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GEOPOLITICS SUPPORT FOR THE UKRAINE WAR Times Radio: Russia defenceless to Ukrainian drones in major embarrassment for Putin \| Michael Clarke Times Radio ... Kate Sheboe with Michael Clarke PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCX4R2GG2wk Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Russia defenceless to Ukrainian drones in major embarrassment for Putin \| Michael Clarke April 11th 2024 772K subscribers ... 98K views ... 3.6K likes Michael Clarke joins Frontline to discuss the future of NATO, … Times Radio Description Russia defenceless to Ukrainian drones in major embarrassment for Putin \| Michael Clarke Michael Clarke joins Frontline to discuss the future of NATO, Russia's upcoming offensive and the prospect of a Trump presidency. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Explore the podcast 242 episodes Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Times Radio Podcasts Transcript Michael Clark Professor Clark is a former director general of the British Think Tank rusi he's a regular defense and security analyst for Sky News and bfbs sitrep and he's a prolific writer his next publication Great British commanders is out later this year Michael Clark great to see you again um we were talking last week about the possibility of a pending Russian offensive push in Ukraine have you seen any signs which give you as an idea of when and where that might be yes um I think it's starting now in effect partly that's determined as it always is in Ukraine by the weather so it's been a very wet spring it is drying up now and in a way the campaign season begins around about the end of April beginning of May and so we can see first a lot of air attacks are built up on cities particularly kiv um but also we can see that Russian um Strategic Air Forces are moving towards their bases in Western Russia so um satellite imagery shows how many aircraft the Russians are being bringing into the theater for the use of of of Fairly extensive air assets I think and we can see that they're pushing more or less all the way around the front so there's quite a big push on 1:44 uh Northwest of adiva I mean the 1:46 Russians took out divar about a month 1:48 ago and they're now trying to push 1:49 Northwest of that to keep on going 1:51 they're not getting too far because the 1:53 ukrainians are now digging in there but 1:55 the Russians are pushing they're 1:57 building up Force to Kuan I think in 1:59 probably an attempt to take back kiv 2:02 oblas kiv region which goes hand inand 2:05 with this apparent determination to keep 2:07 on bombing kave the city so we can see 2:09 all of this happening and more activity 2:12 um round the round in the South um the 2:15 ukrainians didn't get as far as tokmak 2:16 in their southern uh offensive driving 2:20 south from oriv but the Russians are 2:22 trying to take back now the 30 or so 2:25 kilometers that they lost at that time 2:27 again they've only had limited um 2:29 success yes but all the time every day 2:31 the ukrainians are having to pull back a 2:33 little bit more a little bit more it's 2:34 it's half a kilometer a day something 2:36 like that and the Russians are paying 2:38 dearly for it their casualties at the 2:40 moment are about 315,000 that's dead and 2:44 wounded seriously wounded by the end of 2:46 this year I'd be surprised if the 2:47 Russians aren't up to half a million 2:49 because of the way they do things but 2:51 you can see this push all the way around 2:52 the front is getting stronger every week 2:56 and it will reach some sort of uh 2:59 crescendo would guess during May when 3:02 the weather will be conducive then to 3:04 Bringing more main battle tanks forward 3:06 even though the Russians have lost over 3:08 2,000 main battle tanks they're still 3:10 going to keep going so you talk about 3:12 this buildup around the front um do you 3:14 get a sense yet of whether there will be 3:18 a a major push in one area or or is it 3:20 undecided yet it's not really clear um 3:24 at the moment the the push looks to be 3:26 all the way around the front and 3:27 certainly Ukrainian intellig 3:30 as far as they're speaking openly are 3:32 saying they expect the push to be all 3:34 the way around the front um if there is 3:38 an area of concentration I would guess 3:41 it would probably be in kupiansk um 3:43 because that's where the Russians have 3:44 got more forces it's closer to the 3:46 Russian border and the idea of taking 3:48 back the the the whole area of kiv the 3:52 oblast that they lost in a surprise 3:54 offensive uh surprise Ukrainian 3:56 offensive back in the Autumn of 2022 3:59 that would be very attractive to them on 4:01 the other hand I think the ukrainians 4:03 probably feel that they could hold them 4:05 um in kiv whereas the ukrainians are 4:07 more vulnerable I think probably in the 4:09 South because they've been fighting 4:11 harder there if I was a Russian general 4:14 I'd be more interested in the 4:16 possibilities of pushing from the South 4:17 but that's just as I look at the map um 4:20 from this distance but looking at what 4:24 the Russians seem to be doing they look 4:26 as if they're inclining more towards an 4:28 offens of inak but that might be a faint 4:31 that might be you know misinformation 4:32 and they might try to pull something off 4:35 further south as a in a way that would 4:37 surprise Kia that would also be a 4:39 possibility and how is Ukraine trying to 4:41 influence where those major attacks 4:43 might be well the ukrainians are doing 4:45 two things I mean one is they're digging 4:47 in all the way around the front and the 4:49 reason that the Russians are still 4:50 finding it Hardo they are making ground 4:52 but nothing dramatic because the 4:54 ukrainians are now doing what the 4:55 Russians were doing last year which is 4:57 sewing lots of Mine Fields putting traps 5:00 down putting in obstacles and and 5:02 digging in physically digging in trench 5:04 lines in the way they haven't had to for 5:07 uh some time um but also the ukrainians 5:11 are making it clear by attacking inside 5:13 Russia itself these attacks on the oil 5:15 refineries and on um concentrations of 5:19 logistics inside Russia the ukrainians 5:22 almost I think almost would like to 5:24 provoke the Russians that if they're 5:25 going to attack anywhere attack around 5:28 Kaku because I think the ukrainians feel 5:29 they can probably do better there than 5:31 in the South and in a way because the 5:34 the east of the country or the the the 5:36 North and the East is the area right 5:38 around the Russian border the sense that 5:41 the ukrainians are attacking over the 5:43 border into Russia is very embarrassing 5:45 for Putin and Putin has said openly is 5:49 reported to have said openly to his 5:51 security Chiefs I want a belt of buffer 5:54 zone I want a buffer zone you know our 5:56 on the other side of our border so I 5:58 want I want you to to take a a piece of 6:00 Ukrainian territory um which gives us a 6:03 buffer zone for places like Belgard and 6:05 rostov which are suffering from 6:06 Ukrainian attacks and I think the 6:09 attempt to take a whole belt of 6:10 territory all the way around that border 6:13 would be quite challenging and if the 6:15 ukrainians feel well we're going to 6:16 we're going to face a Russian offensive 6:18 anyway of sorts this Autumn uh this 6:21 Summer and Autumn then it'd be better if 6:23 if they try to do this belt idea for us 6:26 than if they attack as an arrow 6:28 somewhere further south where they might 6:30 actually break through and for the 6:31 ukrainians what they really fear is that 6:34 the Russians might take denpro or zapia 6:38 if they took one of those really big 6:39 places then the idea of carrying on up 6:43 the Nea River going northwards towards 6:45 KV that would be a bit of a nightmare 6:46 for them and what do you think will 6:48 characterize the next few months of the 6:50 ground war because you have Russia 6:51 effectively poised to go on the 6:53 offensive which it finds more difficult 6:55 than defending and and Ukraine having to 6:57 defend with soldiers virtually looking 6:59 over their shoulders to see if the ammo 7:01 and artillery rounds are still coming 7:03 yeah I mean it's going to be an armed 7:04 wrestle uh as both sides struggle 7:07 neither side are capable of mounting a 7:09 strategic offensive until sometime next 7:12 year we would guess the spring of 2025 7:15 and so until then they're sort of arm 7:16 wrestling each other on the basis of 7:19 forces which are fairly exhausted which 7:22 are not particularly well supplied and 7:24 although the Russians are bringing in up 7:25 to another 100,000 troops on top of the 7:28 450 odd thousand they've got there now 7:30 they're very very untrained they're just 7:33 bringing them in as Canon fod quite 7:35 literally um and the ukrainians would 7:37 kill them all if they had the ammunition 7:38 but they're running out of ammunition 7:40 now if the ukrainians get the ammunition 7:42 then they will certainly give a good 7:44 account of themselves as they arm 7:45 wrestle the Russians for the rest of the 7:47 year and the ukrainians I think although 7:50 they can't mount a strategic offensive 7:51 they'll try to pull off probably some 7:53 surprise operations perhaps in in the 7:56 naval sphere in the Baltic perhaps 7:58 against Crimea which is a lucrative 8:00 Target for them I'm sure they'll try 8:02 some things to unbalance the Russians to 8:04 embarrass Putin to actually worry the 8:06 Russians and I have no idea what they 8:07 would be I I could guess but I mean it 8:09 would be pure guesswork and but the 8:11 issue really is whether they can find 8:14 the ammunition and of course the 8:15 ammunition is in America unless or until 8:18 America releases its 60 billion in Aid 8:20 package it's it's not 60 billion of 8:22 money that they will give to Kev it's 60 8:24 billion which they will spend sending 8:27 ammunition their ammunition could go 8:29 could be on the front line in 10 days 2 8:31 weeks once they allocate the money to 8:33 send that ammunition and then the money 8:35 is actually spent making up the stocks 8:37 for America's own forces um however 8:40 there is a little bit of good news 8:41 Estonia think that they found another 8:44 1.3 million artillery shells for Ukraine 8:47 which they can gather together the Czech 8:49 Republic have been very good they think 8:50 they' found another one and a half 8:52 million artillery shells in the world 8:55 and if the European Union or country 8:57 like Japan is prepared to put the cash 8:58 in to two to three billion dollars they 9:01 could buy them immediately and then 9:03 they'd be in the front line in a little 9:05 while the issue for the ukrainians is 9:08 that is a big strategic choice if they 9:10 think that no more ammunition in 9:12 significant Amounts is going to arrive 9:15 then they have to keep on rationing what 9:16 they've got which means they just fall 9:18 back and fall back if they are confident 9:21 that more stuff will arrive during the 9:23 spring and summer then they'll use up 9:25 what they've got and they'll give a much 9:27 better account of themselves but they 9:29 don't know they can't be sure that they 9:31 are going to be backed up with more 9:33 ammunition so that's their problem do 9:35 they do they ration what they've still 9:37 got or do they bring it all forward and 9:39 use it because they're confident that 9:40 more will arrive in the next month or so 9:43 it is an absolutely impossible situation 9:45 isn't it um Can can you explain U the 9:48 threat that's being posed to Ukrainian 9:50 forces by Russia's Mass use of guided 9:52 bombs how do they work and how lethal 9:54 are they Pro Prov proving yeah they work 9:56 very simply and they're very lethal they 9:59 they call the Fab 500 the Fab 500 or the 10:02 Fab 1500 and what that refers to is 10:06 either 500 kilogram bomb which is you 10:08 know 1000 PB bomb um or A500 kilogram 10:12 bomb which is a 3,000 pound bomb So you 10:15 you're talking about bombs of um you 10:17 know up to one and a half tons and so on 10:20 and the Russians are even talking about 10:21 a Fab 3000 3,000 kilog which should be 10:24 6,000 PB bomb so a three ton bomb now 10:27 there's some question about whether 10:28 that's really feasible but there 10:29 certainly a Fab 500 and a Fab 1500 and 10:32 what they are is oldfashioned bombs old 10:35 iron gravity bombs just big bombs and 10:37 the Russians have found a way of putting 10:39 cheap Wings onto them little flip out 10:41 wings and a cheap GPS guidance system so 10:45 um Russian bombers an Su 24 or an su2 10:49 can be 50 or 60 miles behind the front 10:51 line flying up at say 25 30,000 ft even 10:55 lower than that they release the bomb 10:57 the wings flip out and the bomb is able 10:59 to Glide up to anything 25 sometimes 30 11:03 miles before it reaches its Target and 11:06 it's guided onto its Target by GPS 11:09 there's almost no defense against this 11:10 and these are big explosions you can't 11:12 shoot them down because it's just a bomb 11:14 flying through the air it's not a 11:15 missile but it has the it has the same 11:18 characteristics of a missile because it 11:20 can find its Target even with cheap GPS 11:24 and they have done enormous damage to uh 11:27 forces on the front line to Ukrainian 11:29 for forces the only way the ukrainians 11:31 can counter these Fab 500s and Fab 1500s 11:34 is by pushing the aircraft which are way 11:37 behind the Russian front line out of the 11:39 battle area so the only way they can get 11:41 on top of this is for their own Air 11:43 Force as it were to be to be fighting 11:45 over the Russian side of the line now 11:47 they don't have an Air Force to do that 11:48 at the moment and even with f-16s even 11:51 with 100 or so f-16s by the summer or 11:54 Autumn of this year it'll probably be 11:56 too late to make a big difference and 11:58 these Glide bombs have been doing damage 11:59 to the Ukrainian line since last Autumn 12:02 and the Russians have have realized how 12:04 incredibly valuable they are they're 12:06 cheap they've got lots and lots of them 12:08 and they can make these old dumb iron 12:10 big bombs into literally flying bombs 12:13 that the ukrainians can't do very much 12:15 about and there's a report out saying um 12:17 that the ukra according to Ukrainian 12:19 government analysis up to 500 new ones 12:21 being fired a week and that they were 12:22 actually instrumental in retaking Aviva 12:26 they were they I mean soldiers in aiva 12:28 were reporting and 70 a day Landing in 12:31 their positions and every bomb creates 12:33 an enormous crater it just destroys you 12:35 know whatever's there you can't there's 12:37 there's no shelter from these things in 12:39 effect because they're such big bombs I 12:41 mean 500 kilo bomb th pound bomb um is a 12:44 big bomb and a a 3,000 pound bomb 1500 12:48 kilos which is what the Russians are 12:49 mainly using now just makes it just 12:51 takes out everything within that within 12:54 that zone so in a way it doesn't matter 12:55 how deep The Trenches are it it's very 12:58 very destructive and the Russians are 13:00 using them in very high numbers um if 13:03 one could think of a defense against 13:05 them other than attacking the aircraft 13:06 carrying them before they are released 13:09 then uh you know you'd be very popular 13:11 in K but nobody can think of a an 13:13 effective mechanism against them you 13:14 can't Jam them it's just a bomb flying 13:16 through the air you can't shoot them 13:18 down they're going too fast um you've 13:20 got not much time to work out what to do 13:23 about them because they're released by 13:24 an aircraft and they're on the ground 13:26 within 30 seconds or so uh they're 13:29 almost it's funny the the Russians have 13:31 put so much effort into modern 13:33 technologies that they claim are are you 13:36 know penetrative and all of them are 13:38 less than the Russians say they will be 13:40 but they've now discovered that good 13:41 oldfashioned bombs with wings on and GPS 13:43 systems are the most hardto defend 13:46 weapon that they've produced so far 13:49 you've mentioned um Ukraine's uh long 13:51 range strikes U over the border into 13:53 Russia itself can you tell us a bit more 13:55 about the kind of long range drones that 13:57 they're using successfully to strike 14:00 deep inside Russia from Ukraine and the 14:03 possibility of this capability being 14:04 expanded yeah it's very interesting that 14:06 the ukrainians because they're having to 14:08 be inventive and they're using drones 14:10 more and more so they're using a lot of 14:11 drones at the front line the fpvs the 14:13 called firsters Vision drones and they 14:15 and they are almost like um in Le of 14:19 artillery shells they're they're using 14:20 drones far more now uh and most the most 14:23 of the Russian tanks are taking out are 14:25 with those sort of drones tactical 14:26 drones but um the ones they're using 14:29 against Russia are a mixture of things 14:31 some of them are the old tupelov um 14:34 drone the old Soviet era drones which 14:36 they've re that used to be purely 14:39 non-lethal and they've made it very 14:41 lethal and it's it's an old Russian jet 14:43 basically so they've used some of those 14:45 they've built their own drones with 14:46 quite a long um range and they've used 14:50 light aircraft they've now discovered 14:52 that you can robotically fly a perfectly 14:55 good little cesna light aircraft pack it 14:57 with explosiv it's got a very big 14:58 Warhead 14:59 and so they've attacked refineries deep 15:01 inside Russia um using all of those 15:04 different things because a light 15:06 aircraft um has got such a low radar 15:08 signature and it fly it can make it Fly 15:10 slowly and erratically towards the 15:13 target um and it can all be done 15:16 remotely and they've been extremely 15:17 inventive about that and there's some 15:18 very dramatic footage out there of 15:21 little light Cesar aircraft flying into 15:24 a Refinery and a huge explosion 15:25 resulting uh from it that kind of attack 15:28 and and the that we saw recently on the 15:30 2nd of April where where a drone is 15:32 reported have traveled 800 miles into 15:34 Russia um hugely embarrassing for 15:36 President Putin yeah and these attacks 15:38 show um how poor Russia's air defense is 15:41 I mean it goes back to was it 1972 15:44 Matias rust uh was a young German lad 15:47 who flew a light aircraft into Moscow 15:49 and landed in Red Square as a stunt and 15:52 everybody said how could they possibly 15:53 allow that to happen well here we are 15:55 you know more than half a century later 15:57 and it can still happen R's air defense 15:59 is scaled against American high-tech 16:02 systems that's that's their their's 16:04 Target and anything that isn't an 16:06 American high-tech system has got quite 16:07 a good chance of getting through and so 16:09 it's a mixture of the wrong sort of 16:11 Defense systems they've got they've got 16:12 the and they've got these panser um 16:15 anti-missile systems got three of them 16:16 in Moscow that all overlap but they're 16:19 against incoming missiles um a a drone 16:22 flying low and slow or a light aircraft 16:24 flying low and slow is a different 16:26 problem altogether and uh it didn't just 16:29 the the the techn technology of the 16:31 systems which isn't very good their own 16:33 operation of them isn't very good 16:35 because they've never thought that they 16:36 would face this they never thought they 16:37 would face the idea of of attacks coming 16:40 from you know what used to be part of 16:42 the Soviet Union into their own deep 16:45 interior and so the the ukrainians have 16:47 been extremely impressive it's one of 16:49 the the few bright spots in the last 16:51 couple of months in the way that they've 16:52 been able to Target Russia's facilities 16:54 but of course there's a high political 16:55 price to pay for that it's bothering the 16:57 United States it has upset the Russian 17:00 refined petroleum products industry the 17:03 Russians are now going to Kazakhstan to 17:05 get the kazaks to supply petrol and 17:07 refined products because their own 17:08 refining capacity has taken a real hit 17:11 over the last two months um another 17:13 piece of uh optimistic news for Ukraine 17:16 is this 200 million pound investment by 17:18 UK and lvia um supplying long range 17:21 drones with automatic Target recognition 17:24 um how will they operate and what kind 17:27 of difference will they make yeah they 17:29 will operate and they can make a 17:30 difference um drones particularly long 17:33 range drones always use different sorts 17:35 of navigation so uh inertial navigation 17:39 where you just set it set a drone off on 17:40 a course is the is the obvious thing to 17:42 do but at some point a drone's then got 17:44 to look down and see what's there and 17:46 and map it against what um The Operators 17:48 know is there to find its Target and so 17:50 on and of course it can be can be jammed 17:53 but what the ukrainians are finding is 17:55 that their own civilian Technologies are 17:57 better than some of the military 17:58 Technologies of the West I mean they're 18:00 finding for instance that American 18:01 drones that they've been sent or given 18:04 are tend to be rather clumsy they're not 18:06 as as capable actually as the ones 18:08 they've developed themselves and so this 18:10 British Estonian Arrangement is an 18:13 attempt also to bring in this very 18:15 inventive high-tech sector that the 18:17 ukrainians themselves have got and the 18:19 estonians are pretty good at to bring 18:22 that sort of civil technology into long 18:24 range very accurate drones and ones that 18:28 can't EAS be um jammed because you know 18:31 in the early days of the war they put a 18:32 GPS tracker on the front of a drone and 18:35 that was okay but the Russians are quite 18:36 good at at at frustrating GPS GPS 18:39 trackers over a long distance so if they 18:42 got long enough to see the Drone moving 18:44 they can do something about the GPS 18:45 signals which the ukrainians can't do on 18:48 the Glide bombs we were talking about 18:50 because they don't have time to 18:51 frustrate the GPS trackers on those 18:53 sorts of things just to pick up on 18:55 something you were talking about before 18:56 the position that the ukrainians are in 18:58 in that they don't know if and when and 19:00 how many artillery rounds ammunition is 19:02 going to be provided by allies and 19:04 they're having to make calculations and 19:05 decisions based on what may or may not 19:07 arrive there's a recent quote by a 19:09 senior Ukrainian uh military official in 19:11 Politico complaining that they never get 19:14 the Western systems at the right time 19:15 and when they need them and when they do 19:17 arrive they're irrelevant he was 19:18 actually talking about specifically 19:19 about f-16s which he said would no 19:22 longer be relevant in the coming year do 19:25 you think um Ukraine's allies are ever 19:27 going to equip it to win the war it's a 19:30 very good question I mean so far the 19:33 Allies have been equipping Ukraine not 19:34 to lose um but not specifically to win 19:38 because the Allies are not really United 19:41 about what winning means I mean I've got 19:43 no problem in understanding what winning 19:44 means for me it's it's throwing the 19:46 Russians out of everything that they've 19:48 conquered since 19:49 2022 and that would look like winning 19:52 and then winning better than that would 19:53 be throw them out of some of the 19:55 territory they've conquered since n 2014 19:58 but but within the Allies themselves 20:00 there there's not a lot of agreement 20:02 upon that and there's a lot of 20:03 nervousness particularly in Germany 20:06 about giving Ukraine enough weapons to 20:08 really hurt the Russian forces and so 20:11 they they end up dithering between 20:12 giving the ukrainians just about what 20:14 they need to defend themselves always a 20:16 bit too late and more Ukrainian lives 20:18 are lost as a result of it but not 20:20 providing the weapons to allow the 20:21 ukrainians really to throw the Russians 20:23 out because too many Western politicians 20:26 are frightened of Russia if they are thr 20:28 out and in that sense I mean Putin has 20:31 got The Frighteners on a lot of Western 20:33 politicians um not here in the United 20:35 Kingdom but certainly in the United 20:37 States in Germany in Italy in parts of 20:40 southern Europe they they don't want him 20:42 to succeed but they don't want him to 20:45 fail because they're frightened of him 20:47 on the Diplomatic front Britain's 20:48 foreign secretary David Cameron stopped 20:50 off to see Donald Trump uh on his visit 20:52 to the UK uh us he's bound to have 20:54 talked about Aid to Ukraine and NATO 20:57 after Trump effectively invited Putin to 20:59 do whatever he liked to members who 21:01 didn't spend 2% of their GDP on defense 21:04 is the Panic setting in do you think 21:06 yeah I wouldn't describe it as panic but 21:08 certainly a sober sort of realization 21:11 that uh NATO will be in a different 21:14 place next year um whether Trump wins 21:16 the election or not even if Biden wins 21:18 the election nevertheless the atmosphere 21:20 in the United States is different now 21:23 than the way it was in 2022 and the Gaza 21:26 crisis is distracting America in a 21:28 pretty big way and that's not going to 21:30 go away anytime soon either so I think 21:32 there's there is a sense in NATO that 21:34 we're into a new phase now and that um 21:37 helping Ukraine defend itself will be 21:39 harder and more expensive than we 21:41 thought it would be originally um it 21:43 will be a longer term commitment and 21:46 also that that NATO although NATO is in 21:49 some respects stronger than it's ever 21:50 been in its history before as a result 21:52 of this uh invasion in all sorts of ways 21:55 nevertheless it's also very brittle and 21:57 this NATO of 32 nations may start to 22:01 dismantle itself under political 22:03 pressure certainly if Trump wins the 22:05 election a number of countries in 22:07 southern Europe in Hungary in Slovakia 22:09 in Austria um other countries not in 22:12 like Serbia is very protin they will 22:15 lean towards Russia on the assumption 22:17 that NATO is about to be deconstructed 22:21 and NATO will fall into a sort of a 22:23 tough-minded northern NATO and a very 22:26 soft-minded pro-russian minded or 22:29 philosophical about Russia sort of 22:30 minded Southern NATO and what what you 22:34 mean sorry Mike when you say that that 22:35 NATO might begin to be dismantled 22:37 exactly I think NATO might start to 22:39 dismantle itself because before I mean 22:42 if Trump is elected in November and 22:44 takes over in January between November 22:46 and January I would expect you know 22:48 Hungary and Slovakia Austria to start to 22:51 do deals with Russia and the Russians 22:53 will be very aware of this they'll start 22:55 to make attractive offers on gas uh on 22:58 oil Prov provision on sort certain sorts 23:00 of Aid there'll be a big propaganda push 23:03 and a lot of people in southern Europe 23:04 will say look the reality is the 23:06 Russians are going to get away with this 23:08 so we've got to adjust ourselves to that 23:09 it's no good saying that they must not 23:11 succeed the fact is they will succeed 23:13 and the new reality for us is that we 23:15 have to live with a resurgent Putin now 23:17 we won't say that in northern Europe the 23:19 Scandinavians certainly won't say it the 23:20 baltics won't we won't Poland won't but 23:23 we'll be a smaller group of Nations 10 23:25 Nations say in the north of of of Europe 23:28 with an uncertain America or an America 23:31 about whom we are uncertain and France 23:34 and Germany we don't quite know what 23:35 view they will take of it and so that 23:37 politically um NATO will begin to 23:40 fragment and will not find consensus on 23:43 what it thinks about his future 23:45 relations with Russia and if if if Trump 23:47 is elected that process will start the 23:50 day after the election very interesting 23:52 and quite a scary thought um in terms of 23:55 of David Cameron's visit to the US um he 23:59 he's trying to get this uh this Aid deal 24:01 that you mentioned the $61 billion US 24:03 package approved president zalinski has 24:06 said without it Ukraine will lose the 24:08 war and he will be wanting to pay paint 24:11 that worst case scenario won't he to 24:13 secure that package it is he right I 24:15 think he's right that if he doesn't get 24:17 that um package that Ukraine will lose 24:19 this year of the war which means they'll 24:21 lose more territory um and then it 24:24 becomes a question of whether zilinski 24:26 stays in power um what the Russians are 24:29 hoping for I think is not that they 24:31 could march to Kiev and take it over 24:34 this year but that they could put so 24:36 much pressure all the way round on uh on 24:39 on Ukraine that there would be um a 24:42 political coup in effect in Kiev 24:45 zalinski be removed and he' be replaced 24:47 by somebody who will do a deal I think 24:50 that's what they're probably hoping for 24:51 this year if the American Aid package 24:54 comes through that almost certainly 24:55 won't happen if it doesn't come through 24:57 there's a fair danger that but it will 24:59 happen um and other aid mean the the EU 25:02 Aid um that is being proposed me 50 25:05 billion euros is coming through in 25:08 stages NATO's own plan this um uh NATO 25:12 mission on Ukraine as stoltenberg talks 25:14 about it is 100 billion over five years 25:17 and even if that's agreed at the NATO 25:19 Summit in um in Washington in the summer 25:23 um that will come in in stages and the 25:25 problem is that that all of this is drip 25:27 feeding Ukraine and making life for 25:30 zalinski much harder if zalinski could 25:33 could get the hit of one big Aid package 25:36 which will keep Ukraine going then he 25:37 keeps his job if it looks as if for all 25:40 of his grand stand standing around the 25:42 world the world is still not prepared to 25:44 support Ukraine enough then his job is 25:47 on the line and that's really what it 25:48 comes down to he needs the political 25:51 popularity of bringing the world to 25:54 support Ukraine and that's not just a 25:55 financial issue it's a morale issue if 25:57 the Ukraine Ians feel that the world is 25:59 really supporting them the outside 26:01 Western world is really supporting them 26:03 they'll sign up to fight but if they 26:05 feel that the world is turning their 26:06 back on Ukraine and that they are going 26:08 to lose anyway this year and maybe next 26:10 year then why why turn up to fight why 26:13 not just accept the inevitable and so in 26:15 that respect this Aid package is really 26:17 really important one other point um is 26:21 that there is increasing interest in 26:23 having Japan step in also to provide Aid 26:26 because Japan interestingly as an Asian 26:29 power sees the Ukraine crisis in exactly 26:32 the same way as NATO sees it and as the 26:35 Biden Administration in the United 26:37 States sees it so though Japan is a long 26:39 way away and the other end of the the 26:40 other end of the globe from the Ukraine 26:42 crisis it is not beyond the bounds of 26:44 possibility that Ukraine could do 26:46 everybody that Japan could do everybody 26:48 a favor and step in with a a significant 26:50 financial package How likely is that 26:52 looking at the moment it's a proposal 26:55 and um kashida the Ukrainian I keep 26:58 saying I'll say that again it's a 27:00 proposal and the Japanese prime minister 27:03 Mr kashida is in Washington I don't 27:05 think they're going to make any 27:06 announcements about anything like that 27:07 but uh I think they may be talking about 27:10 it and discussing it and there's a lot 27:12 of interest in building on this Japanese 27:16 determination to help the West keep 27:19 Russia contained because they know that 27:22 a an ascendant Russia will also bolster 27:25 an ascendant China and then the Taiwan 27:28 crisis gets worse the whole East Asia 27:30 crisis or East Asia tensions gets worse 27:32 and so just as the Western world has has 27:34 as it were at least drawn A Line in the 27:37 Sand officially over Ukraine Japan seems 27:40 inclined to draw that same Line in the 27:41 Sand for the same reasons a Line in the 27:44 Sand where do you think Western thinking 27:46 is on Ukraine is it to give Ukraine just 27:48 enough to stop short of Victory but 27:50 enforce a stalemate um so that a 27:52 settlement can be found it's Unthinkable 27:55 to many ukrainians but how avoidable is 27:57 it I think the feels that if the 28:00 ukrainians eventually go to some sort of 28:03 ceasefire or peace talks on favorable 28:05 terms to them then that will be good 28:07 enough but only the ukrainians can 28:09 decide when they're prepared to 28:11 negotiate they shouldn't have to 28:13 negotiate under duress with 15% of their 28:16 territory being having been invaded by 28:20 uh a foreign power and so um there is 28:23 that sort of sense that the the Line in 28:25 the Sand is to support whatever 28:27 Ukraine's what whatever Ukraine's 28:28 decision is about what Ukraine decides 28:32 is effectively the line of Victory but 28:34 that of course is a rather um movable 28:37 line and that's one of the problems for 28:39 the West is that we talk about these 28:40 terms we'll back Ukraine for as long as 28:42 it takes we'll do whatever it takes we 28:44 say that but we don't know in our own 28:46 minds um what that really means as I say 28:49 I've got a very clear view in my mind 28:50 what that means but that's not the same 28:52 as as the um most State people in Europe 28:56 or even in Kia for that matter M Clark 28:58 great to speak to you thank you for your 29:00 time you've been watching Frontline for 29:02 times radio with me K jao if you'd like 29:04 to support us you can subscribe now or 29:06 listen to the times or go to the 29:08 times.co.uk my thanks to our producer 29:11 today Morgan berdick and to you for 29:13 watching bye for 29:16 now oh 29:19 sorry thank 29:23 you you've been watching Frontline for 29:26 times radio with me K 29:28 you could 29:30 sorry you've been watching Frontline for 29:32 times radio with M jao if you'd like to 29:35 support us you can subscribe now or 29:37 listen to times radio or go to the 29:39 times.co.uk my thanks to our producer 29:42 today Morgan berdick and to you for 29:44 watching bye for now

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