Why doesn't the US do more to contain and defeat China?
First of all we need to acknowledge one fundamental premise : the United States, after having its armed forces pushed back to the 38th parallel by China during the Korean War[1] , has always been actively containing China and looking for an opportunity to avenge for its failure to unite Korea under a US-friendly regime.
From the period of 1955 to 1990, the United States was fully fixated in sparring with the former Soviet Union to pay much attention in fixing China. During this time, China was able to develop, complete industrialization and transformed into an export-led economy with Deng's reforms/opening up policies from 1978 onwards.
After the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1990[2] , the United States had shifted its attention to contain the next potential up and coming competitor, China, but four guys bravely stood in the path of US plans.
The first guy is him:
In August 1990, he ordered the invasion of Kuwait[3] , and Bush Snr authorised the United States military to intervene to safeguard its oil-based dollar hegemony in the Middle East. The US military, by March 1991, had liberated Kuwait and declared victory, but for the next decade the US was preoccupied with sanctions on Iraq and labelling this guy as a “butcher” of Kurdish people to build up a case against him.
During the 1990s, China adhered to Deng's policy of keeping a low international profile, and was able to underdeclare its annual GDP to avoid attracting undue US attention(You can read my earlier analysis here:[4] ), despite being investigated twice by the World Bank for fidgeting its GDP numbers. During this time the US tested China's strategic resolve by randomly impounding a Chinese tanker in 1993[5] , intervening into the 1996 Taiwan Straits crisis[6] , and bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999[7] . The muted response from China convinced the US to disregard China and focus to consolidate its superpower status with a bombing campaign against Serbia[8](to show Eurozone who's the boss) , and military interventions in Somali[9](to show Africa who's the boss) and Haiti.[10](to show Latin America who's the boss)
In 2001, George Bush Jnr was elected 43rd US president and he designated China as a principle threat to America’s global dominance[11] . The United States officially launched the pivot to Asia to contain China by authorising plane reconnaissance flights deep into Chinese littorals which resulted in the Hainan incident on 1 Apr 2001[12] . The US would have stepped up containment if not for this second guy:
He organised a few terror attacks on US soil in Sep 2001[13] . The US went berserk and was distracted from containment of China as it shifted its strategic focus to Afghanistan and Iraq to hunt him down. In order to gain China's support in the 'War on Terror', the US relented and agreed to China's membership into the World Trade Organisation in December 2001[14] . With the ascension to the WTO, China's economy took off and enjoyed double digit GDP growth henceforth.
Meanwhile the US launched 2 simultaneous invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan to hunt down the 2 guys mentioned above . Bush Jnr declared 'Mission Accomplished' in 2003 and by 2006, was able to arrest, indict and hang one of the guys.[15]
By 2007, the US was able to force China to revalue the RMB[16] (with threats of a 27.5% tariff levied on Chinese imports) , putting extreme pressure on the export-dependent Chinese economy. Just as Washington was about to pivot back to Asia to contain China, the unthinkable happened : the Subprime crisis hit the US[17] . The US once again had to put off containing China to save its economy, with the former US Treasury Secretary travelling to China to secure Beijing's RMB$4 trillion support to buy US treasuries[18] .
With this Window of strategic reprieve, China was able to restructure its economy to be less reliant on exports and more internal-driven via consumption. By 2012, when the second guy was hunted down and killed by US SEAL team[19] , 44th POTUS Obama decided to pivot back to Asia to contain China, but many of his pivot policies were blocked by Republican-majority US Senate and Congress, relegating him to become a lame duck president.[20]
After navigating pass all obstacles, Obama was about to initiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership[21] in 2016 to exclude China once and for all from the world's major trading bloc, which will have a devastating impact on China's economy...and then the final unthinkable happened: this guy got elected as the 45th POTUS and teared up the TPP.
By 2018, China was nearly unstoppable as it completes restructuring its US$13.5 trillion economy via the Belt and Road Initiative, and moves up the manufacturing and technological ladder to become 'uncontainable'.[22] The US hastily launched a trade war against China and tried to kill China’s 5G tech champion, but was rebuffed by this brave guy:
With so many brave guys standing in the way, what MORE can the US do to contain China? Impeachment? …or to vote in this guy as the 46th POTUS?
The case is made!
Footnotes
- [1] The Korean War: Timeline
- [2] Dissolution of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia
- [3] Invasion of Kuwait - Wikipedia
- [4] Lin Xieyi's answer to Why didn't the USA try to stop China's economic rise 40 years ago rather than now?
- [5] Yinhe incident - Wikipedia
- [6] Third Taiwan Strait Crisis - Wikipedia
- [7] United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - Wikipedia
- [8] NATO bombing of Yugoslavia - Wikipedia
- [9] Battle of Mogadishu (1993) - Wikipedia
- [10] Operation Uphold Democracy - Wikipedia
- [11] US told to make China its No 1 enemy
- [12] Hainan Island incident - Wikipedia
- [13] September 11 attacks - Wikipedia
- [14] China and the World Trade Organization - Wikipedia
- [15] Execution of Saddam Hussein - Wikipedia
- [16] China revalues yuan and ends fixed dollar peg
- [17] Subprime mortgage crisis - Wikipedia
- [18] Breaking News, Analysis, Politics, Blogs, News Photos, Video, Tech Reviews - TIME.com
- [19] How SEAL Team Six Took Out Osama bin Laden
- [20] https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ob...
- [21] Trans-Pacific Partnership - Wikipedia
- [22] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oX...
Lin Xieyi ... Lin Xieyi, Keen Interest in Geopolitics
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