Date: 2025-07-03 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027384
SWEDEN
STRATEGIC DEFENSE
The Military Show: Sweden Had Enough of Russia - GET OUT OF UKRAINE!
STRATEGIC DEFENSE
The Military Show: Sweden Had Enough of Russia - GET OUT OF UKRAINE!
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvb_6HsJWQ4
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
Transcript
- 0:00
- In a stunning move that has left Moscow reeling,
- Sweden has delivered a crippling blow to Russian forces, shifting the tides of the
- conflict in Ukraine. This unprecedented aid package from Sweden, NATO's newest member,
- marks a historic departure from its traditional stance of neutrality.
- What secret strategies and cutting-edge technologies has Sweden unveiled to
- support Ukraine? How will this affect the balance of power in the region?
- Let’s delve into the dramatic developments that have sent shockwaves through the Kremlin and
- bolstered Ukraine’s fight for freedom. On May 29th, Sweden announced its 16th
- aid package to Ukraine. Tellingly, this was primarily a military, rather than an economic
- or humanitarian, aid package. It is designed to create Russian casualties, which would have been
- unthinkable for Sweden a few years ago. Such aid is a departure from Sweden’s
- traditional foreign policy. Until Putin decided to invade Ukraine, Stockholm observed a policy
- of neutrality dating back to the Napoleonic Wars. The last time Sweden entered a conflict
- 1:01
- was in the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814. The Swedish public widely supported their
- country’s neutrality, and it was maintained during both World Wars. As late as 2012,
- only 17% of Swedes expressed support for joining NATO. By 2021, the number increased to 46%.
- But Sweden was always wary of the threat from Russia.
- The two countries fought the long and bitter Great Northern War in the early 18th century
- over influence in the Baltic Sea. Sweden lost the conflict and has been on guard against Russia ever
- since. As early as 1904, Sweden was patrolling the Baltic with submarines to protect its coastline.
- That mission has given it more underwater experience in the Baltic than any other nation.
- The Gripen fighter was designed specifically to counter the threat from Russia. Even its
- radar system is designed to let it look toward Russian territory without flying in its direction.
- Fear of potential Russian aggression has entered Swedish cultural consciousness.
- Some of the older locals on Gotland Island, one of the most important locations in the Baltic
- 2:01
- and the likeliest place in Sweden that Russia would attack, reported in 2015 that they would
- hear stories from their parents warning them that if they failed to finish their dinners,
- the Russians would get them. Back then, people on the island were divided over
- whether the Swedish military should increase its presence there. No such divisions exist today.
- Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine reawakened historical nightmares
- among the Swedish public and policymakers in Stockholm. Sweden announced its intention to
- join NATO a few months later and quickly became a partner to help Ukraine fend off the invasion.
- Like Germany, Sweden reversed its historical aversion to providing lethal military aid. It
- began with providing weapons like anti-material weapons, air defenses, and light vehicles. The
- investments increased, and Sweden demonstrated early on that it was willing to go far in its
- proportional investment in money and in weaponry. On the first anniversary of the war, Sweden said
- it would donate ten Leopard 2A5 tanks to Ukraine. Sweden’s latest aid package is worth $1.23
- 3:00
- billion. To put that into perspective, Sweden’s total military spending in 2023 was $8.75 billion.
- Meanwhile, Sweden’s total aid to Ukraine amounts to a little over $4 billion over the course of
- 16 packages since the invasion started. Such a proportionally large expenditure demonstrates
- Stockholm’s threat perception. Russia’s recent successes have required Stockholm to step up its
- spending even more. The pace of Sweden’s separate aid packages also reflects Stockholm’s wariness,
- as several have been passed in the last few months – and they have significantly increased in size.
- For example, in late February, Sweden announced a $682 million aid package, which was then its
- largest. The package included 10 CB 90 combat boats, 20 group boats, underwater weapons,
- $192 million worth of badly-needed artillery shells, RBS 70 man-portable air defense systems,
- anti-tank missiles, Carl Gustaf grenade launchers, hand grenades, and medical supplies.
- Earlier in May, Sweden passed aid to help Ukraine secure its energy supply,
- 4:00
- since this sector has been a particular target of Russian missiles and drones. This aid will
- be spent on equipment like generators, transformers, and solar cells. It will
- also include necessary spare parts like electrical switches, cables, pumps, and pipes.
- The May 29th aid package was about twice the size of the February package. It does not
- include donations of the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet. Although Ukraine has expressed interest in
- this platform in the past and does not rule it out in the future, Kyiv wants to focus on
- implementing its F-16 program. Stockholm says that it is “still working on the possibility”
- of contributing the Gripen system later, but for now it is too much of an ask for Ukraine to divide
- itself between two new fighter jet programs. Though it won’t donate fighter aircraft,
- the rest of the aid is substantial. Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ebba Busch,
- said that the package “consists of equipment that is at the top of Ukraine’s priority list.”
- Maybe the most important contribution for the immediate term is in the form of additional 155mm
- artillery shells. Sweden didn’t specify how many shells will be provided, but the new ammunition
- 5:02
- will help to swell Ukraine’s supply to well over two million rounds. This will ensure enough
- ammunition to keep Ukraine in the fight into 2025. The Swedes will also be donating RB 99-AMRAAM
- missiles, the equivalent of the AIM-120. Sweden’s Ministry of Defense says that
- these missiles will be repurposed specifically to serve in ground-based anti-aircraft systems.
- Presumably they will be supplied for Ukraine’s NASAMS units. This is important, because Russia
- took to using its aviation to more effectively support its ground forces after Avdiivka fell,
- and the proper air support enabled Russian forces to make more rapid advances to the west. Ukraine
- used its NASAMS and other air defense units to shoot down some of the Russian planes. More
- ammunition will check Russian aviation and force Moscow to be more cautious with its air power.
- Sweden will also be sending its entire fleet of PBV 302 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
- These have been retired from Swedish service, as the newer Combat Vehicle 90 replaced the PBV 302
- in 2014. Stockholm thought it better to donate its older vehicles rather than keep them in
- 6:04
- storage. Sweden’s official announcement of the aid mentioned that the Ukrainian army
- was organizing several new brigades and needed armored vehicles for their infantry companies,
- a demand the PBV 302 will help to satisfy. The PBV 302 is armed with a 20mm cannon
- mounted on a turret to the vehicle’s right side. The cannon is fed with drum magazines which can
- each hold 30 rounds. A 7.62mm machine gun can be used as a secondary weapon.
- The PBV 302 has armor that can withstand 20mm rounds and weighs 12.3 tons. It comes
- with a crew of three – the driver, who also serves as a mechanic, the gunner,
- and the commander. The vehicle can carry up to eight soldiers in its landing compartment.
- Over 600 of these vehicles were produced between 1966 and 2014, but that is not the amount Ukraine
- will receive. Much of the fleet was decommissioned from 2005 onward. By 2018, there were at least 180
- still in service in various degrees of readiness. These vehicles are likely the ones Sweden will
- now hand over to Ukraine. The vehicles are all set to be be repaired and modernized to at least
- 7:03
- some extent before the transfer. The remaining spare parts and maintenance equipment for these
- vehicles will be donated as part of the package, as will the 20mm shells for the onboard cannons.
- The PBV 302 will not be the only land vehicles Sweden donates as part of its latest package.
- The aid also includes surplus fuel transport vehicles in use by the Swedish Armed Forces.
- Previously donated Swedish material will continue to get upkeep through this aid package.
- Stockholm also intends to help Kyiv with its command and control through donations of terminals
- with subscriptions for satellite communications. To help with training and military doctrine,
- the Swedish Defense Research Agency will assist the Ukrainian armed forces in creating
- their own defense research institute. There are also a number of financial
- support provisions in the package. Most importantly, Sweden will make investments
- to ensure that Ukraine can get aid on a large scale on a rapid basis.
- Sweden will permit all of the weapons provided by this package to be used against targets on Russian
- soil if that is what Ukraine finds proper. Stockholm also claims that it will be able
- 8:01
- to replenish all of the ammunition and equipment it is sending to Ukraine through new investments.
- The most notable contribution in the package came in the form of two SAAB ASCC 890 airborne
- early warning and control planes. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonsson said that
- these aircraft would have the most significant impact on Ukraine’s air defense network. These
- planes will better allow Ukraine to identify and track incoming missiles and drones. They
- can also spot targets of opportunity for offensive operations. Training Ukrainian
- air force personnel to fly these planes is also part of the Swedish aid package.
- Stockholm’s decision to donate these aircraft was a significant step beyond the monetary cost. These
- were the only two AWACS aircraft in Sweden’s fleet. The Swedes admitted that the donation
- of these planes and many other provisions in the package meant a temporary vulnerability
- in their territorial defense. However, they decided to take what Prime Minister
- Ulf Kristersson called a “calculated risk.” Perhaps the words of his Danish Counterpart,
- Mette Frederiksen came to mind. Early in 2024, she pointed out that it was better
- 9:01
- for European countries to sacrifice their own arsenals temporarily to ensure Russia’s
- defeat far from their own homelands, rather than having to potentially use those weapons against
- an emboldened Putin far closer to home. Sweden plans to make up for the shortage
- of command and control planes by purchasing additional S 106 GlobalEye aircraft. This
- is SAAB’s newest AWACS aircraft and entered into service in 2020.
- Sweden also insists that it has plans in place to replenish all of the ammunition and
- other equipment it will lose once they arrive in Ukraine. Sweden intends to do this by increasing
- its defense spending. In September 2023, Stockholm announced its intention to increase its military
- budget by 28% for 2024. Additional increases will come in 2025 and 2026. These increases will put
- Sweden over the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense by appropriations.
- The budget increases will also likely make Sweden an enduring and reliable partner for
- Ukraine. Stockholm has indeed already announced that its partnership with Ukraine will be for the
- 10:00
- long haul. On May 23rd, Prime Minister Kristersson said that Sweden would be providing Ukraine with
- $7 billion in aid over the course of three years to repel the invasion. The package
- released to Ukraine the following week was only the first of multiple packages to come, and those
- packages will likely get bigger as time goes on. Thanks to the increases in Sweden’s military
- budget over the coming years, the country will be in position to deliver on this planned
- aid. The Ministry of Defense officially announced major planned investments in
- artillery systems and transport aircraft as part of the domestic defense spending
- program. These investments will put Sweden in a position to produce and deliver the weapons
- and ammunition Ukraine needs in the coming years. But how does Sweden’s recent and coming aid impact
- Ukraine’s ability to win the war of attrition? In December 2023, a report by the Estonian
- Ministry of Defense indicated that Ukraine could win the war in 2025 if it killed or maimed 100,000
- Russian troops in 2024. While Russia has the ability to call many more soldiers than that
- to the colors, these people need to be trained properly and then assigned to a cohesive unit if
- 11:01
- they are to be effective on the battlefield. The Estonians estimate that Russia can properly train
- 260,000 troops a year. This is sufficient to sustain an army of 420,000 in Ukraine.
- The Estonians advised Ukraine to prioritize creating so many Russian casualties that the
- demand for manpower would in turn send troops to the front with even less training. It would
- be a vicious cycle that Russia, even with its much greater amount of available manpower than Ukraine,
- would not be capable of meetig. The Estonians estimated that if
- Ukraine met the 100,000 benchmark, it could reduce Russian training capacity
- to 80,000 properly-trained troops per year. The rest would be ineffective cannon fodder.
- Sweden’s donation, especially with the new artillery shells, will help Ukraine
- to achieve this objective. Since Ukraine killed or maimed an average of 172,000 Russian troops
- in each of the first two years of the war, this seems like it will be achievable, particularly
- with help from countries like Sweden. There is another side to this equation,
- though. Ukraine must minimize its own losses, and that’s where Sweden’s recent aid package
- might make the most impact in the long run. Estonia’s Ministry of Defense said that it
- was just as important to level up the training Ukrainian troops received from their Western
- allies. Over 100,000 Ukrainian troops have been trained by their Western allies since the war
- 12:03
- began. The training is not equal, though. While most Western militaries have basic
- training courses that take ten weeks, and then several months for more specialized tasks like
- demolition or sniping, most of the Ukrainian troops in the war have had only five week
- courses. Ukrainian troops have also sometimes complained that they have received improper
- training from their NATO allies, which have been influenced too heavily by the War on Terror,
- rather than the high-intensity, state-based warfare that is taking place in Ukraine.
- This lack of adequate training has also ensured that Ukraine suffered about 200,000
- casualties in the first two years of the war. Of particular importance is better training for
- Ukraine’s officers. The Estonians recommended that foreign trainers should subject Ukrainian staff
- officers to a ten-week intensive training course. That way, Ukraine would be able to conduct proper
- operations at the brigade level. The current Ukrainian military can’t do this at the moment,
- which is why most operations in the war have taken place at the platoon or company level.
- This approach to warfare has helped to keep the Ukrainian armed forces nimble, but it has also
- 13:00
- had severe limitations. The Estonian Ministry of Defense pointed out these limitations:
- “The effective span of control of a brigade for offensive operations is therefore approximately
- two companies. The result is that the [Ukrainian military] plans and executes
- operations with a horizon of exploitation limited to approximately 1,200 meters.”
- This assessment may have been one of the more understated reasons why the offensive in
- Zaporizhzhia last year failed, even though Ukraine was able to penetrate two of Russia’s formidable
- defensive lines there. It could not translate those gains into a bigger breakthrough because
- of Russian mines and improved artillery fire, but also because it simply could not effectively come
- up with the necessary amount of troops to conduct operations at the level required. Russia was able
- to summon reinforcements with helicopter support that halted the momentum of Ukraine’s troops.
- Being able to bring more of them forward in a cohesive operation could have made the
- difference in generating the necessary momentum. Unfortunately for Kyiv, this was not available,
- but Sweden might be starting to change that. Sweden’s assistance in creating a defense research
- institute for Ukraine could help with training its staff officers, preventing casualties,
- 14:03
- and ensuring more comprehensive operations at the brigade level, although this will take time to see
- results. It is time Putin thinks he has on his side, but Sweden’s coming aid sends the message
- that he might be wrong. Ukraine is well on its way to killing or maiming 100,000 Russians this year,
- even though its forces have been slowly giving ground. The end of Ukraine’s shell hunger,
- partially with the ammunition Sweden is set to deliver, will help ensure Ukraine stays in the
- fight for the war of attrition, and can get past the contentious American presidential election.
- Sweden has emerged from over 200 years of military neutrality with surprising speed, and
- while there might be doubts about the feasibility of continuing to aid Ukraine in the United States,
- in Sweden there are none. Sweden doesn’t have the luxury of an ocean to separate it from its
- old enemy. For Stockholm, it is better to defeat Russia on foreign soil than to potentially need
- to defeat it on soil or in waters closer to home. Even proportionally large investments
- and temporary depletion of domestic arsenals have not dissuaded Sweden’s leaders from this opinion.
- 15:02
- Putin may hope that many of the countries that oppose him now will become exhausted with Ukraine
- over time and lose interest in continuing the effort. For deep historical reasons,
- Sweden is unlikely to be one of those countries, and that’s important because it
- might be proportionally small, but it has a strong defense industry. It will also look bad if Sweden,
- the newest member of NATO and also one of its smaller participants, were to continue
- supporting Ukraine at significant cost to itself while the others did nothing. Sweden’s support
- helps to ensure a broader European effort that can continue onward even if American aid falters.
- Sweden's historic decision to step up and deliver a significant blow to Russia through
- its aid package marks a new chapter in the conflict. As NATO's newest member,
- Sweden's support highlights the unwavering commitment of Ukraine's allies to ensure
- regional stability and security. What impact will Sweden's aid have on the war's dynamics?
- Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: Ukraine is not alone in its fight for freedom.
- What do you think of the support Sweden has lent to Ukraine throughout the war and how it will
- affect Kyiv’s ability to win the war of attrition? Don’t forget to let us know in the comments. Also
- make sure to hit the like button and subscribe for more military analysis from military experts!
- Now go check out Australia Just Dealt Russia a CRUSHING Blow! or click this other video instead!