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Date: 2025-08-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027232

THE UKRAINE WAR GENERAL HODGES ON THE KURSK INCURSION Times Radio: Putin’s ‘slow, chaotic reaction’ shows Ukraine will sustain Kursk incursion \| Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uQkFKLiomA Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin’s ‘slow, chaotic reaction’ shows Ukraine will sustain Kursk incursion \| Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges Times Radio 911K subscribers Aug 15, 2024 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security “We have been underestimating Ukraine from the very beginning. It would not surprise me if they were able to do this again.” Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges reacts to Ukraine’s incursion in Kursk, Russia. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Ben Hodges ... United States Army officer (born 1958) Times Radio Transcript 0:00 I think we um have been underestimating Ukraine from the very beginning uh it would not surprise me if they were able to do this again but of course that'll be driven by opportunity um it'll be driven by um how how they judge the effectiveness of the current operation hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I'm James Hansen and today we're talking about the latest on the war in Ukraine and Ukraine's incursion into the KK region of Russia and I'm delighted to be joined by one of our favorite guests here on front line liutenant General Ben Hodges General Hodges served for 38 years in the US Army commanding in Iraq and Afghanistan and was commander US Army Europe from 2014 to 2017 General Hodges always a pleasure welcome back to front line thank you very much for the privilege well this week of all weeks it's great to get you on the program what is your analysis of Ukraine's incursion into the Cur region so far well of course we don't know the objective of their incursion in fact we we don't know what to call it is it an 1:01 incursion is it an ER raid is it an invasion or a new offensive but regardless we're not entitled to know the objective and so any analysis is going to be some speculation uh for me three things really stand out um this uh operation by the ukrainians has caught Everybody by surprise including all of all of us U not only the fact that it happened and and where it happened but how successful it has been thus far um this I think is a result of good analysis by the Ukrainian side they were able to pick places where they thought they could achieve some success but also where they could achieve some really fact um against Russian uh infrastructure both rail as well as their energy infrastructure um and against Russia's ability to launch drones from that region so that's that's one thing that that stands out for me the second thing 2:00 that stands out for me is they have somehow figured out a way to degrade or neutralize Russian drones uh by creating it seems like some sort of a a counter drone bubble that enable them to move a lot of troops a lot of vehicles deep into Russia where in the past couple of years most of them would have been destroyed early on uh once they revealed themselves so it kind of challenges is the narrative that somehow uh drones give total transparency over the battlefield there's no way that armored vehicles can operate anymore that that's obviously not true either due to Russian incompetence or Ukraine's ability to protect and conceal that the the third thing that really stands out for me is the Russian reaction um it's been slow somewhat chaotic um as all always when 3:00 you don't have clearly defined command and control who's responsible and here in this area you've got a mix of Border National Guard uh FSB and regular army uh and local authorities and it's not clear who's responsible and so the reaction is unsurprisingly uh been somewhat chaotic and of course the Kremlin is seeking to minimize the effect characterize it as a terrorist operation uh and they they don't trust their own generals with good reason so those those are three thing three of the things that really stand out for me thus far I want to come back to the Russian reaction in a moment it's interesting you said General that obviously we don't know what the objective is from a Ukrainian point of view but just to invite you to speculate what do you think it is I mean I've heard different theories some people say it's about diverting troops Russian troops away from the front line in the East other people say it's about just regaining the initiative and other people saying it it's actually a message directed at Ukraine's Western allies to go look we can if you back us we can take the fight to Russia and we can win this and your 4:02 fears of escalation are unfounded so I think every every one of the effects that you just uh described are accurate these are in fact effects that we are seeing both uh I think the the the fact that my government the US government the British government and the German government have not um been calling for restraint or telling Ukraine hey you can't do this um Stand Fast the fact that we have still not lifted our restriction on Ukraine using the longrange atacam uh inside of Russia unfortunately and and then frankly I was disappointed to see your prime minister also uh limit or restrict the use of Storm Shadow as part of this nonetheless nobody's calling for restraint like hey you got to pull back that's that's a good thing and I think exactly as you say it does give lie to this um narrative that somehow Russia is going 5:00 to escalate use nuclear weapons and this is this is a an operation into Russia land forces and they haven't done it and I think they never are going to do it so we should stop self-d deterring ourselves why has the Russian response been so slow and does it surprise you that here we are over a week into the incursion Invasion call it what you will and Ukraine has been able to so far it appears consolidate the territory it's taken I think that the um the very slow response is due to three or four factors first the the Russians were caught by surprise even though as I have read in open source that uh the general staff was beginning to see indicators of some sort of a buildup something was going on uh but as always has happened in every major strategic surprise uh involving US forces going back to Pearl Harbor we don't believe leave what we're seeing because it 6:01 doesn't fit what we think should be happening and so um if that's the case then you will have um you'll achieve surprise we I think that the Russian general staff was seeing things but it didn't fit what they believe should be happening or they couldn't believe that Ukraine was actually capable of doing this and so they didn't believe it so that that's part of it then the the second part of course is um look I was in the Army for a long time it is hard to move a lot of troops real fast um in contested space when you don't you w't have it planned for it I mean it's not like they have a line of buses and trucks just sitting around waiting to be moved when you've got to gather up forces from somewhere and start pushing them towards to as part of some sort of joined up Counterattack so I would imagine uh that this is one of the challenges I mean even with a very good logistical system system it will take 7:01 time to Marshall enough troops to have real effect and it's not likely that they would have had a lot of artillery or rocket launchers just sort of sitting around deep inside Cur in case something like this happen so it's going to take them a while and and fortunately they they don't appear to have a clearly defined chain of command for who's responsible for this operation the FSB will be brutal and ruthless but they also were not organized organiz to run large scale military operations all the things involved so I think these have contributed to uh some of the slowness and in the chaotic response I imagine also that they are having to look real hard at I mean you always have to think how serious a threat is it I mean that would be a reasonable thing for the the Russian general staff to do to try and assess is this something that requires us to pull forces from somewhere else or is this something that is literally 8:00 going to run out of gas and momentum and it'll it'll solve itself everybody needs to stay cool so it could be some of that um and I think they're also must be considering the risk to their own energy infrastructure you know the large gas Hub there as well as a nuclear power plant that's not too far away um they will have to take this into consideration as they plan whatever sort response they're going to launch when you're on defense General how much does the quality of your troops matter a lot has been made of the fact that some of the people fighting on the front line in Ukraine for Russia are convicts are migrants they're poorly trained they're being fed into Putin's meat grinder I suppose you can get away with that when you are on offensive operations when you're defending territory does that matter more the quality of your troops that's an interesting question um I don't don't know that I would 9:01 divide uh or separate quality between offense and defense um you obviously you always want to have well-trained disciplined soldiers they can carry out their task whatever they are and in the defense it's not just about digging ditches it's about putting in mines and obstacles it's about U preparing your artillery and Rockets uh to go against the attacker and uh it's about discipline concealment all of all of these things are part of it so um certainly you could if I mean if you're desperate and you're trying to stall things until you can get a more joined up response I could imagine them using people the way you just described as what we would call a stop Gap measure um over time it's really going to matter are the ukrainians what's really going to matter is are the ukrainians able to maintain the momentum uh and to coordinate their 10:01 artillery and drones and ground operation yeah what do you think we will see from Ukraine in the coming weeks it appears as if the pace of the advance into Russia has slowed significantly in recent days will their priority be to consolidate the land they're taken or do you think it's feasible they may drive further into Russia this is where um it's important to try and understand what is their objective if the objective was just to uh deliver a blow humiliate the Kremlin demonstrate that they still have capability and all these other things and to cause disruption then they may say in another three or four days okay we've we've done what we wanted and now we're going to do a conductor withdrawal back to um where they were before um I don't know that they intend to hold this terrain for an extended period of time that would that would require extensive engineering operations I think this is probably where they're judging are they achieving the effects that they wanted to achieve whether it 11:00 was to draw off forces from somewhere else um that's that's what will drive I think their uh analysis of how long to stay what comes next of course you know some people have speculated um that this is about um preparation for future negotiations that you know they're going to hold this and say okay what you know part of the settlement will be we will withdraw from KK when you withdraw from dbass for for example just to bring you some some breaking news we've had as we've been filming General uh President zilinski says that ke's troops have now captured the Russian town of suja in the KK region it's the largest that Ukraine has claimed control over so far at a pre-war population of over 5,000 people so the largest so far but it's still a relatively small town but significant nonetheless and I suppose that plays into the point you make there about whether this is designed to strengthen Ukraine's negotiating hand in any possible future peace talks what is your reading on that so uh I believe that 12:02 suja is where this massive gas Hub is is located in in that region there and so um I would imagine most of the people that work at that gas Hub um are are in that region so this this will have could have depending on how the ukrainians play this uh economic impact uh a lot of the gas that goes into the EU passes through here um so I obviously I'm not an exp ERT on this aspect of things but this this will be a part of the calculation by the ukrainians what do they do there as well as um as well as on the Russian side and how will you I suppose again this does depend on on what Ukraine's objective is but how will Ukraine judge the success of this operation if they're able to hold this territory for a month is that a success if they lost the territory they'd captured tomorrow is it still a success because of the message it send to the Kremlin um well the first thing you said is exactly right we we can't judge if it's a success if we don't know what 13:01 they were trying to accomplish but for me from my perspective if it changes the narrative all these doomers out there that are saying oh my God there's no way Ukraine can win Russ it's inevitable that Russia's going to win um and the doomers who are constantly finding fault with everything that Ukraine does uh if this shuts them up that will be a success uh the fact that Russia has not retaliated in some sort of escalatory way because they can't um I think also should help give our leaders confidence that um the uh we should be supporting Ukraine with everything that they need I mean if it's true and I think it is if it's true that um tanks provided by Germany and UK uh and other armed vehicles are actually involved in this operation obviously these are Ukrainian armored vehicles but there were people who were weding themselves at the idea that a German leopard or a British Challenger uh might be cause for 14:03 escalation I mean it's ridiculous thinking but that's how some people were thinking about this hopefully this will um change that narrative and then finally um the the idea that now that everybody has drones it's impossible to conceal anything it's impossible to move Ground Forces it's just not true I mean from the history of warfare over 3,000 years I think Michael Clark told somebody yesterday hey read a book there's three ,000 years of military history out there um every time somebody gets a capability the other side gets a new capability to counter it I mean that's the way it works and and so it's not a surprise that Ukraine may have figured out a way to counter Russia's drone Advantage do you think it's feasible we may see further incursions by Ukraine along different stretches of the the Border well I would I think we um have been underestimating Ukraine from the very beginning uh it would not surprise me if they were able to do this again but of course of course that'll be 15:00 driven by opportunity um it'll be driven by um how how they judged the effectiveness of the current operation you know if you think back to what their grandfathers were doing uh during the second world war on the Eastern front of Soviets and the German Vermont both sides on these huge fronts it was not uncommon that somebody would launch a successful attack that would penetrate the so-called line and the best units were not bothered by this in fact they would see these as opportunity so I think it'll be interesting to watch and see do the Russians are they capable of mustering forces that could see opportunity here and um destroy this penetration which is what their grandfathers would have done um or do the ukrainians see opportunity to uh do this again in another place uh the whole point being to not not just recapture territory but also um to 16:01 change the momentum to to get the Russians on the back foot this is of course the largest crossb raid on Russia since the second world war how humiliating is it for Vladimir Putin well I I imagine um he is throwing um coffee cups around his office right now um aimed at aimed at people that keep bringing him bad news I I would imagine this is very difficult of course uh what what I've never been able to truly discern is how do the Russian people see all this I mean they how they get information is pretty controlled um but if you've got what appears to be over a 100,000 Russian civilians from the KK area are on the Move now you know as they begin to talk um about what's happening you know that that inevitably will get to the population in Moscow either because of relatives or however it gets there and um so we'll we'll see what sort of impact that has I think for 17:02 me uh one of the most important uh effects of this is Ukraine is now attacking airfields that are deeper inside Russia so in other words they've moved they've moved their line much further forward where even if they're using weapons of their own they're able to attack airfields from which the Russians were launching attack against Ukrainian cities I think yesterday or the day before was supposedly the largest drone swarm of drones on any airfields of the war that that is significant that that will not only degrade Russian capability but it also will force them to have to start moving further and further away complicating their own efforts to attack Ukrainian cities and again that strengthens the argument that Ukraine should be allowed to use longrange Western supplied missiles inside Russian territory do you think it's feasible that maybe the strategy of President 18:00 Biden and other Western leaders is that now is not the moment to announce that they are giving the green light for such actions that in the immediate wake of the incursion it would be seen as too much of an escalation against Russia but in a few weeks once the dust is settled they may move on this because they've seen what's happened with this incursion well you know James you and I have talked about this several times uh how frustrating it is that uh my government your government have not complet the German government have not committed to doing everything required to help Ukraine actually win I mean a lot of a lot has been provided to keep them in the fight but we haven't committed to helping Ukraine win to knock Russia back to the N 1991 borders if we would do that then um I think there would be none of these nonsensical policies about restricting well you can't do this or you can only do a little of this etc etc I think hopefully hopefully this will change of course in the United States 19:00 now with President Biden um having stepped aside not running for reelection I don't know the impact that will have uh on his thinking I don't get the sense that he's ready to loosen up now um so I I can't predict how this is going to go but I I wish they they would commit to helping Ukraine win that would that would improve Europe's security environment for decades if Russia were actually defeated she said think we may see a fresh wave of Russian mobilization off the back of this I mean if Putin is reluctant to divert too many troops in the front line in the east of Ukraine he's not left with that many other options maybe he has to look again at mobilization all right another great question you really should consider journalism as a profession um the um it seems to me that the Kremlin has been holding off this kind of mobilization that you describe because of the message that would send to the public and and I think the Kremlin is very very sensitive to what the public 20:02 thinks and does and how they might react and and how his oligarchs so people who actually keep him in power how they would react to that and so um if it's so bad that he has to do a a mobilization that touches uh so much more of Russia um that he would really have to good have a good narrative to accompany that announcement of why this was necessary um I was just reading earlier today about how the Russian Airlines are suffering because they don't have enough people to even serve as Pilots or flight attendants and they're canceling flights left in right well not a surprise they have their infrastructure has been um disrupted they're pulling people out of factories to go to the front line so at some point even Russia I mean has has a limit on their Manpower and as you say that's where the political risk comes for Putin because I think I'm right in saying under Russian law you can't use 21:00 conscripts abroad so they wouldn't be able to use conscripts in Ukraine but they could use them to defend Russian territory but if you've got say the young sons of middle class people in Moscow and St Petersburg fighting and dying on the front line to protect areas such as kers politically that's a huge risk for Putin yes I I would agree with you and it I believe uh they have so far managed to avoid pulling too many uh recruits out of the St Petersburg and Moscow Metropolitan regions they've because they didn't want to do that they don't want to have funerals you know going through town there so um at some point they'll have to make a decision and and of course the ukrainians will be completely alive to this of what the impact is and and how how that's playing out inside Russia and I think that will affect Ukraine's own processes now in that same vein of course Ukraine still has a problem that they have not solved fully solved yet and that's their own man situation they don't they don't have 22:00 a people problem they got millions of military age women and men uh but they still don't have the uh what we would call the institutional Army the the recruiting and training base required uh and and they don't have confidence of enough people that would be willing to allow their son or daughter or brother to actually join the army they don't they don't have that confidence yet so hopefully hopefully that will change after this just a couple of questions to finish off General first of all we should say of course the f-16s have now been delivered to Ukraine the first tranch of of f-16s how big a difference do you think they'll make well I think it will uh it will take time for us to really know how much impact it's going to have you know every uh every infantry Soldier loves air power we love knowing that there's friendly aircraft overhead that are keeping the enemy away from us as well as helping with uh uh support for ground operations and going after the enemy's artillery 23:01 and Rockets in the rear and destroying their Logistics all of these things um will have great effect in support of Ukrainian Ground Forces um but I think Ukraine will uh likely be very careful in how they build up confidence and experience with what they have the Russians of course will be looking for the airfields to be looking to knock these things down so it's going to take time to build up the experience necessary both in terms of their pilots and their ground support U to keep airplanes in the sky it's whatever it is it's going to be better than what they had before I just don't know how much better and just finally what are the key things that you will be monitoring in the next week or so as we track the progress of this operation in KK well I think the three things that we've talked about is Ukraine's ability to maintain momentum you know be looking for the buildup digging in of fortifications logistical build up are they able to 24:00 sustain what they have done so far trying trying to judge that uh watching the Russian reaction to this um do they do they try to wipe out the entire Salient or do they um just contain it for now because they're more interested in continuing their attacks uh in the eastern part of of Ukraine uh and then the third thing of course is watching for reaction from Western governments um hopefully we will even if it's not public even if we're making we we communicating to ke uh in uh quietly hey we're with you keep doing what you want to and and we will find ways to help you keep this going so I think those are three things that I'll be watching you know what's interesting James though and then then I'll shut up we have not mentioned the great Black Sea Fleet even once I mean the Russian Navy has been taken out of the equation they're they're not even factor in this war 25:00 anymore which is which is amazing when you think that I mean this whole thing really started because Russia wanted to control Crimea they needed it for to in order to um dominate the Black Sea and so uh the the loss of so much of the their capability uh turkey's continued enforcement of montro convention which has prevented Russia from bringing in new capabilities uh that Ukraine has changed CH the character of Naval Warfare without having a traditional Navy of course we're talking about in a specific set of circumstances in the Black Sea region U I think this this has been a critical part of Ukraine's overall success thus far very briefly a little bit more breaking news just to get your reaction to uh the US has said according to a White House security spokesperson they will now give Ukraine more Aid in the coming days John Kirby said the aid will be provided in additional security packages but he 26:01 hasn't provided any further details about how much the assistance is worth what is included in the package so that remains to be seen but your initial reaction to that well it's a plus whatever it is I I would imagine it's ammunition air air defense those kinds of things but um I don't know but at least it's a plus and and these these kind of things of course whatever is being announced it'll be weeks before it actually arrives probably so um you know the war is going on in places other than just course of course General Ben hod is it's always a pleasure thank you so much for joining us today on front line I always enjoy it James thank you

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