TrueValueMetrics ... Impact Accounting for the 21st Century

Date: 2026-03-03 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00025459

THE UKRAINE WAR RETIRED MAJOR GENERAL CHIP CHAPMAN Times Radio: ‘High probability’ Ukraine will breach Russian defensive lines by end of 2023 PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14f2QB2l0aY Peter Burgess COMMENTARY I am adding this commment in early December 2025 ... more then 2 years after the original post! Sadly ... the war in Ukraine is still going on. Russia has made little progress but has done a huge amount of damage. Putin and Russia are surviving but not ... so far ... succeeding. Ukraine has put up a very good fight against all the odds. More than anything else, the people of Ukraine have a will to hold out and eventually win. International (Western) support for Ukraine remains strong and by some accounts is getting stronger ... and Ukraine itself has embraced modern warfare technology including drones more effectively than the Russians. The US under Trump leadership is proving a poor ally for Ukraine, but most of Europe and Canada and Japan and Australia are backing Ukraine in substantial ways. My personal view is that Trump is incompetent and should be removed from the Presidency of the USA ... but VP Vance may well be no better in the event that Trump were to become incapacitated! Peter Burgess
‘High probability’ Ukraine will breach Russian defensive lines by end of 2023 \| Chip Chapman Times Radio Sep 18, 2023 535K subscribers ... 162,906 views ... 2.9K likes “Even if you break the will to fight, a minefield doesn’t care about your will to fight.” Ukraine could breach all the Russian lines by the end of the year, even though they're up against defences ‘not seen since the Second World War’, says Major General Chip Chapman. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 1:02 defense Intelligence Agency on the 8th of September saying that there's a realistic probability that Ukraine can breach the second and third rushing defensive Lines by the end of the year and in the intelligence yardsticks that's quite a high possibility but then you can trust that with the fact that General milley chairman of the Joint Chiefs and staff has said on the 10th of September that they're only probably 30 to 45 days of fighting left conditioned by ammunition expenditure the weather reserves and losses so it would be a better question say where we are the operational level by the end of October when Ukraine really needs to have done a number of things for operational effect it needs to cut the railway at top Mac it needs a minimum of fire control over the M14 which is the highway that runs from Melita Pole to Marriott pool it needs to somewhere be in the position 2:00 to drop the character bridge and the freedom of strikes in Crimea which its anti-access aerial denier area denial Campaign which has been really really successful has done in the future now the key variable at the moment it seems to me in the zaparesia which I've always said is to me the sort of triangle decision is the five Airborne regiments which have been put in there to reinforce the 58th combined arms Army of the Russians so if you can go through them because they are the best rushing troops that they have then attrition by overstretch might mean that we are into something serious in terms of the counter-offensive going further and faster if they can do that but there's there are a lot of variables there it needs to be appreciated doesn't it chip the difficulty of getting through the first line of defense when I say first line there's a lot of components to it ditches trenches dense minefields and artillery that's right and that's what slows you down now we have planning yardsticks for 3:00 everything in the military you know which conditions how far you can go and one day one hour if you have certain levels of artillery support engineer support whatever it might be but I don't think anyone particularly since the second world war has come come against a defensive system of such depth and of such ferocity in terms of Mines defensive barriers trenches artillery fire all supported by loitering Munitions and k52 the um the assault helicopters which do slow you down that will give you a new metric for the future which is you cannot go very far very fast in a day initially until you can break the resistance and the will to fight and even if you break the will to fight a Minefield doesn't care about your will will to fight it is a physical obstacle which is immune to that sort of uh breaking of the will yeah I was reading just this morning about those minefields where you could see five miles mines in in an area of a square meter almost it sounds almost 4:01 impenetrable just last thought on China the the Chinese Diplomat Wang Yi is in Russia and there's talk of that I've been putting going to China in October now we've been focusing on on North Korea in recent days I mean uh Kim Young has been there but China really is one to watch yeah well we know that there are four days of strategic security consultations and of course that can mean anything it can mean something political it can mean something economic I mean can mean something social political I think you'll see a number of sort of good words coming out about you know not to do with the No Limits partnership but about you know the multipolar world and abandoning a cold war mentality and the imperialist mindset of the west but I think also to try and get the uh sort of non-aligned or those that they want to get into their their sort of orbits I think you'll see something again about trying to get the green uh green situation we energize because it's worth saying that one of the uh one of the 5:00 parts of the Chinese peace plan which was the last time that Wang Yi was there was 0.9 was facilitating grain exports now again the you know most of the International Community would like that to happen because um you know they're suffering from either a lack of grain or B the the price of it so I think you'll see something on that I don't think you'll see something uh really significant in terms of them supporting the Russian position in terms of ammunition

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