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GLOBAL RISKS ... A global risk is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.
Table A.1: Description of Global Risks 2015
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Economic Risks
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Asset bubble in a major economy
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Unsustainably overpriced assets, such as commodities, housing, shares, etc., in a major economy or regionEconomic Risks
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Deflation in a major economy
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Prolonged ultra-low inflation or deflation in a major economy or region
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Energy price shock to the global economy
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Sharp and/or sustained energy price increases that place further economic pressures on highly energy-dependent industries and consumers
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Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution
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Collapse of a financial institution and/or inefficient functioning of a financial system with implications throughout the global economy
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Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure
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Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and secure infrastructure networks leads to a breakdown with system-wide implications
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Fiscal crises in key economies
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Excessive debt burdens generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises
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High structural unemployment or underemployment
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A sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population
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Unmanageable inflation
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Unmanageable increase in the general price level of goods and services in key economies
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Environmental Risks
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Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
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Major property, infrastructure and environmental damage as well as human loss caused by extreme weather events
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Failure of climate-change adaptation
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Governments and businesses fail to enforce or enact effective measures to protect populations and to help businesses impacted by climate change to adapt
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Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (land or ocean)
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Irreversible consequences for the environment resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries such as fishing, forestry, pharmaceuticals
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Major natural catastrophes (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)
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Major property, infrastructure and environmental damage as well as human loss caused by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis or geomagnetic storms
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Man-made environmental catastrophes (e.g. oil spill, radioactive contamination, etc.)
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Failure to prevent major man-made catastrophes causing harm to lives, human health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment
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Geopolitical Risks
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Failure of national governance (e.g. corruption, illicit trade, organized crime, impunity, political deadlock, etc.)
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Inability to efficiently govern a nation of geopolitical importance due to weak rule of law, corruption, illicit trade, organized crime, impunity or political deadlock
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Interstate conflict with regional consequences
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A bilateral or multilateral dispute between states escalates into economic (e.g. trade/currency wars, resource nationalization), military, cyber, societal or other conflict
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Large-scale terrorist attacks
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Individuals or non-state groups with political or religious goals successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage
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State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)
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State collapse of geopolitical importance due to internal violence, regional or global instability and military coup, civil conflict, failed states, etc.
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Weapons of mass destruction
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Nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials are deployed creating international crises and potential for significant destruction
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Societal Risks
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Failure of urban planning
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Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure create social, environmental and health challenges
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Food crises
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Access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition becomes inadequate, unaffordable or unreliable on a major scale
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Large-scale involuntary migration
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Large-scale involuntary migration due to conflict, disasters, environmental or economic reasons
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Profound social instability
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Major social movements or protests (e.g. street riots, social unrest, etc.) disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity
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Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases
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Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance due to resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments), leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption
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Water crises
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A significant decline in the available quality and quantity of fresh water, resulting in harmful effects on human health and/or economic activity
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Technological Risks
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Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks
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Systemic failures of critical information infrastructure (e.g. Internet, satellites, etc.) and networks negatively impact industrial production, public services and communications
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Large-scale cyber attacks
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State-sponsored, state-affiliated, criminal or terrorist large-scale cyber attacks cause an infrastructure breakdown and/or loss of trust in the Internet
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Massive incident of data fraud/theft
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Criminal or state-sponsored wrongful exploitation of private or official data takes place on an unprecedented scale
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Massive and widespread misuse of technologies (e.g. 3D printing, artificial intelligence, geo-engineering, synthetic biology, etc.)
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Massive and widespread misuse of technologies, such as 3D printing, artificial intelligence, geo-engineering and synthetic biology, causing human, environmental and economic damage
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TRENDS ... A trend is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently taking place and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.
Table A.2: Description of Trends 2015
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Ageing population
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Ageing of populations in developed and developing countries driven by declining fertility and decrease of middle- and old-age mortality
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Climate change
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Change of climate attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
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Environmental degradation
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Deterioration in quality of air, soil and water from ambient concentrations of pollutants and other activities and processes
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Growing middle class in emerging economies
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Growing share of population reaching middle-class income levels in emerging economies
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Increasing national sentiment
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Increasing national sentiment among populations and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political positions
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Increasing polarization of societies
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Inability to reach agreement on key issues within countries due to diverging or extreme values, political or religious views
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Rise of chronic diseases
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Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases, also known as chronic diseases, leading to long-term costs of treatment threatening recent societal gains in life expectancy and quality, placing a burden on economies
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Rise of hyperconnectivity
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Increasing digital interconnection of people and things
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Rising geographic mobility
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Increasing mobility of people and things due to quicker and better performing means of transport and lowered barriers
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Rising income disparity
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Increasing socio-economic gap between rich and poor in major countries or regions
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Shifts in power
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Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies
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Urbanization
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Rising number of people living in urban areas, resulting in the physical growth of cities
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Weakening of international governance
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Weakening or inadequate global or regional institutions’ (e.g. the UN, IMF, NATO, etc.) agreements or networks, and loss of trust in them, increasing the global power vacuum and preventing effective solutions to global challenges
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