- Administration who are trying to use the
- threat of tariffs for actions that they
- regard as bureaucratically rational and
- then there's Trump who's doing it
- because he believes in them and thinks
- they will make America rich and great
- and powerful and so there's and and
- because Trump doesn't work very hard um
- that there's always a balance but this
- time he is much more focused on what
- what he wants to achieve so I'm not
- going to here predict what will happen
- I'm just saying that Canadians who are
- betting that the restraining factions
- will win in Trump 2 the way they tended
- to win in Trump one that is a big bet um
- with a lot at stake and as we have often
- discussed I think the operating
- assumption for any Canadian government
- is that Trump means it Trump will do it
- and Canada has to be ready that doesn't
- mean Canada's defenseless because uh
- there are people around Trump who will
- be aware of the cost of what he's trying
- to do as we saw with Colombia one of the
- reasons Trump backed off from his
- threats to Colombia was not that he was
- going to raise the cost of Valentine's
- 20:00
- Day to everybody in the United States
- but the Columbia is a huge importer of
- us corn products for to feed its cattle
- industry and that's a place where
- retaliation would fall on some very
- directly on some very important uh
- states that are very important to Trump
- the corn exporting Farm States um and
- everybody needs to have these tools and
- it it's just it's just awful I mean this
- is not the way which anybody should be
- using their bureaucratic brain power we
- should be thinking about how do we
- create enduring structures of peace and
- security and democracy in the Indo
- Pacific under American leadership but in
- Partnership and instead we're we're
- having to worry about defending the
- democracies against the United States
- and not against China David I said that
- was the final question but if you'll
- permit me let me just slide one more in
- um to end on a on perhaps a a happier
- and more optimistic note a a common
- theme of these conversations now running
- on um almost three years has been um the
- enduring benefit
- of of Commerce and free exchange and one
- 21:02
- of the things that has struck me in
- recent days uh in reaction to the
- anticipated terrorists from the Trump
- Administration is an implicit uh
- Acceptance in the minds of seemingly
- virtually all Canadians of the
- importance of free trade access to the
- US and the harm done by uh impediments
- uh to to to accessing the American
- Market are we in a way David seeing the
- decades long resistance to the notion of
- of free Commerce and free exchange uh
- essentially defeated in Canada and is
- that a reason um to to feel optimistic
- um notwithstanding some of the issues
- that we've been discussing today well
- let's hope I I I would like to end on an
- upbeat too but on this one I may not be
- able to because one of I'm hearing is
- more and more Revival of people um
- saying the Americans have left us no
- choice
- us being Canadians us being Europeans
- 22:01
- but to revert to the state-led
- development of the past what and here's
- the thing that needs to be stressed when
- the Democratic countries not the Soviet
- Union not Nazi Germany but when the
- Democratic countries and the
- semi-democratic countries of Latin
- America created um all the statism state
- Direction government control of
- investment that was not a the reason
- that Brazil did that in the 1930s or
- that Great Britain did it in the 1940s
- and 50s was not because large numbers of
- people had been convinced that socialism
- was good some people had but much more
- they realized that the World Trading
- order that had existed before the first
- world war had
- collapsed uh it had led to depression
- and everybody was on their own and
- therefore this was many but that in
- places like Brazil and Great Britain and
- and and Canada too um that there were a
- small number of people who really
- believed in state Le development allied
- with a lot of people thought that's the
- only workable
- option no one's maintaining a free trade
- 23:01
- system um Britain maintained the free
- trade system before 1914 the United
- States has maintained it since 1945
- there was a very nasty thread of a
- century in between with two world wars a
- Great Depression Holocaust communism um
- and we we should have learned our
- blinking lesson it's in books it's in
- books you do not have to learn it the
- hard way it is in books read them but uh
- what did Benjamin Franklin say
- experience keeps a dear school but fools
- will attend no
- other a great way to wrap up uh a
- comprehensive conversation David I want
- to thank you for joining me and I look
- forward to catching up in a couple of
- weeks thank you byebye
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