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GEOPOLITICS RUSSIA, CHINA, BELARUS & NORTH KOREA PPR GLOBAL: China sternly WARNS Russia & North Korea: ''GET OUT!'' PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrJ3OM_6yIg Peter Burgess COMMENTARY The BRICS alliance has a lot of moving parts ... maybe too many for perfect harmony. Russia is used to 'getting its way', but that is not happening in 2024 as it did 25 years back! It is not entirely clear which country is now 'setting the agenda' for BRICS. Rather it looks like the individual members of the alliance are setting their own priorities to suit their own goals. It is not even clear that BRICS will survive as a meaningful alliance! Certainly ... at this meeting of the BRICS' leaders, Putin did not dominate the show with his agenda! Peter Burgess
China sternly WARNS Russia & North Korea: ''GET OUT!'' PPR GLOBAL Oct 29, 2024 558K subscribers The 2024 BRICS Summit ended in disappointment for Putin. At the summit, Putin and Kim Jong's joint move was met with surprising reactions from their allies. China and Belarus, two of Putin's closest allies, may have turned their backs on the Kremlin leader after North Korea sent troops to Ukraine. But why have China and Belarus taken such a hard line against Russia over North Korea's deployment of troops in Ukraine? Transcript 0:00 Russian leader Vladimir Putin's move to deploy North Korean troops to war camps and the front line is about to turn into a nightmare the 2024 bricks Summit ended in disappointment for Putin at the summit there was a surprising reaction from allies to the Joint move by Putin and Kim Jong withdraw North Korean troops from Ukraine immediately this was not said by us Ukraine or South Korea it was said by China's leader Xi Jinping and belarus's leader lucenko close friends and allies of Putin and Kim Jong China and bellarus two of Putin's closest allies may have turned their backs on the Kremlin leader after North Korea sent troops to Ukraine but why did China and bellarus take such a hard stance against Russia over North Korea's deployment of troops in Ukraine at The Brick Summit where all these moments took place we will discover what happened behind the scenes in the 1:00 shadowy alliance as we all know North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had sent nearly 11,000 troops including 1,500 Special Forces Personnel to the Ukrainian front lines four Landing ships and three frigates of the Russian Pacific Fleet have completed the first transfer of about 1,500 North Korean Special Forces from areas near Chong Jin hamong and Madan to vladas St Russia this was the first time since 1990 that a Russian naval fleet had entered North Korean Waters it was later claimed that other North Korean soldiers were gradually making their way to Russia while this critical news was first shared by South Korean intelligence Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not deny the presence of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine on the front lines at the bricks Summit asked by a reporter about satellite images showing the movements of North 2:01 Korean troops Putin said images are a serious thing if there are images then they reflect something Putin's plan was probably to get support from pongyang to prevent the military operation in cour and escalate the invasion of Ukraine after all a certain number of North Korean troops had already been deployed to the ksk region but Putin miscalculated again it turned out that the Russian leaders plans did not work out at The Brick Summit and even went arai as we mentioned one of the First Reactions came from China Belarus like China announced that it does not support the presence of North Korean troops on Ukrainian territory on behalf of Russia Chinese officials have told the press that Beijing is demanding a deescalation of the Ukrainian War because of concerns that North Korean troops could be deployed to Ukraine in a few days China has made made it clear that it opposes 3:01 the presence of North Korean troops on the Ukrainian fronts and wants their immediate withdrawal this reaction from China was seen as a warning to Pyongyang given its new involvement in the European conflict and its aggressive stance towards its Southern neighbor threatening to embroil its indopacific Ally in two geopolitical crises the Chinese Embassy in the US stated that the Beijing government's position on the Ukraine crisis is consistent and clear and that it hopes all parties will promote deescalation of the situation and strive for a political solution these statements were seen as beijing's attempt to portray itself as a neutral actor in the situation at the same time Beijing was also trying to reign in Pyongyang in the past China had tried to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia but was accused of supplying Putin with weapons used in the conflict and repeatedly refused to condemn The 4:02 Invasion therefore China's criticism of North Korea's move to send troops to fight on Russian soil in Ukraine came as a shock it was also discussed again at the bricks Summit a clear warning from China directly to North Korea and indirectly to Russia but are there really North Korean troops on the front line the Kiev post's intelligence sources told the Kiev post that a missile strike strike on Russian occupied territory near detet on October 3rd killed more than 20 soldiers including six North Korean officers who had come to meet their Russian counterparts three other North Korean soldiers were wounded according to reports on Russian social media prior to the missile attack the Russians were showing North Korean officials offensive actions and Personnel training for defense the main intelligence directorate of Ukraine Hur reported last 5:02 year that a limited number of North Korean troops including engineering troops had arrived in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory indicating active cooperation between Russia and North Korea there are also unconfirmed reports that match the Ukrainian intelligence narrative on October 15th shortly after reports of the desertion of 18 North Korean soldiers a Chinese mercenary fighting in the Russian Army claimed that eight North Korean officers were killed on the first day of their deployment in Ukraine using the name Dian Yuan Chinese for prison guard on social media the mercenary said that despite the Prejudice that Pyongyang soldiers are brutal eight officers were killed in just one day after joining the war and then presumably laughed at the seemingly poor performance of North Korean soldiers there are North Korean soldiers here damn they left right after 6:02 they entered the war and people say they are savages they just went in and left just one day eight people they were even officers Dian Yuan said but the Ukrainian intelligence report the KV posts analysis and the Chinese mercenaries account have commonalities the October 3rd liquidation of six North Korean officers in denet and the wounding of three of them and the mercenaries liquidation of eight North Korean soldiers May overlap to a large extent it may also not be a coincidence that the Chinese mercenary waited for the Ukrainian intelligence to make this broadcast this has become a matter of concern for many countries whether they are allies of Russia or not we will now consider China's warnings to North Korea and Russia and South Korea's willingness to cooperate with China on this issue 7:00 and then shed some light on Leno's attitude towards the presence of North Koreans in the Russian army China's warning to North Korea is probably meant to prevent the west from entertaining the idea of sending more Military Support or even possible troops to South Korea China is now trying to consolidate its role as a soft and balancing power South Korea the US and Japan all recognize China's importance and weight in this regard so Soul said over the weekend that South Korea the US and Japan hope that China will play a constructive role in countering the recent military cooperation between Russia and North Korea according to yon Hop news agency an official from Soul's presidential office said soul and its allies expect China to play a positive role to address Soul's concerns over the deepening military rishma between Moscow and Pyongyang we can assume that China may be uncomfortable with the North's 8:00 deployment which is the most serious level of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow the agency quoted the unnamed official as saying referring to reports that North Korea has sent troops to fight alongside Russia in the Ukraine war North Korea said on Friday that the deployment of its troops to Russia would be an accordance with international law in its first response to soul and Washington's allegation that Pyongyang had sent about 3,000 troops to support Moscow however Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported that North Korean troops were deployed to the Russian border region of ksk where Ukraine is under attack as with the bricks Summit Beijing officials shared soft assessments of the situation between the North and the South after the summit regarding the situation on the Korean Peninsula the Beijing government demanded that the relevant 9:00 parties directly confront the essence of the Korean Peninsula issue and play a constructive role to reduce tensions promote dialogue and maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula North Korea has recently begun strengthening its positions near the demilitarized zone deployed troops near the border and threatened soul with military retaliation following reports that a South Korean drone had entered its airspace these actions and recently confirmed reports that Pyongyang has sent troops to Russia create a difficult Balancing Act for China One of the country's few Global allies but after China's recent warnings to North Korea pongyang is likely to be more cautious in its plans for South Korea so why should North Korea heed China's warning China's economic aid to North Korea accounts for about half of all Chinese foreign Aid Beijing provides Aid 10:01 directly to pongyang allowing siin ping to bypass the United Nations Kim Jong-un cannot refuse such economic resources from Xi Jinping therefore China's warning to North Korea both at The Brick Summit and afterwards for sending troops to fight on behalf of Russia in Ukraine will ring harshly in Kim jong's ears there is a Russian Dimension to this situation Jonathan Ward a a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute a washington-based think tank predicts that Russia's war in Ukraine will fail without the direct economic and Industrial support of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist party this is also the opinion of War analysts and Military experts China is therefore capable of indirectly warning Russia against such a deep alliance with North Korea Russia like North Korea has to listen to China which it sees as its big brother so 11:02 Putin will either end up listening to Kim jong's call for war or he will heed xiin Ping's warning and put an end to this madness otherwise things are not looking good for the Russian leader in addition to China there is also bellarus which is waiting in line to react to this issue Belarusian President Alexander lucenko one of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin's closest allies has said that the deployment of any foreign force in bricks in the Ukrainian conflict will inevitably lead to an escalation with these comments lucenko explicitly rejected the idea that North Korea has sent troops to be deployed alongside Russian forces in the ongoing war in Ukraine the Belarusian leader also set on the sidelines of the summit of the brics group of Nations that Putin would never try to persuade another country to involve its military in 12:02 Russia's special operation in Ukraine the deployment of foreign troops would be a step towards escalation of the conflict if the Armed Forces of any country even bellarus were on the line of contact Alexander lucenko added according to lucenko this would probably prompt Ukraine's allies to point to foreign intervention for the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine the Bellar leaders seemed quite worried about this Alexander lucenko even sent a second shock wave to the agenda when he shared assessments that Russian nuclear weapons in bellarus could not be used without his permission which he sees as the next step by Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin in separate interviews with the BBC and Russian State television lucenko confirmed that any use of Russian nuclear weapons currently deployed in bellarus would require his personal approval these critical statements are 13:02 seen as threats by lucenko to dissuade Putin from his idea of having North Korean troops fight on Ukrainian soil or Alexander lucenko is willing to play all the Trump cards to stop Vladimir Putin as for why the belarian leader like China is warning Russia about this lucenko probably doesn't want to get further under the radar of the west but on the other hand he also doesn't want to lose a very important and Powerful Ally like Putin lcas shenk's only concern is the presidential elections in 2025 the president who has been in power since 1994 has announced that he will run again in the presidential elections in January if called upon according to the Constitution presidential elections in bellarus are scheduled for January 26th 2025 the president is directly elected for a 5year term Mass protests erupted 14:02 following the disputed outcome of the 2020 presidential elections in which current president Alexander lucashenko claimed Victory opposition candidates fatana tanusa later claimed to have received 60% to 70% of the vote and asked the International Community to recognize her as the winner of the election lucenko stated that if a new constitution is a adopted on August 17th 2020 the next presidential election could be held no earlier than 2025 the belarian leader also suggested at the time that he would resign if a new constitution was adopted now it seems that Vladimir Putin's support is essential for Alexander lucenko to come back to Power in the elections scheduled for January that is why lucenko stance against Putin's move to have North Korean troops on Ukrainian soil is 15:01 unlikely to last if the belarian leader takes all the risks and pursues such a threatening strategy against Putin rumors about China's connection with lucenko over the elections May emerge it is obvious that Alexander lucenko is not wanted by the people in Belarus again if Belarusian leader Alexander lucenko finds a way to break with Russian President Vladimir Putin and win the next elections which is thought to be very difficult without China's help then we can say that a very critical process awaits the country Russia provides bellarus with considerable economic subsidies and Aid since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 Belarus has become more dependent on Russia than at any point since Independence the country relies heavily on economic and financial support from Moscow provided in exchange for a commitment to further econ iomic integration with Russia the main areas 16:02 of dependence include subsidized energy Imports other bilateral trade and transit for bellian exports and incoming Capital inflows often on preferential terms traditionally high oil and gas subsidies from Russia have been on a downward Trend since 2007 but following the fraudulent elections in 2020 bellarus faced numerous sanctions from Western countries leaving Russia as the only partner in the region this increased the kremlin's bargaining power and reduced belarus's ability to resist deeper integration since 2022 support for Russia's war in Ukraine has further increased belarus's economic and financial dependence as the country lost its second largest export Market Ukraine and faced additional sanctions from Western countries Moscow has again increased energy subsidies and offered 17:00 Belarus the opportunity to benefit from access to a vast market now left open by its former international trading partners further eroding the country's remaining economic independence on the other hand bellarus has traditionally imported subsidized oil and gas exclusively from Russia Russian energy subsidies played an important role in belarus's economic growth in the early 21st century enabling the country to save on average about usd5 billion a year or 15% of GDP on energy Imports between 2000 and 2008 gas Imports are vital as bellarus generates 90% of its electricity and heat from gas each increase in gas prices has significantly affected the competitiveness of belarus's state-owned Enterprises emphasizing the country's heavy dependence moreover since 2011 Russia 18:01 controls belarus's entire gas infrastructure through gazprom which also owns Gas storage facilities since 2007 energy subsidies have decreased and started to slow down directly affecting the economy finally in 2020 bellarus was paying more for gas than the average European buyer even though oil was 15% below market value in 2021 the country's domestic oil production accounted for only 10% of its consumption while the remaining 90% was imported from Russia sometimes during periods of political tension with Moscow Belarus imported oil at much higher prices than other countries following Russia's invasion of Ukraine the price gap between gazprom's average export prices in Europe and Belarus reached record levels resulting in unprecedented Savings of over USD 10 billion in in 2022 and nearly USD 8 billion in 2023 19:04 Belarus also benefited from a 30% discount on Russian oil compared to market prices saving up to USD 2.4 billion in 2022 and USD 1.5 billion in 2023 since April 2023 Russia has compensated bellarus USD 430 million under a tax maneuver agreement which was expected to increase to USD 640 million in 201 24 despite these savings still low Russian domestic prices create unequal conditions for bellerian companies on the common market alongside these conditions with Russia's support bellarus has Diversified its energy mix and built a nuclear power plant borrowing use $5.4 billion from a us10 billion intergovernmental credit line the first reactor was connected to the Grid on November 20th and the second on May 20 3 the two reactors are expected 20:01 to generate 18 billion kyod water per year meeting 40% of belarus's electricity needs and saving about 4.5 billion cubic met of natural gas per year however the country remains dependent on Moscow because it uses Russian technology its fuel is supplied by Russia and the annual servicing cost of the debt is estimated at U 535 million belarus's growing economic dependence on Russia is expected to deepen further if the war continues due to ongoing sanctions and limited access to Alternative markets and Financial Resources this growing dependence poses serious risks to belarus's sovereignty and economic stability and makes it even more vulnerable to any political and economic changes in Russia given all this Belarusian leader Alexander Lucas 21:01 shenk's decision to follow China's policies and oppose North Korean troops fighting on Russia's behalf in the war in Ukraine could potentially erase his deep ties with Putin in an instant China standing behind the scenes could use this situation to its advantage in the event of a rupture between bellarus and Russia the Chinese Wing could take lenk's side in this case Putin would feel much more isolated and could only walk this path with Kim Jong but this decision could spell the end of Putin's Rule and the end of his occupation strategy in Ukraine in short the situation on the China bellarus and Russia North Korea sides is fragile and critical a single move could reshape the global Asia east Europe Alliance thank you for following us

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