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FINLAND FINLAND SECURITY POSTURE The Military Show: Finland is Planning Aggressive Response Against Russia After This Happens PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4bgGwr3o7k Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Finland is Planning Aggressive Response Against Russia After This Happens The Military Show Jul 26, 2024 974K subscribers ...1,552,903 views ... 25K likes #themilitaryshow #MilitaryStrategy #RussiaUkraineWar Russia's aggressive moves in Europe have not gone unnoticed, with Ukraine and Crimea capturing headlines. But did you know Finland is also in the crosshairs? 🤔 In this video, we explore how Finland is preparing to counter Russia's hybrid warfare tactics. From joining NATO to boosting its military, Finland is taking a strong stance! 🛡️ Join us as we delve into the complex history between these nations and what the future might hold. 💪🇫🇮 #Russia #Finland #Geopolitics #HybridWarfare #NATO #Ukraine #Putin #Europe #Military #History #Conflict #FinlandHistory #EU #ColdWar #SovietUnion #Nordic #BalticStates #Security #Defense #RussianAggression #FinlandVsRussia #GeopoliticalAnalysis #Putin #HistoryRepeats #News #GlobalPolitics #Diplomacy #MilitaryStrategy #CurrentEvents #InternationalRelations #RussiaUkraineWar #EuropeanSecurity #RussiaFinlandRelations #NordicSecurity #HybridWarfareExplained #themilitaryshow SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/UMwVRGMi Transcript 0:00 Russia has spent much of the 2010s and 2020s pushing boundaries in Europe. We witnessed this in its 2014 annexation of Crimea, which saw it claim an enormous amount of territory from under Ukraine’s nose. Of course, the Ukraine War followed almost a decade later, with Russia having been embroiled in that conflict since February 2022. However, it’s a mistake to assume that Ukraine is the only target of Russian aggression. Several other countries, particularly those that previously fell under the Soviet yolk, have also started to feel pressure as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ambitions become clearer. Finland is one of those countries. Unbeknown to many, Finland has been the subject of a hybrid warfare campaign conducted by Russia for several years, with Putin clearly trying to push boundaries and exert his influence in the Nordic country. But Finland won’t take Russia’s constant prodding and poking lying down. It’s preparing aggressive action, especially after a series of incidents that have let the country’s leadership know that it’s a target for Putin. 1:00 That brings us to the main questions we’ll answer in this video: What is Finland planning, and why is it gearing up to potentially fight against Russia? Before we dig into the answers, it’s important to understand that Russia and Finland have a deep history of conflict that dates back to the 12th century. During that time, the country we now know as Finland was essentially a political vacuum that attracted the attention of its neighbors to the East and West. To the West, Sweden wanted to control the region, ideally to establish it as a territory overseen by the Catholic Church. In the East, Russia was eyeing the same patch of land for a similar reason; only it wanted to establish rule based on the tenets of the Greek Orthodox Church. Thus, the first wars fought over Finland involved Sweden and Russia, with the result being a peace treaty signed between the two nations in 1323. Sweden took most of Finland, though Russia didn’t leave empty-handed – the treaty at least gave Russia portions of east Finland. Still, Swedish rule pervaded for several centuries thereafter, marked by numerous cultural shifts. Though Finland adopted Swedish legal and social 2:01 systems, its people were never subject to full Swedish rule. They still had personal freedom, which laid the foundations for early Finnish culture to start forming in the mid-1500s. It was around this time that the Lutheran interpretation of Christianity began to spread around Europe, eventually replacing Sweden’s Catholicism. That reformation came to Finland in the middle of the 16th century, bringing with it the first Bibles written in the Finnish language. The country’s culture was becoming ever more established. But Sweden was still a major factor in its existence, which spent over a century between 1617 and 1721 extending its empire’s borders around the Baltic region as a consequence of Russia’s then-weakness. Sweden also turned its attention to finally establishing full rule in Finland during this period, appointing Swedes to many positions of high office in Finland in the process. But Swedish rule wouldn’t last forever. Russia has continued to harbor ambitions over Finland in the centuries since it signed the 1323 peace treaty with Sweden, with the 19th century finally delivering an opportunity to strike. Sweden, weakened considerably during the 3:04 early parts of that century, opened the door for Russia to invade Finland between 1808 and 1809. Finland became a Grand Duchy of Russia in 1809. Interestingly, this marked the first time that Finland was treated as a collective entity. Before Russia’s successful invasion, it was merely a collection of provinces – each with its own rules – that were loosely governed by Sweden. Now, as a Grand Duchy of Russia, it was essentially its own state. And with that new collectivism came the emergence of a truer Finnish culture. This was actually aided by Russia. Alexander I – the Russian emperor who served as Finland’s Grand Duke between 1809 and 1825 – essentially gave the territory autonomy. It was still answerable to him, though other Russian authorities couldn’t interfere. The Finnish language became more widespread, aided by a Language Decree signed by Alexander II in 1863 that made Finnish an official administrative language in the Russian Empire. Legislative work was enabled by the reconvening of the Finnish Diet 4:01 in 1863, with the country even building its own military thanks to the 1878 Conscription Act. Those good times couldn’t last. With the chaos caused by the Russian Revolution of 1917 came the declaration of Finland’s independence from Russia in December of that year. Though Finland and Russia didn’t go to war over this, the emerging Soviet Union was still determined to take control of the country. The opportunity arose during the buildup of tensions that led to World War II. The Soviet Union signed a non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany during that period. This pact contained a secret protocol that would see Finland – along with the Baltic states of Latvia and Estonia – assigned to the Soviet Union in what would essentially be a Europe that Russia shared with Germany. That pact was put into practice in 1939 when Josef Stalin and his Soviet army invaded Finland. The Winter War followed, with Finland managing to come out on top. But this marked a dubious period in Finnish history. Unable to get help from the West, Finland allied with Nazi Germany, in part because the Nazis declared war against the 5:02 Soviet Union in 1941. That decision meant that Finland was once again subjected to partial Soviet rule in the wake of World War II, with 10% of its territory being handed over to Russia as part of the Moscow Armistice. The 1948 Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance it signed with Russia also made Finland more dependent on the Soviet Union economically and politically, resulting in further isolation from the rest of Western Europe. Finland would remain under this indirect Soviet control for most of the 20th century. It was only the end of the Cold War that allowed the country to regain its full independence. Finland took advantage by joining the European Union in 1995. Nevertheless, Finland decided not to join NATO for a long time afterward. Why does all of this matter? This brief history lesson demonstrates the long-standing, and often confrontational, history that Finland has with Russia. It is a country that was subjected to the Soviet yolk almost as much as those that were officially part of the Soviet Union, and it has spent much of the last three decades attempting to strengthen its independence and its ties with Western Europe. 6:02 Russia isn’t happy about that. In fact, it’s likely that Putin considers Finland an illegitimate country just as much as he considers Ukraine to be the same. That’s the suggestion of The Atlantic Council, which published an article analyzing Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson in February 2024. In what essentially amounted to a warped history lesson as seen through Putin’s lens, the Russian leader claimed that Ukraine was an artificial state and dismissed the idea of a Ukrainian nation as an anti-Russian conspiracy. The Atlantic Council suggests that he could apply what it calls “the same bogus historical arguments” to invade other countries that have previously been ruled by Russia. Those countries, as you learned earlier, include Finland. And that brings us to what Russia is doing that appears to support these claims. It certainly hasn’t declared war. After all, Russia’s troops are tied up in Ukraine, and an attempt to fight a second traditional war with Finland at the same time could have disastrous consequences for Moscow. However, “traditional” isn’t the route that Putin is following in his approach to Finland. Instead, he’s engaging in what appear to be the early actions of a hybrid war that could 7:04 be setting Finland up for a future invasion. A hybrid war, as described by the NATO Review, is a “fusion of conventional as well as unconventional instruments of power and tools of subversion.” The goal of this type of war isn’t necessarily conflict, at least not on the level seen in Ukraine. Rather, the country waging this war aims to inflict damage by blurring the lines between aggression and peace, essentially creating an elusive war that the target nation may not even be aware exists. Russia has used several hybrid warfare tactics against Finland since the beginning of the Ukraine war. Each is designed to destabilize the country, perhaps in preparation for a future invasion if Putin’s “special military operation” is successful in Ukraine. Russia’s first tactic – overwhelming Finland with illegal migrants. At least, that’s the accusation that Finland levied at Russia in November 2023. The BBC reports that Finland’s Prime Minister – Petteri Orpo – believes that Russia has been helping migrants cross the 833-mile border between the two countries. This claim was backed up by other Finnish officials, 8:04 who claim the migrants are arriving at the border in cars before jumping onto bicycles so they can get across the border to claim asylum in Finland. Worse yet, Finland’s leaders believe this is all being done with the help of Russian border guards. The statistics they revealed seemed to support their allegations. Finnish border guards say they registered 89 crossings over two days between November 12 and November 14, 2023. The number for the previous four months was just 91. Interestingly, the composition of those illegal migrants also suggests a Russian influence. That’s according to Finnish border guard colonel Matti Pitkaniitty, who says that many of those who crossed were of Syrian, Iraqi, or Yemeni descent – all had arrived legally in Russia but were not yet approved for entry into Finland. The use of bicycles is also interesting as it exploits a loophole in Finnish rules that allow border crossings for cyclists. That loophole has since been closed, but, as Orpo said in the news conference in which he made the accusation, “It is clear that these people are helped, and they are also being escorted or transported to the border 9:03 by border guards.” In other words, Russia is allowing these migrants into the country with the express purpose of transporting them to Finland. The problem has only worsened since that 2023 report. In February 2024, Reuters reported on Finnish claims that thousands of these “third-country migrants” – migrants who arrive in Russia from another country before trying to get into Finland – are waiting to cross the border. That comes on the back of Finland shutting down all border crossings from Russia toward the end of 2023 amidst its accusations that the Kremlin is trying to funnel people into Finland. The report also shows that the numbers kept rising from November 2023. In fact, the full month saw more than 900 migrants attempt to claim asylum. Given that the BBC reports that only 91 people attempted the crossing in the four months leading to November 12, that means that almost all of those attempted crossings came in the latter half of the month. More evidence of a concerted campaign orchestrated by Russia. Finland sees this organized and illegal migration as part of a Russian hybrid warfare campaign. 10:01 Ultimately, this is designed to upset the peace and quiet of several Finnish towns, such as Hoilola, which Finland says will be disrupted by the immigrants Russia sends. For what it’s worth, the Kremlin denies all of Finland’s accusations. But that’s exactly what it would do in a hybrid warfare situation in which the goal is to create confusion and discontent. Assuming Russia is responsible, it will likely be happy that it’s forced Finland to step up its border patrols while investing in drones and similar equipment. Planned Finnish legislation may even allow the country to call on thousands of its reservist troops to stem the migration flow. All of these resources cost money and manpower, representing an excellent result for Putin. This isn’t the only example of Russia using its border with Finland to escalate tensions between the two nations. In January 2024, Russia officially terminated a border agreement it had with Finland that dated back to 2012. The decision came in the wake of Finland’s decision to join NATO, which had prompted threats from Putin that Finland’s actions would lead to “problems.” That agreement was designed to promote cross-border collaboration between the two countries. Russia 11:03 claims that Finland had already broken that deal, with Politico reporting that its Foreign Ministry summoned Antti Helantera – the Finnish ambassador – to tell him as much. According to Russia, “the confrontational actions of Finland against Russia and discrimination against Russians on the basis of national origin in the issuance of entry visas” was the cause of the decision. Again, we see hybrid warfare tactics at play. Russia’s decision to withdraw from the border agreement carries the not-so-subtle message that Russia and Finland aren’t friends anymore. Moscow has even managed to paint Finland as the bad guy in the situation. It mentions Finland’s refusal to allow Russians into the country as grounds for the termination while conveniently leaving out that the majority of those “Russians” are actually third-country immigrants Moscow is purposefully funneling toward the border. In truth, the agreement had been unofficially suspended since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. But Russia waited before making the termination official, using the time to weaponize migration until it reached a point where it could accuse Finland of breaking the agreement. Very clever. And, as Chatham House points out, 12:03 it’s a tactic that Russia has used before. For instance, the summer of 2021 saw Russia supposedly cooperate with Belarus to move Afghani and Iraqi migrants to the borders that Belarus shared with Poland and Lithuania. That move led to more physical conflicts, as well as protests by the migrants, that placed pressure on the two countries Russia targeted. Through this, we can see that Russia’s border games are part of a grander plan. They’re designed not only to force a country to dedicate resources to a problem it didn’t anticipate having to solve, but also to force division. As Chatham House points out, creating migration problems out of thin air for these nations allows Russia to deepen the migration divisions within the European Union, or EU. Essentially, the migrants are being used as pawns in a geopolitical chess game. Deploying them could allow Russia to create rifts within the EU, which would, in turn, chip away at the united front the organization’s members have presented against Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war. Fortunately for Finland – and the EU as a whole – Russia’s tactics have come to light. Chatham House says that the EU has not 13:01 only recognized the important role Finland has played in securing the group’s northern borders, but is actively supporting it through the current crisis. Staff, financial support, and equipment have all been offered as Russia pushes more migrants to the Finnish border, appearing to indicate that Moscow’s actions have simply deepened ties within the EU. That wasn’t the reaction Putin wanted. But he can still be satisfied with the chaos he caused. Besides, funneling migrants to borders isn’t the only hybrid warfare tactic he’s waged against Finland. There’s also the Polar Bear. In October 2023, a Chinese-owned container ship named the Newnew Polar Bear – along with a Russian cargo vessel called the Sevmorput – wreaked havoc in the Gulf of Finland. At least, that’s the opinion of the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation, which points out that both where in the area at the same time a pair of telecommunications cables and an undersea gas pipeline were damaged. The Newnew Polar Bear became the focus of this incident. It was tracked moving through the Baltic Sea and eventually arriving at Arkhangelsk with an important part missing – its port side anchor. That very anchor was discovered by the Finnish 14:04 National Bureau of Investigation lodged into the seabed near the damaged pipeline two days after the Chinese ship arrived in Russia. Was the damage done on purpose? Of course, the sailors of the Chinese ship say it wasn’t, but Finland was far from convinced. Two months of investigations followed, culminating in Finland declaring in December 2023 that all signs it found indicated that the Newnew Polar Bear had sabotaged the telephone cables and pipeline intentionally. As Finland’s Minister of European Affairs – Anders Adlercreutz – puts it: “I’m not the sea captain. But I would think that you would notice that you’re dragging an anchor behind you for hundreds of kilometers.” It’s a fair point, with further suspicions arising due to the Newnew Polar Bear heading to a Russian port following the incident, before immediately sailing back toward China. Adlercreutz claims that he can’t speculate on Chinese government involvement, though his words clearly suggest he suspects the supposed accident was a deliberate attempt at sabotage. Russia’s potential involvement is even murkier though, and one of the points of hybrid warfare. It’s entirely possible that China attacked the 15:03 telephone and gas lines via a container ship – allowing it to claim innocence by virtue of a mistake – and did so to help Russia sew further seeds of chaos for Finland. At the very least, Russia may have created another inconvenient situation that Finland had to clear up. Just as it’s done by funneling illegal migrants to Finland’s borders. By now, Finland appears convinced that Russia is conducting a hybrid warfare campaign against it. There’s been no direct conflict – yet – and everything Russia seems to be doing is obscured by a veil of semi-plausible deniability. But Finland sees through that veil, and it’s preparing aggressively for what it may believe is a coming war with Russia. The question now is simple: How? The most obvious answer is that Finland has finally joined NATO. That move had been open to Finland for decades, but it’s one that it avoided taking due to its desire to maintain military neutrality. Through that neutrality, Finland believed, it could at least maintain a cooperative relationship with Russia – as evidenced by the 2012 border agreement that has now been terminated – while maintaining its ties to the 16:03 West. That approach has been scrapped entirely. As of April 2023, Finland is officially part of NATO. Russia’s actions are the reason why. According to the country’s Prime Minister – Alexander Stubb – Finland’s decision to join was a “done deal” as soon as Russia invaded Ukraine. The BBC speculates that many Finns saw the writing on the wall, and that invasion reminded them of the 1939 Soviet invasion of their own country, which led to the Winter War. Finland doesn’t want to find itself in that situation again, which is why joining NATO now is such a good move. Doing so means it’s part of a collective force and that it’s protected by Article 5 of the NATO charter, which says that an attack on any NATO member’s territory is considered an attack on all NATO members. That alone may dissuade Russia from turning its attention to Finland after the Ukraine war concludes. Putin isn’t best pleased about Finland’s decision. Back in May 2022, he promised to take retaliatory steps “both of a military-technical and other nature” in response to Finland’s plans to join. 17:00 Perhaps the hybrid warfare tactics we see Russia employ are part of those steps. Regardless, Finland is now part of a multi-nation group that will support it directly if it ever needs to defend itself against Russia on its territory. Speaking of defending itself, Finland is far from a lame duck when it comes to military might. Though Global Firepower only ranks it 50th out of 145 nations as part of its Annual 2024 Power Index rankings, Finland is a surprisingly militarized nation. As the BBC estimates, the country’s military has a wartime strength of 280,000 members, with Finland also training 21,000 conscripts per year to give it a reserve force of 900,000 soldiers. That’s massive considering this is a country that has a population of just 5.5 million. Pub Affairs Bruxelles digs deeper into the Finnish military’s strength. It notes that Finland has around 200 German-made Leopard 2 tanks, along with about the same amount of infantry fighting vehicles and 613 armored personnel carriers. Throw in 682 artillery units and Finland brings a respectable 18:01 ground fighting force to NATO. The country also understands its own geography when it comes to naval war. Finland’s coast is jagged and difficult to breach at the best of times, with the country’s navy making that even harder with a focus on mine warfare. It has five minelayers in its navy, along with a trio of Katanpää-class mine countermeasure ships, indicating how Finland thinks a naval invasion of the country might go. Reuters offers even more details. It points out that Finland’s 682 artillery units are part of what the country calls “Western Europe’s strongest artillery,” and that they’re backed up by about 700 mortars and 100 rocket launchers. It also has 650 missiles and has committed to investing in more. Even its infantry is properly catered for, as Finland maintains enough firearms – including assault rifles, grenade launchers, and anti-tank weapons – to equip its entire reserve of 900,000 people. Add winter wear, gas masks, and night-vision goggles and you have a military that, though small compared to Russia’s, is extremely well-prepared. Speaking of winter wear, you also can’t disregard 19:02 Finland’s experience in cold weather fighting. If the Winter War of 1939 taught us anything, it’s that a small Finnish force is more than capable of fighting in cold weather to fend off a superior Soviet force. Chatham House notes that Finland’s resilience strategies should a similar invasion happen again are held in high regard. It says Finland would take advantage of its expansive forests and lakes to launch raids on Russian invaders, preventing them from reaching the country’s core population areas. In other words, Finland would play a vital role in holding up Russian forces if they attacked, giving the rest of NATO time to prepare collective defenses against Putin’s military. It’s also raising its military budget. That’s according to Reuters, which said in August 2023 that Finland plans to commit 2.3% of its gross domestic product, or GDP, to its military in 2024. That’s above the NATO recommendation of 2% of GDP, suggesting that the country is looking to both restock and improve in the face of Russia’s hybrid warfare. So, we see Finland strengthening its already impressive military and building ties with countries that could help it defend 20:03 itself with its decision to join NATO. But the Finnish response goes even deeper. The country appears to be actively working alongside the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Poland’s Center for Eastern Studies highlighted this collaboration in September 2023 when discussing how all four nations are building up their border defenses. In Finland’s case, that involves the construction of barriers – split into eight sections – across around 124 miles of its border. Each would be located on a permanent road border crossing point with Russia, as these crossing points lead to the highest concentrations of infrastructure and population on Finland’s side of the border. The cost of erecting these barriers is estimated to be around $380 million, with construction anticipated to wrap up in 2026. That news was a prelude to the May 2024 announcement that Finland, the three Baltic states already mentioned, and Poland had signed a joint agreement to work together to prevent Russia from circumventing EU sanctions. The agreement will see the five nations – which essentially 21:01 serve as the EU’s border with Russia – agreeing on ways to ensure uniformity in enforcing sanctions, as well as sharing information about what’s happening at their borders. While neither indicates a military build-up, both the construction of barriers and increased cooperation with neighboring states appear to be clear responses to Russia’s migrant tactic. The point of all of this is that Finland isn’t sitting back and allowing Russia to get away with whatever it wants. Through cooperation with its neighbors, it hopes to tackle border issues. Investment into barriers will do the same. And by joining NATO – as well as investing so heavily into its military – Finland is preparing itself for the possibility that Putin may follow up on his hybrid tactics with a full-blown invasion in the future. If he does, Finland will be ready. It’ll also benefit from the collective support of 31 other countries should tensions with Russia escalate. Still, Finland finds itself conducting something of a balancing act. It can’t show weakness to Russia because that would give Putin confidence that he could launch an invasion once the Ukraine war ends. But at the same time, Finland can’t afford to get too aggressive with its actions. 22:02 Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics are designed to muddy the waters and potentially allow Russia to paint Finland as a villain. That’s why Finland is building its military, joining NATO, and working together with nations that also have borders with Russia – all are defensive actions that set the stage for future aggression if it’s needed. But what do you think about Finland’s response to the hybrid warfare tactics Russia appears to be employing? Is the country rightfully preparing itself for the possibility of being one of Putin’s next targets? Or, are those very preparations likely to make it even more of a target, especially given Putin’s opinions on NATO? Tell us what you think in the comments and thank you for watching the video. Now go check out How Will US React If Russia Attacks Finland or click this other video instead!

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