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Date: 2025-04-29 Page is: DBtxt001.php txt00023495
THE WAR IN UKRAINE
SINKING THE MOSKVA WARSHIP

The Moskva Moment: A Moment That Captured Global Attention ... The Naval War in Ukraine - The Moskva, Missiles & Lessons


Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrgCPsock6w
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess
• The Moskva Moment: A Moment That Captured Global Attention The Naval War in Ukraine - The Moskva, Missiles & Lessons

Perun

272K subscribers ... 299,533 views ... 17K Likes

Oct 23, 2022

The Russian Black Sea Fleet entered the Ukrainian war as the unchallenged master of that body of water. Ukraine's own fleet was small and less modern, and the opening weeks of the war were dominated by news of the Russian fleet launching missile attacks and threatening naval landings that pinned down Ukrainian forces in Odessa.

But when the Moskva sank, the pattern of naval activity changed dramatically. Now, the Russian fleet stays mostly away from the Ukrainian cost, nervous of missile, drone, and air threats posed by an opponent whose own navy is mostly neutralised.

In this episode I look at the evolving war in the Black Sea, the evolution and role of the Russian navy there, the sinking of the Moskva - and what if any lessons foreign observers might be taking from the war at sea so far.
  • Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats:

The sinking of the Moskva, for all that we have learned, ultimately remains a mystery. I have not interviewed any of her crew, and I am not an expert in the field. I have tried to explain why I adopt conclusions on some matters and decline to make any on others - but even the conclusions made are only at a moderate confidence level.

There could have been more missiles, there could just have been some horrible freak accident involved. The comments therein are thus ultimately the best I can make using the evidence available - but as with so many other things in this war, I expect future evidence will reveal twists we do not now anticipate.

I'd also note there are a few typos that snuck through on the slides - forgive these please.

I'd also like to flag that the use of ground based systems at sea is not an unknow - though it is usually intended as an expedient. In some cases the ships involved may also merely have been transporting the systems, though that does not seem to have been the case in all instances.

Russian naval operations are obviously secret and knowledge presented therein is based on open source information - it is, for example, possible that Russia launches secret incursions against the Ukrainian coast, but the situation described is based on the best available information I have access to.

Finally - yes i know it's a stretch giving the Canadians credit for the Brits torching the White House , but the joke was there

Sources/notable articles:

Russian fleet strengths - composite but primarily Military balance 2021
  • US accelerating deployment of laser weapons for navy ships https://news.usni.org/2022/07/26/cno-...
  • Weapon supply data drawn from open source aggregators - including Oryx and official sources, E.G for Germany
  • https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-e...
  • Russian navy and PLAN recognition Guides https://www.oni.navy.mil/Portals/12/I...
  • The Sinking of the Moskva by Christopher Carlson http://www.admiraltytrilogy.com/pdf/H...
  • Russian claims on Moskva's sinking: https://tass.com/russia/1438045
  • Turkey closing the straits: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
  • https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3...
Timestamps:
  • 00:00:00 — Opening Words
  • 00:01:15 — What Am I Covering?
  • 00:02:07 — Evolution of the Russian Navy
  • 00:03:00 — Land and Sea Powers
  • 00:04:14 — The Rises and Falls of Russian Naval Power
  • 00:06:07 — Gorshkov's Navy
  • 00:07:16 — The 'Soviet Style' of Ship
  • 00:10:00 — The Cost of Firepower
  • 00:11:22 — The 90's
  • 00:12:53 — Putin, Modernisation, Syria & 'Kalibrisation'
  • 00:14:45 — Pre-War Strength
  • 00:15:46 — Russian Federation Navy Recognition and Identification Guide
  • 00:16:13 — The Early Stages of the War
  • 00:16:22 — Russian Fleet Strength
  • 00:18:31 — The Opening Salvos
  • 00:20:27 — End of the Ukrainian Navy
  • 00:22:22 — From Snake Island to Odessa
  • 00:24:32 — The Moskva Moment: A Moment That Captured Global Attention
  • 00:26:53 — The Soviet Rustbuckets
  • 00:28:36 — How Did It Happen?
  • 00:30:33 — Moskva Under The Microscope
  • 00:32:51 — State of the Ship
  • 00:35:01 — Incompetence or Arrogance?
  • 00:37:16 — What Did It Mean?
  • 00:38:07 — What Happened?
  • 00:40:19 — Emerging Threats
  • 00:40:39 — The Missile Threat
  • 00:43:27 — Drones and Air Threats
  • 00:44:54 — Networked Intelligence
  • 00:46:24 — What Next?
  • 00:47:10 — Unmanned Systems Introduced
  • 00:49:21 — The Crimean Dimension
  • 00:50:15 — Force Regeneration
  • 00:52:13 — Lessons & Observations
  • 00:53:56 — Paper vs Actual Capabilities
  • 00:55:36 — Soft Factors
  • 01:01:19 — Nowhere to Hide
  • 01:02:27 — Conclusions
  • 01:04:01 — Channel Update




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