Date: 2024-05-15 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00025447
THE UKRAINE WAR
UKRAINE MATTERS update September 17th 1023
Ukraine Matters: No Escape: Ukraine Ends Whole Russian Brigade - Ukraine War Map Update 17/Sep/2023
UKRAINE MATTERS update September 17th 1023
Ukraine Matters: No Escape: Ukraine Ends Whole Russian Brigade - Ukraine War Map Update 17/Sep/2023
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLS5GyFzHd4
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
0:00 hey everyone Georgie here with Ukraine 0:02 matters what a crazy week and 0:04 unfortunately I've been sick and I was 0:06 not able to cover all of the good news 0:08 that were brought to you from the fronts 0:12 of Ukraine but I'm gonna do it right now 0:14 so this might be a longer video but I'm 0:16 gonna hope and try and do it as fast as 0:19 I can so we're gonna start right where 0:22 there are significant troubles for 0:24 Russians which is bakmud front line 0:27 around the south of bakmut in just a 0:30 recent couple of days we had 0:31 confirmations of full liberations of two 0:35 what used to be settlements of krishifka 0:38 and andrefka important here to 0:41 understand is that 0:44 it's not the settlements itself that 0:47 settlements don't exist they're they're 0:49 gone it's just a name the important part 0:52 is the enemy fortification here so the 0:55 Fortified positions of enemies in the 0:58 area of these settlements that are still 1:00 being used as kind of the central hubs 1:02 because 1:04 settlements usually are built alongside 1:08 the roads most of the times so when 1:11 Ukraine is able to capture some of these 1:14 settlements they're able to advance 1:17 their Logistics further therefore 1:19 developing the positions and secondly 1:22 it's because for example andrifka is 1:24 located right at the local dominant 1:28 height so it's very important in that 1:30 sense and it's very important to 1:32 underline as well the significance of 1:35 andrifica because here in andrific the 1:39 way that ukrainians were able to take 1:41 the settlement is the Russian 1:44 tactics backfiring at them because 1:47 Russians were helding in andrifica for 1:51 as long as they could they were dead 1:54 centered at trying to stay inside the 1:57 settlement inside their fortified 1:59 positions for as long as they could even 2:03 beside Beyond the points of which there 2:07 was already no point in holding it and 2:09 Ukraine did a pincer movement in which 2:12 they cut off the entrance to andrifica 2:15 and all of the Russian Personnel that 2:18 were still left inside of the city 2:20 including the commanders including the 2:23 troops there they were either took taken 2:26 prisoner or destroyed and and that was a 2:30 major major blow because overall in this 2:33 fight for andrifica over the many months 2:35 that it was happening 2:37 there was a whole 72 Brigade that was 2:41 first introduced those couple of months 2:43 ago as a reinforcing Force to this 2:46 direction because as you can remember 2:49 maybe a couple of months is a little bit 2:50 too long but like at least over a month 2:52 ago when ukrainians captured the 2:55 positions north of clichev because they 2:57 were advancing towards andrifica and 2:59 they were like already pushing the 3:01 Russians out that's when the 72nd 3:04 Brigade arrived and the Russian brigades 3:07 started reinforcing trying to recapture 3:09 kashifka that's when ukrainians started 3:12 experiencing that pushback and now the a 3:16 lot of that Brigade has been sent out 3:19 already either in body bags or in 3:21 hospital beds and secondly a lot of 3:24 their command now and whatever left of 3:26 that Brigade has been wiped out that 3:29 Brigade exists mostly on paper now and 3:33 number of people that are still 3:35 belonging to the Brigade are either in 3:37 hospital or they're running without 3:39 their pants so their random refugees 3:42 that Brigade is done it can be obviously 3:45 reconstituted Russia will rebuild it and 3:47 say oh look it's uh here fresh and ready 3:50 to fight but it's not going to be the 3:52 same 3:53 this creates problems for Russia because 3:55 right now the destruction of that 3:57 Brigade lose losing of clichev 4:00 composition losing of position of 4:03 andrifka and wiping out of the 4:06 commanding force that the whole backbone 4:09 of the 72nd Brigade means that right now 4:12 there is a gaping hole inside of the 4:15 Russian front line and important here 4:17 where I'm saying gay behold it doesn't 4:19 mean that no one is defending it 4:21 obviously it will be but it's the 4:24 position and part of the front line that 4:27 was supposed to be held by this specific 4:31 unit like a brigade 4:34 it's now gone it's not being held so now 4:36 everyone from other sides of the front 4:39 line the command needs to scramble to 4:42 try to plug in this hole somehow and 4:45 resources are already stretched 4:48 where we gonna translate next is towards 4:50 the southern front line but what I want 4:53 you to understand is that ukrainians 4:57 are doing their plan and their plan is 5:01 bringing results 5:03 ukrainians are applying why is it 5:06 suddenly green ukrainians are applying 5:07 pressure on many points on the front 5:11 line ukrainians are applying pressure 5:13 everywhere obviously the main Direction 5:17 and I told you about in a couple of 5:19 videos ago that battle for talkmak is 5:23 going to be one of the most bloodiest 5:25 battles that there ever been Russians 5:27 know just how crucial tokmak is and I 5:31 explained that in large sense this 5:34 settlement right here in the southern on 5:37 the southern front by the name of verboe 5:39 this one here that the ukrainians are 5:42 already poking that settlement might as 5:45 well be a Gateway towards stockmark so 5:49 if ukrainians take verb away most 5:51 probably they reach stockmark and if 5:53 they reach stockmark they will literally 5:55 start collapsing the southern front 5:57 lines and I told you that Russians 6:00 understand that and this is exactly what 6:02 we're seeing they are seeing the danger 6:05 and we've seen the reports that from 6:08 Bahamut Direction which was previously 6:10 reinforced additionally with multiple 6:13 different brigades with multiple 6:15 different units these units were sent 6:18 additionally to the South 6:20 moreover we're talking about what kind 6:23 of reserves Russia is having and I said 6:25 that operative reserves for Russia some 6:29 months ago were depleted so the 6:32 operative reserves were reserves that 6:34 were dedicated specifically for that 6:35 direction after that their start they 6:38 started picking reserves from other 6:41 direction to continuously reinforce this 6:43 then they also did reserves from the 6:46 north part now what Russia is also have 6:49 been doing they were trying to get units 6:52 from the directions where they were 6:54 defending and supposedly holding the 6:56 line such as for a long time around 6:58 bakmud where the 72nd Brigade held the 7:01 line 7:02 no situation 7:05 might be developing fast but we see we 7:08 will see what Russia will respond with 7:10 around I'm still a little bit skeptical 7:13 about how much resources Ukraine has 7:15 around bakmud because I don't believe 7:17 Ukraine has a significant fresh 7:21 resources in the area to execute any 7:23 kind of 7:25 significant push in direction of bakmut 7:28 to get into that operational uh level uh 7:32 on the operational area to go around and 7:36 fast and circle bakmud I don't believe 7:38 Ukraine has the forces concentration 7:40 needed to break through through whatever 7:42 defenses are left there but what we are 7:45 seeing is continuous stretching and 7:48 degradation of Russian forces moreover 7:51 we know that Russia Was preparing 7:54 strategic reserves because 7:56 Russian Doctrine talks about once the 7:59 enemy has been stopped let's let's 8:02 imagine a situation that Russia has 8:04 stopped Ukrainian advances next step in 8:07 defense is counter-attack so at that 8:10 moment you take your reserve fresh 8:12 forces and you strike back at the enemy 8:15 that is now exhausted and you push it 8:18 back without like and try to regain the 8:21 territory that was obviously taken maybe 8:23 by the enemy and more importantly you 8:26 strike the enemy in their their weak 8:28 positions to test if the enemy has 8:30 enough forces to defend against your 8:33 push this was the Russian Reserve that 8:37 was prepared at the back this Reserve 8:41 Army That was supposed to be preparing 8:45 but it should have been should have 8:47 become operational by approximately the 8:51 start of December 8:52 now has been without fully completing 8:55 their both training and complex and kind 8:58 of like uh how do you say their training 9:01 and equipment and and preparation cycle 9:04 that whole Army has been sent into 9:06 Ukraine to again reinforce the southern 9:09 Direction so we're seeing again Russia 9:12 is violating their own 9:15 um strategy not a strategy their own by 9:18 the book tactics saying we will not go 9:21 into counter-attack because we will not 9:24 have forces they're sending the forces 9:27 that they were preparing for 9:28 counter-attack to try to defend and 9:30 prevent Ukraine from advancing any 9:32 further 9:33 that is the situation what Russia is 9:36 having 9:36 importantly because every time I say 9:39 about this video and people again 9:41 misunderstand and think that what I'm 9:43 saying is that the Russian front line is 9:45 going to collapse Ukraine is potentially 9:47 Ukraine is going to go into breakthrough 9:49 everything is going to be uh broken no 9:52 what I'm saying is that Russia is 9:55 putting itself in a lot of weak 9:57 positions Russia is executing many many 10:00 errors in their strategic approach to 10:04 how to fight this fight these errors 10:06 might help them recoup in short term but 10:10 in medium to long term this can cause 10:14 and the keyword here can cause severe 10:18 problems that can cause means that it 10:22 creates openings for the enemy to 10:25 exploit to exploit those openings the 10:28 enemy in this case Ukrainian Armed 10:30 Forces need only one thing resources and 10:34 this is where we're having a little bit 10:36 of difficulties but I'm going to talk 10:38 about it a little bit later 10:39 so what we need to understand right now 10:41 is that Ukrainian strategy Ukrainian 10:44 approach is working Russians are really 10:48 trying hard to keep the front line as 10:51 static as possible they're doing the 10:54 best they can unfortunately as we can 10:56 see it creates already tension it's like 10:59 a big stretched balloon and at some 11:02 point there is a high possibility that 11:05 it just might burst we will see if that 11:07 will happen but right now we already see 11:10 that certain results is achieved because 11:12 taking out the whole Brigade destroying 11:15 the command taking many prisoners that 11:17 is nothing to to go around with that is 11:20 really really impressive 11:23 especially when we're going to be 11:24 talking about resources dedicated salt 11:27 and front line on the South and Front 11:28 Line ukrainians have reached the the the 11:31 the enemy defense lines on the south uh 11:36 as the analysts that I'm listening to 11:38 they're saying that Ukraine is 11:40 Comfortably 11:42 uh reached those Frontline positions the 11:46 front line trenches the dragon teeth and 11:48 they are taking some of them over and 11:52 they're using the same trenches to 11:55 defend themselves to prepare themselves 11:58 for further advances so what the danger 12:03 was as I explained a couple of videos 12:05 ago is that Russian Doctrine doesn't 12:08 respond into to the enemy Breakthrough 12:11 by hitting them uh where the enemy 12:14 breaks through what the Russian Doctrine 12:16 wants to do is create a cauldron or a 12:19 pocket so instead what Russians are 12:22 doing they're attacking on the sides 12:24 both here from the north of verboe and 12:27 they're trying to attack from the area 12:29 of robotna it's more like from the area 12:31 of company right over here 12:33 so ukrainians their plan that they were 12:36 doing right now because remember as 12:37 Ukraine liberated robotine there has 12:40 been many many reports where Russia has 12:43 sent in a lot of their reinforcements 12:45 either from other directions or from 12:47 that strategic reserves that they were 12:48 preparing for the December uh maybe 12:50 campaign they have been reinforcing this 12:53 area with a lot of Fresh Horses 12:55 and these fresh forces right now are 12:58 trying to put pressure and close this 13:01 pocket they're trying to make sure that 13:03 ukrainians that reach this line are cut 13:06 off 13:06 to counteract that Ukraine has put 13:09 themselves to use that front line the 13:12 the the trenches that Russians and 13:15 trench positions that Russians build 13:17 themselves obviously trying to expand 13:20 this area as much as possible so that's 13:23 why we're seeing some pressure north of 13:25 no Opera copyka which is a village that 13:28 is right here it's a big against 13:30 defensive position 13:32 and most importantly they are trying to 13:36 exhaust and break the ability of 13:40 Russians 13:42 to effectively 13:45 apply force on the flanks so that's why 13:48 we're seeing mostly recently ukrainians 13:52 advancing towards the direction of 13:53 company preventing eruptions from 13:55 attacking them from the flanks they were 13:58 also successful in many videos of 14:01 stopping Russian advances from this area 14:03 and they're also here trying to apply 14:06 pressure to try to push Russians away 14:09 what they're trying to do to put it 14:11 simply they want to have this veg 14:15 as wide as possible on the flanks so 14:19 they are feeling comfortable pushing 14:21 South will Ukraine have enough time we 14:25 don't know because 14:27 the timeline is about mid-october that's 14:30 everyone's estimates we're going by the 14:33 U.S estimates that General Millie was 14:35 saying will it be enough will Ukraine 14:38 succeed we don't know we will see I 14:41 still am optimistic about this but 14:44 interestingly it might be possible that 14:47 even if the mud season starts the way 14:50 that Ukraine operates potentially they 14:54 don't need to be as reliant on the 14:56 weather as possible so the question is 14:58 more does Ukraine have resources or not 15:03 I've explained a lot that Ukraine had a 15:05 lot of resources Ukraine had resources 15:08 dedicated both to this offensive both to 15:10 attack on this now Ukraine for sure has 15:13 used uh and engaged all of their 15:16 spearhead brigades that were prepared in 15:19 my expectations there were still 15:21 brigades in reserves that could be sent 15:24 to to this front line the problem is and 15:27 now we're transitioning to another front 15:28 line that there are a lot of Russian 15:32 forces that are prepared in this area 15:36 that are threatening Ukrainian forces 15:39 with push towards kupiansk with push 15:41 towards Limon that is not a new 15:44 development is something new and Ukraine 15:48 has responded to that and sent in some 15:51 of their re reserves that were preparing 15:53 for the push in the South to reinforce 15:56 dispositions in the north and we don't 15:58 know how much of that was sent 16:02 I have a feeling about what it is but I 16:05 don't have hard data to sustain it so we 16:09 don't know right now and I don't have 16:11 information to say how much reserves 16:14 Ukraine still have what I'm seeing right 16:17 now is that Ukraine is still gaining 16:18 ground in the South Ukraine is still 16:21 gaining ground in the in the East but 16:24 I'm not sure whether or not a big 16:26 breakthrough is planned or it's going to 16:29 be a continuous attrition Warfare going 16:31 forward we will see 16:34 we will see but here on the north 16:37 um there has been many numbers stating 16:40 that it was about 900 tanks in this area 16:44 that is concentrated with over a hundred 16:47 thousand troops 16:49 I was able to do a little bit of a 16:51 follow-up and trying to understand where 16:53 did these numbers come from like how 16:55 does Russia has so much forces 16:57 concentrated in this area 16:59 and one might ask well why don't Russia 17:03 just send these forces to defend uh 17:06 defend to the South which is a good 17:08 question but different forces different 17:11 spell specialization one thing second 17:14 thing a lot of Defending forces might be 17:17 already used to defend into their 17:19 positions and thirdly that is not how 17:22 Russian Doctrine work their Doctrine is 17:24 always about we need to counter-attack 17:26 so if you have forces that are 17:29 specifically trained for attacking 17:30 potentially using them as an attacking 17:33 Force against enemy positions forcing it 17:35 to remove some of their reinforcements 17:37 it depends this area what exactly we're 17:40 seeing here up the north is more 17:42 beneficial because the forces are still 17:44 engaged right so whether they would be 17:46 at the South or here at the North it 17:48 doesn't really matter but here they're 17:49 doing the job that they've been trained 17:51 to 17:52 and the numbers here that people were 17:56 referring to was reported by the 17:58 Ukrainian armed forces and these numbers 18:01 relate to the on paper staff so whenever 18:07 ukrainians are talking about how many 18:10 men there are on Direction You Russians 18:12 they're not assessing the state of that 18:15 man because a good military man always 18:19 takes into account the worst possible 18:22 scenario you can hear this based on a 18:25 lot of military analysts if you've been 18:27 following this war but militaries are 18:30 tend to talk about things in a negative 18:33 scenario possibilities so when 18:36 ukrainians are saying there's hundred 18:38 thousand troops in this area what 18:41 they're saying is there is this number 18:43 of units of Russians in this area and if 18:45 we take fully uh fully formed units with 18:49 full Personnel in them that is this is 18:53 how much people there would be and the 18:55 same goes for tanks so these numbers 18:58 like tanks or Armory and so on so these 19:01 numbers that are given it's not every 19:03 unit being counted it's more about 19:06 General understanding in a worst case 19:10 scenario how much 19:12 Firepower are ukrainians expecting to 19:17 come to this area and that is very 19:20 important to understand because Russian 19:21 forces are not in a fresh shape Russian 19:25 forces are not fully com like complected 19:28 stuff they are just not and their tanks 19:31 we know that they have issues running 19:33 with tanks 19:34 so all in all into this Northern 19:37 Direction Russia has forces accumulated 19:39 that they are drawing Ukrainian staff 19:41 form but ukrainians have also sent 19:43 reinforcements in the area so right now 19:45 we don't know that right now we should 19:48 not expect that Russia will have any 19:51 major gains so you can sleep soundly at 19:54 night the question is more about whether 19:57 or not four weeks is going to be enough 19:58 for ukrainians to break through the 20:01 Russian positions to uh make attrition 20:03 work for ukrainians or whether or not 20:06 this will transition into autumn and 20:08 winter campaign we will see but 20:10 Ukrainian staff already expressed that 20:13 their desires that they don't plan to 20:15 stop they want to continue their 20:16 offensive going forward which is 20:19 potentially an option and that's why I'm 20:21 saying that maybe even the awesome 20:23 weather will not be a stopping point but 20:26 we will see we will discuss the state 20:29 the offensive and will kind of discuss 20:32 the results of it at the end of 20:34 September as a problem list and we're 20:35 going to evaluate whether this was a 20:37 failure or success or in what we can 20:39 expect in the future important Frontline 20:42 that we don't talk about very often is 20:44 the sea because in the sea for a very 20:47 long time it was well Russia has the 20:49 Navy Ukraine doesn't therefore Russia 20:52 controls the sea 20:53 it changed significantly firstly because 20:56 Ukraine used the Kamikaze boats and 20:59 remember this is an excellent options 21:01 for ukrainians because there is no 21:03 counter play 21:04 because Russia is using their ships 21:07 so Ukraine is using their drones to get 21:10 those ships to either be damaged or 21:14 force them to move out of the area of 21:18 operations where they can influence 21:20 trading where they can influence 21:23 Ukrainian Naval or even air operations 21:26 such as plane planes flying over the sea 21:29 and Russia cannot respond by that like 21:32 this is not a strategy that Russia can 21:34 copy because if Russia makes those 21:36 Kamikaze boats what they will Target 21:39 civilian transport they can do it anyway 21:41 with their big boats that's not the 21:43 issue if they wanted to destroy 21:45 something they would destroy it the 21:47 problem was that this is this is a 21:49 tactic by Ukraine that cannot be copied 21:52 that cannot be replicated by Russia 21:54 because there are no targets for this 21:56 tactic on Ukrainian side 21:59 and because of that Ukraine has been 22:02 applying a lot of pressure in the area 22:04 and now it's forcing a lot of uh Russian 22:09 Fleet to be extremely nervous second 22:11 thing that happened was at the end of 22:13 August ukrainians successfully captured 22:15 the 22:16 um like a platforms that were used to 22:20 extract gas and oil in the Black Sea and 22:23 Russia put a forward-facing radar 22:26 installations on these platforms so they 22:29 were able to have eyes in this area of 22:31 Black Sea at the end of August Ukrainian 22:34 special forces were able to assault 22:37 these platforms and take them out and 22:40 take all of the equipment out therefore 22:42 making Russia completely blind in the 22:45 area of around the sea this is already 22:47 paying in dividends because now Russia 22:50 needs to depend on the systems that are 22:52 located on the west side of Crimea to 22:57 make sure how that they spot any thing 22:59 approaching and Ukrainian Special Forces 23:02 already abusing this we see this the 23:05 most important with a strike in the 23:06 sevastopol harbor where Russian warship 23:09 and the submarine was hit in a dry dock 23:13 and potentially the biggest loss is 23:16 actually not the loss of the ships 23:17 themselves because the biggest loss 23:19 might be the inability to use dry dock 23:23 going forward for months because just 23:25 getting those ships out of there will be 23:27 problematic and without even talking 23:29 about what kind of damage was sustained 23:30 by the dry dock but more importantly is 23:33 how did this strike came to be because 23:35 the strike on this Dry Dock came to as 23:39 with recent video were discovered as 23:41 Ukrainian forces infiltrated Crimea via 23:45 the as they stated the submarine 23:47 apparatus so like proper Special Forces 23:49 and they were able to essentially 23:51 highlight by the guidance to their 23:54 missiles the targets to their command 23:56 and then confirm the destruction of 23:58 those targets so there were active 24:00 Ukrainian Special Forces present on the 24:03 peninsula in Crimea and now we know that 24:06 the same Special Forces help targeted 24:08 additional anti-air systems on the front 24:11 line we already know on Crimea we 24:14 already know that there has been two 24:16 additional 24:18 um 24:19 t s 400 systems destroyed including The 24:24 Radars which just help make Russia even 24:28 more blind in the area this opens a 24:31 whole Pandora's Box uh problems for 24:34 Russia because right now that means that 24:38 any further further operations that 24:41 Ukraine will conduct they will have even 24:44 less capabilities to control what is 24:48 happening with this western part and if 24:52 Russian eyes will continue to be taking 24:54 out then potentially I'm not saying 24:57 definitely but there might be a very 25:00 surprised operations and surprise front 25:03 lines opening for Russians that is a 25:06 clear possibility but it's a great job 25:08 and most important results of it right 25:10 now is that Russia cannot repair their 25:12 ships in synthetop anymore at least for 25:14 a while and a lot of their Fleet is 25:16 being pushed towards novarashisk towards 25:19 towards Carriage area so now this area 25:23 is almost non-operational for Russia 25:26 because there are Ukrainian boats and 25:28 obviously this mean that any kind of 25:31 trading Fleet vessels are now feeling a 25:35 lot more confident in going into the sea 25:37 area so we can say that Ukraine being a 25:41 country almost completely without the 25:42 Navy they are defeating strategically 25:46 Russia on their Naval Warfare this is 25:50 extremely nice and important to know and 25:54 we're gonna see how it will develop 25:56 there has been reports on the uh Special 25:59 Operations activities also in the area 26:02 of Pearson which is south over here but 26:05 we'll leave it for now maybe I'll cover 26:08 it in more details at some later point 26:10 after watching this recording I realized 26:12 that it was a little bit too long 26:13 already so I'm gonna make second part 26:15 tomorrow guys thank you so much for 26:17 watching this thank you so much to 26:19 moderators everyone that is doing 26:20 amazing job please support Ukraine and 26:22 the first comment under the video 26:24 support this channel if you can if you 26:26 can slab of Ukraine I love you guys 26:29 see you next time