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Date: 2025-08-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027186
THE UKRAINE WAR
TIMES RADIO TALKS WITH BILL BROWDER

Times Radio: Incursion into Russia's Kursk region leaves Putin looking 'weak' ... Aug 8, 2024


Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X16E4pJ5Cog
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess
Incursion into Russia's Kursk region leaves Putin looking 'weak' | Bill Browder

Times Radio

901K subscribers

Aug 8, 2024

Frontline | The War in Ukraine and Global Security

'The symbolism of that is extreme because now, how does Putin characterise this in this own sort of hermetically sealed special military operation?'

The incursion into Russia's Kursk region will leave Putin's generals with a difficult choice of continuing to push into donetsk or move troops to repel the attack, Bill Browder tells Frontline on #timesradio

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Transcript
  • 0:00
  • that Russia has to sort of reevaluate
  • where they're allocating their limited
  • resources and of course Russia is a much
  • bigger country than Ukraine they've got
  • many more troops and much more equipment
  • but all of a sudden now that if they
  • don't do something to stop this Advance
  • which means pulling people out of
  • aggressing in Ukraine um it could get
  • worse for them and so this this has a
  • lot of implications I think it's worth
  • watching very closely over the next days
  • and weeks and and U as somebody who
  • supports Ukraine wholeheartedly I'm I'm
  • very excited and encouraged by this new
  • development and I think it's um it it
  • shows the creativity and and the genius
  • of of the Ukrainian military commanders
  • do you think there's any significance in
  • terms of the prisoner agreements on the
  • on the war in
  • Ukraine um I don't think it has any real
  • impact on the war in Ukraine I mean uh I
  • think that that the war in Ukraine is
  • going on and it will continue to go on
  • Putin needs this war in order to stay

  • 1:00
  • firmly in power he needs to show
  • everybody that he's a strong man and
  • this war does that for him um the
  • ukrainians are not not going to give up
  • territory nor give up in any way because
  • if they do you know the brutality and
  • the murder and rape and and other
  • terrible things that they do and
  • occupied Ukraine and so right now what
  • you have is is you know both sides
  • firmly dug in and and there's I there's
  • no end to this war in sight in my
  • opinion I mean I asked that because I've
  • heard one or two people suggest that
  • somehow The Prisoner agreement may show
  • that negotiations are possible between
  • Russia and the West when it comes to
  • Ukraine the problem I suppose with that
  • is most of the people who are suggesting
  • negotiations are implicitly saying that
  • would involve Ukraine seeding Sovereign
  • territory well um there are no
  • negotiations I mean the only negotiation
  • that should be had is a withdrawal
  • agreement from from Ukraine that if
  • Russia agrees to withdraw their their
  • troops from from Ukrainian Sovereign
  • territory then then the negotiation
  • should be you know and under what
  • conditions they withdraw their troops

  • 2:00
  • um any other negotiation doesn't make
  • any sense I mean Russia invaded Russia
  • should with should withdraw um there
  • there's no uh anybody suggesting
  • otherwise is just suggesting
  • capitulation and capitulation and
  • appeasement only leads to you know um
  • other Terrible Things Putin doesn't view
  • compromise and weakness um as a way of
  • de-escalating he he gets he he gets more
  • excited and more enraged and more
  • aggressive when he sees
  • weakness let's talk about a major
  • development over the past few days which
  • is a Ukrainian incursion into the kers O
  • blast of Russia if you're Vladimir Putin
  • sitting in the kremin is that what
  • really concerns you when the war
  • physically comes to Russian territory I
  • I think this is a a dramatic development
  • and and something which uh both
  • symbolically and militarily um really
  • has huge implications symbolically this
  • makes Putin look weak it makes him look
  • like he can't you know he he started
  • what they what he described as a special

  • 3:01
  • military operation he he even prosecuted
  • people who called it a war he called it
  • called this thing a war you since to
  • jailed eight years so this special
  • military operation the purpose of
  • calling it that was to make it seem like
  • it's something far away very defined not
  • affecting the Russian people and all of
  • a sudden a piece of Russia has been
  • annexed by Ukraine and and I'm maybe
  • going a little ahead of myself it's only
  • a few tens of kilometers but the
  • symbolism of that is is is Extreme um
  • because now how does Putin characterize
  • this in this own sort of hermetically
  • sealed special military operation this
  • is a war where that he started which is
  • now bitten off a piece of Russia and
  • depending on how this plays itself out
  • how long they can hold the territory can
  • they get more territory it's even more
  • humiliating for Putin the other thing it
  • does is is it means that that Russia has
  • to sort of re-evaluate where they're
  • allocating their limited resources and
  • of course Russia is a much bigger
  • country than Ukraine they've got many

  • 4:01
  • more troops and much more equipment but
  • all of a sudden now that if they don't
  • do something to stop this Advance which
  • means pulling people out of aggressing
  • in Ukraine um it could get worse for
  • them and so this this has a lot of
  • implications I think it's worth watching
  • very closely over the next days and
  • weeks and and U as somebody who supports
  • Ukraine wholeheartedly I'm I'm very
  • excited and encouraged by this new
  • development and I think it's um it it
  • shows the creativity and and the genius
  • of of the Ukrainian military
  • commanders the point about where Russia
  • allocates resources is a really critical
  • one and and there have been reports in
  • recent weeks even that the Putin has
  • asked for air defenses to be transferred
  • away from Ukraine into Russia to look
  • after his presidential palaces in Moscow
  • and in SOI what do you make of that bill
  • well what what it shows is is that
  • Ukraine's um uh drone strategy that
  • Ukraine's um grinding down of of

  • 5:02
  • Russia's um uh um uh equipment all over
  • 5:06
  • the place is working uh it's you know
  • 5:09
  • Ukraine is a total Underdog but they're
  • 5:11
  • they're a very effective Underdog that
  • 5:13
  • they they have used what limited tools
  • 5:16
  • they have to the maximum uh advantage to
  • 5:19
  • harm Russia and to harm Putin and and um
  • 5:21
  • you know everybody thought this war was
  • 5:23
  • going to be over in three days and and
  • 5:24
  • now we're two and a half years into it
  • 5:26
  • and and Russia is suffering and of
  • 5:28
  • course Ukraine has suffered profly and
  • 5:31
  • and and uh you know nothing can take
  • 5:33
  • that away but Russia is suffering as
  • 5:34
  • well and and they in addition to them
  • 5:37
  • moving you know air defenses away from
  • 5:39
  • Ukraine to protect Putin's palaces um
  • 5:42
  • Russia has lost half a million I think
  • 5:44
  • it's the number is going close to
  • 5:46
  • 600,000 soldiers according to Ukrainian
  • 5:48
  • estimates I mean a thousand a day and
  • 5:51
  • just to put this in perspective the
  • 5:52
  • entire Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
  • 5:56
  • over a 10-year period they lost 15,000
  • 5:58
  • soldiers they've lost six 600,000 now or

  • 6:00
  • 580,000 or whatever the the accurate
  • 6:02
  • number is but a huge huge number and and
  • 6:06
  • um that's that's unbelievable I mean
  • 6:09
  • it's it's shocking it's beyond
  • 6:11
  • comprehension the the amount of of death
  • 6:14
  • destruction and disability that that
  • 6:16
  • Russia that Putin has inflicted on his
  • 6:18
  • own people I suppose that does raise the
  • 6:21
  • question though why is Putin not paying
  • 6:22
  • the political price at home for the
  • 6:25
  • casualty rate that the Soviets did for
  • 6:26
  • the casualty rate in
  • 6:28
  • Afghanistan um because he's running an
  • 6:30
  • absolute dictatorship um and and and
  • 6:33
  • maybe it was a dictatorship before but
  • 6:36
  • it's a much more pernicious dictatorship
  • 6:38
  • right now where if you're a mother who's
  • 6:40
  • lost a child and you say something um
  • 6:43
  • bad about that you end up losing your
  • 6:45
  • pension maybe losing your apartment
  • 6:47
  • maybe even going to jail and so
  • 6:48
  • everybody is just sitting in absolute
  • 6:50
  • Terror and fear and heartbreak about
  • 6:52
  • what's What's happen and and there's
  • 6:54
  • nothing they can do about it and and and
  • 6:56
  • there is some Putin has sort of
  • 6:58
  • reallocated pain towards the least

  • 7:01
  • politically um influential people to the
  • 7:04
  • to the extent that there's any politics
  • 7:06
  • what he's done is he's subjected the
  • 7:08
  • poorest the most minority people in
  • 7:11
  • Russia to the death and destruction so
  • 7:13
  • if you're in bachia or inea or or some
  • 7:18
  • very far away place from Moscow there's
  • 7:20
  • a very high chance that that your
  • 7:22
  • children or your brother or or you're
  • 7:25
  • yourself are somehow affected by this if
  • 7:27
  • you're in Moscow and St Petersburg where
  • 7:29
  • the wealthy people are there's a much
  • 7:31
  • lower chance but at the end of the day
  • 7:33
  • everybody is affected by this it doesn't
  • 7:35
  • it doesn't bypass anybody and the the
  • 7:38
  • cemeteries are full in all sorts of
  • 7:40
  • places in Moscow by dead people and and
  • 7:43
  • sooner or later that has to have an
  • 7:44
  • effect but but as long as there is the
  • 7:47
  • risk of of retaliation by the state
  • 7:50
  • everybody is just keeping quiet and do
  • 7:52
  • you think but we might be close to Putin
  • 7:54
  • being forced to resort to calling up
  • 7:56
  • young men from the big cities of Moscow
  • 7:58
  • and St Petersburg and if he does that is

  • 8:00
  • that really the moment of Maximum
  • political Peril for him well at the
  • moment right now what what he's doing is
  • he's paying more and more money to pay
  • people to go to fight in the war and so
  • again you get the poor people who are
  • ready to do almost anything for money um
  • and so that the the amount of payment to
  • people to fight in the war has has gone
  • up by several hundred percent because
  • they're trying they're sort of scraping
  • the bottom of the barrel but eventually
  • they will have to do a conscription and
  • as they do that conscription then then
  • there is you know no matter
  • um what I mean if if you're if you're
  • going to die um in war you have a much
  • better um you you're not so worried
  • about protesting being called off to
  • battle and so I think that there's you
  • know that's why he's trying to avoid it
  • is he knows that that even with his
  • repression if they do a general
  • conscription in this this pointless War
  • um that that does put him at some risk
  • of people getting angry and doing stuff
  • thank you for watching Frontline for
  • times radio for more on global sec
  • security and the war in Ukraine you can
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