Date: 2024-04-29 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00005460
Population
Ten Billion
Ten Billion ... a book by Stephen Emmott ... Sometime in this century, there will be ten billion humans
Sometime in this century, there will be ten billion humans. What does this population explosion mean for the planet? How will it affect other species? And what will we do about food and water? (Public Affairs Program) - Stephen Emmott is head of computational science at Microsoft Research in Cambridge, UK.On September 10, I attended a book presentation by Stephen Emmott titled 10 Billion. I wrote the following notes ahead of the presentation, anticipating what would be said. It may turn out that what I anticipated is wrong ... but based on what I expect this is what I think.
The world population is approaching 7.2 billion, and the data suggests that the impact on the planet is unsustainable at this level of population. In 2007 it was said that the European footprint was 2.7 planets. Recently I submitted a profile based on US norms and the answer was 5 planets. This is a serious issue.
My experience suggests that the problem is not the number of people, but what people choose to do with the lives ... how people live their lives. The situation can be changed.
It is also how we have chosen to organize the economy and society. For many decades, the ideal of progress has been more profit for business, more wealth for investors and GDP growth as a proxy for everything else. These metrics have been used as a proxy for progress ... but they are fatally flawed.
Something better is needed. I argue that way before we get to a 10 billion population we have to address the present systemic crisis in socio-economic policy that will result in a doubling or tripling of the number of high consuming middle class on the planet maybe in the next five years.
I am arguing for a massive change in the way we do metrics ... a reform of accountancy and quantification of all the asepcts of impact on people and planet using a system of standard values. I argue that organization should not be at the center of everything. Rather an economic activity in a place should be at the center, and the data associated with all economic activities then aggregated to give performance of an organization, a place and also a product.
Organization is the only arena for deep optimization of performance, but performance is only about profit. This must change to inclued impact on people and planet.
Place is where life is lived. It is where impact on people and planet are best observed. The core purpose of economic activity should be to improve the quality of life of people, without having a negative impact on planet. The impact on planet is (1) related to the depletion of resources; and, (2) the degradation of the environment, land, water and air.
Product is also important, because a product is where buy or not to buy decisions are made. A product also flows through a life cycle from the beginning of the supply chain, through several decision points to use and eventually into the post use waste chain. Product is where organizations invest in advertising and brand PR to encourage consumption, but society is not doing anything to ensure that this is offset by imformation about the impact of product in people and planet.
The issue of 10 billion in 50 years is of less importance than the issue of an increase of 1 billion to the modern high consuming middle class.
I see the academic community studying all sorts of things that are of low priority while ignoring some of the issues that are of great importance. I see the business community have a singular focus on profit optimization for the benefit of investors and top executives. I see the political community engaged in all sorts of self serving activities that perpetuate power.
I am looking for and don't see a massive effort by everyone to figure out and resolve what it is about modern society and the econonmy that is systemically wrong. As a starting point I would observe that it may well be that productivity is at the core of the systemic dysfunction together with the dominant metrics that glorify amount of growth without paying any attention to the quality of growth.
I want to ask, when are leaders going to understand the issues and start to pay attention/
Peter Burgess TrueValueMetrics