Country ... Russia
Economic Performance
9 Ways Putin Has Let Russia Down ... Grandstanding in Crimea runs counter to Russia’s economic interests — and may cost Putin his power (from 2014)
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Burgess COMMENTARY
I am reading this 2 1/2 years after it was written, and Putin remains firmly in power in Russia and generaly popular among a big part of the populace. The idea that he has over-played his hand sis not seemingly coming to pass. My take on this is that the Russian oil economy is actually a lot more resilient than is generally assumed, and is throwing off a lot more free cash flow than man of the oil fields outside Russia and the Middle East. Russia's agriculture also may be in much better shape than it has ever been, and this also can be am important driver of the economy. Russia, unlike the West is
Peter Burgess
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9 Ways Putin Has Let Russia Down ...
Grandstanding in Crimea runs counter to Russia’s economic interests — and may cost Putin his power.
IMAGE Russian President Vladimir Putin (Credit: Kremlin.ru)
Takeaways
Russia is a fragile petro-state that cannot afford the costs of sanctions, let alone the costs of war. Scaring off the foreign investors is the last thing Russia should want to do. Putin’s hold on Russia could become rather tenuous one or two years from now.
1. The ultimate loser in a standoff between Russia and the West will very likely be Putin. 2. Russia’s president can probably get some short-term popularity boost now by annexing Crimea. 3. However, Russia is a fragile petro-state that cannot afford the costs of sanctions, let alone the costs of war. 4. That is why the incursion into Crimea probably marks the beginning of the end of Putin. 5. By raising the specter that Western businesses in Russia may be expropriated in tit-for-tat sanctions, Russia has probably already imposed a big sanction onto itself. 6. Scaring off the foreign investors, which Russia needs to modernize its flagging economy, is the last thing Russia should want to do. 7. Mounting economic problems and pervasive capital flight present serious economic problems for Russia. 8. Putin is probably facing some rather strong objections from Russian oligarchs against policies that could disrupt their businesses badly. 9. Putin’s hold on Russia could become rather tenuous one or two years from now.
From “Russian Scenarios” by Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank.
More on this topic
Ukraine: A Permanent Ceasefire?
Quo Vadis, Putin? An Answer in Five Points
How Far Will Putin Go?
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By The Globalist,
March 16, 2014
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