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US ELECTION 2024 CHUCK TODD COMMENTARY Times Radio: Trump HQ grows ‘nervous’ as he fails replicate his 2016 wins PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRM3Ukg_fHI Peter Burgess COMMENTARY This aired on November 3rd, just 2 days before Election Day! How could it be that the media in general completely misread the upcoming election results. How much else does the media get wrong? Technology can be enormously helpful ... but excessive reliance on technology is a catastrophe waiting to happen. The problem with 'common sense' is that it is rare and not at all 'common'. The general information feeds that I was reading prior to the election in October had me expecting a Harris / Walz win ... perhaps by a landslide. It seemed that Trump was making mis-step after mis-step while the Harris / Walz campaign was doing everything right. I have not thought well of the media for upwards of 30 years ... but the 'media-fail' over the recent election is of an epic scale. But worse ... the election of Donald Trump has the potential for something really bad. Several weeks ago I downloaded a copy of the 900+ page policy document out out by the Heritage Foundation title 'Mandata for Leadership ... The Conservative Promise' which set out a reform agenda that will degrade most of what America (the United States of America) stands for and replace it with a completely different philosophy. My quick take on this policy framework is that it will take the USA backwards by at least a century for most of us while allowing Trump and his fellor travellers to accumulate wealth and perpetual power! Not a pretty prospect! I got the election wrong. So did much of the media and political experts. What comes next? Peter Burgess
Chuck Todd: Trump HQ grows ‘nervous’ as he fails replicate his 2016 wins Times Radio Nov 2, 2024 1.04M subscribers ... 198,956 views ... 5.9K likes “Right now it doesn’t feel like a guy trying to win, it feels like a guy trying to prove a point.” Chuck Todd says Trump’s campaign is growing nervous as he fails to replicate his 2016 discipline. Join this channel to get access to perks - / @listentotimesradio 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:00 right now it doesn't feel like a guy trying to win it feels like the guy trying to prove a point and I and and I it's too close of election I I think it's inless they see something we don't and I would say this the way Trump's been behaving to me I think he they're you can see they're nervous well here we are just a few days out from one of the most consequential presidential elections arguably in history so who better to chew it all over with than NBC news's Chief political analyst former moderator of Meet the Press and host of the brilliant Chuck toddcast it's Chuck Todd Chuck welcome back to times radio thank you James good to be back going to start with a question that you're probably Fed Up of I imagine pretty much all your colleagues friends family members are asking you with just a few days to go what is the state of the race so there's a my elevator pitch answer right because you're right this is a a fair a question from my mother to all sorts of people um the D says this is a 1:00 tie and there's nothing in the data that indicates anything else uh history says Advantage Trump meaning party out of power um the top two issues or issues that they believe Trump is better on the uh border security and the economy uh and sitting vice presidents uh running uh trying to replace unpopular sitting presidents don't win I mean it doesn't happen often but it doesn't win you know the last sitting vice president to win was George HW Bush and the outgoing president had an approval rating over 60 um but the last two weeks of this campaign uh Harris has closed better than than Trump so it's one of those things I think Harris has momentum here at the end I think Trump has sort of the mood music on his side and the data is predicting this sort of what I call an uncomfortable Crash Landing where it it's it's as close as you can be in everyone of these states and it really is on a knife's edge so there could be 2:04 polling error but I actually don't know if it's polling error I actually think it's simply there are the final voters are impossible to poll if you don't like either one of these candidates and you're make and you've decided you're going to vote think about your own life when you have to do something you don't look forward to do you do it early or do you do it at the last possible minute and I think that ultimately that's where I think we are I think we are sort of at Perfect political parody p a r i t i y it could turn into parody with a d but that's you know we'll see it's interesting you mention the polling I wanted to get your thoughts on something I've heard a few people say including I mean I was interviewing the other week the former UK cabinet minister one of our big political podcasters now in the UK Rory Stewart who who said that he thinks the polling companies may have got this wrong and that they have overcorrected from when they underestimated Trump's level of support 3:02 and he it's Fe he actually thinks it's quite that Harris may win this quite comfortably and people will be surprised do you think there's something in that so look I I know this Theory well and I've I know what these pollers have been doing um it is a different way that we you know do do we think we have a better uh our polling is better now than it was before we do we match it to the voter file we're very careful we don't do any more random digit digit dialing sampling anymore we don't do panel surveys I think panel surveys which a lot of the polling that you're seeing out there is done via panel and not to get too wonky but that is uh that is a basically people who want to be pulled so you already have a bias of essentially a selection bias if you will so I'm always very nervous about those panel surveys as well look there's two ways to look at polling error and I don't think you cannot assume it goes in One Direction so the fact of the matter is we missed a 4:02 piece there it there to me I I'm not even 100% convinced it's polling ER in 16 and 20 I do believe the last minute Trump voter waits till the last minute you know both things can be true a poll can there's certain voters you can't poll so a poll can both be accurate and not get the right not have the right breakdown because there's a chunk of Voters where the undecided vote doesn't split 5545 it splits 85 15 and again I go back to that last minute voter if it is a if we you know I believe the last undecided voter is an a Republican who doesn't like Trump well if you're a republican who doesn't like Trump you're probably a bit uncomfortable with a liberal Democrat as president and you're vacillated but I also believe that's an un a tough person to actually find in the poll now let's take this polling error issue um it all depends on how you how you corrected for Trump I can tell you how we corrected for Trump we Ed for Trump by 5:02 double-checking that making sure we that instead of waiting up our rural sample we made sure we got enough interviews to so that we weren't waiting as much if you if you are waiting too much your young voters and you wait too much your rural voters who are the two hardest to um to pull um demographics well the minute you start waiting up you take let's say you only got 80 young voters but you need it needs to be a 250 in your in your sample and you're waiting up that 80 well you can really create some exponential error as you waight that into the sample um there's also a a bit of concern it's not just about did we overcorrect on Trump the other concern are pollsters afraid of being wrong so they're hurting and they're making sure their their Top Line looks like a close race and I can tell you I have found a bunch of evidence that posters are doing this because the demographics won't make sense you'll be like okay you got a 4949 tie but you got 6:07 that tie because you have kamla Harris winning some Republican group and you have Donald Trump winning some democratic group like you know you're you're and that to me is always a clue that they played with the numbers because they they didn't like the original Topline that they got so I'm getting a little wonky here and and I I apologize but you know I think there's look if there's polling error and we've overcorrected for Trump then it will look more like it this campaign could look more like 2020 or 2012 where it's certainly close but decisive is what I would call that right less than five points to me is still a close race nationally but it was a you know Obama had a decisive victory over Romney and Biden had a decisive by the Electoral College standards victory over now what if we still missing the Trump vote okay well that's also a you know his voters particularly the ones new ones he's been courting working-class men of color 7:01 they're very hard to pull and if you know if the if if that's the case then he wins comfortably so you know I'm we are all on the lookout for polling eror um we'll find it pretty quickly in in the first Battleground state that we start getting data in which will be North Carolina it's interesting you said a moment ago Chuck that you think KLA Harris is is closing the better of the two candidates yeah I wonder what you make of the way the Trump campaign is closing I mean particularly that big rally the other day in Madison Square Gardens what was that about did he need to do that was it just about Donald Trump wants the glory of playing Madison Square Garden in his home City or or is there something else going on there I think that look this is him he's always wanted one and they wanted to do it um he's an event guy okay he doesn't you know he's not a sort of but I do find it ironic here I I have had this theory on this election that it's going to be 2016 in reverse 8:00 meaning in 2016 you had a whole bunch of Voters that just decided you know what I don't want her as president I'm not crazy about this guy but at least it's different let's try it um and I think we and that's why you know I I've always been a little I think there was some polling error but I think a lot of this was a whole bunch I think the the late decider just it almost uniformally went Trump um and remember how that campaign closed James Donald Trump spent his final days in Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton was spending money in Texas Arizona Florida she was looking for the 400 electoral vote Victory sound familiar with what you just described where's kamla Harris this week Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Donald Trump's done Madison Square Garden he's going to campaign in New Mexico he's going to have a rally in Virginia New Mexico and Virginia are competitive but not close there's a difference meaning 9:04 that they're single digit States if he's win if look just like with Hillary Clinton with Texas if she's winning Texas it's over sure if he's winning New Mexico Virginia sure but he's also winning everything else there is a part of me that thinks that the voter this time says I I've seen that presidency I haven't seen that one and it Harris could benit from the very same thing Trump benefited from in 16 when you had candidates who weren't comfortable with either candidate they're going to pick new over same and Trump's not new anymore and that and and and that's why he's been trying to close against Biden make you know really tie uh Harris to Biden if you're thinking about Joe Biden going into that polling Booth that's bad news for KLA Harris but if you're thinking about Donald Trump going into that voting booth then suddenly K Harris looks like change so I do question these put it this way if he loses this is how Republicans will criticize the Trump 10:04 campaign saying they had a terrible close he had a great close in 16 a terrific close in 16 um you know he was a bit more disciplined that's when he pulled back on the birtherism remember he was really trying to normalize himself dare I say he was trying to win right now it doesn't feel like a guy trying to win it feels like the guy trying to prove a point and I and and I it's too close of election I I think it's inless they see something we don't and I would say this the way Trump's been behaving to me I think he they're you can see they're nervous you said something really interesting Chuck when we last spoke I think it was back in May and of course a huge this was pre yeah that was a was a whole other nominee nominee ago and you kind of criticize the Biden campaign for focusing so much on the Democracy message because made I think a very valid point which is if you're concerned about that you're going to vote for Joe 11:03 Biden or you would have voted for Joe Biden anyway and when K Harris took over as as the nominee you saw a shift in message there was a more hopeful optimistic message about what she can change in your life but it feels like in recent weeks certainly in the early part of October it shifted back to democracy culminating in her telling Anderson Cooper last week that yes she thought Trump was a fascist what explains that change is that just desperation well now you have singled out what will be the great criticism of her if she loses and I've been hearing this criticism there's a lot of Democrats that think she would be better off spending her time in Detroit Milwaukee Philadelphia Atlanta Charlotte turning out voters that are all that if they show up are going to be her voters people of color Urban voters Etc um so there's been but their theory of the case is they don't win unless they get this Nikki Haley crossover voter and you're not going to get the Nicki Haley voter on 12:04 substance they don't like the Democratic economic policies um they want tougher border security so the the but the one thing where you see some agreement on is Trump's you know Trump really is sort of doesn't fully follow the Constitution this is troubling so it's their theory of the case ironic and I think this is worth noting how Harris is closing is much different than how every House and Senate Democrat is closing they're all closing on abortion rights actually Social Security you know protecting that you know worrying about abortion rights in some cases a defensive ad or two on the border they're not touching January 6 they're not touching the Democracy issue they're focused more on those three more substantive issues now I might argue a down ballot candidate is more likely to 13:03 do that anyway regardless of what the issue environment is but it is notable to me that all Democrats are closing in One Direction KLA Harris is closing in another um but I think it's I do think it's her path to Victory and I think that's what they've determined it's a it's a choice um you know she had 118 days this is the problem right you had a she couldn't do everything and this was the choice they made um we'll see I mean you're you're not alone there's a there is a ton of democratic skepticism among Democrats who are not involved in Harris's campaign about this closing decision but look she got 75,000 people to show up in uh for her closing speech uh on on the ellipse can't you know that's that's not chump chains I just wonder if there's anything Chuck that you think could happen in the final few days of this campaign and just to time stamp this we're recording this on the Thursday before polling it's Halloween it's the last day of October I don't 14:01 know I mean people speculate about whether George W bush may come out and say something or I don't know what if Taylor Swift did a big rally in Pennsylvania more could Taylor Swift do though she already's done a lot well I don't know I mean could she plunk her South outside a polling station in Philadelphia to drive turnout do you know what I mean is there anything that could happen that could materially change the race I think it's uh some candidate behavior is the only thing I think that could have an impact meaning you know whether it's you know a health scare uh a slip up saying something stupid or you know a physical impairment you know I I U I think Donald Trump's put it this way they're both exhausted but one is 20 is one is 80 and one is 60 Trump's looking a lot older in recent correct and I think when you're tired your filter is is weaker and you know we look I don't know if Trump could say anything that would shock anybody anymore right our shock Factor certainly isn't what it used to be with him but 15:02 that's you know if he had a a senior moment it could be devastating to him so but I think it's the only thing left like you were people have asked me what else could happen ultimately I just think candidate physical candidate Behavior right it could be a health thing it could be just a tired thing it could be just you know what but it's that's about the only thing left that might you know I I I can't imagine a a James Comey moment but it's possible that Madison Square Garden is the Comey moment for what it's worth that that became that that was suddenly cuz it it does feel like there was a momentum shift that that had that that had some legs Donald Trump never rarely apologizes he tried to distance himself for 48 hours on that one at left a mark this is comments about PU the comments about Puerto Rico it left a mark especially with a with the Donald Trump 16:03 who really has been having some success courting working class uh voters of all uh stripes and he really I mean that's another way we could see polling error the polls have indicated that Trump's going to do better with men of color than than anybody since George W bush on the Republican side but the polling also indicates that that K is going to do better with married white women than any democrat's ever done well what if those two voting groups go back to how they vote or what if only one of them goes back to how they normally vote but the other group sticks right that's all of a sudden how one of them gets a four-point lead and wins this in a in an electoral sweep what what in your view Chuck explains the grip that Donald Trump still has over the Republican party because I heard you say on one of your podcasts recently that if it was a generic Republican MH then the GOP would been a far better position on Tuesday they would probably win this election but because it's Trump CA Harris has a real shot and of course Trump okay he 17:03 won the Electoral College in 2016 but he lost the popular vote lost the midterms in 2018 lost in 2020 Trump back candidates did badly in 2022 his electoral record is not good and yet he has this grip over the Republican party still what explains that look he is the he is the he is the face of workingclass Republicans there is a divide our div in our politics right now is as much on education as it is on geography in some ways your education decides where you end up living a little bit um so so I think some there's a little bit of correlation here but the fact so if you've had a four-year college education you're a little more skeptical of trump um there's certainly plenty of college educated Republicans that are sticking by him but not in the numbers that non-oled educated voters stick by him so when you ask sort of about the grip he has the base the college 18:03 educated Republican is not a majority of the party they are sort of an important faction of the party but they're not a majority right it's Nikki Haley it's your your chainy wing it's it's that and what I to me what explains is that we have we have an education divide which then is exploited by our in broken information ecosystem right which is your your college educated voter might be more inclined to be skeptical of uh and and look for two or three sources as they see stuff maybe your workingclass voter who's got a million things going on in their lives right they're basically look they're they're you know they're they're working hard they're having and and they don't have time to fact check everything and and maybe they just have a couple of people they trust and then it gets algorithm and algorithm and all this I mean I really believe that that that you know there's a big chunk of Republicans that don't believe the same reality that 19:04 uh that that I think exists okay right they and so but we have a broken ecosystem Trump has exploited the broken ecosystem Elon Musk has accelerated this obviously by controlling a key cog in the ability to sort of weaponize the The Divide and the the information so I I look I think you can't I think some of this is is a is by education inside the Republican party but I think a more of it is on the broken information ecosystem that uh that essentially um intentionally misinforms um people who don't have time to double check everything and I say this I'm not I to me there's plenty of smart people who don't get a college education but again I go back they might be having two jobs they don't have time to to to look at all this stuff so they they may trust a couple of curators or 20:02 influencers that are intentionally misleading them because they have some other Griff that they're working on and that that's really what is I think upended the Republican party is it's really been the power Brokers are now um influencers the power Brokers are not actual elected officials anymore right it's your Tucker Carlson it's your Charlie Kirk it's your Joe rogans these are influencers and facts are just sort of you know things that that may or may not matter depending on what they're pushing just on Joe Rogan did KLA Harris make a mistake not going on Joe Rogan I'm trying to figure out what good was going to come of it um but I don't know I I Trump's head wouldn't it she it would it is it would have I think a three hour I think three hours is fraught with Peril I think anybody if you I wouldn't do a three-hour interview with you James for fear of what I might accidentally you know you get you sort of you know which it's smart of Rogan right if he can get 21:03 people to sit down for 3 hours you know you can break people down they'll stop their talking points after the first 45 minutes right yeah um it's what I think it was it would have been one of those interviews that there there was probably more to lose than to gain but um I think you want to get caught here's here's always a phrase that I'm I'm a fan of get caught trying and she wanted it on her term Ms and he didn't want to do that and you know he's he's uh I think he's smart enough to know he needs to get caught trying but I'm guessing he wasn't a you know because my guess is he wouldn't have wanted to be as tough on her as his own listeners would have wanted so he probably didn't want to have he probably didn't want to have it happen either to be frank that's really interesting um one of the questions you often ask your guests on the Chuck toast is if you could know the result of one state now which state would you go for is it Pennsylvania would that be your answer it has to be it's just too important to 22:07 the math okay to get to 270 look are there paths without it for both of them there are um and look I don't want to rule anything out right so she can lose both Pennsylvania and North Carolina um but if she somehow on Georgia Arizona and Nevada she'd get there right and you know you can't say it's something that can happen since Joe Biden just won all three of those States right um but realistically it's hard to imagine that the winner of this presidential campaign doesn't win Pennsylvania and I think that's probably like it it explained to me how somebody you know the last person to win Pennsylvania and lose the presidency was Jun Cary so that it's not like it's an unrealistic scenario um but it doesn't happen often but it's interesting isn't how how certain states have that status 23:00 I mean for years Florida and Ohio were considered Necessities if you going to win the White House now they're not I mean they're they're going to go Trump almost certainly so it is interesting how things shift I mean Ju Just on that point about Pennsylvania I don't think Pennsylvania is ever going to change though it's always sort of been there and there's just a geographic reason for it right the eastern part of Pennsylvania is part of the New York City feels like part of the New York City Corridor right the New York Washington Corridor yeah and Pittsburgh is the gateway to the Midwest and the Heartland and Pennsylvania is literally the crossroads between East Coast America and MidWest America I think it's inevitable it will always sort of be sitting in this 5248 you know world you know no more than that like those are your floors and ceilings like the worst day for either party is something like that and it just where it sits geographically right it's it's it's the gateway to the Midwest and at the same time uh its eastern part I mean there are this is going to be one of of the more fun thing there's a county in northeast Pennsylvania that 24:02 used to be Republican leaning that may go Blue this time and you know why it's a bunch of covid refugees people that lived and worked in New York City and decided they wanted to live in a more open space they moved to Pennsylvania it's it is commutable okay this is not an uncommit play but they don't have to commute every day right maybe they only have to go in two or three days a week well there's suddenly a whole bunch of new voters that weren't there in 2020 that now are registered voters in that county and uh there's a few places like that Michigan has some ex Chicago people that have done that which also could end up adding Democrats to the total so there's it it then again Florida's more Out Of Reach because of covid refugees moving down there that were Republican leaning um in some blue States so I do think we're going to see some slight shifts in our map that have been due to covid migration so given how important Pennsylvania is will there not be a postmortem if Harris loses that suggests she should have put Shapiro on the ticket I mean I know they 25:04 don't move many votes but if it comes down to a few thousands tens of thousands it's the old should algor of chosen Bob Graham in Florida I was just GNA say we I went through this in 2000 you're like was Bob Graham worth 538 votes Florida yes he may not have been worth 5,000 votes turns out you didn't need 5,000 you just needed 600 right of course there will be you know uh and I think more than that I think Shapiro would have been a better virtue signal to the middle um but we're talking I you know I do think it's on the margins and look a lot of bad running mates H have gotten elected vice president because people don't care about the running mate right I don't think Vance has been helpful to Trump at all but Trump could still win despite him and I and you know I think wall I'll give this I think walls served a purpose early in a he was a good he made a good 26:01 first impression he's likable right he said people like him um but he didn't bring a constituency and that was a concern like I I it just you know it it's not exactly he's not exactly a conservative Democrat right he's really more of a mainstream liberal Democrat which you know that is what it is um so you know we'll see and and and but look he's not a drag and it's possible Vance has caused Trump even more problems with women just finally chuck if it is as close as everyone seems to think it looks unlikely that we'll have a definitive result on Election night or even for the few days after so so give me maybe a state or even a county that you will be looking at in those early returns that will give you an indication of where the race is heading well look I have a simpler way to do it because North Carolina and Pennsylvania we should get the we should know the results of both states by Sunrise 27:05 Wednesday morning on the East Coast here um the United States and you know we we just think Pennsylvania changed their should be counting their mailing ballots faster and all this stuff we expect we think they'll be at 95 to 98% of votes counted sometime between 3: and 6:00 a.m. North Carolina has always traditionally counted their vote pretty efficiently and pretty quickly so if the same candidate wins both States while we may not officially have somebody over 270 you'll have an idea so that that to me that's one way I mean I'm going to learn a lot in North Carolina there's a couple of early house races that I'm looking at as sort of canaries in the coal mine there's one in Virginia which is an early State early counting state there's a congressional race there that is a a republican leaning District but if Democrats have flipped it that tells you something about Democratic turnout in general and about Republican turnout in general 28:00 right type of thing so that that is a canary in the coal mine but just to keep you if we don't know if if those two states are split right one candidate wins one one then we're then everything's going to get litigated ballot by ballot and I'll give you a scenario that I talked about in my last podcast which I I'm guessing you already know which is if Harris wins North Carolina and Trump wins Pennsylvania the entire political world is going to be litigating every ballot we count in the state of Nevada because Nevada is going to be she'll be three electoral votes short if assuming she wins Wisconsin and Michigan she's going to you know she's going to need either Arizona or Nevada there's a lot of skepticism that Arizona is going to come in for her um Trump has looked stronger there um Nevada is I think Nevada is going to be the closest state I think it's going to be in raw vote mean percentag is another since it's a small state it could but I think we're talking less than 5,000 votes like I think it's going to be that now 5,000 votes would actually be a landslide compared to the Florida recount back in 2537 but that is that is a scenario that 29:05 keeps us in for a week at a minimum and frankly where people are litigating because you know what Nevada allows your ballots to come in later and if it's rejected if your ballot gets rejected you actually get a couple of days to fix it maybe you didn't put your name on it right maybe you didn't sign it and got rejected can you imagine the fights between the lawyers going no that ballot isn't you know you can't go get that ballot fixed and no we're going to call the voter does get 24 hours to come in and claim that you know it will be a nightmare now of course the other nightmare scenario is what if what if we have three states that are decided by 5,000 votes or less right all at the same time right the nightmare scenario is not one state that's holding us up but three that's the nightmare well on that cheery note on Halloween Chuck this has been an absolute pleasing you out right my friend thank you so much for joining us again on Sims radio all righty good to talk with you James

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