People are Central to Everything
People often make terrible decisions
Almost everything that goes on in this world is a result of decisions made by
people. The failure in the relief and development sector is all about people
making bad decisions, or perhaps more accurately, decisions that work for the
individual no matter what the consequences, no matter what sort of
disastrous results ensue.
People make decisions, and they do not do this in a vacuum. Decisions are
mainly made that are the best for the decision maker ... and even where there
are benefits flowing to others, there is an individual component to the
decision that cannot be ignored.
There is a level of complacency in a lot of decision making that explains why
big issues on the other side of the world do not get handled in a very effective
way. What does it really matter to me if people are being killed 5,000 miles
away? Why should I give up anything if that killing has little or no impact on
my good life?
This complacency is very prevalent in the “north”. The “north” has been
amazingly successful in the past 30 years in accumulating huge wealth, albeit
denominated in US dollars. It is easy to conclude that the decisions that have
been made have been good decisions.
“I'm all right Jack!”
This was a popular phrase in the UK back in the 1950s when the middle class was
doing very well. In North America and Europe, the white middle class was prospering
and nothing else very much seemed to matter. If people are doing well then other
issues get very little attention.
It took Russia's launching of Sputnik to shake the mood of complacency, and then the
civil rights movement in the USA and the end of colonial rule in Europe.
The events of 9/11/01 when terrorists struck in the United States should have served
to break down complacency about failed relief and development rather than simply
serving to strengthen a resolve to prove the “north” has a God given right to its
wealth.
Not taking notice about the failure of relief and development is certainly going to
undermine the security of the “north”, maybe soon, but definitely in the long run.
Where do priorities come from?
People make priorities, and what is priority depends where you are in the
global socio-economic structure. There are vast differences between priorities
as seen by people in different organizations and in different countries.
Those that work in the UN, the Breton Woods institutions, the bilateral
donors, the government in the “north”, the governments in the “south”, the
international NGOs are going to have different priorities than those that work
in the world's capital markets, and in the corporate world. The elite of the
“south” and the wealthy people in the “north” are likely to see things rather
differently than the poor ordinary people in the “south”, and indeed the
ordinary people in the “north”.
And it is likely that the priorities that people talk about might well change
based on the time of the week. What might be priority with the family at the
weekend, or at Church on a Sunday (Mosque on Friday, Synagogue on
Saturday) may be different from the priorities during the business work week.
Priorities are enormously important, since they are a critical factor in decision
making. Decisions are especially important when there are limited resources.
In general, priorities are determined by personal self interest.
My job ... my career
My job and my career are key to the decisions made by individuals. I used to
think that decisions were made in a vacuum and were objectively decided
based on the facts. But the facts that are mostly taken into consideration are
those that relate to whether the decision is going to benefit me, my family and
perhaps, at a stretch, my community.
Disaster Relief
The relief industry is not needed if there are no disasters. But the relief industry has
been a growth area, and is now very much an entrenched part of the relief and
development establishment. Humanitarian relief has been a good area to make a
career.
I was in Ethiopia at the end of the great famine in the 1980s. Millions had died, and a
huge relief community had grown up in Addis Ababa in response to the crisis. At last
rains had come, and crops were doing well for the first time in years. The UN's relief
operations in Ethiopia were closing down, the staff were depressed and getting ready
to leave.
While the boxes were being packed up, a fax came into the office. Locusts had been
found in a northern part of Ethiopia. There was a palpable happiness that this was an
impending new disaster, and the relief operations would need to be reactivated.
It was one of those moments that I will always remember with profound disgust.
Though it happened several decades ago, I remember it as if it was yesterday
... there was something deeply discomforting about this happiness on top of news of a
crisis that would kill people.
The lesson is that people want the work, and if work results from disaster ... the
more disaster the better. Relief consumes a lot of relief and development resources,
doing some immediate good, but very much at the expense of sustainable socioeconomic
progress.
It has been interesting to watch people in my age group go from being highly
motivated activists for change and a better world in their 20s, to being vary
careful and guarded about their jobs and their pensions as they aged and got
into their 50s. This is a reality and understandable, but it also explains in large part why
the sort of changes that are needed do not get done.
Organizational priorities are more than anything else about sustaining the
organization's existence and people keeping their jobs and their pensions.
People are not held accountable
Even though it is people that make decisions, there is very little systemic
association of results with people and their decisions. This is typical of
bureaucracies, but it does not result in results oriented decision making.
Because people are not held accountable other than in a limited way for their
job performance ... not at all through a framework of public accounting ...
people are doing a lot that should not be tolerated. People will always do the
easy thing, and will follow the incentives. There are no incentives for
excellence in personal and corporate citizenship.
Obscene Greed and Cruelty
Who is taking responsibility?
The global society is an unacceptable mess, with obscene greed and cruelty in
play. The world's leadership in the “north” is avoiding involvement and
avoiding responsibility and ordinary people are tuning it all out. But this mess
came about because people are making decisions all the time that have ended
up giving these results, including leaders in the “south”.
21st Century Robber Barons
The world's elite does not seem to believe that there is one human race, and
that all people should be treated right, that everyone should have some
opportunity to share in the world's wealth.
There is a community of elite that have a single focus on what is there in it for
me, and this mindset has been very profitable.
It was recently reported that hat the largest eight corporate organizations in the world
control more of the world's global wealth than do 50% of the world's poor. A
staggering amount of wealth has been concentrated into the world's wealthiest
groups and the corporate world.
People make war
War comes because there has been failure. People have many reasons for
going to war, few of them good.
Rarely do people go to war because it is truly the “right” thing to do. Usually
a war is started because some people see advantage in the war, and expect to
gain from it. And people do not stop war because they also see advantage
from it.
A lot of people have seen big benefits from war, especially a remote war.
Being a supplier of military equipment to groups at war can be very
profitable, especially if the groups are rich and the war is a long way off.
But war is a value destroyer as well as making profit for some elite groups.
The value destruction can be devastating ... and the human cost of war
something obscene.
People do violence
And on a more local basis, people do violence to one another. The reasons for
violence are usually greed in some form or other. And once there is violence
there is then the back and forth of retribution and revenge.
Violence is also a value destroyer ... and gets in the way of socio-economic
progress in all sorts of ways.
Incompetence or Brilliance
How good are staff and experts?
It is not at all clear whether international staff and experts are incompetent,
or brilliant and simply working towards a different end.
Many of the staff and
experts engaged in the relief and development sector are highly intelligent and
well educated. Many have a lot of academic credentials and many have
significant field experience, but it is a big question how much of this is
relevant, and how capable they are at addressing the practical issues of the
relief and development sector.
There are many issues. There is a prevalence of terms of reference (TOR) that
make it impossible for an expert to get the work done right. Consultants want
the work and rarely hold out for TOR that are meaningful.
And there is also the question about the comfort level of staff and experts in
the relief and development sector around accounting information and hard
data about performance. Certainly it is clear that there very few
professional and experienced accountants around the relief and development
sector, and the use of good accounting information is minimal. The UNDP
practice of budget adjustment is a typical example of the level of financial
understanding in the organization.
The old UN practice of budget adjustment
I had difficulty believing this when I found it.
For years and years the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) had a practice of
adjusting the budget of its projects to the actual expenditure prior to closing them
out. Under this system, there was never any reported variance between budget and
actual. Just a report of actual expenditures, with budget no longer in the record.
They also used to adjust the objectives in the project paperwork so that the final
reports would show that the projects achieved the objectives. The costs projected and
the objectives used to justify the expenditures at the beginning of the project simply
disappeared from sight.
Worse ... many of the UN staff did not seem to understand how inappropriate these
accounting mechanisms were. I do not know if these practices have been changed ... I
hope so, but they were the standard practice for much longer than a decade to my
certain knowledge.
Economic hit men
The business of business is “hard ball”, and the same goes for international
affairs. It should come as no surprise that all sorts of inappropriate behavior is
the norm rather than the exception.
The publication of information about “Economic Hit Men” is not really
surprising1. I did similar work to John Perkins, but without the “connections”
that he had, and without the need to satisfy clients. Rather I spent a lot of
effort trying to get the relief and development agencies to change their project
design so that it would actually do some good for the intended beneficiaries.
Kill the Messenger
Eventually I was deemed a non-conforming consultant and did very little
work for the World Bank Group after that. A few bank staff who wanted objective assessment, no matter
what the outcome, continued to give me assignments, but that was a very small group.
Overall it is sad to say, the experts who advised inappropriate projects were
able to get more funds and failure ... and therefore debt, than people like
myself who did not want to do a project unless it was designed to do some
good, and be repayable.
What happens to good work?
Good work is unacceptable to most relief and development organizations if
the conclusions are not in accordance with the wishes of the sponsoring
organization. Consulting assignments are rarely expected to give results that
are based simply on the evidence.
Liberia – Cooperatives and Other Organizations
A World Bank agricultural project in Liberia had, inter alia, encouraged the formation
of agricultural cooperatives as a way to improve rural sector socio-economic
performance. Our assignment was to confirm that cooperatives were effective and
that other parastatal entities were not an effective organizations in the sector. This
report with favorable conclusions was a condition for second phase financing of the
project.
I am an accountant. I can read financial statements ... if I am allowed to read then and
if they exist. It turned out that they did exist ... a small government office had done
audits of all the cooperatives in the country, big and small, and prepared audit
reports. I was told about the office, not by the project staff, but by some people in a
small cooperative who knew this work was being done.
Initially I was not allowed to go to the office, but I eventually did go to the office and
was told that I was not allowed to see the reports. Eventually I managed to see the
reports and was able to make a comprehensive analysis that showed more than
anything else the scale of the theft that was taking place in the big cooperatives
(supported by the World Bank project) and the excellent performance of the little
cooperatives run by community farmers.
I also showed that one of the parastatals was excellently managed and performing very
well and with almost no inappropriate political influence, while two other parastatals
were operating in a disastrous fashion with heavy political influence. The issue was
not the form of the organization, but the competence and the integrity of the people
involved.
The Government and the World Bank were not pleased. The conclusions of the
report were that the World Bank and project supported cooperatives were nothing
more than a vehicle for removing funds into private hands. The problem of next phase
conditionality for financing was easily solved. The World Bank and the government
agreed to remove the conditionality. And as for the consultants ... we never got the
pay owed to us!
Two years later the World Bank eventually realized that it needed to pull out of
Liberia ... nothing was working and it was embarrassing the World Bank!
There are exceptions. I have been employed on occasions simply because my
analysis tends to reflect the underlying facts, no matter what the
consequences. Good people and good projects benefit from this ... and it can
form the basis for thinking through solutions that will work.
Bad work
Too much of the consulting work that is done in the international relief and
development sector is not very good. There is not very much professional
oversight and accountability, so to a large extent anything goes, and in most
places there are far too few local people with the experience to challenge the
international experts.
Fish Meal in Malachal, Yemen (PDRY)
I visited Malachal. Yemen (PDRY) as part of a World
Bank mission in the late 1980s to see a fish meal industry investment and evaluate the performance of World Bank investments in fisheries.
It was not a good situation. There was a big fish meal plant, but very little fish were being caught to supply the
plant. Apparently some incompetent “experts” had recommended that the economies
of scale of a bigger fish meal plant would solve the problem of failed smaller plant.
The problem was not the fish meal plant, but the fish resource. Two seiners had been
operating and were catching much less than anticipated ... and with the resource in
question it was quite irresponsible to invest a lot of money in a bigger fish meal
processing operation.
In the original planning for the fish meal plant investment it was clearly set out that
validation of the resource was a critical first step to be done before there was a major
investment in fish meal processing. Subsequent consultants ignored this, as did the
World Bank experts and the government.
Relief and development consultants frequently do their work with a view to
doing more consulting work in the future, and put this ahead of a decent level
of professional integrity. Two common forms of this are: (1) the
recommendation that more study and research is done before taking any
decision about action, and (2) ensuring that the client gets a “feel good”
report, rather than one that get to grips with the issues.
A lot of academic consultants do their work with an eye on publication in
peer reviewed journals. This is good for an academic career, but not good for
relief and development progress. Peer reviewed journals have a very different
function in academia than good research studies in the relief and development
sector, which should, in my view, contribute to “management information”
and the ability to make better operational decisions.
People are Responsible for Corruption
There’s a hole in the bucket
Where has all the money gone. Over the past 40 years as much as $2 trillion
has been disbursed through the relief and development sector, and at the end
of this time there is a lot of debt, but rather little development. Many of the
problems of development are blamed on lack of money and financial
resources, without being specific about there the money flows are being
measured. The fact of the matter is that there a large amount of money has
gone into the system, but rather little of it has been getting to where it is
needed. Some of the fund flow loss is plain corruption and fraud, and some is
poor decision making.
Fund flow accounting is not done very well. There is little reporting that
makes tracking fund flows easy. Oversight breaks down as funds move from
organization to organization. Since in modern government and the relief and
development sector funds are commonly disbursed into another organization,
and often then disbursed further into other organizations, oversight becomes
totally non existent.
From an accountant's perspective, fund flow accounting in the relief and
development sector is one of the most obvious places to make substantial
improvement.
Accountants are Meant to Control Corruption
Bribery and corruption are not new. People have always been “for sale” but
the scale of modern bribery and corruption is probably at record levels.
I was introduced to the idea of fraud and bribery and corruption in a book
published in the 1930s called “Very Private Business”. It was loaned to me by my first accounting supervisor early in my training as a Chartered Accountant. While I was expected to learn the mechanics of accountancy, I was also expected to live and work in the real world. This book opened my
eyes to the creativity of people when a lot of money is involved. Later, when I
had my own accounting responsibilities in the US corporate arena I remembered
lessons from the book, and tried to build accounting and control systems that
would make it difficult, if not impossible for the creative crook to run off with
the company's assets.
When I started consulting in the relief and development sector it was a real
shock. Though there are many procedures and controls, and they are very
onerous, but they are totally useless. They serve to make it difficult for good
people to do a good job, and are virtually no deterrent to the rich and
powerful crooks.
Few of the basic but sound financial controls needed are in place. It was a
shock to find that huge fund flows were not accounted for, and were not the
subject of any oversight or corrective action for months and years. In my
corporate experience I would have wanted action tomorrow, if not already
today.
There were very few people around in the relief and development
organizations who had accounting training, even at a most basic level. With
no accountants in the dialog, it was very easy for everyone to fall into the trap
of simply talking about corruption and control as if talk on its own is going to
be enough. For some things, this may be so, but when it is the accounting
and control of money it is totally inadequate.
Very little of the funding gets to beneficiaries
Only a very modest amount of relief and development fund flows reaches
communities where ordinary people live and work. Most communities are
really “on their own” and rarely see any form of support either from their own
government or from NGOs supported by relief and development sector
donors. Without community level initiatives there is not going to be much of
visible and useful results. Funding flowing into government and into
parastatals and other government controlled entities has been almost 100%
ineffective as a vehicle to deliver fund flows to community activities.
The example of the shrimp project in Yemen (YAR) shows how creative
people can be. The project was turned into a major source of funding for
senior people in government, while the project became a totally dysfunctional
operation. When we (the supervision mission) identified the problems, we
recommended immediate remedial action, that was quickly agreed on a
technical basis, but subsequently was reversed at a high political level. It is
very difficult to do good accounting when the high leadership does not want
it, and will do nasty things to ensure that accounting does not become a threat
to fund flow diversion.
Corrupt Shrimp Project in Yemen (YAR)
But it did have benefits. The trawlers were costing considerably more than was
planned for the project, and much more than I would have allowed my old company
to pay. I learned conversationally that the billing price was higher than the original
quotes which is shorthand for saying that someone is getting rich at the expense of the
project, and as I learned more about the accounts of the project it was apparent that
almost everything was being substantially marked up.
The accounting information about project performance made it clear that the project
would never be able to justify itself ... and the mission team and technical staff of the
World Bank and a co-financier (DANIDA) quickly made the decision that the project
financing should be immediately terminated.
Later, I learned that the decision was reversed. Decision factors that had nothing to
do with the technical performance of the project meant that disbursements continued
to fund a totally failing project. No wonder there is unrepayable debt!
Where the profit opportunity and the maximizing of the value chain for
“north” benefit is worth a year, it is obvious that the business
decision should be to pay whatever it takes to ensure that this profit
opportunity is protected ... like an insurance.
From Nigeria in the 1970s
I was in Nigeria and friendly with some of the Central Bank staff in Nigeria at the
height of the cement scandal. Hundreds of shiploads of cement were sold to Nigerian
businessmen using irrevocable letters of credit. Because of a huge overload situation
in the Nigerian ports, there were very long waits to come in to unload. International
businessmen know their trade, and most of the ship charters were “time charters”
which means that payment for use of the vessel depends on how long it is being used
... and with the port congestion this became a very long time ... months instead of
days to get into port. With bribery it was easily possible never to get into the port.
The situation was totally out of hand, and a disaster for Nigerian businessmen.
The Central Bank decided that it would solve the problem by revoking “irrevocable”
letters of credit, something that had never ever been done by serious international financial
institutions. I commented at the time that in 5 minutes the Central Bank had done
damage to Nigeria's reputation that would take decades to rebuild. More than 30
years later, Nigeria's financial reputation is still a shambles.
So the result seems to be that a few very powerful local people ... the elite ...
get to earn a lot while the larger population of the country are taken to the
cleaners. People who understand the corporate logic, and get their salaries
and bonuses from the corporation, have little choice but to do whatever
makes corporate profit even though in an individual capacity they might
consider it unethical.
Bribery is profitable ... therefore widespread
It one looks closely, it is fairly easy to figure out ways to make money in the
“south”. The dynamic is different in most of the “south” because they are
“shortage economies” rather than being economies of abundance.
Brunei
The people of Brunei are poor, very poor. But the Sultan of Brunei has been listed as
one of the richest individuals in the world for decades.
Where did this wealth come from. For many decades Royal Dutch Shell has been exploiting the oil resources of Brunei. When you connect the dots, the conclusion is that the wealth of the Sultan and the poverty of the people are something to do with Shell.
Everything, I am sure has been “legal”. But that does not by any stretch of the imagination, also make it ethical and right.
The way to make money in a shortage is to hold out for the highest price. If
“government” chooses to regulate the price and hold it down, then the market
mechanism just moves into the shadows and the official low price gets
supplemented by some bribery that nobody sees. If I can afford it, and get the
goods ... what is so bad about that? It is, after all, the market economy at
work, and simply circumventing inappropriate control of the market by
government. Does it really matter that the local “rule of law” is being
flaunted ... it ought to, but probably does not.
More from Nigeria since the 1970s
I was working a lot in Nigeria during the early 1970s befoe the OPEC induced oil shock increased the price of
crude oil from $3.50 a barrel to $13.50 a barrel and made Nigeria and other oil exporting countries very, very rich.
During my many visits to Lagos, I stayed at the Ikoyi Hotel and watched the flood of foreigners, mainly
Europeans and Americans, who arrived in Nigeria intent on getting profitable
contracts signed no matter what. Most arrived with lots and lots of cash, which they
exchanged for signed contracts for everything under the sun. Most contracts were not worth
the paper they were written on, but the Nigerians were happy, and the foreigners
were happy until they got back to their homeland and realized how little of value they had for their money and
effort. These were heady times, and the world's greediest people were on a feeding
frenzy.
The business community from the “north” expected to bribe the Nigerians and profit
mightily. In fact, quite often, the Nigerians conned their new partners and the greedy
lost their investment.
And there was also the close association between the leaders of the Nigerian military,
the government and the oil companies and oil industry contractors. It is common
knowledge that government and government leaders in Nigeria, with a lot of their
friends and associates became fabulously wealthy through all sorts of schemes, and
largely at the expense of the national treasury and the Nigerian people. Though the oil
companies can probably prove that they did nothing illegal, there are few close to the
Nigerian situation that are comfortable with the oil industry's behavior.
The grand corruption practiced in Nigeria has distorted the economy so that the
country is almost insolvent while its elite are among the world's wealthiest.
No accountability anywhere. A lot of the country's economic activity is now in the
control of the corrupt, and the mass of ordinary Nigerians get left out.
Corruption is very well protected
There are lots of ways that money or value is removed from the system for
private benefit. But it is difficult to do very much about it, especially when the
amounts are substantial. In many parts of the world it does not cost very
much for someone to be eliminated ... and if some of the recent writing is to
be believed, this is not limited to the “south”.
Making Corrupt Money in Fisheries in Burma
A big part of the fishing industry in Burma was controlled by the government through an organization called the Peoeples Pearl and Fishing Compnany (PPFC).
PPFC was losing money operating large modern fishing trawlers, which did not make any sense
based on the nature of the fisheries resource and the characteristics of the fishing
vessels. As a former fisheries and seafood company CFO I knew something about the
industry and its operations. I also knew something of the state of the Burmese economy and its shortages. Something was going on.
As part of the World Bank mission we traveled by boat from Rangoon to the mouth
of the Irrawaddy River, the same route used by the PPFC trawlers. Many hundreds of
small motorized fishing vessels were active near the mouth of the river, and it
suddenly became clear what was happening. The large trawlers were supplying fuel to
these fishing vessels and making a fortune for themselves. The official price for fuel
was 3 and the black market price was around 30 ... so a good profit. And bluntly put,
private profit to benefit political leadership and the elite is much more use than the
profit from fishing that would accrue to PPFC.
And for small people ... there was another area of opportunity. When I looked
closely at the fuel storage facilities I noted that almost all the flanges joining the pipes
were leaking ... not a lot, but something. And under every leak there was a small can
collecting the fuel. The official economy of the country was not working, but there
was an underlying enterprise economy that was alive and well, albeit illegal.
Corruption is very difficult to contain, especially grand corruption. People
who benefit become rich very quickly and they can use this wealth to protect
themselves in many different ways, none of them very pleasant for people that
get too close to understanding the problem and doing something about it.
And there is a lot of money involved, people are willing to do almost anything
to get it and keep it. Rules are always going to be applied to the poor and
people with limited money, but rich and powerful elites are able to do a lot of
things without bothering too much about the rules. When the money is big
enough, after all, the laws and the rules get changed.
Poor People ... Human Beings or Pawns
Every person should be treated right
The world does not seem to believe that there is one human race, and that all
people should be treated right, that everyone should have some basic
inalienable human rights. The treatment of human beings is far too often
totally degrading ... and ought to be the source of widespread outrage. Only a
few seem to be concerned, and people with wealth and power do not seem to
be interested or listening at all.
Economic migration
With extreme poverty in a large part of the world, and stupendous economic
opportunity in other parts, it is not surprising that there are massive
migrations going on. Economic migration is not new. It has probably been
going on since prehistoric times ... but it is aggravated now by the terrible
failure of the relief and development sector in the “south”, and the amazing
recent wealth creation in the “north”.
People will take huge risks when life is already pretty much impossible, and
everything is hopeless.
Escaping from Ethiopia
Ethiopia under President Mengishdu was not easy ... and for some ethnic groups is
was especially bad ... and worse for people identified as being against the regime.
I knew a teacher who had this profile. In Europe or the USA, she would have been on
the fast track, and an asset to the educational establishment. But in Ethiopia she was
facing no job ... no money ... no future.
She had determined that she absolutely had to leave Ethiopia. She tried to get a
passport, but her money was stolen by the officials ... all of it. She was left with no
money and no passport.
With nothing, she decided to walk out of Addis Ababa over the mountains to Sudan
... to the refugee camps on the Sudan side of the border. I know she left. I don't think
she arrived. Hardly anybody did.
Laws to limit migration imposed by the “north” can slow the flows but not
reduce the pressure. The pressure to migrate will not be reduced until there
is progress in making a success of socio-economic performance in the “south”.
People with potential don't have a chance in far too much of the “south”. The
domination of peoples by the corrupt and powerful is feature of modern
governance and global society that is an absolute abomination ... and
widespread.
Brain drain
A flow of intelligent educated people from poor places in the “south” with
little opportunity for economic success to rich places in the “north” where
there are huge economic opportunities is normal ... it is the way a market
economy works. Laws can be passed to stop the brain drain, and people can
be coerced to stay where they are ... but again, the pressure to move is not
reduced.
Human trafficking
Money is being made by all sorts of unsavory middlemen who engage in
human trafficking. There is human trafficking associated with prostitution and
the porn industry in its many forms. Though it is usually illegal, it is also
profitable, and there is money also to be made from “protection”. There is
also human trafficking associated with economic migration ... getting people
into Europe ... getting people into the USA. The activities are usually illegal,
but the rewards are substantial.
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