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US POLITICS HARRIS HAS GOOD POLL TRENDS Times Radio: Why Trump is struggling against Harris \| The Story PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFJk20D6n74 Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Why Trump is struggling against Harris \| The Story Times Radio 917K subscribers Aug 19, 2024 As the Democratic National Convention begins today, the Harris campaign is riding a wave of momentum. Why has Trump struggled to find a foothold? This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today: http://thetimes.com/thestory Guest: Josh Glancy, News Review Editor, The Sunday Times. Host: Manveen Rana. Clips: The Editors podcast, The Guardian, CBS News, The Daily Show, MSNBC, Forbes, AP, Fox News, Sky News. Further reading: America's No 1 pollster Nate Silver on his US election bets Get in touch: thestory@thetimes.com Find out more about our bonus series for Times subscribers: 'Inside the newsroom' Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:02 from the times and the Sunday Times this is the story I'm manv rner so I went back the other day a couple of days ago and listened to one of my favorite conservative podcasts called the editors it's done by National Review Donald Trump speaks and speaks and speaks some more Joe Biden ters and JD Vance arrives we'll discuss all this more on this edition of the editors I'm rich and I went back and listened to the Pod they put out just after the RNC the Republican National Convention and the tone was astonishing Charlie I've been here in Milwaukee all week I will say it's it's the most unified and upbeat convention I've ever experience the discussion then was is this race over and they felt that Biden who was then still the Democratic nominee was dead in the water that Trump Trump could 1:00 sweep a landslide I was at an event yesterday where a a really well-placed Trump person who's going to have a a high level position in in the white house there's no doubt about it was just saying there there's a spirit you know God is looking over Donald Trump and looking over what we're doing here and everyone in in the room absolutely uh believes [Music] that you felt then this thing is not over over but Trump's way ahead the polls had him way ahead and a sense that all the momentum and energy was with them and so it's remarkable really that here we are barely 4 weeks later and it's almost a completely different perspective from which we're looking at the race 4 weeks and a dizzying new cycle 2:01 later the race for the white house looks completely different as camela Harris's campaign rides on a wave of momentum Donald Trump seems to be fighting to find a [Music] foothold the story today why Trump is struggling against Harris [Music] 2:34 my name is Josh glancy I'm editor of 2:36 News Review at the Sunday Times prior to 2:39 that I was Washington correspondent and 2:41 New York correspondent and I covered 2:43 both the 2016 and the 2020 elections so developed a sort of bit of a master's thesis in all things Donald Trump and Josh we spoke to you just four weeks ago about Donald Trump and about his pick for the VP it does feel like a lot has 3:00 changed since then namely the Democrat ticket that the person he's going to be up against things seem to be going better than anyone even the Democrats had expected for camela Harris yeah I would I would uh before we delve into Camila Harris I would just say the speed 3:18 of this new cycle is unlike anything 3:19 I've ever encountered before I was there 3:22 for some of the 2016 2017 news Cycles 3:25 when Trump fired FBI director James 3:28 Comey or when James Comey announced his 3:31 investigation into Hillary Clinton's 3:32 emails the Russian hacks I mean there 3:35 were some pretty dramatic moments 3:37 nothing has come close not even the 3:39 westwig sort of fictional television 3:41 series about the American presidency has 3:43 really come close to what we saw play 3:45 out in July uh with the attempt at 3:48 assassination and then Biden stepping 3:49 down in consecutive weekends so it 3:52 really is astonishing you do have to pinch yourself at times it's a weekly Cliffhanger it's like a season finale every other day quite and then what happened next also was astonishing and 4:01 happened at rapid speed which was Harris 4:03 was anointed before we could even blink 4:05 and Democrats rallied around her in a 4:09 quite astonishing way there was a real 4:10 sense of catharsis for 4:12 thema hello hi hey there a hi you're 4:18 both together oh it's good to hear you 4:21 both I I I can't have this phone call 4:23 without saying to my girl kamla I am 4:26 proud of you this is going to be be 4:31 historic I think she stands with the 4:34 real possibility of winning this 4:35 election and maybe winning it with a big 4:39 vote we call to say Michelle and I 4:42 couldn't be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office a different messenger uh a different style a different approach and people are clearly really fired up and excited about it I know I am clearly there was a lot of pent up energy and that has been released and 5:02 it's been amazing to watch and I think 5:03 it has taken everyone a little bit by 5:05 surprise and she is in some ways being 5:08 painted as the female Barack Obama as 5:10 the face of a new diverse 5:12 forward-looking 5:14 America and they've got a candidate 5:17 [Music] 5:18 again and suddenly the other guy looks 5:21 old we've seen him before you know that 5:23 famous Old Line there are no second acts 5:25 in American life I think it F Scott 5:26 Fitzgerald uh suddenly you wonder well 5:28 hang on is does they want to go 5:30 backwards and the Harris campaign's been very good at capitalizing on that energy and one of their taglines is we are not going back these extremists want to take us back but we are not going back we are not going [Applause] back and like we all know we're not going back 6:01 they are very good with those taglines 6:03 with the the attacks on Trump how is 6:06 Trump responding to Harris though this 6:10 is not the election he was expecting I 6:12 think you can sum up Trump's response in 6:14 one word which is 6:16 sulking um he is furious he's been very 6:21 rude about her behind her back in 6:23 private I should say calling her all 6:25 sorts of nasty things he feels like he's 6:28 been cheated 6:30 and this has become a source of great 6:32 upset for him he feels like he was 6:34 already to beat Biden he had his plan he 6:37 had his attack lines it was all sewn up and now he's got this new proposition and he's been unable to Pivot he hasn't had the kind of intellectual or mental dexterity to say okay this has happened this new energy this new force is arrayed against me what do we do instead he's been blaming people he's been complaining he's been arguing the toss 7:01 he keeps bringing Biden up again in 7:03 every speech as if that's the election 7:04 he wishes he was fighting it started 7:07 really with the debate it was all you 7:09 know the game was up they say the jig 7:11 was up and it was indeed up but it 7:15 started with that and then it only got 7:18 worse and we were leading him by 11 12 7:20 14 15 points and then he said decides to 7:23 get out because the bosses said we're 7:24 not going to have you he he didn't want 7:25 to get out but they told him you're 7:27 getting out he does doesn't seem to have 7:30 worked out an attack line that sticks for camela Harris she's got a new line you know she's going I'm the prosecutor she's one of the worst prosecutors in history she destroyed San Francisco I'm the prosecutor and he's the convicted felon or something that's their campaign I don't think people are going to buy it and we won our big case you know we won the case in florid no I mean he's tried lying camela but it's not really clear what she's lied about 8:00 I guess maybe she played a role in 8:02 people not being open about Joe Biden's 8:04 condition but I don't think it's really 8:07 stuck he's tried to tell us that she's 8:09 not really black yeah which he said to 8:13 the association of black journalists and 8:17 it did not well I just defined it sir do 8:19 you believe that vice president KLA 8:20 Harris is only on the ticket because she 8:22 is a black woman well I can say no I 8:24 think it's maybe a little bit different 8:27 so uh I've known her a long time 8:29 indirectly not directly very much and 8:33 she was always of Indian Heritage and 8:36 she was only promoting Indian Heritage I didn't know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black and now she wants to be known as black so I don't know is she Indian or is she black she has always identified as a black I respect either one but she obviously doesn't fundamentally I just think it it's such a massive turnoff for moderates for swing state voters people 9:02 of diverse backgrounds of whom there are 9:03 many in America to see that kind of line 9:06 they have dropped that I think uh they 9:08 did try for a couple of days to to get 9:10 that one going it's just bombed so yeah 9:14 he's been fumbling about for an attack 9:16 line uh and hasn't really got there yet 9:19 at the same time the Democrats really do 9:22 seem to have got their campaign going 9:24 not only do they have a new candidate 9:26 but they have some pretty effective 9:27 attack lines particularly the word weird 9:32 yeah the weird thing came from a Tim 9:35 woles interview the governor of 9:37 Minnesota who's now Harris's running mate and I think this interview is part of the reason he got the job really which is he he landed on this attack line well they're just weird they're odd guys Vance JD Vance and Donald Trump It's oddly effective it's yeah it is it's very playground isn't it you're a weirdo I don't think it's a particularly elevated form of politics frankly but we are where we are and it does seem 10:02 to have cut through because I mean 10:05 Donald Trump is one of the most bizarre 10:06 human beings I've ever 10:08 encountered Silence of the Lamb has 10:10 anyone ever seen a Silence of the Lamb 10:13 the late great Han Lector he's a 10:16 wonderful man he often times would have 10:18 a friend for dinner remember the last 10:20 scene excuse me I'm about to have a 10:22 friend for dinner is this poor doctor 10:24 walk by I'm about to have a friend for 10:26 dinner but Hannibal Lector 10:29 congratulations the late great Hannibal 10:31 look we have people that are being 10:33 released into our country that we don't want in our country I think a lot of people do find him quite weird and it just it's one of those you know it captures quite a lot in one word it's one of those things that sort of been normalized we'd all stop even noticing how weird he is until it's just pointed out in a very simple way I think that's a really good point I think it's just it served to remind us that as the old phrase that was used a lot in the first Trump Administration that this is not 11:00 normal and I do think a craving for 11:03 normality is the democrat's best bet in 11:06 this election and while Trump doesn't 11:08 seem to have got the perfect attack line 11:11 against CA Harris yet he also hasn't got 11:13 the perfect defense against the weird 11:15 description I think apparently he's been 11:16 telling donors that Democrats aren't 11:18 calling him weird they're calling JD 11:21 fans weird which is apparently somehow 11:23 better this is his candidate to be vice 11:26 president I mean is he regretting the 11:28 decision just take us back to four weeks 11:31 ago and what was his thinking in 11:33 selecting JD Vance yeah again I love the the saying how juvenile it is to say no it's not me it's it's the little little weener next to me it's all utterly playground isn't it but look I I don't think the Trump campaign you know is in dire straight by any means at the moment but you know if you go back to the decision of choosing fans that was done in a moment of great confidence one almost might say arrogance even huis 12:01 because Vance was never a big tent pick 12:04 normally you pick a VP to reach out to a 12:08 certain group to make nice to fortify 12:10 your coalition to bring in swing states 12:13 to bring in swing voters to appeal to a 12:15 certain demographic perhaps women 12:17 perhaps minorities whereas Vance was 12:20 always really about doubling down on 12:21 Maga he was a movement choice we were 12:25 talking a few weeks ago about how you 12:27 could see Vance taking over from Trump 12:29 and becoming his successor that he would 12:31 be the kind of standard Bearer for what 12:33 Trump has built he picked him mainly in 12:37 response to lobbying from his sons Eric and Don Jr who are ideologues they're part of that Maga movement and they they're personally friends with JD Vance and so it was a slightly hristic pick of someone who thought that he had an election in the bag and I I wouldn't be surprised I'm speculating here that the the sense of euphoria having survive someone shooting an AR-15 bullets at his 13:02 head uh probably made him did make him 13:05 think you know what screw it I'll choose 13:07 the guy who's ideologically loyal to me 13:09 I don't have to make nice with some 13:11 compromis candid you definitely feel 13:13 like luck is on your side 13:17 [Music] 13:23 certainly we've had four weeks now of JD 13:27 Vance really being introduced on the 13:29 national stage how's that been going I 13:32 think he had a few stumbles at first I 13:34 think it's been a pretty mixed bag 13:36 overall he made a very weird joke early 13:39 on about how drinking diet Mountain G 13:43 you know we'd get accused of racism or something and that bonds and he looked a bit uncomfortable he's just I mean you know having spent time with JD Vance he's quite awkward in his own skin he's quite big he can be a bit sort of almost feel like aort of lumbering bear at times s he didn't look entirely 14:00 comfortable on that stage but overall I 14:03 think he's he's done all right he's 14:05 quite good at putting a coherent spin on 14:09 some of the mental stuff that Trump says 14:12 being a kind of explainer and translator 14:15 translator exactly the biggest problem 14:17 he's had is something he said in 2021 to 14:20 Fox News host or then Fox News host 14:22 Tucker Carlson which was a comment about 14:25 childless cat ladies we're effectively 14:27 run in this country via the Democrats be 14:30 via our corporate oligarchs by a bunch 14:32 of childless cat ladies who are 14:33 miserable at their own lives and the 14:35 choices that they've made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable too and it's just a basic fact you look at kamla Harris Pete Budaj AOC the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children that obviously isn't something he said during the current campaign but it's been that hit him pretty hard early on and just describe the response there's been to that now that that's sort of resurfaced yeah I mean everyone from Jennifer 15:01 Anderson to Taylor Swift weighed in on I 15:05 guess the nasty seemingly sexist tone of 15:09 of those comments it really triggered a 15:11 very wide and quite angry response I'm 15:15 not asking you because it's making news 15:16 I'm asking you more because people are 15:19 calling me who very much would like to 15:20 support you and president Trump Dr 15:23 Connie rice does not have children 15:24 neither does my friend your colleague 15:26 Tim Scott George Washington did not have 15:29 biological children and neither did 15:31 James Madison so I think you will agree 15:34 with me that that direct offspring are 15:36 not necessary to be fully invested in the future of this country of of course not Trey I do think that being a prepare parent actually has a profound effect on somebody's perspective and we should honor and respect that but there are a whole host of people who don't have children for a whole host of reasons and they certainly are great people who can participate fully in the life of this country and that's not what I said TR the way he's 16:01 tried to explain it is by saying look I 16:03 wasn't having a go at people who don't 16:05 have kids obviously some people can't 16:06 have kids I'm saying that the Democratic 16:09 party has become 16:11 anti-am anti-child and its policies and 16:14 its posture are antithetical to the 16:17 family values I believe in that's sort 16:20 of half tracks I think the problem is 16:22 it's that it's the cruelty of the tone 16:25 and the language which is so unnecessary 16:27 and it speaks to the fact that he was 16:28 with Carlson he was showing off he was 16:30 trying to please base voters in Ohio at 16:34 the time he was running for the Senate and he spends too much time online where people throw insults around like that without a second thought but replayed on TV now that he's the Vice Presidential nominee it just seemed odd and nasty and I I I think it did him some damage and there have been other weird parts of the campaign I mean there's a strange rumor about a couch and and something about dolphin porn tell us about that yeah I 17:01 mean this stuff is again it has that 17:04 bullying vibe to it is getting very 17:07 playground at times and I'm not sure the 17:09 Republicans are concerned because they 17:11 have nominated Donald Trump who is the 17:13 OG bully we might say but the Democrats 17:17 used to say when they go low we go high 17:18 that was Michelle Obama's famous line 17:20 well that's not how it plays out anymore 17:23 they've been going pretty low so both of 17:25 these things are basically made up that 17:27 one is a someone liter made up an 17:29 allegation that sort of rumor that JD 17:32 Vance fornicated with a sofa and someone 17:37 else basically accused him of searching for Dolphin Port online neither's true and I think the people who do spend a lot of time telling us about misinformation and how much of a li of Donald Trump is should maybe not traffic in such rumors because there have been Democratic politicians spreading this stuff uh and I think it's pretty unseemly [Music] 18:08 [Music] 18:16 so Josh it's been a challenging few 18:19 weeks for the Trump campaign the 18:21 Democrats on the other hand have had a 18:23 few good news Cycles they've had some 18:25 stories out which have really given them 18:28 some momentum 18:29 how is that actually playing out in 18:31 terms of polling do we know if it's 18:34 affecting particularly those key swing 18:35 states where this election will be 18:37 decided so come as ahead Nate Silva the 18:43 poster of posters has or the Oracle Nate 18:45 Silva and you can read an interview with 18:47 him in this week's Sunday Times magazine by yours try but um Nate Silva has his model at 53 Harris 47 Trump so ahead but not out of sight by any means but that is a switch from the Biden days oh yeah 19:01 big time I mean as far as Silva was 19:03 concerned it was over for Biden 19:05 basically what's happened is a lot of 19:07 the undecideds in America have switched 19:10 uh lots of people have their choice 19:11 baked in but a lot of the undecided have 19:14 switched and we've seen some recent 19:15 polling from The New York Times that's 19:18 shown Harris four points ahead in all of 19:20 the three key blue wall states where was 19:23 Biden in those Biden was behind by the 19:26 time he stepped down he was about three 19:27 or four points behind by the time he 19:29 stepped down Harris is now Four Points up in each of those according to this one New York Times poll so again that's given how partisan the country is that's a lot of undecided voters switching and people as they say coming home to the Democrats people who'd sort of given up on Biden or were fed up coming back into the Democratic Camp you know four points is Again by no means out of sight it's just out of the margin of error which is usually three but it's good news particularly Pennsylvania and 20:01 particularly Michigan where there was a 20:02 lot of frustration over Biden's stance 20:04 on Gaza so that's a complete switch and 20:07 Pennsylvania has an awful lot of seats a 20:10 lot of yeah a lot of Electoral College 20:12 votes so they'll be feeling quietly 20:15 confident but you they've got the 20:16 Democratic National Convention coming up 20:18 so they can expect another Boost from 20:20 that be interesting to see what the 20:21 polls do after that but then there are 20:23 two months of hard real campaigning to 20:26 come and Trump May be able to regain his 20:30 balance should we say so still a long 20:32 way to go a long way to go yeah what do you think is driving you know the switching of votes is it just that people had no confidence in Biden they thought he was too old now they're suddenly licensed they can vote for the Democrats without worrying about Biden's age I think that's the vast bulk of it yeah I think Biden the moment he had that disastrous debate with Trump where he rambled and stumbled a lot of people watched that debate over 20 million I think and it was terrible and it was 21:03 clear that this guy couldn't do another 21:05 four years in the White House and it was 21:06 just it was very straightforward and 21:08 anyone who was denying that at that 21:09 point was lying to themselves so I think 21:13 that's the vast majority of it Harris is 21:15 a younger more Dynamic candidate so as 21:19 you say you have a license to vote for 21:20 her again and it shifted the energy back 21:24 in that direction and and there has been 21:25 this sort of proliferation of memes this 21:27 huge kind of online energy behind Harris 21:30 there was the whole rather regrettable 21:32 kind of brat summer situation which were 21:34 now thankfully passed but um you know 21:37 there was not a fan 21:39 Josh don't get started um it it was this great excitement but and here's where would caveat it it's not really based on substance yes she is younger than Trump yes she is a fresher face than Trump yes she's less weird than Trump one might say but she hasn't really got a particularly 22:00 good track record so there is a chance that gravity reasserts itself on Harris over time because there are bigger hurdles ahead in terms of proving to the country that she's ready for the big job she has had this great Philip of support this great sort of sense of momentum from being the new person who's come in for Trump though he sees this almost as a conspiracy why does he think she's doing so well well I think he would attribute a lot of it to me media bias really and to the thumbs of power being sort of put on her side of the scales there has in fness to Trump there has been quite astonishing media rally not all the media obviously but but a lot of the big mainstream media institutions in America which do lean liberal have rallied around Harris to quite an astonishing degree I think there was a cover of New York Magazine that was carelot which is obviously a reference to JFK's Camelot um this is quite excitable stuff and I think it's reasonable for them to point that out 23:01 but you're at a certain point you're just arguing the toss we know that these institutions favor the Democrats Republicans have their own conservative media yeah I mean universe and Tu Carlson fo news truth social Trump's own platform this is all and X for that matter now is is by no means biased against them anymore because of you Mass control of it so at a certain point you just have to play the hand your dealt I do also think that media agulation will wear off to some extent Harris has not given a proper interview yet journalists don't like politicians that don't give interviews true uh they do you know people the majority of them will want Harris to win so there's a a slight tension there but I don't think she can duck scrutiny all the way to November so there are less than 80 days to go until the election at this stage what do you think Trump and his campaign can do to try and reverse that momentum um I mean 24:03 is there any chance they ditch their VP and find a new one or what what what are the tactics they should be looking to I think it would look pretty drastic to to ditch the VP and I I I don't think he's that much of a disaster that that they really need to do anything like that the argument you hear from Republicans I've spoken to and from the what you might the sort of oldfashioned Republicans is that they need to run an old-fashioned Republican Campaign which is she's too liberal she's soft on crime she's soft On the Border she's soft on cultural issues like the trans issue she's going to come and steal your guns or that she's going to take your taxes and spend them all on useless entitlement programs and these are well-worn talking points but she is quite liberal she does have a faulty record on the border she's criticized the Border enforcement agencies she's criticized policing in America she's come out of liberal cnia where she was admittedly quite a tough 25:01 prosecutor but there is there is a clear attack line on Harris that's waiting to be skied down if you like but Trump doesn't seem to have the discipline or the wherewithal to do it at the moment he's kind of blowing it as the Wall Street Journal said the other day whereas I think if he can regain his balance I think it will be a really really tight race as you said at the start it has felt like the last few weeks have just been one crisis one Cliffhanger after the other still a way to go what are the potential stumbling blocks what are the potential moments we should be looking out for well we have the DNC this week of course which will be obviously a coronation and a moment of celebration for the Democrats we then have a debate schedule for the 10th of September which Trump has undena about but agreed to which is going to be really interesting I mean he's been in this environment more than she has she can come across as a bit inauthentic and insincere in debates he can often look 26:00 quite hectoring and bullying and menacing particularly towards women you remember the famous when he sort of walked across the stage towards Hillary Clinton in 2016 and behind her very a very odd moment one of many so that will be a really interesting moment I think everyone will want to tune in for that debate Harris will have to give some big setpiece speeches she probably will have to do some interviews there's Jeopardy for her there and then there's what Donald ramsfeld called the sort of unknown unknowns I mean who could have predicted some of the things that have happened in the last few weeks so who knows what drama might be coming our [Music] way that was Josh glancy News Review editor for the Sunday Times an oracle on all things Vance and Trump do have a look at his fascinating interview with the other Oracle Nate Sila in the Sunday 27:01 Times magazine we'll put a link in the description to this podcast this episode was produced by Taran seagull the executive producer was Fiona leech and sound design and theme tune were by maletto if you have any thoughts on what you've just heard or any ideas for subjects you'd like us to cover in the future then do drop us a line to the story at the times.com and if you enjoyed this episode do leave us a review where wherever you get your podcasts thanks for listening see you again soon [Music]

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