Definitions for TrueValueMetrics
Macroeconomic Metrics

These metrics don't work. Macro-economic metrics did not identify the economic crisis of 2007/2008 until the damage was done ... the models could only anticipate previous experience ... even while other models were being used to game the system.

At the macro level there are all sorts of metrics ... mostly derived from small surveys and aggregated statistically. They serve as useful proxies for more reliable metrics ... and serve quite well as long as changes are modest and there are no disruptive elements. When there is disruption and things change these measures are inadequate and probably wrong.

But there are more fundamental problems with macro-economic metrics. They do not provide the level of detail or granularity that is needed to make decisions at any level much below the level of the Federal Reserve ... and the models are worse than useless outside the specific economy where they were developed.

TVM acknowledges that a range of macro-economic indicators exist and that these time series need not be changed, but a new set of indicators need to be developed and deployed.