TrueValueMetrics ... Impact Accounting for the 21st Century

Date: 2025-05-01 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00028191

TRUMP HEADING INTO 'TRAITOR' TERRITORY Times Radio: Ukraine could walk from US talks as Putin cracks Trump's cabinet. Journalist Michael Bociurkiw explains PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aa5cIKmBSeQ Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Ukraine could walk from US talks as Putin cracks Trump's cabinet Times Radio 1.3M subscribers Mar 10, 2025 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security 'If they're going to give concessions away to Russia without asking for anything in return, there comes a point pretty soon where everyone says, okay, let's give that up.' Withdrawal of US support and concessions to the Kremlin could Push Ukraine and other US allies out of Washington's influence as Trump's team starts to crack over it's approach to the Kremlin, warns Journalist Michael Bociurkiw. Join this channel to get access to perks - / @listentotimesradio 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Transcript 0:00 Mr Trump in what I think was a bluff threatened Russia with h tariffs and banking sanctions problem there is I think trade is down to $3 billion which is nothing and I think most of the sanctions on banks have already been levied so um you know it's I I think for now the ukrainians and others are okay with seeing the Americans there at the table but I don't think they have a long rope in the sense that um if they're going to give so many concessions away to Russia as they already have without asking any for anything in the turn I think they'll come a point pretty soon where everyone says okay let's give that up hello and welcome to Frontline times radio's interview series about the war in Ukraine and Global Security I'm James Hansen and today I'm delighted to be joined by Michael baser a ukraine-based global Affairs analyst with more than two decades of experience in humanitarian work and international journalism Michael's also a senior fellow at the ATC Council and has been a 1:01 spokesperson for the organization for security and cooperation in Europe he's also an author and a regular commentator for many International media outlets and we always appreciate his time Michael welcome back good to be with you especially in these times that demands times radio well I mean certainly there is a lot happening at the moment the news Visa the war in Ukraine is coming is coming so thick and fast it's hard to keep up with sometimes give me your assessment of the geopolitical state of play as we enter this new week we've got these talks taking place between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia this week how do you see the LIE of the land well that's a tough question but I'll do my best um you know generally we can sum it up right now whether you're a leader of Canada of Europe or of Ukraine in an era of what I'm calling Trump Whiplash foreign policy when something is said or some policy is introduced one day and then the next you have 180 2:00 degree flop turnaround so I I cannot imagine what it would be like to be a policy planner in any of these governments but um you know as the newly the prime minister in Waiting in Canada said uh these are very very uncertain times and you know we have to deal with it accordingly um and this of course makes it very very tough for someone like Mr zalinsky the president of Ukraine to enter into um what are hopefully peace talks uh with the United States which is also of course trying to uh negotiate with Russia uh in order to find a long-lasting ceas fire and peace um but you know the other kind of uh Cloud if you will overhanging all of this is we're also at a time where dictators whether you're a leader in Russia in Iran uh North Korea China uh Venezuela let's add them uh you know you're feeling uh probably free reign like um especially if you're in the Kremlin 10 Christmases coming at once 3:02 when um you know without offering any concessions the United States normalizes diplomatic relations it cuts off military aid and intelligence to your number one enemy Ukraine uh where it's also floating ideas for example U of normalizing flights as well between the two is just a time when I think the rules-based international order is in a bit of Freefall and a bit of a sidebar to this because I think it connects with what I just said you know if you're an autocratic like XU Jinping sitting in Beijing and you know you've got your eye on the tantalizing Target of Taiwan uh I'm sure that they're doing new calculations trying to figure out whether now is the time to move and in fact as we speak there's effectively a uh quarantine by China of Taiwan by cutting of Submarine inter cables that 4:00 sort of thing but going back to the situation here of course um this is happening at a time when Europe is absolutely scrambling um in a chaotic way to decide what to do uh to decide how to come up with the funds to help arm not only themselves or and Ukraine also in in this period when the US is withdrawing uh from the European security umbrella um I don't have much sympathy for them to be frank because I think during Trump 1.0 if there should have been one thing one thing they should have learned is that uh us assistance military assistance is very very unpredictable expect more trade Wars and um we are slowly seeing this now um that you know a lot of countries um I think led by the United Kingdom and France in this regard are preparing their citizens for a wartime economy again there should have been a long long 5:01 time ago and one or two more things we're also in a situation where leaders in the alliance that uh the block that supported Ukraine are changing um Mr Trudeau has just left the scene um we're having um elections in various other countries we just had German German Germany um there's uncertainty in Romania there are Parliamentary elections uh in a few months here in mova where Russia will try to play a very very very heavy hand so um you know let let's end this way if you're uh someone say you know sitting in Odessa or kiev for that matter and trying to figure out what to do well um you have to probably hope for the best and plan for the worst and part of that planning for the worst could be that in this period of um a void a vacuum where someone like Mr Putin does not see whatsoever any solid red lines that were 6:01 previously in place that are enforced by the United States now is the time to move so I I fear that he may try to do that not only make gains on the front lines um expel the ukrainians out of the kurk region that they occupy in Russia uh bomb the haut of Ukrainian cities nightly which he's doing but also possibly make another territorial play a big one uh from U the Left Bank of the neuro River and Kon up to MV up to Odessa and for the time being possibly up to the m mova border which would you know in an instant make Ukraine a landlock country yeah I mean you mentioned the the bombardments of Ukrainian towns and cities that we've seen over recent days the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk has said this is what happens when someone appeases barbarians you mentioned Michael you are currently speaking to us from mova what is the mood there because a lot of people say look if we do not deter Vladimir Putin's aggress aggression it 7:01 is potentially someone like mova that could be next yeah absolutely I I've talked to a lot of people since I've arrived here in the past couple days and there's really really heightened anxiety here because um you know uh of course they have uh Russian pro-russian uh controlled strip of land called transnistria or we might as well call it Russian controlled um the also are they have a fragile economy right now they've weaned themselves off of Uh Russian energy supplies and now they're switching to more European supplies um but you know it is not a wealthy country they have no Air Force to speak with speak about so um you know when you have situations like that if we as we've seen in other democracies in the world uh people who are near or below the poverty line are very um vulnerable to being bribed or paid out um and of course there's so many other tools in the Russian Playbook that could be used here in mova um as we saw happen 8:02 in Romania use of exercising social media to put a pro-russian candidate near the front while he's now apparently been disqualified um you know suffering of communication links uh it's fairly easy to do uh causing disruption and um also um the situation here is there's a very very big uh diaspora of movens around the world and uh they're big enough a block as we've seen in the recent referendum on EU membership and also the presidential elections they can sway the vote it's a vote that usually comes in later in the vote counting but um uh that that that happens as well so but they um reminders of um the Soviet Union are all over the place here in the capital kisher now uh and uh they do remember those harsh harsh days and it's such a a beautiful Progressive Nation 9:00 with the demographic of young people that most countries would really covet a lot of people in technology for instance they've um played uh they've they've opened their doors to uh something like 880,000 Ukrainian Asylum Seekers who are all contributing to the economy so yeah but I I don't think I felt this state of anxiety here as previous visits just on the the peace talks happening this week or or the discussions happening this week between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia we understand they're going to begin between officials tomorrow and president zinski is is in Saudi Arabia today what why does Ukraine need to involve the US in these discussions anymore if the Trump Administration is no longer even pretending to be an honest broker if it has essentially switched sides to take Vladimir Putin side if it's po military aid and intelligence sharing then then what is the obligation for Ukraine to involve the US in these discussions 10:01 could they not negotiate directly with the Russians or or could they try and use the European say as a kind of mediator well that's a very good question and I think you're the first one to ask me that so um I I don't think they're um in a state of play for example to have direct bilateral talks with Russians although let's remember that that did take place pretty much at the start of the war um there were uh talks in bellarus and turkey I believe um but I think um the United States is viewed as pretty much the only we can still call them a superpower that has sway over Russia uh in theory uh because of its military might its ability to um apparently I should use the word apparently to inflict more economic harm on Russia although I although I think 11:00 most levers there have been pulled by the previous administration Mr Trump in what I think was a bluff threatened Russia with tariffs and banking sanctions problem there is I think trade is down to $3 billion which is nothing and I think most of the sanctions on banks have already been levied so um you know it's I I think for now the ukrainians and others are okay with seeing the Americans there at the table but I don't think they have a long rope in the sense that um if they're going to give so many concessions away to Russia as they already have without asking any for anything in the turn I think they'll come a point pretty soon where everyone says okay let's give that up and you know uh I think turkey for example is well placed they've hosted talks in the past as I've mentioned um Mr erdogan is a tough guy I think he you know he he does like Ukraine but he is seen by the Russians as pretty neutral he has both 12:03 leaders Putin and zalinski on speed um I don't know you know these talks coming up this week are being hosted by Saudi Arabia I don't know if they want to take a direct role but they might and um you know they um they are if you read the Saudi press uh as I did today they view themselves as a um reliable neutral professional broker they're actually very very excited to be placed on this geopolitical platform as part of their kind of rebranding image um and also you know they have uh some scores to settle um Russia for example is um providing assistance to the iran-backed houti rebels in Yemen let's not forget who uh they've received targeting information from the rushers to Russians to strike commercial ships in the Red Sea um but uh you you know maybe as part of this uh you know the 13:02 the Saudis could use it as an opportunity to get the Russians back on board and then you know the other thing here I was thinking today uh Saudi Arabia of course has received a lot of funding and aid from the United States in the past but again I think it's part of their Vision 2030 uh like India is doing they're going to be looking at diversifying um for example military purchases not relying solely for example on the United States if you look at their commercial Flagship carrier Flagship Airline Sadia is uh if I'm not mistaken an entire Boeing Fleet um and you know again the Indians are discovering I was recently there that um maybe it's not a good idea just to rely on Russia as your biggest supplier of military um equipment or military kit maybe look towards France and other European countries too do you think Michael we may also see the possibility of a fra ing of of the 14:00 Trump Administration when it comes to Ukraine the New York Times reported over the weekend about a very fractur cabinet meeting that happened last week reportedly a spat between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Elon Musk over musk's department for government efficiency Doge as it's become known and obviously that that's not directly about Ukraine but we understand that behind the scenes musk and Rubio have slightly different approaches to Ukraine do you think there's a chance that some of those divisions could spill over into the way the Trump Administration is approaching the War I don't think so and I'll tell you why because I think um there may come a point pretty soon um it's hard to believe the um inauguration was in January we're only in March seems like an eternity ago but I wouldn't be surprised if Marco Rubio um exits on his own I think the other thing you'll see if there is any dissent at the cabinet table or elsewhere you'll see um Trump um voiced his favorite phrase you're 15:02 fired so he won't tolerate any descent whatsoever and you know you do have to wonder because I I think um there are some U grown up uh genes in some of these key players from the American side that they do see the value of bringing peace to the region because we're also interwined and interconnected these days that you know a a War or conflict in one part of the world can easily affect entire global economy so I think um the the gentlemen coming to the negotiating table this week um are sincere about wanting peace although they do tend to contradict themselves as well but at the end of the day it's Mr Trump to make the decision and uh as the Canadians are finding out very quickly he can say one thing one day and another thing completely different the next depending perhaps of what mood he woke up when you know what mood he woke up in or what he ate that day or what was the last thing 16:00 someone whispered into his ear but one thing um this is kind of going back to your earlier question is um I think it's also becoming clear or if it didn't become clear to people should have in that Oval Office uh chaotic dust up that Mr Trump has in his um uh puppet vice president JD Vance has have unbelievable animosity towards Mr zalinski and towards Ukraine I don't think this was an act I think what you saw was genuine anger um bubbling like like bubbling up like Lava Hot Lava out of a volcano um uh Mr Trump you know recalled things that go back years and years and years and the problem with his type of Personality trait I think is that he doesn't forget things he's very vindictive and of course that doesn't uh play well for Ukraine oh I wanted to ask you about the importance of Elon Musk starlink satellit system because over the weekend 17:00 he called it the backbone of the Ukrainian Army and he said their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off separately Marco Rubio had a spat with the Polish foreign minister over who is paying for the starlings how important are they to the Ukrainian war effort and do you think there is a chance that Elon Musk says you're not using them anymore yeah there is a very good chance I mean he reportedly restricted uh use of the starlake system um over Crimea the Ukrainian border there giving the ukrainians a disadvantage because he apparently thought that this might lead to World War III or something like that but um you know I I think uh in a way it was good that this came out in public because now gives the ukrainians an opportunity and it certain certainly set off alarm bells and Warsaw and other European capitals that something needs to be produced to repl to um replace this and yeah the Ukrainian military is very very reliant on them it gives you 18:02 internet access basically Anywhere But as Mr zalinsky pointed out as well there are a lot of um humanitarian and other organizations in Ukraine that rely on it I mean I used it the other day on a bus traveling from um Odessa to the Border there's starlink available there so um Ukraine is a very high-tech wired place but you know closer to get to the front you get to the front line the more damage and destruction there is um overhead wires underground C things like that so um you need a kind of independent secure very secure system like that I mean you know you mentioned Elon Musk uh the the king of the tech Bros and uh there are questions now being raised in the past days after that apparent um chaos at the in the cabinet room how long he will be around because the other thing we do know about Mr Trump by this point is that he doesn't like anybody overshadowing him and um I think um I may be going a 19:03 little bit off topic here but I think it's important to say this I think um you know at the pace they're going with cutting uh jobs and benefits that are now very indiscriminate to the point that they're affecting veterans and other supporters of Mr Trump um that this could very well backfire and I don't mean only Mr Elon Musk uh exiting the city seen but a huge uh turmoil in the United States I've had very very smart American friends tell me they fear that because of what's going on that there's very rapid Pace who knows there could be a Civil War and you think it's it's perfectly possible that that in the next who knows few weeks few months not only might Marco Rubio leave the administration you think Elon Musk may as well yeah I think so um you know he's going 20:01 to become uh kind of the lightning rod for all of this that's happening they're going to either very quickly or a few weeks down the road road realize that a lot of these um let's call it destruction to the federal bureaucracy is U going to really make people's lives harder I mean I was stunned um when Mr Trump in his bombastic address to the Joint session Congress said you're going to to addressing Americans you're going to feel a little bit of pain uh I think it's going to be a lot of pain and you know now we see he's backtracking on certain things for example tariffs that he slapped onto the Auto industry he's realizing oh gosh that's going to raise the price of cars or you know these big gas guzzling machines um prices all over could go up so um it's it's it's turning out to be a little bit like an Administration in in chaos uh and um again as we've already talked about it's causing so much chaos and uncertainty I 21:01 mean it's got to the point clearly where it's already influenced um the uh uh race for the new leader leader of the liberal party in Canada uh the Liberals have vastly improved their uh support in in Canada whereas the ru the opposition conservatives may not have have a majority government they're still going to win but not to the point where they thought and then similarly in Ukraine uh the popularity of zalinski has gone up quite a bit because of Mr Trump's attack and I'm not talking about only the official um polling data but in my daily interactions with countless ukrainians they all say he's he's he's a strong leader we have to hang on to him you mentioned Canada there Michael ju ju just finally on the election of Mark Carney is the new leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and he will become of course the the next Canadian Prime Minister how sign ific moment is that and is he the right man to stand up to 22:02 Trump he says that Canada will win the trade war with Trump and of course Canada also now feels a certain Ally ship with Ukraine because you've got these threats of making Canada the 51st state as a Canadian yourself do you have faith in Mark Carney well um I think he's untested as a politician that does worry me he's a technocrat I mean for someone to come and fix the economic ills that we have in Canada best man for the job we have a housing crisis we have a Health crisis we have an immigration crisis we have that ongoing trade war with the United States we have threats of Mr Trump um annexing Canada or perhaps more re realistically for example redrawing historic treaties for which for example govern the use of shired waters in the Great Lakes I mean this was Unthinkable a few weeks ago but I do worry um about his um posture um 23:00 his PR capabilities I did watch him this morning on television and um he just doesn't come anywhere near Trudeau's Showmanship which is very very difficult to uh you know copy or emulate but I don't think he even comes close to the uh conservative opposition leader Pierre po PV um so he's going to have a tough time um one thing that is good I think is he going he's going to vasely M down the Canadian cabinet which has really swollen under the trudo years um and that's what Canadians want as do many Americans they want to see a Slimmer more efficient government there was also a very a couple of very interesting Ukraine links here of course um uh the number two Challenger chrisy Freeland who is the former Minister of Finance and um Deputy Prime Minister who had a falling out with Trudeau um she uh was in the race she only got something like 4% compared to Mr carne's 60% plus um it 24:00 was a humiliating defeat for her and uh you had a huge mobilization of the Ukrainian community in Canada to get out the vote for her of course you have to sign up to be a party member and then you can influence things or donate to her campaign but I think she was uh regarded as toxic Goods too closely tied to um the Trudeau policies um and resigned far too late he was already in the phase of introducing voodoo economics that no one could really understand so um we'll see but um you know and the other thing is let's see how how long Mr Carney will be prime minister because an election has to happen by this fall um the Liberals no longer have a cooperation agreement with the new Democratic party in Parliament um as soon as they resume Parliament uh presumably later this month um things could happen very quickly from for there but one final thought on this is that uh let there be no doubt I mean Canada 25:01 needs a very very strong United team right now and um you know uh the the level of patrio patriotism I'm seeing from Canadians is amazing we never had this before but you're also seeing um premieres of very powerful provinces like Ontario not only saying yes we have to act as one but introducing their own unilateral uh measures if that ranging from pulling us boo off the shelves of perally run liquor stores to threatening to cut off electricity to millions of Americans um again this uh does not play well into the hands of Mr Trump and his popularity ratings again when when people start to not have electricity or pay double at the pump or not you know not able to afford basic food stuff stuffs that's going to be a big problem for him Mike it's always great to get your Insight and your analysis thank you so much 26:01 again for joining us my pleasure thank you thank you for watching Frontline for times radio with me James Hansen for more on the war in Ukraine and other Global conflicts you can subscribe or sign up for a membership for exclusive videos and you can also get the latest news and Analysis on times radio or from the times.com

SITE COUNT