Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess

Sally Jewell, Secretary U.S. Department of the Interior 1849 C Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20240

Neil Kornze, Director Bureau of Land Management 849 C Street NW, Rm. 5665 Washington, D.C. 20240

Mitchell Leverette Chief, Division of Solid Minerals Bureau of Land Management 20 M Street, S.E. Washington, D.C. 20003

Submitted to: BLM_WO_Coal_Program_PEIS_Comments@blm.gov

Re: Scientists Support Ending Coal Leasing on Public Lands to Protect the Climate, Public Health, and Biodiversity

We are scientists writing to urge the Department of the Interior to take meaningful action to fight climate change by ending federal coal leasing, extraction, and burning. The vast majority of known coal in the United States must stay in the ground if the federal coal program is to be consistent with national climate objectives and be protective of public health, welfare, and biodiversity.

The United States has committed to the climate goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels under the Paris Agreement.1 Humancaused climate change is already causing widespread damage from intensifying global food and water insecurity, the increasing frequency of heat waves and other extreme weather events, inundation of coastal regions by sea level rise and increasing storm surge, the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice, increasing species extinction risk, and the worldwide degradation of coral reefs. Limiting further temperature rise is needed to prevent increasingly dangerous and potentially irreversible impacts.2 However, current climate policy and emissions reduction pledges in the United States and globally are not sufficient to achieve a 1.5°C or 2°C limit, and stronger action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is urgently needed.3

According to a large body of scientific research, holding temperature rise to “well below 2°C” requires that the vast majority of global and US fossil fuels stay in the ground.4 Effectively, this means that fossil fuel emissions must be phased out globally within the next few decades.5 The global carbon budget — the remaining amount of carbon that can be released to the atmosphere before we lose any reasonable chance of holding global temperature increase well below 2°C — is extremely limited and is rapidly being consumed by continued fossil fuel use.6 The United States alone has enough recoverable fossil fuels, split about evenly between federal and nonfederal resources, that if extracted and burned, would exceed the global carbon budget for a 1.5°C limit, and would consume nearly the entire global budget for a 2°C limit.7 The unleased federal coal resource alone is estimated at 212 GtCO2e, or almost two-thirds of the remaining global carbon budget for a reasonable probability of limiting warming to 1.5ºC.8

In the United States, coal is the largest and most carbon dioxide-intensive conventional fossil fuel resource,9 with federal coal comprising approximately 41% of total US coal production.10 Coal mining contributes substantial additional methane emissions.11 Mitigation pathways for holding temperature rise well below 2°C mandate a rapid phase-out of coal emissions.12 For example, a recent study estimates that 95% of US coal reserves, including both federal and nonfederal coal, must remain unburned to preserve a reasonable probability of remaining below 2°C.13 Coal mining, transport, combustion, disposal, and cleanup also have significant external costs on public health and the environment.14

A near-term phase-out of federal coal is also critical because new leasing locks in investment and high-carbon infrastructure for mining, transport, and coal combustion, all of which is inconsistent with the pressing need to end fossil fuel emissions.15 A rapid end to federal coal extraction would send an important signal internationally and domestically to markets, utilities, investors and other nations that the United States is committed to upholding its climate obligation to limit temperature rise to well below 2°C.

The science is clear: to satisfy our commitment under the Paris Agreement to hold global temperature increase well below 2°C, the United States must keep the vast majority of its coal in the ground. We urge you to end federal coal leasing, extraction and burning in order to advance U.S. climate objectives and protect public health, welfare and biodiversity.

Respectfully signed,

Ken Caldeira, PhD, Climate Scientist, Carnegie Institution for Science
James Hansen, PhD, The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Stuart Pimm, PhD, Doris Duke Chair of Conservation, Duke University
Michael Soulé, PhD, Professor Emeritus, University of California, Santa Cruz
Susan Solomon, PhD, Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, PhD, Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland
Aradhna Tripati, PhD, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles
Mark Z. Jacobson, PhD, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University
Michael Oppenheimer, PhD, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs,
Princeton University Lara Hansen, PhD, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt
Drew Shindell, PhD, Nicholas Professor of Earth Science, Duke University
Robert Howarth, PhD, Professor of Ecology and Environmental Biology, Cornell University
David B. Wake, Professor of the Graduate School in Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley
F. Stuart Chapin III, PhD, University of Alaska Fairbanks
David W. Inouye, PhD, Professor Emeritus, University of Maryland
Anne Ehrlich, Department of Biology, Stanford University
Larry B Crowder, PhD, Edward Ricketts Chair in Marine Ecology and Conservation, Stanford University
Carl Safina, PhD, President, The Safina Center at Stony Brook University
Anthony R. Ingraffea, PhD, Dwight C. Baum Professor of Engineering Emeritus, Cornell University
Daniel Pauly, PhD, Professor, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
Kerry Emanuel, PhD, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Steven J. Davis, PhD, Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
David Ackerly, PhD, Professor, Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley
Gail Whiteman, PhD, Professor, Lancaster University
Andrew Szasz, Professor of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz
Richard C. J. Somerville, PhD, Distinguished Professor Emeritus, University of California, San Diego
John Harte, PhD, Professor of Ecosystem Sciences, University of California, Berkeley
William H. Schlesinger, PhD, President Emeritus and Biogeochemist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, PhD, Halley Professor of Physics, University of Oxford
Michael E. Loik, PhD, Professor, Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz
Rachel Morello-Frosch, PhD, Professor, Department of Environmental Science, University of California, Berkeley
Alex Hall, PhD, Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles
John Bruno, PhD, Professor, Biology Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Michael MacCracken, PhD, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute
Ruth L. Steiner, PhD, Professor of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Florida
Kai Chan, PhD, Professor and Canada Research Chair, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, University of British Columbia
Robert W Corell, PhD, Chair, Global Science Associates
Karen Holl, PhD, Professor of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz
Simon Donner, PhD, Associate Professor, University of British Columbia
Richard A. Houghton, PhD, Senior Scientist, Woods Hole Research Center
Peter H. Raven, PhD, Professor Emeritus, Missouri Botanical Garden
Thomas F. Pedersen, PhD, Professor, and Chair, Canadian Climate Forum, Ottawa,
University of Victoria, Canada Michael McGehee, PhD, Professor, Stanford University
Rob Eagle, PhD, University of California, Los Angeles
Scott L. Collins, PhD, Distinguished Professor, University of New Mexico
Susannah R. McCandless, PhD, International Program Director, Global Diversity Foundation
Dustin Mulvaney, PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Studies, San Jose State University
David W Schindler, PhD, Killam Memorial Professor of Ecology Emeritus, University of Alberta
James M. Byrne, PhD, Professor, University of Lethbridge
John Abraham, PhD, Professor, University of St. Thomas
Jonathan Payne, PhD, Associate Professor of Geological Sciences, Stanford University
Kenneth J. Arrow, PhD, Professor of Economics and Operations Research Emeritus, Stanford University
Robert E. Dickinson, PhD, Professor, University of Texas Austin
Bruce G. Baldwin, PhD, Professor/Curator, University of California, Berkeley
Ross D Shachter, PhD, Associate Professor of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
Kevin Kung, MS, Tata Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Christine V. Hawkes, PhD, Associate Professor, University of Texas
Brent Hughes, PhD, David H. Smith Conservation Research Fellow, Duke University
Peter J. Jacobson, PhD, Professor of Biology, Grinnell College
Meredith Holgerson, PhD, Smith Conservation Research Fellow, Portland State University
Thomas A Morrison, PhD, Research Associate, University of Glasgow, UK
Vincent Eckhart, PhD, Waldo Walker Professor of Biology, Grinnell College
Sara Kuebbing, PhD, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies
Viorel Popescu, PhD, Assistant Professor Conservation Biology, Ohio University
Dwight Owens, MA, University of Victoria
Keryn Gedan, PhD, Assistant Professor, George Washington University
Shaye Wolf, PhD, Climate Science Director, Center for Biological Diversity