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THE UKRAINE WAR THE KURSK OFFENSIVE Times Radio: Putin ‘absolutely rattled’ as 3000 troops cut off in Kursk \| Frontline PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf4KRruJJtU Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin ‘absolutely rattled’ as 3000 troops cut off in Kursk \| Frontline Times Radio Aug 25, 2024 931K subscribers ... 292,859 views Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security “If they were a really swept up, efficient, modern army, they would have had a mobile reserve that would have attacked already.” The Ukrainian invasion into Kursk is in its third week. The Russian army is ‘completely stretched to the limit’, and significant figures within Russia are finally beginning to speak out against the war, this week’s frontline experts tell #TimesRadio. Chemical weapons expert and former British Army Officer, Col. Hamish De Bretton-Gordon Editor-at-large, the National Post, Diane Marie Francis Former Moscow Correspondent, The Times, Michael Binyon Senior British Military Advisor to US Central Command, Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman Tutor of politics and international relations, University of Oxford, Dr. Samuel Ramani 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Chemical weapons expert and former British Army Officer, Col. Hamish De Bretton-Gordon Editor-at-large, the National Post, Diane Marie Francis Former Moscow Correspondent, The Times, Michael Binyon Senior British Military Advisor to US Central Command, Maj. Gen. Chip Chapman Tutor of politics and international relations, University of Oxford, Dr. Samuel Ramani Transcript 0:00 curse itself has you it's part of the Russian DNA I mean you've mentioned that the first um the first time Russia has been invaded since the second world war but you know the Battle of curse which was you know the graveyard for hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers and is so key to the Russian psyche because it's it was their big sort of defeat of the Nazi Germany um to now see it you know almost upturn people can't believe it and you know 200,000 refugees who've been kicked out of their homes and they've been fed on this Dart of Putin being This brilliant military strategist now people are realize that is just not the case the Russian army is completely stretched uh they although they've got 600,000 troops or so in Ukraine along a very long border they are stretched their Elite their their professional Army was destroyed in the first year of this war so exstensively now they have recruits who are poorly trained poorly 1:02 motivated and badly equipped so the ability to do something like the ukrainians have done in curse is Way Beyond um the Russian Rank and file on the front line I mean we know that some of the elite forces are kept back in Russia I mean we know that Putin has has redeployed a lot of air defense assets to protect his palaces and and his um homes in SOI and all the rest of it now that's what happens in a dictatorship like Russia um so I think the the ability for the Russians to do anything you know if they were a really swept up efficient modern Army they would have had a mobile Reserve that would have attacked already I think that um they uh you know their strategic weapons their nuclear weapons are unusable so there is very little they can do and if you you know moving 5,000 groups on trains and Roads several hundred miles you know in the current 2:05 environment where basically they will be seen by Allied if not Ukraine intelligence they can be easily interdicted so I think people shouldn't be surprised that Russians can't act I think the other thing is that the chain of command as we call it is how military operations are commanded in in the British and American Military we rely on our commanders at the lowest level to make decisions and if they think they should go left flanking then that's up to them now that doesn't happen in the Russian military everything people are so worried about making mistakes because a mistake in the Russian military generally ends in your demise that decisions are left to the highest level so ultimately we now have Putin making minor tactical decisions you know for operations in in K and of course that takes time and I expect by the time he's made a decision the situation has changed again and they're 3:04 irrelevant so there the Russians have no flexibility and they have no agility so it's not only their troops are poorly trained but their decisionmaking uh uh cycle and system is slow so inflexible that um any decision that's made is is out of date way before it hits the front line so when you put all that together I think people understand why this is such an opportunity for Ukraine um to make a difference and it is the first time in two and a half years that anything more than a few meters of ground has been taken from either side and we're now talking about you know over 100,000 you know kilometers the sort of the size of Dorset from where I'm talking to you from yeah I mean it is the largest invasion of of Russian territory of course since since the Second World War I mean I wanted to get your thoughts heh on the impact on the Russian psyche and on morale of of both Russian troops but 4:00 also Russian civilians as you mentioned hundreds of thousands of people have been evacuated from the Kuro blast also belgrod as well it was interesting our colleague Matthew Campbell wrote in the Sunday Times over the weekend about his visit to a Detention Center in Sumi where Russian prisoners of War were being held and he wrote about how many of them told him that they were terrified of going there because they' had been fed this propaganda by the Russians about potentially being tortured by the Ukrainian guards in actual fact they've been given very good medical treatment they've been given clean clothing plenty of food some of the Ukrainian guards have gone out and with their own money bought them cigarettes and water and pastries and that of course will have quite a profound effect on those Russian troops similarly you've got a lot of Russian people dissatisfied with Vladimir Putin because they've been forced to leave their homes in KK and belgrod what do you think the long-term consequences of that will be well I I think it it is really interesting that you know until really the last few days last week or so you 5:01 know the horrors of the war have been kept from you know most Russians uh and certainly most of those in mosco and it's been a surprise to all of us that you know all those um political and news shows that we we see sort of edited and put out on social media all the time of how wonderful Putin is and how brilliant the Russian military are in the last week or so people are starting to question um you know what's gone wrong what what's happening and of course curse itself has you know it's part of the Russian DNA I mean you've mentioned that the first um the first time Russia has been invaded since the second world war but you know the Battle of curse which was you know the graveyard for hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers and it's so key to the Russian psyche because it's it was that big sort of defeat of the Nazi Germany um to now see it you know almost upturn people can't believe it and you know 200,000 refugees who've been kicked out of their homes and they've been fed on this Dart 6:03 of Putin being This brilliant military strategist now people are realized that is just not the case and um you there's 6:10 now talk of another mobilization um hither to the Russian army has been pretty much full of ethnic 6:17 Russians from the East and prisoners I mean there's some prisoners who've been in and out of jail so often and back to 6:24 the front I mean if it wasn't so flipping terrible it would be comical 6:30 um and and the thought now the last time they had a mobilization just after the start of the war you know hundreds of or 6:36 not tens of thousands of Russian men you know fled the country so that's why I think you know Russia is in a really 6:44 difficult position really you know as far as we're concerned a good position I think Putin is absolutely rattled and 6:51 and Clinging On you know and and you know people who don't really understand these things will be saying oh well 6:56 whoever replaces him is going be much worse well he might be but he's not going to have an army to threaten you 7:03 know NATO for the next 10 years or so so so why should we worry about that uh 7:09 which is why it's so important that absolutely you know we we stop rabbit punching around and and get in for the 7:16 killer blow which is why you know British Storm Shadow is so important it might only be one missile but it has a 7:23 strategic impact and um I hope that sakir St his team are getting to 7:29 understand that and have being briefed on that particular thing so yeah I think the Russian army is absolutely stretched 7:34 to the limits people in Russia are beginning to realize the the myth of the you know great leader is a complete myth 7:42 and realize that that you know that they are absolutely suffering and exactly as you say Russian soldiers are getting 7:50 looked after rather than the other way around where they're getting starved and there's some horrific pictures of Russia 7:56 of Ukrainian soldiers being beheaded by their captives and their heads put on Stakes now whether that might well be 8:01 propaganda but that is the feeling that one gets so anything we can do to 8:09 personify that and make sure that people in Russia understand it the better because ultimately everybody wants peace 8:15 as soon as possible Slim's great adage that uh you attack the enemy as quick as 8:21 you can as hard as you can when he's not expecting it and where it really hurts 8:28 is is exactly what they've done and the ability to maneuver you know if you can 8:33 maneuver quickly and effectively a much smaller force can defeat a much larger Force What Slim did in in back back in 8:41 Burma in 1943 now we know that um Russia vastly 8:46 in numbers uh overmatch is anything Ukraine's Got There 600,000 Russian troops uh in Ukraine but a lot of them 8:54 are very poorly trained and really can only do static operations in trenches um 9:00 the Russians have lost you know upwards of 4,000 tanks and thousands of other 9:07 armored vehicles and have not been able to train their Crews to effectively um 9:14 uh fight in any new ones they can produce so they're very static and it's 9:20 um you one can think of many analogies but if you can move around very quickly but others can't you can get 9:26 behind them which is exactly what's Ukraine's done and defeated them so I think the the uh strategic or combined 9:34 arms maneuver Warfare that a lot of people like me have been talking about and other people have been questioning 9:40 um it gave the advantage in the first world war it certainly gave the advantage in the second world war you think of um you know the Nazis Blitz 9:47 creig rals brick Blitz cre in in 1939 and 40 which completely devastated a 9:52 pretty static Allied defense but then you know when we we move forward to the 9:57 Allied Landings of 194 before and Beyond again it was the ability to move rapidly 10:04 um with with combined arms maneuver Warfare that won the game and the war in 10:10 Ukraine has been static for at least two years now so those people who can 10:15 maneuver and get behind your enemy and turn them will be successful and although this is you know a very small 10:23 incursion um actually you know the noise it's having in the Kremlin is is massive 10:30 because you know we are now I think 14 days into this uh incursion and the 10:35 Russians still haven't Counterattack from a military perspective I mean that that is the biggest crime you can 10:42 achieve you know every Doctrine handbook that we have the Americans have the 10:47 French have the Russians have the number one thing says if you lose any ground you Counterattack immediately the 10:54 Russians haven't been able to do that which is why I think it's so significant because actually I don't think they can 10:59 uh the ukrainians have blown a whole bunch of bridges and we'll come and talk to about Storm Shadow and and some of 11:05 the British strategic weapons in a minute um you know Ukraine has has 11:10 victory in its hands as it were in this area and it's absolutely key that we 11:16 don't snatch that Victory from them by some of the decisions that our leaders might be making today tomorrow and in 11:22 the next few weeks your latest substack piece is a fascinating look at the 11:27 perilous position Vladimir Putin currently finds himself in and what's really interesting is is the growing 11:33 descent inside Russia can you just expand a bit on that and what some of the people have been saying well this is 11:40 uh this is unique again uh I think it's because uh Ukraine has turned the tables 11:46 and it's now attacking Russia it's attacking Russia inside Russia it's 11:52 grabbed a chunk of Russia by occupying it it's got a nuclear plant it's got 11:57 prisoners of War it's being aggressive in return it's no longer content with being a punching bag and the further 12:05 they go in their incursion the it makes it possible for them to get over any restrictions on 12:12 using weapons uh in a long range because they're closer to the Target so they can 12:17 use the short range weapons that they're allowed to use and not use the long range that some of the Americans and 12:22 others have forbidden them for using by just moving their their missile launchers inside Russia closer to the 12:30 targets they're also swamping Moscow as well as Crimea with drain attacks and so 12:37 all of this has happened and this has happened in the last week and week or so 12:43 and this has turned psychologically turn the tables inside Russia and I think 12:49 internationally uh because uh you know the the ruble is cratering and there are 12:56 some very prominent Russians who are now speaking out against this war and 13:02 against Putin very unusually so there's a level of it's an enormous shift I 13:08 think inside Russia I mean what does that tell us about the weakness of Putin's position because famously he 13:14 does not tolerate descent does the fact that you've now got people coming out feeling more free to criticize the 13:20 regime in the Kremlin does that show that that maybe Putin's position is is severely undermined now well I I'm not 13:27 sure that they feel more free I think they're they're very upset and they can't stand it any longer and they're 13:34 they're they're doing it regardless so the latest one is another um militia 13:40 mercenary head uh and he's he's come out on video just as progan do we all 13:47 remember progan last year he came out criticizing Putin and the war asked for 13:52 an end of the war his mercenaries were in there fighting as are this guys and of course he staged very brief Mutiny 14:00 and was eventually assassinated despite that another guy has come forward 14:05 publicly very courageously and you know you got to remember that they have a 14:11 military in the government of Russia but there are hundreds of private militias 14:18 like progan had that are owned by oligarchs and so that they could get together and also and he's demanding 14:26 that the Army overthrow Putin he that's what saying overthrow him he's also 14:31 talking about the enormous social problems that this has caused for 14:37 Russian people I mean he's obviously setting himself up he wants a coup he wants a coup to T and then there's 14:44 another prominent oligarch who's also publicly come out very strongly against 14:49 the war and and also calling for it to end and he's probably backed by other 14:56 oligarchs so what you're seeing and then there's a third fellow who's a very important Inner Circle guy 15:01 who's been demoted because he's said a few things he hasn't come out in favor of overthrowing Putin but he's he's 15:09 created problems for Putin so Putin Still Remains The Dictator it still would require an army 15:16 Mutiny or a cah by the military to probably get rid of him unless he feels 15:22 forced or is forced physically to leave it's it's a big development I mean it's 15:29 I don't know to me it seems hard to imagine Putin voluntarily leaving power because he will think he is safest in 15:35 power surely well maybe he will find out that he isn't uh and and and you know he has 15:43 a children and a family and you know there there's a lot of very violent 15:48 people in Russia H and many of whom work for him and we've seen in the past that 15:53 you know if you're a dictator and you have any slippage you're surrounded by Ruthless People 'll get rid of you just 15:59 as you got rid of them if they were wrong wrong stepping so you know he's he can't be all that secure I think another 16:06 thing that's interesting psychologically is that the ukrainians about three weeks ago leaked the fact that they had uh 16:14 they had the ability to assassinate Putin at a big Naval parade in a certain city in Russia went to the Pentagon to 16:22 ask for permission because they needed to use American Weaponry we're refused 16:27 okay what that means is it was disappointing for many people I guess 16:32 but the point is that by leaking it they made it very clear to Mr Putin they'll 16:38 get him if they can and they and they were only prevented from getting that he's vulnerable he's not invincible so 16:46 psychologically you know his uh his strength is being sapped yeah and we know for instance in 16:53 recent weeks he's transferred air defenses from the front line in Ukraine to protect uh the Kremlin but also his 16:59 home in SOI as well so clearly he is feeling nervous there's understandably D 17:04 been a lot of focus on the humiliation of the incursion into K and the evacuation of people from belgrod I mean 17:10 you know this is the largest invasion of Russia since the second world war it is a humiliating moment but there hasn't 17:16 been so much discussion but you touched on this very interestingly in your in your substack piece about the falling value of the rubble how significant do 17:23 you think that is well I think that the Kursk uh invasion is now getting 17:29 disseminated to to uh to the world's World community that you know it looked 17:35 like just a little deal uh you know were they going to get a nuclear plant what does it mean what are they doing it for 17:41 they're you know they're they're much smaller army they can't possibly Outlast the Russians but now as it it 17:47 disseminates you see that the magical thing about it is that those people as you alluded to who were evacuated those 17:55 Russians 80 Villages and then 80 more probably belgaro you know Putin can control the 18:03 state media about around this incursion but he 18:08 can't stop the the people in belgrad and Kursk who are being evacuated and frightened 18:14 from calling their relatives and telling them what's going on and asking if they can have a spare bedroom to sleep in I 18:20 mean this is spreading through that Society very quickly and so is the fear and we're also seeing some State uh 18:29 media companies quoting or allowing people to speak out so I I you know I 18:35 I'm I'm optimistic that eventually uh this guy has done a war that's not 18:40 helped his country that's damaging his economy look the curse grade shows that 18:46 Ukraine still has game it also shows because the invasion in K was done with 18:53 German American and NATO tanks so he they've got backing the rans are coming 18:59 out the president Stein Meer said yesterday when there were rumors they may cut their military to Aid to Ukraine 19:06 no we are going to be and remain Ukraine's biggest Aid Giver for the 19:13 military so the tide is turning has it turned for the best for the for a long 19:19 time I don't know but and then there's of course the whole mess in Crimea yeah absolutely um I want to come back to the 19:26 response from Ukraine's Western allies in just a moment moment you highlight in your substack Diana piece by Mark 19:32 gallotti in the times recently in which he points out that Russia's military failure also upsets ordinary Russians 19:38 because it exposes the the regime's corruption and cronyism can you just expand a bit on that well apparently the 19:45 actual place where they breached the Border in kers the ukrainians breached 19:50 the border the uh the Russian government had spent allocated and contracted out 19:59 I think hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Dragon Teeth trenches Minefield 20:04 whatever to impede any possible Invasion and the ukrainians in 24 hours 20:12 and they had troops there in 24 hours the ukrainians with German and American and British tanks blew right through 20:21 that fortification and there was only one way that could have happened because they 20:27 probably didn't do the work they pocketed the money so turning to the Western response 20:33 do you think we will see what Ukraine is clearly calling for which is to be 20:39 allowed to use Western supplied weapons to strike military targets inside Russia 20:44 the West has loosened some of those restrictions over recent months but not to the extent that Ukraine wants there 20:50 is an argument that by invading KK is has shown once and for all that Putin's red lines are just a bluff but clearly 20:58 the West has always been cautious about potential escalation do you think we will see movement on that front well I 21:05 think that you know this this incursion also as you say uh made mockery of his 21:11 red lines also made mockery of his nuclear Armageddon 21:16 Bluffs uh they just went ahead uh made mockery of you know threatening Germany 21:22 and NATO they were part of it and so you know the king kind of has no 21:29 and and I think that's also very undermining for Putin I hope it is and I 21:35 think all of that um is is G given wi behind the back of the the NATO allies 21:44 and and that's why you see Germany steinm says yes we're we're going to be 21:50 we're going to remain the biggest you know contributor to military aid which they are to Aid of all kinds to Ukraine 21:57 going forward so the Germans are finally starting to get it and um then you see 22:03 some other movement that I talk about uh you see uh this cancellation of the big gas 22:10 pipeline by Mongolia to China I think that's kind of significant it happened just a few days after this so these 22:16 kinds of things point to a very Grim economic future for Russia and that's 22:23 why the rubble's collapsing it's probably also collapsing if Russian oligarchs and other players are getting 22:30 out of the rubble quickly because they face either a Cuda or continued 22:36 weakening of the of the country over the place at the moment I think he's really embarrassed he's confused he's hoping 22:41 that he can provide a definitive answer to this but there isn't an easy answer 22:47 uh the obvious solution for them for Russia would be to send a massive 22:52 military force to just drive the ukrainians out of the region straight away but he doesn't have the Manpower 22:58 quickly available uh they're sending conscripts which of course is causing a certain reaction inside Russia a very 23:05 unfavorable reaction and I think uh Putin is both Furious and embarrassed 23:10 furious with his own generals and Chiefs of Staff who haven't prepared for this 23:15 who haven't secured the borders and embarrassed because it does look as though Russian Russia is vulnerable 23:22 something that he's always said Russia is secure and firm and can you know look 23:28 up after its own defense and that clearly doesn't seem to be the message that's come out and in terms of the 23:33 choices he's now faced with I mean all of them carry political problems he can divert troops from the front line in the 23:39 east of Ukraine but clearly that's not ideal he can use conscripts but again that comes with political costs or he 23:46 could launch a fresh wave of mobilization but again politically very risky exactly you said exactly the three 23:52 things that are very difficult for him and those are really the only three options his favored response would be a 23:58 massive mive political Counterstrike sorry military Counter Strike to really 24:03 hit the ukrainians hard and push them straight out again I that's probably what the ukrainians themselves have been 24:08 expecting uh and they're probably ready to withdraw quickly if needed uh partly 24:14 to save their own Manpower and partly to secure their position as a force that 24:20 could strike back but are not there to occupy territory but to show the Russians that they're vulnerable uh but 24:25 the other one as you say conscripts well well they are already it seems sending some conscripts into the region uh and 24:33 that's caused a massive reaction the mothers of Russia who up to now have been surprisingly quiet have begun to 24:39 say look this is not what we were told our sons and our uh you know young ones 24:46 are not uh there to be on the front line and this is the front line uh well it is 24:51 now and the final thing which is to bang the Patriotic drum and get everyone G 24:57 together doesn't seem to be working because there's a lot of surprisingly open criticism in the in the Russian 25:04 media of this blunder uh the fact that Russia was unprepared they didn't see it 25:09 coming and that they haven't really had uh proper border reinforcements it's easy to be wise 25:15 after the event because if you told either of us three weeks ago oh by the way Ukraine's about to invade Russia we 25:21 probably would have you know discounted it but should the Russians in hindsight 25:26 have seen this coming should they have expected this could happen probably not because they felt the ukrainians were on 25:33 the back foot and to some extent they still are they just don't seem able to have the uh Manpower or the resources 25:40 and in particular the weapons to stop the steady thrust by Russia across this 25:47 big broad front uh all along eastern Ukraine and the ukrainians little by 25:53 little have been seeding ground have been giving up Villages have lost strong points and the Russians I think felt 25:58 that they've got Ukraine on the Run maybe not straight away and maybe there are some setbacks but in the end the 26:05 inevitable result is that Ukraine will be pushed further and further back from the front line what they didn't 26:11 anticipate is that Ukraine would be able to uh gather together and mobilize a strike force which would be diverted to 26:18 some region not where the Russians are pushing forward but up north further 26:23 north in the kusk region and that they would suddenly spring under surprise on the Russians which is exactly what they 26:30 have done and I think um yes of course they will be blamed for bad intelligence 26:35 bad defense but to be fair to them I don't think they could have seen this coming you made a really interesting 26:41 point a moment ago Michael about some of the reaction inside Russia including in the Russian media that of course is is 26:47 so controlled by the Kremlin to a large extent but but has been critical in recent weeks to what extent will people 26:53 inside Russia even be aware of the full extent of what's happening in the kers region I mean clearly it is an 26:58 informational autocracy if you're living in KK if you're living in belgrad O blast which has been evacuated you'll be 27:03 aware of it but if you're living if you're ordinary Russian in moscos and Petersburg or one of the other cities or towns how aware are you well not very 27:11 aware officially because as you say there's been a clamp down and Putin himself has barely commented on this at 27:17 all uh he's been invisible uh except that he's done a few walkabouts just 27:22 recently and as somebody remarked only when Putin is under pressure does he go on walkabouts and try to show himself as 27:29 a real leader liked by the people you know popular shaking hands all that sort of thing normally he's much more remote 27:36 much more secluded and he hasn't really said much about this possibly a sign of embarrassment because he doesn't quite 27:42 know what he should say but the fact that there has been a sort of information blackout it's not a complete 27:48 blackout but it's it's certainly not much detail of what the um ukrainians 27:53 have gained in the region that can be undermined by all these people who f who 27:58 all have relatives all over Russia uh or probably many of them do and word has 28:03 got back by Word of Mouth which is the normal way uh people have said do you know what's happening down there let me 28:09 tell you my uncle has just told me this and this and this or whatever it is and and word spreads pretty quickly so I 28:16 think a lot of Russians are quite aware of exactly uh the danger that they've now face and the problem of having lost 28:24 territory for the first time since the second world war which is a huge humiliation I mean it does seem not like 28:29 a deliberate tactic now by the ukrainians to to bring the war quite literally to Russia not only in terms of 28:35 this incursion but also the Drone attacks that we've seen on Moscow and also the fact you know you've got telegram down you've got WhatsApp down 28:42 you know if you're living in Russia it's becoming more apparent that all is not well I think that's absolutely clear yes 28:47 I mean the Drone attacks on Moscow uh probably don't inflict much damage uh 28:52 it's clearly demoralizing to think that from far away from you know a thousand miles away whatever it is uh they are 28:59 still able to send something over to cause damage in the capital which uh up till now has felt pretty safe I mean 29:06 there've been one or two sporadic attacks up till now I think that's probably uh in terms of Ukrainian 29:12 tactics a little bit dubious it will certainly um cause doubts among 29:18 Ukraine's Western supporters they've told the ukrainians look we're not here to back an allout War we don't want you 29:25 targeting uh Moscow or any other big population centers uh we are ready to go 29:31 along with strikes on Russian military establishments particularly in the Border regions which have happened and 29:37 which where they've used drones to some good effect but I think um the Drone attacks well they're intended not really 29:44 to to cause damage but to demoralize Russia and to embarrass uh the Russian 29:50 leadership and they probably have done that uh but I think much more the embarrassment is losing territory I mean 29:56 that is the real key thing that's never happened before and that certainly is something that the Russians will feel 30:02 both angry about and probably ashamed we spoking about puin being pretty paralyzed at the moment but what do you 30:08 think he will decide to do in the end Michael I think if if possible he would decide on a massive military Counter 30:14 Strike I think he will be preparing a force that will go straight in in enormous numbers and uh with uh 30:22 overwhelming force and weapons and at the same time he will probably prepare a 30:27 huge uh drone or missile or bombing attack on big cities in Ukraine I mean 30:34 KV has already been under attack Kiev comes under regular attack but I think 30:39 these will be redoubled and he will go for the infrastructure which they've been doing already uh trying to knock 30:45 out all their energy networks and things of that kind and it will really uh the the aim is to make it as difficult and 30:51 uncomfortable for Ukraine as possible and if possible cut off their lines of communication to the 30:58 region how secure do you think his position is at the moment hard to tell I mean everybody says well this must be 31:05 embarrassing for him and I'm sure there are Rumblings and this that and the other who knows I mean he's been very 31:11 much in charge throughout the entire Ukraine war the attempted Rebellion by 31:17 pin the Vagner group I mean that was pretty quickly snuffed out and fairly brutally with a guy you know 31:23 assassinated on on a plane clearly brought down by a bomb of some kind kind 31:28 uh and challenges to Putin are certainly not visible uh he is secure in that he's 31:35 got virtually everybody on his side or at least the Army um depends on him he's 31:41 been pretty critical of the leadership of the army and various others and those 31:46 who failed have been dismissed some of those who failed it's hard to see where 31:52 any challenge to his own power would come from it's not possible politically 31:57 to oust Putin funnily enough it was much easier to get rid of a Soviet leader 32:03 because in the polit bureau all you had to do was to out vote the leader and that's what happened to Kristof and he 32:09 was stumped you know he was voted out there's no way of getting rid of Putin constitutionally except by impeachment 32:16 in the Parliament and of course with a tame Parliament like that it's never going to happen the only way of getting 32:21 rid of him is by kudeta and that would have to be with the cooperation of the Army and the intelligence services and 32:28 whatever other agencies around could be mobilized to strike against him and it 32:33 doesn't look as though that's likely do you think his wider strategy is still to wait until November to wait until the US 32:39 election and hope for a second Trump presidency oh I think that's definitely a factor yes I mean whether a trump 32:45 presidency is as guaranteed now as it was uh three months ago is open to question but uh I think he does think or 32:53 feel that the Trump Administration a new one would be much more indul ENT of what 32:59 Russia is doing I mean Trump himself boasted you know I'll end this in a in a few days or so in other words I'll just 33:05 say to Russia you take what you want that's the end of it we'll just tell Ukraine that's it no more weapons you're 33:11 on your own make a deal uh which and that circumstance would be a very disadvantageous deal uh and I think 33:18 Putin feels all he has to do is to wait and see now if Trump doesn't win does he 33:23 then feel Under Pressure to make a deal or will the Chinese who are the only ones who could actually push Russia one 33:30 way or the other do they think that that would be the time that they would step in and say it's time to actually end this war or not we really don't know I 33:38 don't think there's going to be any Movement by Putin certainly for the next few months it's really interesting what 33:43 we say about the Chinese there do you think that Xi Jinping is pretty much the only person on the planet who has the power to pick up the phone to Putin and 33:49 say call it off absolutely yes nobody else could I mean one or two think that they could be peacemakers the Turks 33:55 think I mean eredan thinks that he is in a position to uh get Putin to agree to 34:00 some kind of deal and turkey could uh intervene with a proposal for a non-intervention or you know ceasefire 34:07 whatever it might be um the Turks negotiated a minor deal in the past they were the intermediaries over the um 34:14 decision to allow Ukraine to export its grain uh from through the Black Sea 34:19 without being interrupted but that was a pretty minor deal and I think the Russians didn't feel they were losing 34:25 much by it but in terms of actually ending the the war yes the Chinese are the only people who have real influence 34:31 over Moscow and it depends how they see it whether they think that uh having the 34:37 war as an embarrassment for the West is more worth it than ending what they see as potentially destabilizing conflict 34:44 that could cost China quite a lot in terms of secondary Western boycotts of their own trade which they didn't want 34:51 they won't want uh we'll we'll see but certainly they are the only ones in a position to to pick up the phone and say 34:58 time to time to declare Victory and end it let's talk about the Ukrainian side of things what is your sense of what 35:03 Ukraine's primary objective is I mean increasingly I'm of the view that maybe it's actually designed to send a message to Ukraine's Western allies to go look 35:10 we can cross Putin's so-called red lines and we can prove he's bluffing because he hasn't responded with tactical 35:16 nuclear weapons or the worst case scenario I think you're right yes I it certainly is a message to the West we 35:22 are not finished you know we may have been slowly retreating along the whole of the Eastern front but look we have 35:28 initiative we have capability and we can spring surprises and we can inflict a 35:34 serious military and political setback on Russia uh and also that we are ready 35:40 to hold territory as a bargaining chip I mean they made it quite clear this is not a long-term objective they're not 35:46 trying to occupy Russian territory and as you say they are to some extent calling Russia's Bluff because the 35:53 Russians have said several times including former president mvv who who said that um any incursion onto vital 36:01 Russian interests including Russian territory would incur the strongest possible response in other words a 36:08 tactical Nuclear response well that's not happened and we hope is not going to 36:13 happen so Ukraine is uh performing useful service in showing up what appear 36:18 to be Bluffs but the danger of that is it may not be a bluff you know there may be a Russian counter response and it 36:25 could be pretty devastating we don't know so I think the West is wise to be cautious but at the same time it's also 36:33 being pushed by Ukraine to say we're not finished yet give us the weapons and we will succeed so I want to first of all 36:39 get your thoughts on on what we've seen in the past 24 hours or so which is this pretty major drone attack on on Moscow 36:45 what is your analysis of this well there have been drone attacks before on Moscow so it's the scale of 36:52 this one which is slightly different not quite sure if one or two of the 11 got through what it plays into really is 36:59 this abundant and accumulating vulnerability which we see to Russia uh 37:05 it's worth saying of course that it's not the first time and it's not it's the range really because although there's a 37:11 restriction on the use of certain um NATO weapons we need to remind ourselves 37:17 on the 25th of July for example um Ukrainian drones struck Elena Airfield 37:23 in the mamans region when a number of backfire bombers were hit that is 8 1800 37:28 km from the front line and Moscow is something like in a direct line if 37:33 you're flying there 841 kilometers so that is well beyond the reach of for example the high Mars 37:41 Rockets So what it really shows us is that Ukraine are producing their own 37:46 drones they can be successful and what you do after these attacks be they 37:51 failed or otherwise is you do a battlefield damage assessment and the thing we call the measurement of 37:57 Effectiveness assessment which is why did it potentially fail what routs can we use in the future what height do we 38:05 um fly out for example and how can we make it better so to so that we succeed 38:10 so you know Moscow would argue that the L defense worked and it probably did but 38:16 um flights were um cancelled at various Moscow airports and it is that as I said 38:22 this accumulating vulnerability with the fact that Moscow can be hit as an 38:27 incursion in curse all these things with population fleeing can play into this 38:33 fact of the psychological aspect of War which I often bang on about because 38:38 people just look at things in a physical sense but it's the collapse of will or the the contribution to the collapse of 38:45 will that is ultimately the uh key thing in war now you have to be slightly careful because we see a partial view of 38:53 the war and one of the or two of the key things about being an analyst is you you got to be very careful that you're not 38:59 adopting optimism bias and availability bias but of the things that you 39:04 see I mean that's a really good point but but your sense is this plays into the wider Ukrainian tactic of taking the 39:10 war to Russia in the same way we're seeing in the kers region with the incursion and now we're seeing it in 39:17 Moscow with this large scale drone attack well in terms of their deep ble I think it now shows that there are three 39:23 types of targets the first one are the oil refineries and we have heard some talk in the last week don't know if it's 39:30 true or not that there was going to be some sort of um you don't strike ours and we don't strike yours in terms of 39:36 oil refineries or electricity generation in Ukraine so the oil refineries uh 39:43 attacks deep deep battle attacks by the ukrainians are working I think and we see this by the fact that again from the 39:50 1st of September to the 31st of uh December there's a going to be a further ban on gasoline exports from Russia 39:58 so they all refineries as the first deep battle Target the second one which the curse Cur incursion helps with is the 40:05 Airfield so you know trying to knock out the airfields in the west of Russia which um host um the aircraft which are 40:13 targeting um Ukrainian cities and that is why for example that Airfield the Alena Airfield in manans was attacked on 40:20 the 25th of July and the third one is you know Moscow is the capital city and therefore it's iconic if you infuse use 40:27 that vulnerability there then um that is going to have an impact at some stage now that doesn't mean that um you know 40:35 it I've often said that there's an eroding stalemate it's pretty pretty slow erosion at the the moment some 40:42 stage there is likely to be a landslide it's very very difficult to see when that Landslide will be what I would say 40:49 about the Cur operation from a political level at the moment for um Putin is that 40:54 of course they've not defined it as a military operation from their perspective the FSB and uh has the lead 41:00 it's been deemed a counterterrorist operation that is deliberate because it therefore is not deemed to be a state of 41:07 war and martial law has not being declared and at the moment that should uh prevent any blowback on Putin until 41:15 you have either Mass casualties or other things that occur which could happen again in a sort of micro sense of what 41:22 is happening in K at the moment just want to pick up on what you just said there about Landslide by that do you 41:29 mean a decisive shift in momentum at some point during this war and do you think we're close to 41:35 that it's very very difficult to say that what you can say again from an historical perspective for example is 41:42 that in this same period of time in 1918 at the end of the battle of amor the Allies went seven miles in a week and 41:49 that was deemed to be the black day for the um for the German Army no uh Ukraine 41:55 no Allied troops ever were in Germany in the first world war to so to say from when you go to an eroding position to a 42:03 landslide is very very difficult to to to measure I've often said that there 42:08 are three variables here that we look at look at firstly are the population uh 42:13 Fed Up and therefore want a change in their political polity and I think one of the interesting things about the kers 42:19 Inver uh incursion has been how benign the Russian population have been they 42:24 just don't seem to be that bothered by the Ukrainian incursion neither do they 42:29 seem to be up in arms about Putin now if they haven't got Services then that might come to fruition and one of the 42:36 things that the ukrainians might be trying to do is to uh make sure that there's no electricity passing across 42:42 that region to bad and therefore if you got no electricity in that region and the lights go black or the lights go out 42:49 that can have an impact on the people and I think the interesting thing from the curse thing again this plays into 42:56 the fact that it's de CT operation and the fact that it's in Russia territory 43:01 means that conscripts can be used because they although they can't be used abroad they can be used in Russian 43:07 territory now the conscripts should they be used are pretty badly trained and and 43:13 if you have a large number of body bags occurring then you do get into this aspect of potentially the mother mothers 43:20 of Russia um kicking off which happened of course in the Afghanistan war but the 43:25 will to challenge the ra regim from the population and the mothers has not been there at the moment there's been no 43:30 dividing rule there so let's take the population aside from that one the second thing we always say is that the 43:37 Army might Revolt as they did in the first world war which led to the Treaty of breast TOS of course we're not really 43:42 seeing that at the moment could be again because you will see I think when we get on to the tactics of curse that there's 43:49 going to be more bad news for Russia and the third aspect of course is if the political polity or the elites defect 43:56 around Putin but at the moment the elites aren't defecting around him they stayed with him largely after the priene 44:03 um sort of March on Moscow and most of them are culpable in the war anyway so everything at the moment looks 44:09 manageable from a Russian perspective as we stand on the 18th day of this inur 44:15 incursion what from a military perspective is is unusual is that although Ukraine achiev surprise which 44:22 we always say can have a force multipli of three times it's worth in um combat 44:27 terms that that surprise normally dissipates between one to three days here we are on day 16 and they still 44:35 seem to be going forward and that surprise has not decayed so that's unusual uh so the Russian response has 44:42 not been vigorous as you think it might might be or should be yeah I want to come back to the situation on the ground 44:48 in kers in a moment I mean Ju Just on that point about the threats to Putin's position on on a on times radio earlier 44:56 on we spoke to um Shawn Bell military analyst and and former fighter pilot and he was saying that um he thinks actually 45:03 Putin is vulnerable potentially to a kind of Palace coup from oligarchs and and I hear what you say chip that 45:08 there's no sign of it at the moment but I suppose if you are in the political 45:13 Elites around Putin in Russia you you don't show your hand I mean to do so would put you in Mortal danger so some 45:18 of these conversations will be happening on a very low level you know in very hushed voices in the corridors of power 45:24 do you think we might be closer to that than we' been for some time no so to to answer the question is 45:32 Putin is Putin weakened you would say no if you believe as I do at the moment the 45:38 the entire a siloviki the military political establishment is complicit in the war to answer Sha's point about yes 45:45 that would be um he is vulnerable because you're not seeing a Great Patriotic swelling of uh of patriotism 45:52 after the incursion into K or because uh he may have lost his image as Russia's 45:59 protector because um the ukrainians are in curs but because it's a marginal region from a a perspect Russian 46:07 perspective he can overcome that because he still thinks that he holds the Strategic whip hand in terms of a long 46:15 War where the West will um will you know get fed up with it and therefore he will 46:21 be able to um have the terms that he wants for some sort of future negotiations I I think that's also 46:27 dangerous for him at the moment though because one of the Notions of you know peace is always has always been a frozen 46:34 peace well Frozen peace when you've got um Ukrainian troops on your soil doesn't 46:40 look very any good and of course the Chinese for example the Chinese peace plan which came out in February 23 the 46:47 first anniversary of the war did talk about a de demilitarize Zone up to the 46:52 ne Den denipa I.E uh all the way through through the sort of um dunesque region 46:59 and from a Chinese perspective incorporating saparia and hen now we can 47:04 now potentially reverse that and say hang on let's have a d DNZ demilitarized zone on the Russian side of the Border 47:12 because this isn't necessarily the end of the operation from a uh Ukrainian perspective one of the things I think is 47:18 interesting is I'm not sure if the Russians think that this is just a faint in the same way that the Germans thought 47:24 that Normandy wasn't the main effort for the allies in June 44 so they might be expecting 47:29 something else somewhere else that could be another incursion in bellad it could 47:34 be a move down through zapia could be through Kon and it's that keeping the 47:40 enemy on the horns of of a dilemma which is the key thing in terms of the future of how the ukrainians develop this 47:47 operation in curse or something that goes with the operation in curse so Putin is not vulnerable at the moment 47:53 and that would be overplaying the mark severely here we are two weeks into Ukraine's 47:59 incursion into the kers region of Russia what is your assessment of how it's going at the moment well it's certainly 48:06 going a lot better than almost anybody would have expected from the Ukrainian side I think the ukrainians were 48:11 confident that Russia had poorest and vulnerable uh borders on its Western flank because of the ease in which 48:17 partisans from the Russian volunteer Corps in May of 2023 were able to cross those borders the ease by which similar 48:23 kinds of partisans were able to cross into belrad and kirly this year and perhaps most uh dramatically how rapid Y 48:31 pran's water group forces were able to take over the military headquarters and raw stuff on Dawn and marched to within 48:38 200 miles of Moscow but uh the obviously the fact that the ukrainians have a 48:43 military Administration being set up in KK less than two weeks into their offensive uh is something that I think 48:49 nobody could have anticipated it's a really good point you raised about progan because it simultaneously feels 48:56 quite recent but also feels a long time ago in that weird way that that the time plays that trick on us and and I suppose 49:02 what it reminds us of is there was so much conversation in the wake of the prian Mutiny of the vulnerability of 49:08 Putin's position but so far this year because Russia's been on the front first in the east of Ukraine and has been 49:14 making incremental gains a lot of that conversation had died down until now but 49:19 now we're being reminded of some of the fundamental weaknesses of of Putin's position exactly I think that Putin's 49:25 position never really really uh durably strengthened I think after the uh takeover of PR failed Mutiny I think 49:33 that what happened was the Putin's Russia decided to use repression against Russian alter nationalist which is not a 49:39 tactic that it had used in the past alter nationalist forces throughout Russian history have historically been a 49:45 thorn on the side of the ruling Elites during the uh first world war it was the 49:51 uh law of Russian internationalist forces who resisted any kind of compromise with Germany who wanted more 49:56 of a total War who believed that Zar Nicholas II was not really fighting the war more strongly enough they uh carried 50:02 out the 1993 constitutional crisis against Boris yelson they um even OCC 50:07 from some members of the bullk party even occupi buildings in the early 2000s so uh but Putin opted in the mid-2000s 50:15 to quap those groups to bring in and Empower figures like gramson kadirov patri kol from the Orthodox Church you 50:21 have Jenny progan Ser glv as economic advisor H and Demitri Rog go in from uh 50:28 as ambassador to Nato and uh but but when time the Ukraine war came around their criticisms uh became so sharp that 50:35 they were discrediting and undermining his authority and that of the Russian Ministry of defense and the Russian military and after the Mutiny he chose 50:43 to repress them that's why he arrested girin that's why peran got assassinated that's why sikin got dismissed that's 50:50 why a whole host of these developments uh took place but uh that unrest is is 50:55 not going to go away I mean there there was actually sizable numbers of criticisms on Russian telegram of the 51:00 slow pace of Russia's war effort warnings about the uh lack of fortifications and defense on Russia's 51:06 borders even before what we saw in KK and now that mistrust in the military and the political establishment is 51:11 starting to resurface and bubble up again because 150 years of history of Russian alter nationalist being a thored 51:17 on the side in the Kremlin is not going to go away just because you shoot down prion plan I mean that's a really good point I 51:23 want to come on to some of the specifics about the incursion in a but just from the kind of the kremlinology side of it 51:31 I mean what do you think the conversation would have been like a couple of weeks ago when presumably one 51:37 of Putin's military advisers approached President Putin told him by the way 51:43 Ukraine have crossed the border into the K region that they're managing to hold some territory what would have been going through his head when he heard 51:49 that well exactly that's what we've been seeing from some of the latest reporting that these discussions were happening about 2 weeks before the Cur concurs 51:56 began the very idea that the ukrainians could take substantial amounts of Russian territory and hold it for a 52:01 period of time but I think that there was Collective skepticism and disbelief within the Russian Ministry of defense 52:07 and within the FSB and also the old tendency recirculating again the F 52:13 nobody in the FSB nobody in the ministry of Defense wants to be the person to be the bearer of bad news to Putin because 52:19 if you bear bad news to the uh to the Russian Newar it doesn't really end very well for you so I that that uh 52:25 historical dishonesty within the system is something that's really come to the for right now and it's undermined Russia's preparations and it's really 52:32 exposed the Russian Ministry of Defense to be inept and incompetent the very fact that Valerie gerasimov just two 52:38 days into the incursion said that it was not only contained but the 300 Ukrainian forces that had entered K were dead I 52:45 think is a sign that uh nobody really believes or has any trust if they had anything left at all and what's coming 52:51 from the messaging from the Russian military and the problem is that doesn't allow Putin and it doesn't allow his in circle to respond effectively to changes 52:59 on the ground I mean this is always the danger of leading an autocratic regime you know 53:04 when you use propaganda as a tool you start to wonder at what point does the leader believe their own propaganda at 53:11 what point do they become high on their own Supply and do you think that's the situation Putin is in at the moment well I think that's been the situation that 53:17 Putin's been in uh even before this fullscale invasion of Ukraine I think that basically they were they bought 53:23 into the notion that about 25 or 30% of UK ukrainians before the war were going to uh because they were ethnic Russian 53:30 because they spoke Russian we're going to be greeting the Russians as liberators so that the Russians would have no problem uh taking over large 53:37 sways of Kuran Zaria as well as the remainders of D and luhansk and possibly even Bush for K in adessa and Putin is 53:44 in a circle believe that even though in 2014 they realized that when the Russian 53:50 uh deniable forces went into dones ethnic Russians in Ukraine Russian speakers in Ukraine took up arms and 53:55 fought for theuk Ukrainian Army but they didn't necessarily remember that experience 8 years later because the 54:00 propaganda was so intense that they believed that these people were going to rise up and that's been The Chronic uh 54:07 uh mistake and The Chronic blind spot that the Kremlin has had pretty much uh ever since then I don't think the 54:13 Ukrainian the Russians really believe that the ukrainians were able to launch an effective offensive operation that's 54:18 why when the ukrainians started launching a counter offensive in the summer of 2022 in Kon and K they 54:25 basically in the day said that it was going to be fail failing it was going to be rebuffed there was no way they were going to be able to achieve success and 54:32 then the ukrainians achieved Landmark successes and the failure of the uh summer 2023 counter offensive for 54:38 Ukraine I think just reinforced uh this sense of inflated overconfidence and 54:43 that's what we saw happening in kurur there was really no way in which I think Putin or any of his in circle really 54:49 believe that the ukrainians could actually act on what they were saying the ukrainians have been saying that they want to bring the war to Russia to 54:55 make the Russians feel the consequence of what they're doing to Ukrainian civilians every day I don't think that Putin is in a circle ever believe that 55:02 the ukrainians would be able to do that what do you think explains Samuel the slowness of the Russian response 55:09 because if you're going to launch an effective Counterattack it helps if you launch that Counterattack quickly but 55:14 here we are two weeks on and there's no particular sign of Russia pushing back against the territory that's been taken 55:20 by Ukraine well because I think that there's a lot of issues associated with how Russia can actually respond to this 55:27 quite effectively the ukrainians are coming in not with a bunch of untrained forces but with some of their seasoned 55:33 uh commanders some of the commanders who are fighting in uh in K are people who were fighting for territorial defense 55:39 battalions uh as early as 2014 so they have a lot of experience on the ground they have natoc class infrastructure 55:45 along with them they have hear systems that can destroy as we've seen now three bridges in the Cur region so uh this is 55:53 not an inexperienced bunch and it looks as if that the Russians were claiming that 300 ukrainians enter it probably 55:59 was closer to 2,000 and uh it could be as much as 15,000 that the uh ukrainians 56:05 may be able to hold in that uh in that area so the ukrainians have come with a 56:10 large number of troops they cannot really be dislodged easily so this leaves Russia with a quander as to how 56:15 it can respond because the only people that it had on its borders were untrained conscripts who were easily overrun some of the conscripts on the 56:22 borders didn't even have guts and they were fighting against people with natoc class equipment and and Military 56:27 professionals so it was obviously a tate of total chaos so the Russians have got three choices now they either withdraw 56:33 forces from Kon and zapia uh which is what they've been doing According to some Ukrainian military sources last 56:39 week because they don't believe the ukrainians can cross the river in Deno and uh take over that uh other Bank of 56:45 Kon very easily the uh fortifications and oparation are so strong that even a draw down a Manpower will still make it 56:51 very hard for the ukrainians to cut through all those mines and trenches as we saw last summer 56:56 that's probably what they're doing right now they're sending Ros Gardia into the mix also to try to strengthen and Shore 57:04 up and sty the Ukrainian advance and they're sending more conscripts onto the front lines but that doesn't seem to be enough to stop Ukraine's advances because Ukraine even after some of those things were done was able to take over suja and was able to destroy the bridges and move move further so now the Russians face an even more uncomfortable quandre they have to with withdraw some forces from dones where right where they're right on the C of achieving his success in Bros and the r on the CP of achieving success in chazar which could allow them to push into the Donis major cities finally after all that sacrifice in back mode they have to blow that s they have to blow their advantage there and defend their Homeland or they have to call some effectively a much larger mobilization effectively something resembling a general mobilization but to even give those new conscripts a minimal amount of training it means the Ukrainian forces are probably going to be stuck in Russia for at least a month or two yeah and of course a big mobilization push carries with it political risks as well I mean of those options Samuel which do you think is the most likely we'll see from Russia well I think that the uh Russians 58:07 are actually picking none of the above and they're taking a very highrisk strategy they're they're hoping that they can make some f much faster than expensive gains in dones after pakros Falls and then Force the ukrainians to go back and withdraw the troops from kisk and defend their Homeland there's a it's true that the Russians are making incremental gains in the pakros area and there have been evacuations now the the ukrainians are saying they have to leave within 2 weeks in a town of 53,000 people it's possible that that uh that area will fall and Russia will get a significant logistical Advantage but Russia does not have a history aside from marapole of taking over large cities inside Ukraine uh with any degree of pace so moving on to Sloans and cruris is going to be a long slop I think the Russians believe that they can carry out some kind of a surprise Blitz and Don as can force the ukrainians to withdraw and that's their strategy right now but I don't think that that's 59:01 necessarily that feasible so I think the Russians will have to go back to those two very unpalatable choices Surrender Your momentum in eastern Ukraine or start mobilizing a lot more people sounds like you're saying the Russians are still in denial I think the Russians are still in denial they're still scrambling on how to adjust and they still also scrambling on how to adjust in a way that promotes a sense of normaly at home especially after the propaganda was that this is nothing much to worry about so the Russian telegram channels when they first said there was nothing much to worry about were kind of being a bit guarded but but critical in their own way they were like saying the Russians are finally sent as gardan regular forces they how many times you use the word finally in one paragraph to make that point right that was I think oex sarv who made that kind of post and uh and others were kind of uh urging saying the situation was very grave that was like their way of criticizing it I think that if the situation uh lasts long longer being in denial and trying to promote a mood of normaly is not going to satisfy the clued in ultr 1:00:01 nationalist bloggers who populate the telegram best you mentioned the bridges a moment ago Samuel I wanted to ask you about that because Ukraine has now destroyed the third and final Bridge linking the occupied part of the KK region to the rest of the oblast how significant is that and I mean you've got Russia saying playing it down almost saying look we've been able to establish pontoon so it doesn't really matter again is that Russia being in or how would you evaluate the significance of of dropping those bridges well I think it's very significant I think it's also again the risk of Russia being in uh denial because how many times did the Russians talk about their pontoon fairies and their temporary Crossings in Kuran in the months leading up to the uh collapse of the of Kon in in November 2022 right uh from August November 20122 that was exactly what they were talking about all these kind of pontoons and fairies and and alternative Supply roots to replace the bridges but once the ukrainians got the antovski bridge there was not much the Russians could do so I think that 1:01:01 this is looking like a repeat of the military failures that we saw in uh Kuran uh with regards to the bridges and the initial Ukrainian incursion into uh into Kur is looking a lot like the Underman positions in K that had to flee in September of 2022 so this uh setback in kers is reminding the Russians even if they don't want to admit it of their two uh most humiliating defeats of this war that withdrawal from K that withdraw from K wanted to get your thoughts as well Samuel on on a conversation we were having on yesterday's episode of Frontline with the former British army colonel now military analyst hey Mr Breton Gordon and he was saying he thinks it's feasible that we will see Ukraine launch further crossborder attacks into Russia in the coming weeks and months given the success of the KK incursion do you agree with that well I think it's very possible I think that there was some reporting yesterday and the economist picked up on it that uh K is not the only region where the ukrainians thought that they could make an advance ukrainians were also looking quite seriously at Brians and Brians was 1:02:02 an area where they were shelling uh even uh in the in middle of 2022 and and that was one of the first regions actually of Russia where the ukrainians actually struck and try to bring the war to the Russians right so there's a possibility that they could do something in brance there's a possibility that they could do something uh in belgrad I have a feeling that the uh the the Russians were most prepared for the belgrad scenario which is why there have been so many evacuations and sealing off of uh of territory as unsafe they figured that belgrad would be the natural antidote to striking karke whereas K could be the natural antidote to striking Sumi they done more damage to karke so they expected more from belgrad but I think so I think that if the ukrainians go somewhere else they will trick the Russians again and hit Brians rather than hit uh belgrad again of course we don't know at this stage what Ukraine's primary objective with the KK incursion is so we can only speculate our suppose originally I thought what it's designed to divert troops away from the front line in the east of Ukraine into kers G 1:03:02 and regain the initiative increasingly and I don't know whether you agree with this Samuel my sense is maybe this actually was designed as a message to the west to say look if we take the fight of Russia a we can win and B your fears of some kind of retaliation some drastic retaliation potentially using tactical nuclear weapons by Putin those fears are unfounded what is your sense of things I think I absolutely agree with what you're just saying right now I think that the uh the Western perception was very much that Ukraine was going to try to drain out Russia's Manpower and uh it's true that the Russians may have to divert Manpower from Don over there but as I've just been saying that's the option that they're going to have to go if as an undesirable uh maybe lesser evil choice to Greater conscription and it's not something that's going to happen immediately as we're seeing right so it's a it's it's only uh it's something that could happen but it's not something that will happen immediately I think that the ukrainians are aware that the Russians have a lot of Canon F that they can throw on the front lines still so what they're trying to do is trying to convince the uh the West that uh the 1:04:05 the fight is worth uh supporting after they failed counter offensive last summer and the slowdown in Congressional Aid that we saw in the first half of this year they really want to show uh regardless of who gets into the White House in in November whether it be Campell Harris or Donald Trump especially I think Trump that this is a war that's worth uh fighting and continuing to support they want to strengthen their position position in future negotiations uh whether that be a temporary curse for K land swap or whether that be occupying more Russian territory and force and pushing for something more more more substantive in a final settlement uh negotiation I think that's also something that they're trying to do and more importantly they're trying to blow this idea of escalation risks with Russia and trying to get people to stop thinking about this because Russia really can't escalate that much more than they're already doing I think that's what the ukrainians want to send a message to they can kill more Ukrainian civilians but they're unlikely to use nuclear weapons and that's why the Germans 1:05:00 should move ahead with the tourist cruise missiles the Americans should send more cruise missiles the Americans should give permission for longrange strengths all across Russia not just across the borders and uh the um British should really uh come up with a more firm and consistent policy on the Storm Shadows so I think that that's what the ukrainians want in the short term do you see any sign of that though Samuel do you see any sign of Ukraine's Western allies moving on those restrictions well I think that uh there will be signs I think as the cens goes on I think it's a little bit too early to say I think here ster certainly has uh basically alluded to the fact that the storm Shadows can be used more more extensively and I think that that that's that could be a step and really as we noted all it takes is one major Ally to make a big decision and the others usually tend to fall in line right so when France and the Dutch and some others broke the taboo on striking Russia period we even saw Schultz known for his caution uh go along with the use of German weapons and German weapons have been used in the cerss defensive and there hasn't been any criticism from Germany about that we when the Germans 1:06:06 were holding their back on the tanks the Americans promised the Abrams and look what happened the leopards came right so all it takes is one or two allies to uh set the trend and to uh move all the others in line and I suspect that we will see more than one or two allies doing that in the weeks to come

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