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RUSSIA A SURPRISINGLY FRAGILE RUSSIAN DEFENSE Times Radio: Putin caught 'unprepared' as Ukraine launches attack on Kursk \| Frontline PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHHxO4Bv9u0 Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin caught 'unprepared' as Ukraine launches attack on Kursk \| Frontline Times Radio 906K subscribers Aug 11, 2024 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security “It's certainly embarrassing for Russia at the moment.” Ukraine launch a surprise invasion into Kursk, in a turn events that could prove 'embarrassing' for Putin, says say this weeks Frontline experts: Professor of transnational crime and Russian security affairs, Mark Galeotti RUSI Director of Military Sciences, Matthew Savill Former Royal navy officer, Rear Admiral Chris Parry English financier and political activist, Bill Browder The Times's Maxim Tucker 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Times Radio Transcript 0:00 I mean Vin kov who's this Russian hitman who was being held in prison in Germany there's a lot of attention on him some would say well why does Vladimir Putin care so much about just one Hitman it's not so much about one Hitman because let's face it kassov is unlikely to be taking any more soge outside the country whatever false identity documents they they give him it's rather that if you are expecting people to operate in dangerous situations and one of the side effects of the fact that so many Russian spies were kicked out of embassies you when they operated they had always operated with diplomatic immunity so if you were caught doing bad stuff the worst that could really happen is you just kicked out the country now though without having to rely on them they're using so-called illegals people who are under what's called non-official cover in other words they're pretending to be business people or tourists or or whatever else when they get caught they go to prison and I think this is the key thing it's that it's not about krasikov himself it's about for the future generations of kov Ops they need to be reassured that if you get caught don't 1:03 worry the motherland will not forget you one way or the other no matter how many hostages we have to take we will get you 1:09 back and does that partly explain the way Putin has reacted to this prisoner swap I mean in a similar way to Biden 1:15 and Harris being on the tarmac welcoming Evan garovic in Maryland last week you had Vladimir Putin welcoming vam 1:22 krasikov giving him a big hug making a big play of his return yeah absolutely course the 1:28 interesting thing is this hasn't actually had massive amounts of coverage in the Russian media it's not something 1:34 that they really want to to to make too big a deal of it with the exception of a couple of the more sort of tub thumping 1:40 patriotic tabloids but the point is to the audience that matters in other words as 1:46 I say the next generation of Spooks sabot and assassins they will absolutely have seen not only that they that these 1:52 people will got back but that they were given a high-profile welcome and almost certainly that the state will look after 1:58 them you know I I'd be surprised if amongst this current batch of spies we don't have someone else who becomes I 2:04 don't know a parliamentarian like the assassin who killed lenko in London or 2:10 or otherwise get some kind of high-profile goodie it is a way of saying that they will be rewarded as 2:15 well as saved and Putin's tactic of falsely imprisoning foreigners on 2:21 trumped up charges clearly that's something he's been doing for years is it a tactic he's been ramping up further 2:27 in recent years yeah absolutely I mean we've seen this and on the whole the 2:32 foreigners I mean there's obviously exceptions like Evan gershkovich but the foreigners who have been caught they 2:38 tend to actually have made some minor transgression of Russian law but what Putin ensures is that not just a book 2:45 but a whole volume of encyclopedias is thrown at him so that they end up going to prison in very uh usual euphemism is 2:52 austere circumstances and that makes them that much more of a a hostage for 2:58 negotiation so look we saw in the past me back in Soviet times from time to time there were occasions when 3:04 individual journalists tourists or whatever were grabbed precisely for this purpose but the scale and the blatant 3:12 way in which it's being done that is absolutely new and definitely is being ramped up which makes it also a key 3:19 thing to to to note and I say this as someone who has been banned from Russia so it wouldn't apply to me anyway but 3:25 nonetheless you know it is a dangerous time for westerners to be heading to Russia 3:30 there was a lot of speculation that this deal originally was intended to include Alexi naly being released and returned 3:37 to presumably Germany does the fact that obviously he died a few months back in that Russian prison before this deal 3:44 could be completed suggest that that Putin simply couldn't have stomached that that Putin's ego couldn't have 3:50 stomached seeing his arch opponent released yeah this is a tricky one 3:56 because look there's no question but that Putin is responsible nal's death the question is whether it was an actual 4:02 direct killing you know kill this guy now or whether it was just simply that he was put in conditions in which his 4:08 his body already weakened by the various poisonings at the hand of Putin's agents actually just just could not survive and 4:15 and and he died of of natural causes but in deeply unnatural circumstances now my 4:20 suspicion is actually it's the latter and I think in this case look naali was probably being dangled as a way of 4:26 trying to get the West to release kassov because that was clearly Putin primary objective whether he ultimately would 4:32 have gone ahead with that swap I don't know a classic Russian approach is the bait and switch that you start the 4:40 negotiations by offering something good to get the other side engaged and 4:45 excited by the Prospect and then at the last minute you say ah no for whatever reasons we can't actually also swap 4:50 Naval but I'll tell you what we can still go ahead with the deal or do you want to call the whole thing off and 4:55 then it's going to be on your head so look I mean it's very hard hard to tell but I I suspect that one way or the 5:01 other Putin would not have been letting Naval out again precisely because of the degree to which naal was both dangerous 5:08 and also had clearly got under Putin's skin does the prisoner swap have any 5:13 significance for the war in Ukraine mark it may it may prove to on a very 5:20 minor scale in the sense of the the fact that it actually was able to be successfully negotiated was indeed a 5:26 reminder that you don't actually have to like or trust the other side to be able to make deals 5:32 which are in a common interest so on some very small scale some people are 5:37 calling it a trust building exercise now I don't think unfortunately that we should be putting too much faith in in 5:43 that it all depends on what happens now but the Russians are certainly not 5:49 giving any sign that they plan to build off this into anything wider so look you 5:54 know it could prove someday in the future that the the kind of channels of communication which we used to negotiate 6:01 this could be used for some other purpose but as I say no evidence at the moment Donald Trump reacted to the deal 6:07 by implying that it was somehow a bad deal what is your response to that well 6:13 as far as Donald Trump is concerned any deal that he negotiates is a good deal and any other deal is a bad deal so we 6:19 have to understand this look I mean that there is no way of getting around the fact that this is also a political advantage to to Joe Biden which is why 6:26 presumably Trump is reacting the way he is and it's also interesting that the Russians did not hold off it's not like 6:34 they decided Well let's see if Trump gets elected then maybe we can do the deal then to give him an extra little 6:40 boost I think it is clear that from their point of view they a have no idea what's going to happen in American 6:45 politics like the rest of us and B ultimately they don't entirely trust Trump to actually come through with with 6:52 what he promises so I think from their point of view fine let let Biden have had the the momentary life like they 7:00 just want to get the deal sorted I want to come back to us politics and it's its significance for Vladimir Putin in a 7:06 moment but I mean just to play Devil's Advocate and I'm not for one moment suggesting it was a bad deal because look you know here at the Times Evan 7:12 gurovich is is one of our colleagues at the Wall Street Journal but that you could make an argument that by reaching 7:18 these kind of prisoner return agreements you are furthering Putin's business model as it were which is that you 7:24 falsely imprison foreigners on Trump up charges in return for some very nasty 7:30 people being released who had been imprisoned legitimately in the west is there an argument to be made there yeah 7:37 sadly there is look again like you I'm delighted for all of these people especially actually I would say 7:43 including the the dissidents many of whom really were under the the Western radar in many ways who have now been 7:50 brought out from behind the razor wire on the other hand if we look at it rather more bloodlessly in terms of the 7:58 Diplomatic and geopolitical strategy it's not only that it sort of empowers Putin to think that he can get away with 8:05 bad stuff it also plays unfortunately to his view that when it comes down to it 8:11 we in the west are lacking in resolution that no matter what tough rhetoric we 8:17 may be saying today we'll be willing to make a deal tomorrow and that essentially Russia's secret weapon is 8:24 its will is to another way its ruthlessness so in this respect un 8:29 fortunately although as I say I'm delighted by the deal but on the other hand there is a degree to which it does 8:35 empower Putin and we have to recognize this and I think it's a a good deal in humanitarian terms but a bad deal in 8:42 geopolitical ones let's talk about the US election how much will Vladimir Putin 8:47 and his allies in the Kremlin been be looking at the election race and be increasingly concerned by kamla Harris's 8:55 Rising poll numbers they clearly are are unsettled by that I mean I think they they did at 9:00 a certain point feel that the election was in the bag for Trump and although we shouldn't overplay the degree to which 9:08 Trump is not Putin's man or anything like that if we look at his first presidency or maybe his only presidency 9:13 we'll have to wait and see actually American policy towards Russia was tougher at the end of it than it had 9:19 been at any point since 1991 and so there there's no real belief in in in Trump but on the other hand 9:26 Trump is the Grand disruptor and if there's one thing that that Russian 9:31 policy towards United States and the West in general is it is about disruption it is about trying to break 9:36 apart the bonds of Alliance and common uh sort of purpose which at the moment 9:42 supporting the sanctions regime the continued support for Ukraine and and so forth but I think there is also a degree 9:48 to which the Russians whether it's just they're simply trying to look for Silver Lining but a seeing this as a bit of a 9:54 win-win if Trump wins wins then we can imagine a certain isolation turn within 10:01 American foreign policy much more Ukraine skeptical much actually more 10:06 European skeptical a good thing for Moscow on the other hand if Trump loses 10:14 especially if it's a close election race then there is this assumption that 10:19 basically there will be a period of massive disruption within the United States disruption which of course the 10:25 Russians will do everything they can to to uh amplify not that they actually have much impact but nonetheless they 10:31 they will do their bit so again there will be that sense that America will be disrupted even if if Trump loses so 10:37 obviously the Russians are watching this very very carefully but from their point of view they don't necessarily care 10:44 quite so much about who gets elected president they care much more about the 10:50 Essential Health and functionality of the American system overall and that really is clearly in a bit of a crisis 10:57 it's a really good point about their motor I to be to spread disruption and Division in societies rather than get 11:02 one particular political outcome I mean on that note we saw a couple of weeks ago the Arsen attack on the French rail network on the day of the opening 11:09 ceremony of the Paris Olympics and there's been a lot of speculation as to potential Russian involvement what is your take on that Mark well so far the 11:17 the French security and intelligence services are actually playing down the notion of any Russian involvement and 11:22 given the degree to which the Olympics is quite Central at the moment to their sense of self-image and so forth I don't 11:29 think that they would be going going quietly if they did think moscow's hand was there but again I think what what's 11:36 really interesting is clearly the Russians are carrying out this kind of attack it's very hard to say at the 11:41 moment whether they're behind this particular one but the very fact that there is this suspicion I mean part of 11:47 what Putin is trying to do with this campaign is not just simply genuinely disrupt the west and more or less say to 11:52 the West you think this war has no real consequences for you that you can just write a check every month to help the 11:58 ukrainians and War happen somewhere else well no this war is going to have implications for you whether it's in 12:04 terms of unexplained fires in your shopping centers or disrupting your your 12:09 transport network but the very fact that we're talking about is this Russia means we are actually doing precisely what 12:15 Putin would like we are building him up as a threat and this is this is the terrible dilemma in which we're in we 12:21 have to recognize the real threat we can't pretend that Putin isn't doing these things but on the other hand if we 12:27 see Putin's hand behind everything that happens then the risk is actually we make him seem far more powerful than he 12:34 really is we just have to try and find that that middle line between the two how will Putin be viewing events on the 12:41 front line in Ukraine at the moment I mean Russia have made incremental gains throughout their summer offensive but 12:47 maybe not to the extent that they would have hoped earlier in the year given the issues that Ukraine has had with its own 12:52 mobilization and also delays in Western military aid and the Russian casualty rate is still extremely high how he be 12:59 viewing the situation I obviously it's very difficult to try and crawl into the dark 13:04 recesses of Putin's own perceptions especially because we don't really know 13:10 just how honest and accurate the reporting that he's getting from his own people is but generally speaking I mean 13:17 what is clear is that yes the Russians have made advances through the year and continue to make advances and probably 13:23 will continue but then this that was always going to be the case this was always going to be the year when in some ways the Russians had the whip hand they 13:30 had more Personnel to throw in they had more artillery ammunition to be able to use and the ukrainians didn't yet have 13:36 for example the F-16 Fighters which are just now beginning to come into service and so forth so the issue is exactly 13:44 were not were they're going to make advances but were they going to make sufficient advances and I think when it 13:49 comes down to it I think that there will be a degree of disatisfaction 13:54 pleasure that they have made further moves they certainly are closing in on this key city or town of chesa um but 14:02 but dissatisfaction that they haven't done enough because next year almost certainly it will be the ukrainians who 14:08 will have the initiative and we'll see a Ukrainian counter offensive and so the question is the Russians can they hold 14:14 on to what they've gained but the bottom line is the Russians are nowhere near 14:19 being able to impose the kind of political solution that they would like on on Ukraine taking a village here 14:25 taking another square kilometer there it matters for those people who are sort of tallying this almost like a sporting 14:31 event on a on a sort of day byday week by- week basis but in in wider terms in 14:36 terms of the capacity to actually bring an end to this war that suits Moscow 14:41 this is not really having any major effect and as you say the casualty figur I think are the crucial thing because at the same time as the Russians are 14:48 burning through Personnel we're also seeing that they're actually having more and more trouble actually recruiting people at home they're having to offer 14:54 more and more money to be blunt so at some point the the discrepancy between the two will become a real problem and 15:01 just on that Mark just finally do do you think Putin is prepared to go to more extreme lengths when it comes to 15:08 mobilization it's interesting that he has held back from the politically problematic sort of options which are 15:14 either another mobilization wave and we saw just how disruptive the first one was where for every Soldier he managed 15:20 to get to the front lines two to three Russians fled the country or else using conscripts I mean up to now he's held 15:27 back from using these 18 21 year olds doing their national service because again he knows that that would have a 15:33 massive um impact on on the home front so these are options that are at his 15:38 disposal absolutely the thing is for now it's almost too late for this year 15:44 because even if he calls a mobilization wave tomorrow it will take probably six to eight weeks before the soldiers could 15:50 potentially be available for fighting and by that point the the summer campaigning season is beginning to to 15:56 slightly sort of ramp down but actually also the political costs get get greater 16:01 over time and and therefore again I mean yes if he absolutely feels that his back 16:07 is to the wall he will turn to these but I think actually he's also increasingly 16:12 worried about just how the Russian population will respond if he starts throwing the not volunteers but recruits 16:20 and uh you know raised reservists into the battle I think uh what what is 16:26 happening is that Ukraine is exercising what we call IND doctrinal terms sea denial uh they're severely constricting 16:33 where the Russians can go uh from where they can launch their missiles for example against land targets in Ukraine 16:39 they've certainly uh been able to uh deter any sort of amphibious operations by uh the Russians in the western Black 16:46 Sea and of course in the early days um you'll remember that the citizens of Odessa could actually see Russian 16:52 amphibia ships just on the horizon that's how close they were um and after 16:57 the mosa of of course was hit by the indigenously produced anti- ship 17:02 missiles the Neptunes uh that rather pushed the the Russians back a bit then they had their seab bab uh surface 17:09 drones uh which carry up to a ton of explosive now and they're out hunting 17:14 Russian ships both warships and Merchant ships and they've essentially pushed the 17:20 Russian surface Fleet into noora cisk which is um well to the east of what 17:26 they would call the combat zone and making life in Sasa pole in crier 17:32 increasingly untenable and as you mentioned uh they they struck and sank the rosof on Dawn this kilo class 17:39 submarine now they've already had a go at the rosof on Dawn before it had a huge hole in it when it was in Dry Dock 17:46 the the Russians obiously tried to repair it got it back uh on the water again and it's been hit by what I think 17:52 is n missile one of these Advanced American ballistic missiles uh that can be really accurately targeted by 17:59 satellite or or by drone so cumulatively with the anti-ship missiles the addition 18:06 of aams the use of both air and um surface drones uh they've made life 18:12 pretty untenable uh for the Russians in the Black 18:18 Sea I mean Ukraine targeting the Black Sea Fleet is nothing new but it does 18:24 raise the question why has Russia not been able to better defend it especially given we're talking about Ukraine here 18:30 which is a country without much of an Navy at all to speak of yeah what we have to remember James is that you know 18:36 a maritime capability is not just what you can put to see it's the sort of uh air units um aircraft in particular it's 18:44 missiles it's everything you can launch from land and that's included drones and these uh surface based uh uh drones as 18:51 well um what's going to be significant of course is when the f-16s arrive U because they can carry a variety of 18:57 Munitions some of which are fire and forget others have to be sort of locked onto by the f-16's radar then guided to 19:04 their targets but that's going to give them a massive uplifting capability uh to actually drive the Russians even 19:10 further away the problem for the Russians of course is they they can't reinforce their Black Sea Fleet from 19:17 outside because the montro convention in 1930 says you're not allowed to actually 19:22 pass warships of belligerant through uh the dardel and up past Istanbul so they 19:28 can't actually put more warships in there and significantly the Russians just had a big Global exercise and the 19:36 one Fleet that hasn't been able to take part in that out of the Baltic the Pacific and the northern fleet has been 19:42 the Black Sea Fleet they've been notable by their absence the other big success of course that the ukrainians have had 19:49 is they've been able to open up this um protected route for their exports particularly grain exports in on the 19:56 western side of the uh Black Sea and essentially that goes through um 20:02 territorial Waters of Bulgaria Romania turkey so NATO countries uh Russians be 20:08 very unwise to attack shipping in the territorial Seas of those countries and the last bit is heavily mined uh by the 20:15 ukrainians as it approaches uh the territorial Seas of mova and goes into Odessa as well so there's also very 20:23 successful story there and Russian warships aren't able to approach and Target that 20:30 and Ukraine has obviously had a lot of success targeting Russian air defenses in crime it says only the other day they destroyed four Russian uh S400 air 20:37 defense systems between the degrading of the Black Sea Fleet and the targeting of Russian air defenses in Crimea how 20:44 vulnerable is the peninsula which of course is occupied by Russia to a to an attack by Ukraine now yeah it's very 20:51 vulnerable James um the fact of life is that it relies exclusively for its water 20:57 um and water coming down from jppa River now the ukrainians have cut that off uh 21:03 and almost all the supplies that uh that uh the Russians want to get into crime 21:08 they have to either take through the the bits they've occupied the landbridge as they call it in the east of Ukraine 21:15 that's the dbas uh and and other regions there zapar that sits right on top of 21:22 crier or they have to take it across the Kirch bridge and as you say the Kirch bridge is coming under incre 21:29 surveillance and I think soon attack by uh the ukrainians um as you say they 21:35 they've taken out some S400 launchers that's quite an advanced missile system there was a rumor this week they'd taken 21:41 out an S500 missile system which we haven't seen used in Anger yet but if 21:46 that's the case then the Russians are going to be smarting after that to tell you the truth but it looks like me the 21:51 ukrainians that are trying to probe and take out the air defenses of the Kirch 21:57 Bridge area before they take it out with something else I suspect an aack him uh or two will hit 22:04 it and were the kurch bridge to be destroyed or or rendered effectively 22:09 useless how significant a moment would that be what would that mean both 22:14 symbolically but also operationally for the Russians yeah symbolically obviously 22:20 it's going to mean a lot and the Russians are putting a lot into defending it uh what it means is that the logistic chains coming through the 22:27 occupied um oblast occupied provinces in the south and east of uh Ukraine are 22:33 going to come under absolutely more pressure from uh longrange uh strikes from the ukrainians both by drone and by 22:40 these atacam missiles which got a range of between 170 190 uh miles so quite significant 22:48 their ballistic missiles so very hard to intercept and got a very good explosive power on the other end whether it's a 22:54 single Warhead or bomblets that are contained in a m 23:01 Warhead let's talk about the the f-16s um president zilinski has confirm that 23:06 the first f-16s have now been delivered to Ukraine how much of a difference do you think they'll make to The Wider 23:13 War I think the difference they'll make they're going to have to be used sparingly I think if you look at what 23:19 Ukraine really needs they probably need about 140 150 f16s to make a difference 23:25 I I think they're going to have to use them sparingly uh both to support their existing aircraft which are mostly mid 23:30 29 um to to enable them to survive you got Advanced avionics you got better 23:35 radar you've got a whole range of Munitions that can go under the wings of the F-16 um It's a Wonderful aircraft in 23:44 that respect it's very high performance I should think that the Russians will be hunting them from day one with some of 23:50 their more advanced fight fighters to tell you the truth to try and take them out of the game but the fact of life is 23:55 there are thousands of f-16s around the world one of the the attractions of having f-16s is that quite a lot of 24:01 countries can donate them if they want to um and some of the most advanced uh variants uh are more than a match for 24:08 some of the Russian Fighters that we've seen deployed uh in in Ukraine at the moment so it's going to make a 24:14 difference they're going to have to be used sparingly they're going to have to be protected but expect to see them 24:19 probably launching Munitions against both land and sea targets over the next few 24:25 months it's interesting you say Chris they probably need 140 150 to make a real difference I think zalinski said 24:31 they need about 130 but you know certainly a lot more than they'll have to begin with is there any Prospect of 24:37 of Ukraine ending up with that number in six months a year's time yeah it's 24:43 possible I think we've got to we've got to be realistic and say they're going to lose some of them um and of course as in 24:50 the Battle of Britain it's not so much the number of aircraft that you can produce it's a number of Pilots that can 24:55 actually fly them as well uh and I supose they've probably got more aircraft and Pilots that can fly them at 25:00 the moment and that's going to be continuing to be the case so uh preserving the air crew for those 25:06 aircraft is going to be very important indeed uh so as I said use them sparingly use them for high priority and 25:13 high importance targets um don't don't spread them across the battlefield would be my 25:19 advice and preserving the aircraft themselves of course will be a huge thing presumably Russia will be 25:25 targeting Ukrainian airbases looking for the f-16s if you're Ukraine how can you mitigate that risk well well what you do 25:32 I mean the other the other thing James of course is we've got sort of maintainers have to be preserved as well 25:38 these are new aircraft uh although we've seen the ukrainians are very adaptable and very resourceful so uh don't be 25:44 surprised if you see quite a lot of old kit being strapped onto the f-16s and been made to work as well so what 25:51 they'll do is they'll obviously camouflage them they'll try and reduce the signature they'll try and uh stop 25:57 the Russians being to track them back to their bases and when they are in and around their bases they'll try and 26:02 disperse them you won't put them all together in one place one of the beauties of course of the F-35 and 26:08 previously the Harrier is you could actually put it out in very austere places and it could operate almost from 26:14 fields in fact in the forlands the the Harrier did operate from Fields uh and was able to do that so they'll have to 26:21 disperse them they'll have to disguise camouflage them and be very careful about their physical and electronic 26:27 signature when they flying around and returning to base there was a very interesting piece 26:33 in the times this week by George gr as the times defense correspondent he's just returned from Romania where he 26:39 visited what will soon be NATO's biggest Air Base in Europe what is the 26:44 significance of NATO expanding That Base not far from the border with 26:51 Russia well obviously there are a lot of reasons for being in that part of the a 26:56 part of the world NATO needs to concentrate there in the same way it needs to concentrate around the Baltic states of Estonia lvia and Lithuania um 27:05 you know they come under frequent threat from Russia there's quite a lot of surveillance a lot of 27:11 electronic interference jamming of GPS uh Romania and Bulgaria need to be reassured that obviously NATO is looking 27:18 out for them and there's no better way of doing that than putting NATO forces in those countries that's part of it 27:25 secondly it enables the basing of aircraft and other air system systems that can conduct surveillance of the 27:31 Ukrainian theater and if it all goes wrong around Odessa and the Russians get 27:36 their way in mova for example it gives us an excellent opportunity not only to survey the land area but also the 27:44 broader Black Sea uh region into crime and places like that and if obviously 27:50 the Russians decide to escalate anything we're prepared we're operating in the local environment we're familiar with 27:55 the territory in the airspace and we can react 28:01 accordingly what is your take Chris on the rate of Russian casualties we're seeing at the moment there was an 28:06 intelligence report recently from the British mod Ministry of Defense saying they estimate Russia will have around a 28:12 thousand casualties per day throughout the month of August is that 28:18 sustainable well it's interesting I mean I was listening to um a speech by a Russian general um to some staff 28:26 officers about three months ago and he was asked you know are we going to win in Ukraine and he he of course said yes 28:33 we are and he said what's the plan General and the general said well we'll just throw corpses at it and you know 28:40 everybody got up and applauded I mean that is the Russian way you know they they don't actually think 28:46 of casualties in the same way that we do um and it is extraordinary the extent to 28:53 which the Russian people can take these casualties without actually saying well 28:58 this is not really in the interest of the motherland that we're we're um we're losing all these people I think that to 29:04 an extent the losses are being disguised uh in Russia quite a lot of the soldiers 29:09 are coming from should we say the edges of society particularly from those parts 29:14 of the r Russian Federation that not very visible you know not many people from St Petersburg Moscow and places 29:21 like that um and uh what I've heard is you know they they've suffered up to 29:27 800,000 casualties both killed and severely wounded which is quite phenomenal when you think about it 29:33 that's uh you know just under 8% of the population um which is pretty 29:38 unsustainable but the Russians are in for the Long Haul they've got immense Financial Resources based on their 29:45 energy sales um they've got the ability now to import weapons from China Russia 29:52 and other friendly countries and we're seeing quite a lot of arms transfers now um you know even SE seen Pakistan saying 30:00 they'll they'll contribute Shahed missiles ballistic missiles to Iran well if they give them to Iran they're going 30:05 to end up in Russia at some stage so we've got to understand that in this new 30:11 world of ours um that a country's capacity is not limited by what itself 30:17 can produce either in Manpower or in terms of material um we have spoken many 30:23 times James on the fact that the world is split into two blocks now the Eurasian Rats of Russia China Iran and 30:30 North Korea and the maritime democracies which predominantly NATO um United 30:35 States obviously Japan Australia New Zealand um and South Korea and probably 30:42 India moving towards that in the future but the fact of life is these two blocks are moving weapons expertise 30:49 intelligence around between each other all the time depending on where they're they're focused in the world so you know 30:56 behind Russia at the moment you've got China Iran and North Korea if they can get away with it they're supplying arms 31:03 weapons expertise and intelligence all at once and just to go back to the point 31:10 about the Russian casualty rates I mean I absolutely hear what you say Chris it is it is historically fact that Russia 31:16 has long had a different attitude to the sacrificing of human life but even though at the moment a lot of the the 31:22 troops fighting on the front line in Ukraine for Russia are migrants or convicts have not had much train or not 31:28 as you say are people on the fringes of Russian Society surely there is a finite supply of such troops and is Vladimir 31:35 Putin prepared to take the political risk of for example calling up 18 to 21 31:42 year olds who are doing their national service who are if you want good middle class Russian boys the sons of of people 31:48 living in the big cities of of Moscow and St Petersburg isn't that the big risk for Putin well I think that's the 31:54 dividing line I mean as you know uh James I think most of the listeners know 32:00 that uh you know nearly 3 million Russians are abroad at the moment trying to avoid that draft um so quite a lot of 32:06 people living outside Russia um the problem is until you actually make 32:12 people in St Petersburg and Moscow field of pain it's not going to count uh you know the the sole Criterion in Russia 32:20 for policymaking decisions is regime survival and they will do anything to 32:25 survive I mean right now if you're vadir Putin you're saying look i' I've captured nearly captured four Ukrainian 32:32 provinces here you know it's part of Mother Russia again and you know even if 32:37 I come to terms at the end of this year which I think is a possibility um we can always wait till next year and then 32:43 we'll grab Odessa and mova and we'll have cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea 32:49 that's what I wanted to achieve in the first place in fact on the first day of the war the 24th of February 2022 I 32:55 actually talked to the chief of Defense staff Tony ricin I said you do realize they're not after the whole of Ukraine 33:02 they just want the bottom third um because that is the old new Russia under Katherine the Great and the reason I 33:09 knew that is because Putin was giving speeches in front of statues of Katherine the great but every Russian 33:14 knew what that meant uh even if people in the west didn't pick it up so it it was always the case I think that he was 33:21 wanting to do that obviously decapitate the government in KF um and also 33:28 make it more of a dependent satellite uh but in terms of territorial acquisition 33:34 he wanted that bottom third and just finally Chris on the 33:39 point about mobilization and Manpower where do you think Ukraine are with that at the moment well Ukraine is struggling 33:46 I mean you know they've only got a population of 42 million um which is you 33:52 know about a quarter that of Russia um and the number of people can actually fight in the front line is limited so 33:58 they're having to it's very much like the British Army in World War II you couldn't actually sacrifice vast numbers 34:04 of troops in battles because we didn't have the demographics for it it's the same with Ukraine so Ukraine's trying to 34:10 use quite a lot of Technology a lot of expertise to try and supplement its Mega Manpower 34:16 um at the end of the day Ukraine is going to have to pick its battles where 34:22 it commits its Manpower and we've seen all through this year um the Russians trying to probe to see where they can 34:29 suck in that Manpower and destroy it that actually hasn't happened because the ukrainians have been smart um my own 34:36 instinct is that once this campaigning season is over I think we're going to see moves from both sides to try and 34:42 settle something by way of an Armistice I don't think we're ever going to see a 34:48 complete peace at the moment because both sides aspirations are still outstanding there isn't the basis for 34:55 negotiation on a permanent basis but I think there'll be some sort of ceasefire Armistice by the end of the year they'll 35:02 want to draw breath see what's going on um R Russia frankly could declare Victory now uh by holding those four 35:10 provinces and Crimea um oddly enough I think crime is the least tenable uh of 35:16 the parts of Ukraine that Russia holds right now um if I'm a betting man uh I I 35:23 think the Russians will end up with the two Eastern provinces the ones that most heavily populated by Russians they could 35:31 lose the Crimea um but when I talk to Russians it's almost as if it's over our 35:37 dead body we're going to lose Crimea something very totemic very symbolic about holding Crimea um and of course 35:44 the Sovereign base at sevastopol um they wouldn't be able to replace sevastopol overnight if they 35:51 lost crimeia let's come on to the latest on the war in Ukraine and I suppose first of all Bill do you think there's any 35:58 significance in terms of the prisoner agreements on the on the war in Ukraine um I don't think it has any real 36:05 impact on the war in Ukraine I mean uh I think that that the war in Ukraine is going on and it will continue to go on 36:12 Putin needs this war in order to stay sort of firmly in power he needs to show everybody that he's a strong man and 36:18 this war does that for him um the ukrainians are not not going to give up territory nor give up in any way because 36:25 if they do you know the brutality and the murder and rape and and other terrible things that they do in occupied 36:32 Ukraine and so right now what you have is is you know both sides firmly dug in 36:37 and and U there's I there's no end to this war in sight in my opinion I mean I 36:42 asked that because I've heard one or two people suggests that somehow The Prisoner agreement may show that negotiations are possible between Russia 36:50 and the West when it comes to Ukraine the problem I suppose with that is most the people who are suggesting negotiations are implicitly saying that 36:56 would involve Ukraine Sovereign territory well um there are no negotiations I mean the only negotiation 37:02 that should be had is a withdrawal agreement from from Ukraine that if Russia agrees to withdraw their their 37:08 troops from from Ukrainian Sovereign territory then then the negotiation should be you know and under what 37:14 conditions they withdraw their troops um any other negotiation doesn't make any sense what I mean Russia invaded Russia 37:20 should withdraw um there there's no uh anybody suggesting otherwise is just 37:26 suggesting capitulation and capitulation and appeasement only leads to you know 37:31 um other Terrible Things Putin doesn't view compromise and weakness um as a way 37:36 of de-escalating he he gets he he gets more excited and more enraged and more aggressive when he sees 37:43 weakness let's talk about a major development over the past few days which is a Ukrainian incursion into the kers O 37:50 blast of Russia if you're Vladimir Putin sitting in the Kremlin is that what really concerns you when the war 37:55 physically comes to Russian territory I I think this is a a dramatic 38:00 development and and something which uh both symbolically and militarily um 38:06 really has huge implications symbolically this makes Putin look weak it makes him look like he can't you know 38:13 he he started what they what he described as a special military operation he he even prosecuted people 38:19 who called it a war he called it called this thing a war you sent sents to jail eight years so this special military 38:26 operation the purpose of calling it that was to make it seem like it's something far away very defined not affecting the 38:31 Russian people and all of a sudden a piece of Russia has been annexed by 38:37 Ukraine and and I'm maybe going a little ahead of myself it's only a few tens of 38:42 kilometers but the symbolism of that is is is Extreme because now how does Putin 38:48 characterize this in this own sort of hermetically sealed special military operation this is a war where that he 38:55 started which is now bitten off a piece of Russia and depending on how this plays itself out how long they can hold 39:02 the territory can they get more territory it's even more humiliating Putin the other thing it does is is it 39:08 means that that Russia has to sort of re-evaluate where they're allocating their limited resources and of course 39:14 Russia is a much bigger country than Ukraine they've got many more troops and much more equipment but all of a sudden 39:20 now that if they don't do something to stop this Advance which means pulling people out of aggressing in Ukraine 39:28 um it could get worse for them and so this this has a lot of implications I think it's worth watching very closely 39:34 over the next days and weeks and and U as somebody who supports Ukraine wholeheartedly I'm I'm very excited and 39:41 encouraged by this new development and I think it's um it it shows the creativity and and the genius of of the Ukrainian 39:49 military commanders the point about where Russia allocates resources is a really critical 39:54 one and and there have been reports in recent weeks even that that Putin has asked for air defenses to be transferred 40:00 away from Ukraine into Russia to look after his presidential palaces in Moscow 40:06 and in Suchi what do you make of that bill well what what it shows is is that 40:11 Ukraine's um uh drone strategy that Ukraine's um grinding down of of 40:18 Russia's um uh um uh equipment all over the place is working uh it's you know 40:25 Ukraine is a total Underdog but there they're very effective Underdog that they they have used what limited tools 40:31 they have um to the maximum uh advantage to harm Russia and to harm Putin and and 40:37 um you know everybody thought this war was going to be over in three days and and now we're two and a half years into it and and Russia is suffering and of 40:43 course Ukraine has suffered profoundly and and and uh you know nothing can take that away but Russia is suffering as 40:50 well and and they in addition to them moving you know air defenses away from Ukraine to protect Putin's palaces um 40:57 Russia has lost half a million I think it's the number is going close to 600,000 soldiers according to Ukrainian 41:03 estimates I mean a thousand a day and just to put this in perspective the entire Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 41:11 over a 10-year period they lost 15,000 soldiers they've lost 600,000 now or 580,000 or whatever the the accurate 41:18 number is but a huge huge number and and um that's that's unbelievable I mean 41:24 it's it's shocking it's beyond comprehension the the amount of of death destruction 41:30 and disability that that Russia that Putin has inflicted on his own people I 41:35 suppose that does raise the question though why is Putin not paying the political price at home for the casualty 41:41 rate that the Soviets did for the casualty rate in Afghanistan um because he's running an 41:46 absolute dictatorship um and and and maybe it was a dictatorship before but 41:51 it's a much more pernicious dictatorship right now where if you're a mother who's lost a child and you say something um 41:59 bad about that you end up losing your pension maybe losing your apartment maybe even going to jail and so 42:04 everybody is just sitting in absolute Terror and fear and heartbreak about what's what's happened and and there's 42:09 nothing they can do about it and and and there is some Putin has sort of reallocated the pain towards the least 42:17 politically um influential people to the to the extent that there's any politics what he's done is he's subjected the 42:23 poorest the most minority people in Russia to the death and destruction so 42:29 if you're in Bia or inosa or or or some very far away place from Moscow there's 42:36 a very high chance that that your children or your brother or or your yourself are somehow affected by this if 42:43 you're in Moscow and St Petersburg where the wealthy people are there's a much lower chance but at the end of the day 42:49 everybody is affected by this it doesn't it doesn't bypass anybody and the the cemeteries are full in all sorts of 42:55 places in Moscow by De people and and sooner or later that has to have an effect but but as long as there is the 43:02 risk of of retaliation by the state everybody is just keeping quiet and do 43:07 you think Bill we might be close to Putin being forced to resort to calling up young men from the big cities of 43:13 Moscow and St Petersburg and if he does that is that really the moment of Maximum political Peril for him well the 43:19 moment right now what what he's doing is he's paying more and more money to pay 43:24 people to go to fight in the war and so again you get the poor people who are ready to do almost anything for money um 43:30 and so that the the amount of payment to people to fight in the war has has gone up by several 100% because they're 43:36 trying they're sort of scraping the bottom of the barrel but eventually they will have to do a conscription and as 43:41 they do that conscription then they then there isn't you know no matter um what I mean if if you're if you're going to die 43:49 um in war you have a much better um you you're not so worried about protesting 43:55 being called off to battle and so I think that you know that's why he's trying to avoid it is he knows that that even with his 44:01 repression if they do a general conscription in this this pointless War um that that does put him at some risk 44:08 of people getting angry and doing stuff a dramatic news has broken this week of 44:13 a Ukrainian Invasion into the KK region of Russia what is your understanding of 44:18 who is part of that attack and what has actually happened uh well I mean there's the 44:25 usual caveats of this is something that's developing fairly rapidly and we're only about 48 hours into this but 44:32 it it looks like what we have is a a reasonably large Ukrainian operation involving forces from at least two 44:39 brigades who have crossed the border into uh K kco blast in Russia um and are 44:46 now sort of if you like spreading out and uh that thus far they've captured a number of small villages uh they appear 44:53 to be in the outskirts of the town of zza and they've probably um captured or 44:58 at least there's there's images of several hundred Russian troops who have been kind of caught up in this as as 45:04 prisons of War President Putin is reported to have held an emergency meeting of his 45:10 National Security Council calling this a largescale provocation do we know really 45:15 how big it is at the moment though I think it's difficult to know the exact size of it because uh you know some of 45:22 this images have been filtering out but it's first of all it looks like the first um incursion of this scale using 45:30 Ukrainian conventional forces into to Russia we've seen some previously from sort of proxies or Ukrainian supported 45:38 resistance forces um but there are at least two brigades here the 202 recognized and the 80c air assault where 45:46 Personnel have been identified from footage and from pictures um and it's 45:52 certainly embarrassing for uh Russia uh at the moment there was there were some 45:58 signs in the the initial uh reporting that they had basically said well we've got this situation under control uh that 46:04 we have repelled Ukrainian forces and those messages have all now been deleted 46:10 um from Russian social media and instead they're sort of treating this as a as a as more of a crisis than an 46:17 incident uh Major General MC Ryan who he often commentates on on front line has 46:22 has written an early assessment of the situation and he talks about this multi- brigade operation with these quality 46:28 brigades the 22nd mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault Brigade I mean if 46:34 this is true and if there are more to come it's pointing to something quite different isn't it I think potentially I mean again 46:42 there it's difficult to it's difficult to know at the moment what the exact uh objectives are and I think it's worth 46:48 splitting those down into the sort of the military objectives the Tactical objectives and what could be some 46:54 significant um political and presentational ones um on the ground uh there are a number of 47:01 potential explanations for what this is intended to do I mean it could be just an opportunity that opened up to um go 47:08 on to you know conduct a Counterattack go on to the offensive capture some prisoners of War for later prisoner 47:15 exchange um it could be linked to uh operations that are going on elsewhere 47:21 that we don't know about or that are about to be launched um so for example there is uh some suggestion that there 47:28 are lines of communication and supply lines that are going to the Russian forces that are on the Ukrainian side of 47:34 the border around harke and that if this operation proceeded far enough it could threaten those sufficiently to cause 47:41 them to um draw back um it it doesn't 47:46 seem likely that Kirsk itself or for example KK nuclear power station are the targets 47:53 um because some of those are you know 50 kilm or more in um and that would be quite risky to insert Ukrainian forces 48:00 and then try and sustain them inside Russian territory in the face of an inevitable Russia Counterattack but 48:07 politically and presentation there's a couple of potential big wins here depending on how this goes and that's 48:13 first of all a a boost to Ukrainian morale given that they've had quite a 48:18 difficult year and also showing to International backers that the ukrainians are still in the fight and 48:23 that's particularly important with the US elections coming up yeah because um as one National 48:29 broadcaster in the UK said uh Ukraine's back in the news yes and I I think that there's a 48:36 degree to which if this captures headlines uh embarrasses uh Putin 48:42 embarrasses the Russians um it somewhat reverses the narrative uh of what has 48:47 been probably six months of very slow Russian gains although it's worth noting at the moment there are no signs that 48:53 the Russians are having to divert forces from in or around the dbass and that 48:59 situation there particularly around chazar and heading towards proov P's uh 49:04 remains quite delicate and dangerous for the ukrainians that's really interesting because that those those places you talk 49:11 about are a long way from where this is happening in the dbass at New York as well tesque um is it like you say you 49:17 say there's no sign that Russian forces are having to be diverted so do you think there is lik to be no impact of 49:24 this Invasion either in the Ukraine ability defend to defend there or Russ 49:29 Russia's ability to continue its slow attritional advances yes I mean the Russians I mean this all assumes that 49:36 the Russians are effectively coordinating well and it's worth noting that they they seem to have been caught on the Hop here um that goes some way to 49:44 suggesting that the ukrainians have addressed some of the problems that they've had in operational security over 49:49 the past 12 months um but the the Russians should have sufficient reserves and forces to move those into the area 49:57 to meet this um this raid and in theory it shouldn't affect uh what's happening 50:03 further south which remains their their main objective and their main thrust um 50:09 but of course actually you know o over time the Russians have shown both that 50:14 their coordination of large operational forces has been far from perfect a lot 50:19 of what they're doing has been as a product of if you like uh brute force or massed numbers um and in terms of 50:27 defenses in and around Russia for example air defenses um they have shown 50:33 that they're under pressure there given the losses that they're suffering all the way along the front line and so one 50:38 of the reasons that the ukrainians continue to conduct some of those deep strike operations that they use uh 50:44 drones for um is that they can attack Crimea they attack out to the east of 50:50 Ukraine as we've seen another Airbase hit in the past week and they attack deep into Russia because that in terms 50:57 of uh air defense systems and you know forces behind the front lines does pose 51:03 some challenges to the Russians about where they placed them and how were they able to catch the 51:09 Russians on the Hop here in KK so so in that in in this respect that that's I 51:14 mean we we don't know at the moment but that's an interesting uh uh area to to delve into perhaps some retrospective 51:21 analysis of what was visible and what could be inferred from that because up until now what we been seeing is 51:27 actually an increase in the level of surveillance that is possible over the 51:32 battlefield um the Russians in particular have got a lot of small surveillance drones um and uh they have 51:40 the upper hand at the moment in terms of you know what we call the transparency of the battlefield and that's down to 51:47 the fact that they are able to put so many over the battlefield um that the 51:52 ukrainians are having to face difficult decisions about where and how they use their own groundbased air defenses a lot 51:58 of the really big systems with long ranges and needed to protect uh critical infrastructure and cities like keev and 52:05 also it would be too expensive to use Patriots to take down you know mediumsized surveillance drones let 52:11 alone the very small loitering ones that the Russians use and in this attack um 52:17 they are using highly mobile mechanized forces a surprise as we talked about backed up with significant air defenses 52:24 The Institute for the study of war in its assessment on the 7th of August it points to ger located foit on of the 52:30 sixth and 7th showing Ukrainian armored vehicles advancing about 10 kilometers 52:36 from the international border with Ukrainian forces penetrating at least two Russian defensive lines and a 52:42 stronghold um what can you tell us about the direction of the attack and why they've managed to cross and how they've 52:47 managed to cross the def those defensive lines with aares well I mean it looks like they may they may have gone even 52:53 further in the maybe overnight you know we now look at maybe 15 kilm in some directions it it does appear in part 53:00 that this has been a more lightly defended and more static part of the line um and so rather than facing the 53:07 kind of uh heavy Russian defenses significant minefields significant 53:13 fortifications with lots of artillery cover that we saw further to the South and to the east they only faced in the 53:20 first instance border guards and maybe sort of FSB Ground Forces rather than large conventional forces I think 53:28 there's an open question maybe a bit too soon to work out whether that is as a consequence of Russian complacency or 53:35 maybe Ukrainian deception in terms of how they built up these forces um 53:40 possibly the Russians simply didn't expect it because the pressure that they're placing elsewhere and the fact 53:45 that ukrainians for their part have had to rush forces around harke um to deal 53:51 with that that buffer zone operation which in itself has has basically stoed 53:56 stalled I mean that's a good example of where the Ukrainian ability to use some 54:01 Western supplied weapons over the Border has now had an impact on Russian forces and they've basically stemmed that 54:08 advance and begun to turn it back if if it is true um that that tanks are being 54:14 used that have been supplied by NATO allies and armored fighting Vehicles as 54:20 well what do you read into the consequences politically of that if that is the case used in this invasion so we 54:26 there's certainly been some images of at least infantry fighting Vehicles so things like uh Strikers um I think some 54:32 of the German armed vehicles have been seen as well in some respects what this does is expose some of the rhetoric that 54:38 the Russians have used in the past about threats to Russian territory um which is 54:44 that they they haven't essentially um gone over the top in terms of their initial reaction indeed they still seem 54:50 to be absorbing the operation to a certain degree I think when the 54:56 Us in particular freed up its restrictions on artillery both Barrel you know tube artillery and some of the 55:03 rocket artillery what it was doing is reflecting the fact that um that those 55:09 weapons are being used to attack Russian forces in you know the close battle along the front line elsewhere in 55:16 Ukraine and that what was happening around HEV was simply the same kind of 55:21 battle but it just so happened to straddle the international border in in essence 55:27 um this is an extension of that it's a conventional relatively close range fight that just so happens to have uh 55:34 the international border in the way um it's not clear whether uh the very 55:40 longer the longer range weapons uh cruise missiles like Storm Shadow or the US supplied um ballistic missile 55:48 attackers would be usable in this uh in this struggle but I think there's 55:54 definitely an argument that would be made by a son that the fact that this battle rages backwards and forwards demonstrates that 56:01 um fears of Russian escalation whil they should be taken seriously are somewhat overblown in and around that close 56:09 fight how long do you think it's going to be before it becomes apparent how 56:14 long this this Advance is going to to last how long is it going to take before we actually get a better picture what's 56:20 really going on so a lot of that depends on in essence both the objectives and 56:26 the the speed at which the Russians muster an effective defense because uh 56:32 you could see uh what was always intended to be something quite limited 56:38 uh extending duration if it turns out the Russians um don't must an effective 56:43 defense and then what happens is there's a significant opportunity here for the ukrainians to effectively take more 56:50 territory I think the danger there is that that that sounds quite tempting but if they haven't got uh the reserves or 56:57 the ability to then stabilize a strong defensive position what they'll have done is taken some quality forces push 57:05 them over the border and then potentially overextended so um maybe uh 57:10 another 48 or 72 hour hours will have a good idea of the Russian response and we 57:16 might see um Ukrainian consolidation and reserves moving up I mean some of that 57:22 is the indications that we we might see although if they prct just effective camouflage and deception up until this 57:28 point they might be able to sort of hide that followup as well and do you think the ukrainians actually have the forces 57:35 to hold the ground I mean it's always a bit difficult to sort of second guess them from from a thousand miles away um uh 57:44 but the general view has been there is a Manpower challenge for the ukrainians 57:50 with the current front lines so the mobilization that they' have taken place 57:55 the change in the prescription age and the need to rebuild large welle equipped 58:01 counteroffensive forces for next year mean um that you're unlikely to see a 58:07 significant counter offensive this year and I should note this isn't a significant counter offensive but it is 58:12 a spoiler in Russian plans so if you accept all of that true there is a risk 58:19 here that um the extension of the front lines in this way is not sustainable and 58:26 I think a lot of people would be concerned if the ukrainians tried to do that um I mean we've been wrong before 58:32 um and so there's a note of caution in here but but generally The View has been that no they don't have the forces right 58:39 now at the requisite level of quality and training and equipment to push that forward it's worth noting for 58:47 example that they would be well beyond the range of some of their longer ranged 58:54 air defenses which would be necessary to protect them against incoming Russian aircraft who could begin to Pummel them 59:01 with glide bombs of the kind that were used when the Carie operations started 59:06 um and they appear to have pushed up quite successfully their own uh fpv 59:11 drones and smaller drones to strike Russian ground forces and indeed some Russian helicopters for example that 59:17 we've seen But there is a genuine concern over whether or not they have enough of a defensive bubble against 59:25 those incoming Russian aircraft that would be used and I think it would be an enormous risk to try and push forward 59:31 for example the f-16s that have just arrived in country this far into Russia 59:36 to defend them yeah I was asking a little bit about that their ability to hold the 59:41 ground because one of the theories that had been uh told to me by one of the 59:46 reporters from the times is that um Ukrainian his sources were saying Maxim turkus sources were saying that 59:53 ukrainians have very firmly got their eyes on the US elections and that would 59:58 be of interest is take take and hold as much ground as possible in anticipation 1:00:03 because they are convinced of the ones that he's spoken to that Donald Trump will be the next president and there will be some kind of Peace Dale that may be forced upon and this is a a a Race Against Time to reset the the boundaries if as it were yeah I mean I think um that that's certainly possible I mean it would be a bold uh uh Gambit uh if that were true given how far in advance we are of a you know potential Trump presidency even if he were to win the election um we're talking another five months before he would be in position and so a Ukrainian operation launched now to capture as much ground as possible to potentially trade it back for for example bits of the donbass um that that would require quite considerable reinforcement um and up until now the Ukrainian uh modus operand on the ground has been to ensure that the you know the 1:01:05 the exchange rate of losses is as unfavorable to Russia as possible I mean Russia's been essentially doing that itself with how it's been advancing uh at the moment but they can take those losses for some months yet whereas the ukrainians can't so um I wouldn't rule out um essentially a a Gambit to seize territory that could later be traded away um but it's going to be a tall order to consolidate and hold it um throughout the winter um to be in a position to affect those later negotiations if we could just talk a little bit now about some of the successes that Ukrainian forces have had with their drones in recent days um this offensive included a reported firstperson view fpv drone strike bring down a Russian Mi 28 attack helicopter according to a source in the Ukrainian sbu Security Services what does that tell us about the evolving capabilities of the Ukrainian drone 1:02:05 operators so I think what it's I mean we've seen some interesting if you like aerial combat or or less aerial combat but aerial use of drones on both sides so we've seen those those images I think the first of of essentially an fpv drone bringing down a helicopter in Flight we're also seeing an increasing number of examples of both sides using fpv and other um kind of Laing Munitions against each other's drones and so for example there's been a recent Spate of some of the Ukrainian drones that if you like uh drop weapons on Russian forces there's video of them being struck by Russian lodging Munitions and drones um I think it's another example of the um both the proliferation uh of different types and um more proficient use uh by the operators in those drones to an extent that um would probably overmatch you 1:03:04 know anything that you say the UK has got at the moment like the experience that is being built up amongst drone operators on both sides in essentially using small um small you re racing drones or modified commercial drones to strike moving military targets is pretty impressive it does also show that there is still this background electronic warfare battle going on so various drone types have come into use and then been jammed or rendered obsolete if the ukrainians have advanced this far into Russia and are using their fpv drones on Russian territory they've clearly found some way to counter local Russian uh jamming and electronic warfare I'm also really interested to hear your take on the attack which you mentioned briefly earlier on the Airfield the moros in the rostov upblast it was an audacious attack and although it has been attacked before it's the the extent of the attack and the Damage that 1:04:01 done that's interesting in this particular attack what can you tell us about the growing sense of confidence and capability there so I I think this goes to the heart of uh there's both a there's both a big picture value in these as well as the Tactical one um the big picture is that it is that it this is the other way that the ukrainians have been keeping the Russians on the back foot and demonstrating that they have got an ability to reach out and hit Russia um where it hurts so you know uh some of the stuff that's been closest to the front line has been ammunition Supply uh depos um some of the fuel or uh rail depos uh where uh supplies get moved into Russian forces but also Russian infrastructure and deeper targets and striking the air bases and they've gone EXT extremely far north we're talking over a thousand kilometers in some cases to hit large Russian bomber bases that is both about keeping uh the Russians 1:05:07 aware that the war can come home to them but that is also about trying to do something about the Russian air campaign anded at Ukrainian infrastructure as well as their Ground Forces um because uh they have obviously got Patriot and Iris te and other systems providing by the west but the cheapest way of dealing with those those Russian air threats is to destroy the aircraft on the ground before they take off so destroying a a Target like that and it does appear that they cause significant damage to both amunition Supply and aircraft parked on the ground um is really of benefit both presentation and in terms of the conduct of the war um and it's also worth noting that they they do this in various directions because what you've got there is turning the length of the front into a disadvantage 1:06:01 for the Russians which is that they've now got to think about where they Place their air defense systems across an enormous Frontage because effectively although Ground Forces can't get there uh the Russians are now having to assume that almost anything that's within say a thousand miles of the Ukrainian front line in all directions could be a target for drones h if we could just return to to the the invasion in the kurur go blast um President Putin's response was very quick uh notably quick do you think that this has unnerved him do you think there's a bit of a panic going on in the Kremlin I mean I don't I don't really know what what unnerves Putin but it will certainly be uncomfortable to the military leadership because in essence their narrative has been uh you know constant progress limited threat um and the ukrainians essentially are 1:07:00 the ones who should be suing for peace and accepting terms that are put onto them and I think this will induce a little bit of doubt in the minds of some as well as just frankly embarrassing the system um and there is there is some there are some movements going on behind the scenes at the moment where we're beginning to see Military Officers moved around you know officials being picked up for corruption I think there is is unease in the Russian military system as to how effective they are um and even if this is a Time limited operation um the fact that they were able to move across the border threaten a major area do so publicly capture Russian soldiers um it will just create again additional doubt in the Russian mind I mean I think it's worth going back to the V Insurrection the general view is that when that took place if uh progan and the lead elements of that Force had pressed on um having bypassed 1:08:02 most of the ground forces and the kind of um deals that they had made it was eminently possible for them to drive almost to Moscow unchallenged now no one's suggesting that this is a Ukrainian ground operation That Could That Could That Could conduct a similar penetration but it does just create a little bit of concern in Russian military planners about exactly how how deep their defenses are and where their vulnerabilities are so I think I mean it does feel very strongly like this operation um might be more significant politically um and in kind of presentational terms and changing the narrative then it will be necessarily tactically notwithstanding as I said we don't know how this will play out and we we could be looking back in a month a limited operation and saying how audacious and successful it was similarly we might look back and the ukrainians might have got themselves Tangled Up in something that causes them 1:09:02 to take additional losses that they really needed for next year so just finally what will you be 1:09:08 looking for in the coming hours and days so I think there's a question about 1:09:14 uh how reserves are moved I think there will be uh a question of the extent to 1:09:20 which the Russian Air Force is involved in suppressing these Ground Forces um and I think there will be some interest 1:09:28 in whether the ukrainians move up more forces to consolidate particularly on 1:09:33 some of the higher ground will bring up artillery um to strike into for example 1:09:39 some of the supply lines and routes that they might be able to cover um as I said I think there is there is concern about 1:09:46 whether the ukrainians have enough to consolidate in strength um but you would 1:09:51 expect to see some of the there are some excellent analysts out there picking out signs of some of their additional 1:09:57 artillery forces moving up um and whether or not they begin to dig in and consolidate yes so thisentational terms and changing the narrative then it will be necessarily tactically notwithstanding as I said we don't know how this will play out and we we could be looking back in a month a limited operation and saying how audacious and successful it was similarly we might look back and the ukrainians might have got themselves Tangled Up in something that causes them 1:09:02 to take additional losses that they really needed for next year so just finally what will you be 1:09:08 looking for in the coming hours and days so I think there's a question about 1:09:14 uh how reserves are moved I think there will be uh a question of the extent to 1:09:20 which the Russian Air Force is involved in suppressing these Ground Forces um and I think there will be some interest 1:09:28 in whether the ukrainians move up more forces to consolidate particularly on 1:09:33 some of the higher ground will bring up artillery um to strike into for example 1:09:39 some of the supply lines and routes that they might be able to cover um as I said I think there is there is concern about 1:09:46 whether the ukrainians have enough to consolidate in strength um but you would 1:09:51 expect to see some of the there are some excellent analysts out there picking out signs of some of their additional 1:09:57 artillery forces moving up um and whether or not they begin to dig in and consolidate yes so this is a very 1:10:04 interesting um offensive by the ukrainians it's it's the first time that uh Ukraine's regular armed forces have 1:10:10 crossed the borders previously it's been special forces it's been Pro Ukrainian Russian partisans that have crossed the 1:10:15 border in limited raids um now we see what looks like a mechanized bra Brigade 1:10:21 with engineering equipment crossing the border supported by perhaps as many as three other brigades um attacking and 1:10:28 and you know they're taking large numbers of Russian prisoners of War so they've got the capacity to do that and bring them back and they're obviously 1:10:34 determined to to press on um it's it's a very interesting moving situation we'll 1:10:40 see you know how far how ambitious this operation is whether they intend to take and hold areas of land in the in a bid 1:10:47 to divert Russian reserves from the donbass area to the northern theater you 1:10:53 know whether this is a serious attempt to hold onto Russian land ahead of uh any ceasefire discussions or 1:11:00 negotiations which would give them an opportunity to exchange for some of the Ukrainian land that's been taken by the Russians um so we we're watching this 1:11:07 very carefully but it does look like a very serious commitment by the ukrainians a mechanized Brigade across the border into Russia and quite close 1:11:14 to a Russian nuclear power station as well and just briefly what are your Ukrainian contacts telling you about 1:11:20 this well they all say the commanders are keeping very quiet about what the true obje Ives are for this operation 1:11:27 but people are obviously speculating I mean ukrainians are convinced that Donald Trump will win the US Presidency 1:11:33 and they will be forced to negotiate on unfavorable terms uh the Russians have the advantage on the battlefield now 1:11:39 they have the initiative and the ukrainians are trying to to turn that around and make sure that they have a 1:11:44 stronger position if they are forced to go to the negotiating table in November as I said earlier you just 1:11:51 returned from Ukraine you've been in the dbas region where some of the most intense fighting has been taking place 1:11:56 can you just give us a brief overview o of where you went and what the situation 1:12:01 was so I was in tet or near tet on the outskirts of tet and rivka near pakros 1:12:08 on the front line in the pcov direction and these are two cities pakros and tetk which are under intense um bombardment 1:12:15 and the subject of assaults by Russian infantry um the dbass situation is is 1:12:20 not going well for the ukrainians at the moment the Russians have been able to advance pretty rapidly in the last couple of months despite very very hot 1:12:27 temperatures and very difficult fighting conditions they've thrown Manpower into the battle and they have made several 1:12:33 kilometers and pakros is a very key very important Garrison town for the ukrainians Tet is is a city that's 1:12:40 almost been obliterated but it you know it's still important to hold on to for the ukrainians and they want to make 1:12:45 sure they hold tet so that Constantino which is to the north of tret and a really important Road and rail Junction 1:12:53 is not threatened is not flanked by a Russian movement but they are under serious pressure because they don't have 1:12:58 very many Reserves at this point the ukrainians have spread very thin their infantry has has been really taken a lot 1:13:05 of casualties it's also you know people just are tired and they they have to come back from the line for rest and 1:13:11 because they're sick or to care for parents or something like this so they they are really struggling in this 1:13:17 situation to hold such a long front line with the Russians um and that is why Russians are able to make these 1:13:22 incremental advances so I was with a drone Battalion that were trying to defend tetk and I was with um the 47th 1:13:30 Brigade who have very Advanced American Equipment including Abram's tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles who are trying 1:13:36 to hold the line of acros and can we just have a little look I mean you've you've got footage haven't 1:13:43 you of of that work with the uavs and how they're trying to hold those defensive lines first of all where did 1:13:49 you go exactly to see what they were doing well I was at a command center with the UAV battalion say exactly where 1:13:55 that is because obviously they're operational security reasons um but you know they are slightly set back from the 1:14:02 very front line but they're sending their drones forward um to Recon where the Russians are advancing and what the 1:14:08 tactics the Russians were employing at this time is to try and infiltrate Ukrainian positions with three or four 1:14:14 um soldiers and then join as a big group to attack when they have more 1:14:20 forces let's just have a look at some of that footage and and maybe you could talk us through it because you were s were you seeing this as it as it was 1:14:26 happening weren't you yeah I was in the command center watching the feed with the commander of the major it happened 1:14:32 so this is one of the small groups of Russian infantry who trying to infiltrate Ukrainian positions so we saw the moving in groups of three or four 1:14:39 trying to get in into um Ukrainian positions undetected uh this group had 1:14:44 been already targeted by fpv drones and they were they were fleeing a house that would had been struck by fpv drones 1:14:52 repeatedly and a mortar until it set was set fire and they were trying to creep into the woods and get to another intact 1:14:58 house where they could take cover and you can see this is the house that they took cover in um but obviously the ukrainians could follow them on the 1:15:04 Drone feed and they continueed to hit them um and this time it was being struck by 122 millimeter artillery piece 1:15:11 um and you know that the ukrainians don't know when they strike these positions if they're in the house you what the success has been of that strike 1:15:18 so they just keep hitting the house until it either is is is burned down um or the Russians flee and go somewhere 1:15:24 else so it's it's a real game of catam mous because they're watching these positions for sometimes hours and on to 1:15:30 see if the Russians are dead or alive or if they try and come out and sneak out um they're using all the HED RS all the 1:15:37 um foliage that they can to try and avoid this is another Uh Russian position which is being hit by fpvs and 1:15:43 what the Russians are trying to do is they're trying to sneak into some of these buildings um and they stay there 1:15:49 three or four of them and then another group of three or four will try and go and they'll try and mass in in a particular place until there's enough 1:15:55 for them perhaps platoon or company straight to then attack a fortified Ukrainian position and so they're literally 1:16:01 picking off uh Russian troops in support of infantry men what 100 meters away or 1:16:07 so is that right right so the Ukrainian infantry are in other houses or other basements around these positions and the 1:16:14 Russians are trying to find a place a weak point that they can get in um and so sometimes the the the Infantry are 1:16:21 are pushing the Russians into a particular building um and then calling in the fpv strikes and so we're sitting 1:16:26 there um and you can hear the fpv Drone Pilots calling what they see on their drones and then the majer will pick up 1:16:33 he'll look at a particular drone feed he has several drone feeds to choose from on his screen we're just seeing one of them here but there's a big Bank of of 1:16:40 of monitors with different uh drone feeds on it he'll pick up one that's particularly interesting then issue 1:16:45 commands as to whether to uh launch fpv drone strikes against a particular Target um and they have a threshold for 1:16:53 doing that as well where you know they probably won't launch an fpv strike against one uh Soldier but if there's 1:16:58 three or four then they'll definitely start trying to take them out um you also met with the 30 seconds 1:17:04 Deputy Commander what did he have to say about the situation on the battlefield and especially about how the Ukrainian 1:17:11 government is handling recruitment at the moment so he the 32nd Brigade had been 1:17:16 brought in to try and hold the line around Tes because before it had been um held mostly by territorial defense and 1:17:23 another Brigade that was t and when they when that bgrade withdrew it created a 1:17:28 weakness um in that sector uh that the Russians were able to exploit the Russians are fighting much smarter now 1:17:36 they're exploiting positions where there are weaker Ukrainian units rather than weaker fortifications they're not looking at the fortifications they're 1:17:41 looking at the units and attacking those um and that's allowing them to flank stronger units with some success uh and 1:17:48 and what this uh the lieutenant colonel said to me is he was frustrated with the Ukrainian government because they hadn't 1:17:53 mobilized troops quicker enough and they weren't mobilizing them successfully enough and in the wrong way because he 1:17:59 felt that the message that was getting out to Ukrainian Society is that we need more troops because there are so many 1:18:04 casualties and he said that look it's it's not the case that everyone that comes to the front line is dying you 1:18:10 know during a campaign five to seven people might die 20 to 30 might get injured which ranges from serious 1:18:15 injuries to to very light injuries but they need to go to hospital um and then others might withdraw from the front 1:18:21 because they they're sick or they're unhealthy um because they spent long at the front eating unhealthy Foods or 1:18:26 drinking energy drinks all the time which is what the soldiers that do um and they they simply need a break and so 1:18:32 he wants the messaging of the Ukrainian government to change to say look these these there's so many soldiers who've been fighting now for two and a half 1:18:38 years it's your duty to go forward and and to take up position just to give these guys a Break um but instead the 1:18:45 messaging seems to be like we don't have enough people because our casualties are so severe or there is no messaging to to 1:18:50 counter that information um and so he's very frustrated that the motivation isn't there from um ukrainians there's 1:18:57 just a fear there's just a tactic of fear to try and coerce people to go to the front round them up um and not 1:19:04 Inspire them positively but just terrorize them into joining and and of the troops that you met that were there 1:19:10 did you feel that they wanted to be there they hadn't been coerced as you were saying that he was thinking that he was fearing I mean did you feel they had 1:19:17 a strong still strong sense of of of moral courage and and reason to be there 1:19:22 I think well the troops that we spoke to did feel like that but it it's always a difficult one because you're speaking to troops that agree to give you an 1:19:28 interview um so people that will give you an interview are more likely to be motivated they want the world to 1:19:34 understand what they're doing um so he did a kind of self- selecting process really 1:19:39 there really interested to also hear about your time in havv Diva Can you tell me a bit more about what you did 1:19:46 there so I was spending time with the 47th Brigade it's this brigade that's very well equipped with us Abrams tanks 1:19:52 and and Bradley's um and they been brought in to try and hold the line around psk they've been in some of the 1:19:58 fiercest fighting they were the spearhead of the the summer counter offensive and then they will brought in to try and hold lines at adka so they've 1:20:05 taken very he heavy casualties but they're still being used because they have these very effective fighting Vehicles the Bradley and the Bradley 1:20:12 have proved to be very resistant even to drone strikes they have a very effective 1:20:18 gun the bush Master Cannon which is very good at clearing um Russian positions and making short work of any Russian 1:20:25 armored fighting vehicles that they come up against so they have been thrown into battle time and time again in some of 1:20:30 the most difficult places I was just going to say to you I mean uh they always want more and they I think you 1:20:36 you wrote in your dispatch that they want more of these uh combat vehicles um how are they actually using them with 1:20:42 their sparse resources as they see it so the way that they use these fighting Vehicles has changed I think from the 1:20:48 way that the Bradley were envisioned to be used but they are basically waiting until there is a large Target of 1:20:54 opportunity maybe it's a tank maybe it's a Russian fighting vehicle or maybe it's a Ukrainian position that's about to be 1:20:59 overrun and then they're called in from a distance um by a commander using a drone feed guided using a drone feed you 1:21:06 know to the extent almost like you're playing a computer going left and right and the driver just follows the instructions and then if they they fire 1:21:13 at the Target that they're given by the commander um it's not really engaging targets of opportunity it's very 1:21:18 specific kind of a fire mission almost um that they're told to to go on uh 1:21:23 their fire is corrected by commanders using your drones and then they have to pull back very quickly because they are a priority Target for Russian drones and 1:21:30 artillery attack it's hotly contested this part of the dbass isn't it how how effective are 1:21:36 these vehicles proving so they're saving a lot of lives and the ukrainians really like them they're very happy with these vehicles 1:21:42 because lots of the vehicles will get hit four five six times and they'll still be able to drive out of there or 1:21:48 even if they have to drive some distance on fire and then then Evacuate the troops they're able to do that and most 1:21:54 the the troops inside will be alive um so the the crews that drive them credit them with saving lots of lives they also 1:22:01 say the weapon the bush Master Cannon is incredibly effective at piercing Russian armor uh and making short work of 1:22:06 Russian infantry that are coming towards them so they're really really keen on them and they say actually the arm of the brades the reactive explosive armor 1:22:14 is better even than the US abrs which have had a lot of problems with the kind of new form of warfare and Russian drone 1:22:21 attacks that's fascinating um last time I SP spoke to you um you'd been in the H 1:22:27 region and I was just wondering if you were able to C catch up with any of your contacts there and get an idea of what's 1:22:32 going on so it looks like the har region is from a Ukrainian perspective more or less stable but the ukrainians have had 1:22:38 to throw in a lot of troops um and a lot of equipment a lot of their ammunition supplies have gone in the har direction 1:22:46 to try and push the Russians back away from hard it's such an important city city for one and a half million people 1:22:52 and they have driven you can see on some of the maps that are produced they have driven the the Russians back from lip 1:22:58 sea which is this really key area if the Russians had got into lip sea they could have used those Heights to to bring 1:23:04 Barrel artillery to bear on the city itself and they haven't gotten there and even in V Chans uh the ukrainians have 1:23:10 managed to push the Russians back from certain areas and even perhaps encircle some Russian units who are stuck in fans 1:23:17 there um the fighting is still very fierce in in that area but it doesn't look like the Russians are able to 1:23:22 advance there they they ground to really and how does your experience in the front line this time compared to 1:23:29 what you experienced and saw in V CH and lipy it's a it's a different situation I 1:23:35 think because it's you know the at liy and chance situation was very Dynamic the Russians were moving forward it was 1:23:41 Al always a bit worrying when you going somewhere with the Ukrainian unit because you didn't know where the lines were going to change and you know we 1:23:47 were in that Foxhole where um the Russians ended up being within automatic weapons range you could hear the 1:23:53 automatic weapons which is not place you really want to be um whereas in the donbass they are pushing forward but 1:23:59 it's it's it's attrition so you can see that they're trying to creep forward and they they do get strongholds and they 1:24:04 use their Manpower advantage to to get forward and they are advancing rapidly quick like relatively rapidly it's you 1:24:10 know it's kind of 10 kilometers in the in two weeks um which is significant given the pace of this war normally but 1:24:16 you can normally you be able to tell that the Russians are coming they're driving forward and you'll be able to be 1:24:22 in quite a stable place you know you won't be in danger of being overrun when you go to visit the Frontline 1:24:28 position and during this reporting trip you wrote A dispatch um very interesting dispatch about Ukraine's partisans and 1:24:35 in particular the resistance movement in Crimea can you tell us who they are 1:24:41 exactly so this is a group called aesh which in cran tataa means fire um and 1:24:47 they are resistance movement primarily in Crimea but also they've employed some people in uh Russia itself and they have 1:24:54 a mix of of motivations so they they there is a strong crime in Tatar Community or at least there was prior to 1:25:01 occupation uh in Crimea and they have traditionally resisted the Russian occupation you know Stalin deported 1:25:08 hundreds of thousands of tatars from Crimea and they have they have this kind of historic memory of this um Behavior 1:25:13 by the Russians so they have been attacking um Putin's Railway which he 1:25:18 wants to build as a to create a land bridge from the from Russia all the way through occupied South of Ukraine to 1:25:25 Crimea and replace the Kirch Bridge as the kind of the main um Supply Route into Crimea um and they're trying to 1:25:32 kind of foil this effort by blowing up sections of tracks track and and burning relay boxes um they also use cash 1:25:41 payments to recruit Russians who might be already disgruntled with the Kremlin 1:25:47 um and this is a big part of their recruitment campaign their posters always have someone you know handing out tons of cash so it's an offering cash 1:25:53 reward if you willing to do something um against the Russian 1:25:59 State how difficult was it to make contact with them it's pretty difficult although you 1:26:04 know all of these operations have a kind of information operations element to them so they have a telegram Channel and that's partly how they recruit new members they try and do as much of this online as possible so they don't expose their operatives their agents to the risk of a face-to-face meeting when they know the FSB are trying to infiltrate their group so we had to run to um the telegram channel that they were operating um and then you know we had to verify them with Ukraine's Military Intelligence to make sure this was the real telegram Channel because there's also the FSB have set up a fake telegram channel in order to try and lure unsuspecting ukrainians or Crimean Tas or Russians into um communicating with the FSB and demonstrating their sympathy for a partan movement so you telling me about how they're trying to sabotage the the Russian war effort by attacking the the railway links can you and and there's one person in particular who you wrote about and you feature can you tell me a little bit more about this sabur so there was a young lad who's 1:27:03 actually Russian um who was sabotaging um areas of the rail inside Russia inside the rosof region and he was set setting fire to relay boxes and he'd been recruited quite recently by aesh and he told about his experience and how nerra is because he know he knew that if the FSB caught him you know it wasn't a question of how many years in he think about how badly he'd be tortured and if he just he disappeared altogether because this is kind of Putin's personal project this great railroad that will secure the future of Crimea is something Putin has very carefully invested in and he has announced it himself in March this year so he was talking about the worry that he had even to do this kind of relatively minor Act of sabotage which is basically getting together an explosive liquid pouring it onto a relay box and setting fire to it which is still very disruptive to the Russians um been doing so he went to reconter the root several times and he actually in order to kind of bolster his courage I think and also to give him some cover he went on a date he organized a date and he said he was going to visit this girl 1:28:05 um and then during their walks he would look at the relay boxes and figure out how the best way to get there and get back was without being caught and she didn't know anything about this his mission his real Mission his real objective um but he thought if he was captured he could say look I just went to this area because I was going for a walk with my date and what was his motivation to take such risks so he said he was frustrated with how many people in his area were coming back from the front they were coming back from the front line either as alcoholics because they're so traumatized by what they've been through or as he said cripples because they've been injured um by the fighting and he didn't want to become one of those people and he thought that he might well be pressed into going to the front himself anyway he wanted to take some kind of almost a preemptive revenge on the Russian state for doing this to his community and potentially doing it to him as well you mentioned earlier the kind of 1:29:00 the fake telegram channels that the Russians have taken up to try the FSB has taken up to set up to try and catch people um what other measures are they taking to try and thwart this so the Russians have tried to fortify this area of Railway they put up defensive there's there's armored vehicle patrols there's lots of surveillance cameras um they've got uh patrols regularly going infantry patrols regularly going on along the lines and they're trying to um Whenever there is a sabotage attack they go into the villages nearby and basically Turn The Villages inside out to try and find out if there are any partisan sympathizers that they go into houses they check people's phones they search houses and some of the villages if they suspect them they basically disappeared and we're not really sure what happens to them after that and also fake partisans they they have as well so yeah the FSB have been so desperate to to integrate into infiltrate this movement they have um put forward people who would uh offer 1:30:01 themselves as partisans in order to kind of win the trust of the atesh coordinators uh and atesh had very successfully exploited this and theyve persuaded some of the the Russian FSB agencies they say they identify with the help of Ukrainian intelligence um and once they identify them they ask them to to do tasks for them as if they were a genuine partis and they say they persuaded some FSB operatives to do things as such as setting recruitment centers on fire with Molotov cocktails in order to prove their loyalty to the partisan movement Maxon you have only just got back but a lot happens also since you got back and I'm guessing if you're in the country you might be heading up to Sumi right now can you tell me when you sort of State take a step back how how you how you um what you takeaways are from this trip and what's been happening in recent days sure well I think the situation that Don Bass is pretty dire for the ukrainians they're being pushed back and the weakness in terms of Manpower is being exploited now the ukrainians always a really big gamble in 1:31:03 pushing their forces across the border from Sumi into Russia you know those are forces that could be used to to bolster forces in the dbass and I think they're taking a gamble that they can preempt the possible Russian attack on sui which is just across the border it's a major city for for Ukraine um and they can also divert some of those Russian forces from the donbass North or maybe if if the Russians don't divert resources they will continue with a very ambitious operation to take and hold territory inside Russia that will be useful if they are forced to go to the negotiating table by a possible Trum Trump presidency in November they can offer that the land that they've taken in exchange for some of the recent gains made by Russia Max tuo it's been great speaking to you thank you so much for your time thanks for having me Kate you've been watching Frontline for times radio with Me Kate chabo my thanks to our producers today Lou sites and Morgan berdick and for you for watching if you'd like to support us you can subscribe now or you can listen to times radio for the latest news and in-depth analysis or go to the times.co.uk for now though thanks for watching bye-bye

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