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GEOPOLITCS THE GLOBAL RARE EARTHS ECONOMY The Military Show: Even US Shocked by EU’s Surprise Ukraine Deal! PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf6EMeIXLVw Peter Burgess COMMENTARY I am in a state of considerable annoyance. I have been interested in world affairs for most of my life ... I am now 85 years old ... and it bothers me that war and violence are such a big part of decion outcomes. The harder I look at socio-enviro-economic data, the more it annoys me that all the people with power are implementing actions that are self-serving with little or no thinking about the cost to everyone else. I had an interesting formal education that involved engineering, economics, accountancy and corporate management. I used these disciplines in my work over many decades ... but mostly organizations, both big and small, use only a tiny subset of management numbers. Most major investors work on the basis that 'greed is good' and more profit is always the best outcome. While there has been global progress in quality of life over the paste several decades, t is nothing like what it could have and should have been. There are many places where quality of life for the general population has declined in the last several decades while national GDP is reported to be increasing. How can that be? A massive increase in inequality. I am more than a little annoyed that the general media that comes to me quite routinely every day has not talked about rare earths in Ukrain until the last few days! What happened to spark the media's interest? Peter Burgess
Even US Shocked by EU’s Surprise Ukraine Deal! The Military Show Feb 26, 2025 1.41M subscribers #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis A new war is brewing in Ukraine—but this time, it’s not about Russia. The U.S. and Europe are now competing for control over Ukraine’s vast reserves of critical minerals, essential for everything from renewable energy to military tech. Donald Trump has been negotiating a deal to secure U.S. access to Ukraine’s minerals, but the EU has stepped in with an offer of its own. As tensions rise, questions remain: Who will win this economic battle? What does Ukraine stand to gain (or lose)? And why are these minerals so crucial for global power dynamics? With China dominating the mineral market and Russia holding key Ukrainian mining sites, this deal could shift the balance of power. Has Zelenskyy played his cards right, securing U.S. and EU support in a way that strengthens Ukraine’s long-term security? Watch the full video to break down the latest in this high-stakes geopolitical showdown. Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on the Ukraine war! Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: / @themilitaryshow #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/ZMnJTRMp ATTRIBUTIONS: https://pastebin.com/PMYDViSy Transcript 0:00 There’s a new war brewing in Ukraine, this time between the EU and the US. This fight has less to do with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his “special military operation,” and instead comes down to something that Ukraine has and the rest of the world wants – critical minerals. The U.S. is already negotiating a deal with Ukraine for tho se minerals. Now, Europe has come storming into the fight with a deal of its own. But what do those deals offer Ukraine? Who’s going to win between the U.S. and Europe? And why do Ukrainian minerals matter so much in the first place? On February 24, news started circulating that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump were negotiating. They weren’t talking about ways to end the Ukraine war. Rather, the subject of discussions focused on Ukraine’s vast reserves of critical minerals. Trump wants those minerals, badly. The BBC reported that Ukraine and the U.S. were already close to signing a deal that would see the U.S. gain enormous access to Ukraine’s 1:00 mineral deposits. “Negotiations have been very constructive,” wrote Ukraine’s Deputy Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olga Stefanishyna in an X post. “…Nea rly all key details [are] finalized.” Stefanishyna added that Ukraine was committed to proceeding to the signature stage as quickly as possible. The news came amidst Ukraine facing growing pressure from the United States. Trump has been surprisingly vocal in his criticism of Zelenskyy in recent weeks. He’s labeled Ukraine’s leader as a dictator and even insinuated that Ukraine started the war with Russia. However, these claims by America’s president may have been a smokescreen. Perhaps Trump was both pulling the wool over Putin’s eyes and using his growing relationship with Russia’s President to push Ukraine into giving him what he wants. It looks like the ploy worked. However, talk about Ukraine’s critical mineral deposits isn’t anything new. When Zelenskyy met with Trump in September 2024, while the latter was still on the campaign trail, he presented a Ukrainian “victory plan.” Rumors at the time suggested this plan contained an agreement to provide the 2:02 U.S. with access to Ukraine’s minerals. This represented Zelenskyy playing the political game. By offering Trump something he knew the future U.S. President wanted, he gave Trump a tangible reason to continue supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia. After all, the U.S. wouldn’t get any of the minerals if Putin’s forces overcame Ukraine’s defenses. All seemed to be on track with the deal. But there was a problem. When negotiations started, Trump told Zelenskyy that the U.S. wanted a 50% share of all of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. According to Trump, that would reflect the amount of aid the U.S. has provided to Ukraine over the last three years of its war with Russia. America’s President claims that U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine totals $500 billion. Zelenskyy believes otherwise. He says that American assistance so far totals around $100 billion, while also pointing out that the aid Ukraine has received so far was a grant, not a form of credit. Ukraine has no obligation to repay the U.S. for that aid. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s support tracker places 3:04 the actual figure somewhere in the middle, though far closer to Zelenskyy’s estimate. It says the U.S. has provided Ukraine with $119.79 billion so far, with a few billion more yet to be allocated. Regardless of who was right, the deal asked too much of Ukraine. Zelenskyy outright refused. “I can’t sell our state,” Ukraine’s President replied, which prompted a redrafting of the deal. That redraft was even worse for Ukraine. Zelenskyy told reporters that the new draft called for the U.S. to have full control over Ukraine’s minerals. It also didn’t contain the security guarantees that Zelenskyy wanted to see from the U.S. “I will not sign what 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back,” Zelenskyy said in a press conference after receiving the Sunday redraft. International opinions about the American deal are divided. Former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson supports it. He claimed on February 24 that access to Ukraine’s minerals was a “great prize” while 4:01 rejecting calls claiming that America’s tabled proposals were a rip-off. “What the Ukrainians get from this is a United States commitment under Donald Trump to a free, sovereign, and secure Ukraine,” claimed Johnson. Other commentators disagreed, with some describing the proposed deal as “colonial” – a way for the U.S. to take control of Ukraine without actually invading the country. Again, the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. But most seemed to agree that the proposed U.S. deal wasn’t mutually beneficia, and the EU has decided it’s time to act. As all of this political wrangling has been going on, Europe was paying very close attention. The continent has its own concerns over America’s maverick President. It worries that the U.S. will strong arm Ukraine to get the deal it wants by threatening to withdraw aid from Zelenskyy’s brave forces. There are also ongoing concerns about what all of that would mean for NATO, with the possibility that Trump might pull the U.S. out of the collective defense organization still looming. So, Europe came up with a plan. Rather than allow the U.S. to sign a critical minerals deal with Ukraine, the continent would 5:03 offer one of its own. This deal would give Ukraine more control over its precious resources while being beneficial to the entire continent. That deal has now been offered. At least, that’s according to Politico, which reported on the European Union’s, or EU’s, supposed offer to Ukraine on February 25. It said that Europe had offered a new deal to Ukraine just as Trump was claiming that the U.S. was close to inking a deal with Zelenskyy. The pitch was made by Stéphane Séjourné, who is the European Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, during a visit to Kyiv that marked the third anniversary of Putin’s invasion of the country. “21 of the 30 critical materials Europe needs can be provided by Ukraine in a win-win partnership,” Séjourné claimed when speaking to Agence France Press. “The added value Europe offers is that we will never demand a deal that’s not mutually beneficial,” added the Commissioner. That sounds a lot more like what Zelenskyy wants out of a deal. With Europe, he’d hand over less control of Ukraine’s rare mineral resources while maintaining a multi-country security partner. 6:00 It sounds like an easy choice, right? But there’s another twist to the tale. Even as Séjourné claimed that he’d offered a new deal to Ukraine, the European Commission denied that such a proposal existed. On February 25, The Kyiv Independent published a report in which it quoted European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier. “There is no proposal,” Regnier told the outlet, adding that the EU already has a deal with Ukraine relating to critical raw materials that was formalized in 2021 via the Memorandum of Understanding. In other words, the EU deal already exists. “This dates back four years” added Regnier. “This cooperation is not only about securing supply chains for the EU but also about fostering local value creation and capacity building in partner countries ensuring mutual benefits.” Regnier also added that Séjourné’s comments weren’t meant to imply that Europe was competing with the U.S. on a deal. “This is really here about cooperation with Ukraine and not about any sort of competition with the U.S.” added the spokesperson. Regnier noted that Séjourné was simply reinforcing the EU’s intention to work alongside Ukraine per the agreements made via the 7:03 Memorandum of Mutual Understanding. It all feels a little…murky. One minute, we seem to be seeing the U.S. and EU lining up to fight over who gets control over Ukraine’s vast mineral assets. The next minute, the EU is pulling out of that fight, claiming that any deal being mentioned in reports is just a deal that the EU signed back in 2021. Soon, that murkiness may clear away. After all, it looks like the U.S. has gotten what it wants. In the early hours of February 26, Ukraine claimed that it had agreed to terms with the U.S. on the crucial minerals deal. No confirmation has come from the office of President Trump as of the writing of this video, likely due to the time difference between Ukraine and the U.S. However, the agreed-upon deal seems more favorable to Ukraine than the one Trump presented to Zelenskyy on February 23. Sky News reports that the new American deal no longer contains an initial demand from the U.S. for $500 billion of the potential revenue generated by Ukraine’s resources. That appears to be a major backpedal for Trump. Whether he 8:02 still feels Ukraine owes the U.S. $500 billion doesn’t matter. If Ukraine is to be believed, the U.S. won’t be receiving that money via the minerals deal. However, Ukraine doesn’t get it all its own way in the revised agreement. The latest draft doesn’t include a commitment from the U.S. to provide security guarantees to Ukraine should a ceasefire between it and Russia be negotiated. That’s something Ukraine desperately needs. It doesn’t want to find itself coming under Russian attack again once it starts rebuilding during a ceasefire. Still, the deal is a massive step forward for Zelenskyy’s relationship with Trump. Once signed, it’ll start a new long-term partnership between the two that sees the U.S. get what it wants, which will keep Trump happy. The lack of security guarantees is a concern for Ukraine. However, it may be assumed that the U.S. will step in should Putin attack again after a ceasefire, if not to protect Ukraine then to ensure the money generated from the country’s minerals keeps on flowing. But what minerals does Ukraine have? And why are they so important that they’ve almost sparked a 9:00 brief negotiation war between the U.S. and EU? As Séjourné said on February 25, Ukraine is home to 21 of the 30 rare earth minerals that the EU classifies as “critical raw materials.” Its reserves of these minerals are vast. The United Nations Regional Information Center for Western Europe says that Ukraine is home to 5% of the world’s reserves of these minerals, which include the likes of lithium, graphite, niobium, and cobalt. Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources Svetlana Grinchuk pointed this out in 2022 while speaking at the UN Economic Commission for Europe. She said Ukraine is home to 5% of the rare earth mineral reserves despite the country only accounting for 0.4% of the Earth’s surface. In other words, Ukraine is a treasure chest of precious minerals.ex It’s just waiting for allies to help it unlock the chest. Lithium is the headline mineral of the bunch. The mineral is an essential ingredient in rechargeable batteries, which are used in everything from smartphones and laptops to electric cars and 10:02 weaponry. Ukraine has a lot of it – about 500,000 tons according to the National Academy of Sciences in Ukraine. The problem is that two of the country's key mining sites – Shevchenkivskyi in Donetsk and Kruta Balka in Zaporizhzhya – are currently located in conflict zones. Russia is actively fighting Ukraine in territories where its rare earth minerals are found. That’s no coincidence. Behind all of Putin’s rhetoric about wanting to reclaim Ukraine as part of Russia, there’s a clear desire to get his hands on the country’s valuable resources. That’s one of the reasons why he spent much of 2024 and into 2025 pushing for Donetsk. Putin hopes that claiming the territory will give him access to a steady supply of lithium. And it’s even better if a peace plan with Ukraine allows Russia to keep the territory it's captured so far – Russia would get full control over the resources in Donetsk. Right now, Moscow is believed to control around 40% of Ukraine’s metallic minerals. Russia also occupies territory containing 63% of 11:00 Ukraine’s coal mines, along with half of its cesium, tantalum, manganese, and rare earth deposits. According to Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, those resources are worth about $350 billion alone. Seizing those assets is key to Putin’s war strategy because it allows him to cut off a key source of income to Ukraine. Before Putin launched his February 2022 invasion, Ukraine’s minerals accounted for 6.1% of its gross domestic product and 30% of its exports. And there are other minerals besides lithium to which Europe and the U.S. want access. For instance, Ukraine provided 7% of the titanium used around the world in 2019. That rare metal is used for building planes and nuclear power plants. It was also responsible for 20% of the world’s graphite before Russia invaded, which is another material used in nuclear power plants, along with electric vehicles. Ukraine is also perfectly positioned to meet rising global demand, according to the UN. It says that demand for copper is expected 12:00 to increase by 40% over the next few decades, with demand for lithium rising by 90% during the same period. There’s also demand on the environmental front. The International Energy Agency says that meeting global net-zero carbon emissions by 2030 requires the opening of 50 new lithium mines, along with 17 cobalt and 60 nickel mines. Again, Ukraine is home to all of those materials, which could make it a crucial contributor to combating global climate change. All of this brings us to the question of why Ukraine’s mineral resources are so important to the U.S. and EU. We’ve just touched on one of the answers. Ukraine’s rare mineral reserves are going to become increasingly vital in the coming years. Not that they aren’t already. Global demand for lithium and copper is already massive. But as more countries move toward renewable energy technologies, demand will only grow. Think about what that means from a profit perspective. On the lithium front, a single ton of this material costs $10452.30 13:01 as of February 25. Multiply that by 500,000 – which is the number of tons Ukraine has in its reserves – and you get $5.226 billion. And that’s a low-end price. In December 2022, per-ton prices for lithium were around $80,000. That would have made Ukraine’s reserves worth a massive $40 billion. The price of this material may rise again given the world’s increasing use of lithium in electric products. As other reserves run dry, Ukraine’s lithium could be a massive money spinner for Europe and the U.S. Dr. Robert Muggah, who’s the Principal of SecDev, expands on this. He points out that critical minerals “are the foundation of the 21st century economy.” They are crucial in renewable energy, as already mentioned, but also offer expansive military and industrial infrastructure applications. Muggah claims these minerals are playing “a growing strategic role in geopolitics and geoeconomics.” With that growing role will come more potential for profit, which is great for Ukraine. But it’s also great for Trump because 14:01 it means he gets to claim a big win in clawing back the money he believes Ukraine owes the U.S. However, future profit may not be the main reason that Trump wants Ukraine’s minerals so badly. There’s another factor at play here: China. Right now, China is one of the dominant powers in critical mineral refining capacity. The Guardian says Beijing handles refining for about 35% of the world’s nickel, along with up to 70% of its lithium and cobalt. It’s also the biggest player when it comes to rare earth elements, or REEs. China accounted for nearly half of the world’s supply of REEs in 2024 and handled almost 90% of its refining of these precious materials. Now, think about what Donald Trump has done to China since he became U.S. President. He’s instigated a trade war with China using his tariffs. Trump’s 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports took effect on February 4. Trump also claims that he’s going to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., which will include China’s metals. This has already triggered a response from Beijing. China 15:04 is taking a tit-for-tat approach to Trump’s approach by implementing tariffs of its own. It b now has a 15% border tax that applies to all imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal products, along with a 10% tariff on large-engine cars, crude oil, and agricultural machinery. China also imposed a ban on rare mineral exports to the U.S. in December 2024. That ongoing trade battle is evolving into a major problem for the U.S. on the critical minerals front. With China being so deeply entrenched in that sector, the U.S. has to look for alternatives to keep supplies of these minerals flowing into the country. Trump’s deal with Ukraine is his “get out of jail free” card when it comes to the mineral issue. The EU likely sees a similar threat related to China controlling so much of the world’s critical mineral reserves, which is why it struck its own deal with Ukraine back in 2021. China has been on Trump’s mind ever since he took office, according to a February 25 article by The Conversation. It points out that China also controls a large portion of the world’s gallium 16:03 reserves, which is key to many of America’s most modern defense technologies. Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest gallium producer, meaning Trump has been eyeing up his minerals deal for a long time because he knows Ukraine can replace the lost flow of Chinese gallium. Trump is also wary of Putin’s close relationship with China, especially given that China has become the dominant force in that twosome according to The Conversation. Beijing’s increasing influence needs to be countered, at least in Trump’s mind. The minerals deal with Ukraine is a way to take power away from China. If Ukraine can offer the minerals that China no longer provides to the U.S., Trump proves to Beijing that the world doesn’t need China as much as Beijing thinks it does. Zelenskyy is keen on critical minerals deals, whether with the U.S. or the EU, because those deals can reopen a valuable part of his country’s economy. And even when those deals don’t include security guarantees, as is the case with the U.S. deal, they’re still valuable. Each deal makes the West more reliant on Ukraine’s most valuable resources at a time when China is cutting the West off from those 17:02 resources. The U.S. and EU will want to hold on to that value, meaning they may provide Ukraine with security and greater access to its own minerals even if neither provides any guarantees. Perhaps Zelenskyy has conducted the biggest masterstroke in these deals. Security is implied, if not guaranteed. The deal Ukraine struck with the EU in 2021, and that is now being touted again, strengthens Ukraine’s ties with its European partners. As for Ukraine’s new deal with the U.S., it may just represent the olive branch Zelenskyy needs to lure America’s President back to his side after several weeks of Trump seeming to favor Putin. And best of all, striking those deals also means that Putin will face direct opposition from the U.S. and EU if he tries to claim the mineral resources in the territory that Russia currently occupies. But what do you think about Europe’s and America’s mineral deals with Ukraine? Will they have an impact on the Ukraine war? Has Zelenskyy used these deals to curry favor with the U.S. at a time when American support seemed shaky? Let us know what you think in the comments and remember to subscribe to the channel for the latest news about the Ukraine war.

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