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ATLANTIC SALMONCOMPANIESNORTH AMERICA
Atlantic salmon demand still outstripping supply, despite likely 2019 production increase
Cermaq salmon
SAN DIEGO, California, US -- Global Atlantic salmon production will increase in 2019, but not enough to keep up with demand, according to the salmon panel at the US Global Seafood Market Conference, held from Jan. 15-17 in San Diego, California.
“In the past, producers were able to respond to a lot of demand by increasing the production,” said Andy Wink, executive director of the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association, and analyst on the salmon panel.
However, since production was hit in 2016 by the algae bloom in Chile, the gap has not been closed (see below), he said. “There is a big gap between supply and demand and that is pushing up prices. The gap is probably even larger than shown here. It’s going to take a while to resolve that,” said Wink.
The panel forecast in 2019 is for overall production of 1.32 million metric tons in whole fish equivalent, up 4.8% year-on-year. 
Norwegian production is constrained by regulation and the maximum allowable biomass (MAB) cap, he said. Then, Chilean production was up 15% in 2018, but regulations limit growth in the short term. Farmed supply has shown more downside risk in recent years due to environmental and biological issues, such as disease and sea lice, said Wink. “So, where is the growth going to come from? Offshore farming, land-based farming, genetic modification and developing remote areas in Chile could eventually add supply,” he said. “Growth in Norway has been very slow; we don’t have much room to grow in current regulations. There are no new licenses, except the innovation licenses,” said Egil Ove Sundheim, the director for the US at the Norwegian Seafood Council. “Production is at around 91% of the MAB, so there is a small upside. However, this depends on the biological performance on things like sea lice, so the government is rewarding good performance,” he said. “There is room to grow in some areas up to 6% if certain environmental criteria are fulfilled, such as sea lice levels. The government is very focused on sustainable growth,” said Sundheim. The country’s government is giving some companies development licenses for innovations to boost salmon farming volumes, such as SalMar’s giant offshore rig. However, this is only going to provide a small boost in volume, in the greater scheme of things. “For the development licenses, those that have been granted will get a capacity of around 40,000t. SalMar’s project has started.” The development licenses could be turned into commercial licenses at the end of the period, “if all the criteria are fulfilled”, he said. “However, looking at the big picture, there won’t be any significant changes to global supply [from the offshore developments], given the demand situation we see.” In Chile, growth is also being limited by government regulation. However, companies are seeing positive results from their farms, which is driving increased production, said Daniel Montoya, who chaired the salmon panel. “From Chile, we have been seeing very positive farming performances. Our growth last year came from better productivity. We are not sure if we can maintain this level of productivity, however,” he said. Blumar and other companies are looking to Magallanes, Chile’s southern region 12, for growth. “The current harvest is around 90,000t [in Magallanes] and we hope to add 60,000t in the next few years,” he said. There is also the possibility of growth coming from land-based farming, the panelists said. The panel also featured Damian Claire from Atlantic Sapphire, which is planning to farm up to 90,000t of salmon in a land-based facility in Florida. There are also two companies looking to build up large land-based salmon farms in Maine. Then, the panel also featured Sylvia Wulf, who is now CEO of AquaBounty Technologies, which is farming genetically-modified (GM) salmon in Canada and plans to do the same in the US. “Land-based, offshore and GM could all provide that push to increase production in the future,” said Wink. Contact the author tom.seaman@undercurrentnews.com
By Tom Seaman
| Jan. 18, 2019 16:36 GMT The text being discussed is available at | https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/01/18/atlantic-salmon-demand-still-outstripping-supply-despite-likely-2019-production-increase/ and |