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Date: 2025-06-18 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027277

RUSSIAN AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE UKRAINE'S TURN! Times Radio \| Diane Francis: Putin’s warlords and oligarchs threaten coup as Ruble craters PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaaN0ZdI_do Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin’s warlords and oligarchs threaten coup as Ruble craters \| Diane Francis Times Radio 925K subscribers Aug 23, 2024 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security 'The ruble is cratering and there are some very prominent Russians who are now speaking out against this war very unusually.' Putin's position is no longer secure, says journalist Diane Francis. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:00 there's a lot of very violent people in Russia H and many of whom work for him and we've seen in the past that you know if you're a dictator and you have any slippage you're surrounded by Ruthless People they'll get rid of you just as you got rid of them if they were wrong wrong stepping hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I'm James Hansen and today we're talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and I'm delighted to be joined by Diane Francis a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington she's editor at large with an National Post newspaper and has a must-read substack with regular updates on geopolitics including the war in Ukraine and Putin's Russia Dian welcome back to front line thank you very much your latest substack piece is a fascinating look at the perilous position Vladimir Putin currently finds himself in and what's really interesting is is the growing descent inside Russia can you just expand a bit on that and what some of the people have been saying well this is uh this is unique again uh I think think it's because uh Ukraine 1:01 has turned the tables and it's now attacking Russia it's attacking Russia inside Russia it's grabbed a chunk of Russia by occupying it it's got a nuclear plant it's got prisoners of War it's being aggressive in return it's no longer content with being a punching bag and the further they go in their incursion the it makes it possible for them to get over any restrictions on using weapons uh in a long range because they're closer to the Target so they can use the short range weapons that they're allowed to use and not use the long range that some of the Americans and others have forbidden them for using by just moving their their missile launchers inside Russia closer to the targets they're also swamping Moscow as well as Crimea with drain attacks and so all of this has happened and this has happened in the last week week or so and this has 2:00 turned psychologically turned the tables inside Russia and I think internationally uh because U you know the the ruble is cratering and there are some very prominent Russians who are now speaking out against this war and against Putin very unusually so there's a level of it's an enormous shift I think inside Russia I mean what does that tell us about the weakness of Putin's position because famously he does not tolerate dissent does the fact that you've now got people coming out feeling more free to criticize the regime in the Kremlin does that show that that maybe Putin's position is is severely undermined now well I I'm not sure that they feel more free I think they're they're very upset and they can't stand it any longer and they're they're they're doing it regardless so the latest one is another um militia mercenary head uh and he's he's come out 3:01 on video just as progan do we all remember progan last year he came out criticizing Putin and the war asked for an end to the war his mercenaries were in there fighting as are this guys and of course he staged a very brief Mutiny and was eventually assassinated despite that another guy has come forward publicly very courageously and you know you got to remember that they have a military in the government of Russia but there are hundreds of private militias like progan had that are owned by oligarchs and so that they could get together and also and he's demanding that the Army overthrow Putin he that's what he's saying overthrow him he's also talking about the enormous social problems that this has caused for Russian people I mean he's obviously setting himself up he wants a coup he wants a coup to talk 4:00 and then there's another prominent oligarch who's also publicly come out very strongly against the war and and also calling for it to end and he's probably backed by other oligarchs so what you're seeing and then there's a third fellow who's a very important Inner Circle guy who's been demoted because he's said a few things he hasn't come out in favor of overthrowing Putin but he's he's created problems for Putin so Putin Still Remains the dictator it still would require an army Mutiny or a Cuda by the military to probably get rid of them unless he feels forced or is forced physically to leave it's it's a big development I mean it's I don't know to me it seems hard to imagine Putin voluntarily leaving power because he will think he is safest in power surely well maybe he will find out that he isn't uh and and and you know he has a children and a family and you know 5:02 there there's a lot of very violent people in Russia H and many of whom work for him and we've seen in the past that you know if you're a dictator and you have any slippage you're surrounded by Ruthless People they'll get rid of you just as you got rid of them if they were wrong wrong stepping so you know he's he can't be all that secure I think another thing that's interesting psychologically is that the ukrainians about three weeks ago leaked the fact that they had uh they had the ability to assassinate Putin at a big Naval parade in a certain city in Russia went to the Pentagon to ask for permission because they needed to use American Weaponry were refused okay what that means is it was disappointing for many people I guess but the point is that by leaking it they made it very clear to Mr Putin they'll get him if they can and they and they were only prevented from getting getting that he's vulnerable he's not invincible 6:02 so psychologically you know his uh his strength is being sapped yeah and we know for instance in recent weeks he's transferred air defenses from the front line in Ukraine to protect uh the Kremlin but also his home in SOI as well so clearly he is feeling nervous there's understandably D been a lot of focus on the humiliation of the incursion into K and the evacuation of people from belgrod I mean you know this is the largest invasion of Russia since the second world war it is a humiliating moment but there hasn't been so much discussion but you touched on this very interestingly in your in your substack piece about the falling value of the rubble how significant do you think that is well I think that the kurk uh invasion is now getting disseminated to to uh to the world's World community that you know it looked like just a little deal uh you know were they going to get a nuclear plant what does it mean what are they doing it for they're you know they're they're they're much smaller army they can't possibly 7:01 Outlast the Russians but now as it it disseminates you see that the the magical thing about it is that those people as you alluded to who were evacuated those Russians 80 Villages and then 80 more probably in belgrod you know Putin can control the state media about around this incursion but he can't stop the the people in belgrad and K who who are being evacuated and frightened from calling their relatives and telling them what's going on and asking if they can have a spare bedroom to sleep in I mean this is spreading through that Society very quickly and so is the fear and we're also seeing some State uh media companies uh quoting or allowing people to speak out so I I you know I I'm I'm optimistic that eventually uh this guy has done a war that's not helped his country that's damaging his economy look the curse grade shows that 8:03 Ukraine still has game it also shows because the invasion in kers was done with German American and NATO tanks so he they've got backing the Germans are coming out the president Stein Meer said yesterday when there were rumors they may cut their military to Aid to Ukraine no we are going to be and remain Ukraine's biggest Aid Giver for the military so the tide is turning has it turned for the best for the for a long time I don't know but and then there's of course the whole mess in Crimea yeah absolutely um I want to come back to the response from Ukraine's Western allies in just a moment you highlight in your substack Diana a piece by Mark gallotti in the times recently in which he points out that Russia's military failure also upsets ordinary Russians because it exposes the the regime's corruption and cronyism can you just expand a bit on that 9:00 well apparently the actual place where they breached the Border in ksk the ukrainians breached the border the uh the Russian government had spent allocated and contracted out I think hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Dragon Teeth trenches Minefield whatever to impede any possible Invasion and the ukrainians in 24 hours and they had troops there in 24 hours the ukrainians with German and American and British tanks blew right through that fortification and there was only one way that could have happened because they probably didn't do the work they pocketed the money so turning to the Western response do you think we will see what Ukraine is clearly calling for which is to be allowed to use Western supplied weapons to strike military targets inside Russia 10:01 the West has loosened some of those restrictions over recent months but not to the extent that Ukraine wants there is an argument that by invading KK it has shown once and for all that Putin's red lines are just a bluff but clearly the West has always been cautious about potential escalation do you think we will see movement on that front well I think that you know the this this incursion also as you say uh made mockery of his red lines also made mockery of his nuclear Armageddon Bluffs uh they just went ahead uh made mockery of you know threatening Germany and NATO they were part of it and so you know the king kind of has no cloes and and I think that's also very undermining for Putin I hope it is and I think all of that um is is G given wi behind the back of the the NATO allies and then 11:01 that's why you see Germany steinm says yes we're we're going to be we're going to remain the biggest you know contributor to military aid which they are to Aid of all kinds to Ukraine going forward so the Germans are finally starting to get it and um then you see some other movement that I talk about uh you see uh this cancellation of the big gas pipeline by Mongolia to China think that's kind of significant it happened just a few days after this so these kinds of things point to a very Grim economic future for Russia and that's why the rubble's collapsing it's probably also collapsing if Russian oligarchs and other players are getting out of the rubble quickly because they fac either a Cuda or continued weakening of the of the country just picking up on that point about China a lot of people have said that shiin ping is maybe the 12:00 only person with the power to pick up the phones of Vladimir Putin and say look call off the war in Ukraine what would it take do you think for Xi Jinping to make such a call when might China lose patience with Russia I I think for China it's very tricky they're playing a game uh and you know he he's I don't see him actually trying to do that they did pitch a peace proposal but it was really basically drafted by the Russians uh watch Modi India Modi he's also in motion he's do trying to do damage control because he met with Putin during the and he didn't he snubbed the NATO meeting and he met with Putin and he hugged him and you know it was it was really disgusting and so he just announced after Kur that he was going to go and do a summit with zalinsky and Keith the day before their independence day on Saturday so that's very significant and he is rumored the rumor is he's going to try and broker some kind of peace deal I 13:01 don't know if he can or will um it all depends on Russia is Russia going to be amenable to this uh you know Putin does still have the final say well on that I mean you say in your substack piece that the recent prisoner swap between Russia and the West has raised concerns with some people that inside Russia that that Putin is fearful that Trump who he clearly wants to win in November may not win in November that he's fearing for his position why do you think that prisoner swap suggests that well I first of all I thought it was really strange uh I I was I I was pleased I thought it was a sign that they want to be diplomatically not capitulate but be diplomatically open to doing an arrangement or a negotiation so that proved that they weren't just shutting the door to any kind of uh negotiation with the West a b the nature of it the the you know disproportionate gain 14:01 to the West they got 24 people back including High the highest profile prisoners and the Russians only got 10 back that seemed to me a you know a sign of capitulation in a way and the fact that that gave a huge boost to Biden and Harris leading up to a election that you got to believe Putin hopes Trump will win because Trump says he'll fix it in no time which is nonsense but still so it looked to me a a kind of a not desperate but the beginnings of uh capitulation and I think therefore a good sign because look I don't want Ukraine to have to keep killing its people uh you know in to try and overthrow Putin so we we gotta hope that something's going to happen but uh China and India are are conflicted they're getting cheap oil and they're selling arms to Russia they're actually accomplices and they're 15:01 getting away with it in the west because we need them too so you know that's that's the big big nut to crack as you say if China picks up the phone or says anything more publicly and India tries to broker a peace deal when he visits uh this week or next week then we're going to see a movement very quickly and Mr Putin may decide to announce his resignation for retirement I don't you actually think that is feasible you think Putin May voluntarily Stand Down uh if if it's life or death yes I think so but it had it's all it's all dependent on the people around him who have profited and kept him in power they have to say enough already you've done a lousy job of a stupid idea well we can't win they can't win but we can't win and we're going down the tube economically yeah H how do you think Vladimir Putin 16:01 will seek to reassert his authority clearly it's been a very humiliating few weeks for him will he look to I mean I think already he's trying to blame a lot of his generals who've been advising him and pass the buck um will he launch a fresh wave of mobilization or does that carry too many political risks for him what response do you think we will see well I didn't mention in the substack I should have uh what you say is very telling also why not mobilize they are they are sustaining unbelievable casualties in the field I mean the ukrainians even at the static front line are killing hundreds a day hundreds killing hundreds a day wounding hundreds more destroying tanks all kinds of stuff they are running out of armaments in their war machine at home and you know the fact that he hasn't said okay we're mobilizing means to me that he knows he dare not that that would be a strop that 17:00 would be a step too far that would really upset every mother and father in Russia because they know they're coming back in caskets they know that word of mouth tells them that and it's already a risk isn't it because you've got conscripts fighting in the Border territories including in K under Russian law you can't send conscripts to go and fight overseas so they're not fighting in Ukraine they were defending Russia now they're being captured or killed and so already that is a problem and a mass mobilization a fresh wave of mobilization would only exacerbate that absolutely he'd just be sending more Lambs to the slaughter and there is a lot of unrest particularly in the ethnic parts or you know the boonies if you like in in in Central Asia in uh in Siberia th those are the kids that are getting drafted and dying it's not kids from Moscow and St Petersburg the white slaves control an Empire that includes another hundred or so ethnic 18:01 nationalities who are really for all tense of purposes enslaved to Moscow so you know they're not going to rise up they're not organized they're not sophisticated enough but you know what there's been a couple of very major protests in some of these areas where the drafts the caskets have been ridiculously numerous and but Bashir is one bash gardan and so you know he's he actually he's not it's not a democracy but he can't just go ahead and do each and everything he feels like or needs to do so there is a push back there is a Russian voice of sorts and then there is of course the ruling class and they have the power to get rid of them and and from Ukraine's perspective Diane what what do you think we may see in the coming weeks and months I mean will they try and hold on to the territory they've captured in KK will they stage a tactical withdrawal at some point clearly they've had a very good few weeks and they've regained momentum but 19:00 they'll be wary of not overplaying their hand what do you think we may see well I think you're right about not overplaying their hand uh I think that the incursion uh gets them uh 100 kilometers closer to St Petersburg and Moscow missile distance uh I think also the fact that they've got now hundreds if not thousands of young conscripts as prisoners of war and probably a lot of civilians who Maybe they'll decide not to allow them to to evacuate uh Putin can't bomb it he can't bomb them to Oblivion he's not going to bomb K into Oblivion and so they kind of have a pretty safe situation to take pot shots which is what Russia's enjoyed through this whole War you know they've been able to shoot at Ukraine from Russia now the ukrainians will be able to shoot at Russia from Russia and that does change things a lot and the West seems to be you know more 20:02 and more on side Germany is key yeah I suppose that the big symol that Germany had fundamentally shifted would be if they provided tourist missiles do do you think that's at all feasible we'll see we'll see uh you know it it the problem is Ukraine can't win and neither can Russia at this point and so something is going to Happ have to happen politically in Russia for this to to change the uh the situation I'm afraid and that may may require more patience but the ukrainians have patience they have backing those state-of-the-art weapons are now disseminating their conscription mobilization efforts are working tens of thousands of young people have joined despite the dangers and uh they're they're Resolute they they will not be slaves of Russia ever again just to pick 21:01 up on that when you say Ukraine can't win I mean I suppose it depends how you define winning what makes you say that I I say in terms of Manpower and just that sort of Brute Force they can't win but they're not losing either and Russia can't win given its enormous number of soldiers in the Ukrainian I mean they haven't moved much uh they they initially grabbed a bu of territory when it was a big surprise and Ukraine didn't even have much of an army then Ukraine mobilized and got back 50% of what was taken in 22 and they haven't moved much at all despite the fact that they have I don't know 600,000 troops inside Ukraine and they've had one mobilization and another half of one they just can't move the dial they also have been unable to defend Crimea or their big naval base in sevastopol and sort of handmade drones from Ukraine have driven them off that 22:02 strategically critical Peninsula which is also of historic importance to Russia so you know they're just they they don't have a good army it's mediocre it's terrible and that's not surprising the generals are probably appointed because you know they're friends of friends and they're probably uh stealing a lot of the money that should be going to their troops and into equipment so it it's it's a corrupt House of CTS that should fall and just finally Diane do you think when we look back on the war in Ukraine in years to come we will say that August 2024 was the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin I hope so I hope so I I hope so um I I will air on the side of optimism I'm very optimistic I think this is a turning point because it's psychological now it's changing the psyche of the Russians themselves and and the people that prop him up and and economic Market Global 23:03 markets so I think that you know they're they're they're doing the right thing and um but Putin is could also be a rat in a corner at some point and do something unspeakable which would of course invite the Unspeakable back on his head Don FR say really appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on front line

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