OVERVIEW
MANAGEMENT
PERFORMANCE
POSSIBILITIES
CAPITALS
ACTIVITIES
ACTORS
BURGESS
Climate Crisis | ||
|
Burgess COMMENTARY What Bjorn and others get horribly wrong about Dorian and climate change is that life as usual is not going to work. Some of the changes that Bjorn talks about do need to happen ... better building codes, sensible land use policies, etc. but there also need to be substantial efforts to reduce emissions to limit global warming, as well as funding mobilized for such efforts to happen. In my opinion, a world where AOC prevails will be a lot better than one where Bjorn prevails! Peter Burgess | ||
OPINION ... What AOC & co. get horribly wrong about Dorian and climate change
Getty Images With Hurricane Dorian striking the Bahamas and the East Coast, the climate blame game is now in full swing again: Global-warming activists, newspaper columnists, TV commentators and politicians are drawing links between climate change and hurricanes. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for example, warns, “This is what climate change looks like.” Presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders one-ups that, tweeting: “Hurricane Dorian has everything to do with climate change, which is the existential crisis of our time.” Julian Castro is also tying Dorian to global warming. They’re wrong, but their warnings fit a pattern. When hurricanes Harvey and Irma both hit mainland US in quick succession in 2017, critics claimed this was the “new normal.” In fact, those two storms, along with Michael in 2018, were the only three major hurricanes greater than a Category 3 to hit the continental US in the last 13 years. That’s a record low since 1900. For comparison, the average over the same timeframe has been nearly eight major hurricanes. It’s vital to consider the science. In its most recent assessment, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that “no robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes … have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.” Globally, the international scientific body finds “no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency.” What’s more, “confidence in large-scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones [big events like Superstorm Sandy] since 1900 is low.” The person who did more than most to link global warming to hurricanes was Al Gore. A poster for his movie “An Inconvenient Truth” showed a hurricane growing out of a smokestack, and the former vice president blamed Hurricane Katrina on global warming. Gore was following 2005 talking points from the Sierra Club that were intended for environmentalists looking to sell expensive limits on carbon emissions: “Ride the wave of public concern created over extreme weather,” the group advised. Activists continue to ride that wave by taking advantage of fear, and by misusing the fact that hurricane costs do keep escalating. Yet this cost spike isn’t caused by climate change but by having more people with more wealth live in harm’s way. Since 1900, the US population has risen four-fold, but Florida’s coastal population increased 67 times. Homes are bigger and have more expensive possessions. Moreover, adjusted for population and wealth, US hurricane damage actually has not even gone up since 1900. As a percentage of global GDP, global weather damage dipped from 1990-2017. And while it’s true that climate change will likely make hurricanes become somewhat stronger, it will also make them less frequent. A major study in Nature showed hurricane damage today runs the world about 0.04 percent of GDP. Accounting for growth in prosperity (which means more resilience), by 2100 this would drop to 0.01 percent. And the effect of global warming making storms fewer but stronger will see damage end up around 0.02 percent. No wonder researchers who study extreme weather and climate change warn that overselling the link risks eroding “scientific credibility” and distracting from the things we need to do to be better prepared for extreme weather. To reduce hurricane impacts, our first priority isn’t cutting carbon. Rather, we need to improve building codes. And we should not allow so many houses to be built on vulnerable coastlines. One way to achieve that would be to stop subsidizing home insurance for building houses most likely to get wiped out in hurricanes — literally a subsidy for building irresponsibly. We could also encourage more wetlands to soak up storm surges and undertake some of the many smart, adaptive measures in Mayor Bill de Blasio’s plan for NYC, including subway covers to stop underground lines flooding. We also need to keep in mind that more prosperous communities are better able to cope with disasters. This is especially clear when we consider the poor shantytowns in developing countries hit by hurricanes. They don’t need people in rich countries piously trying to cut carbon emissions, which will at best slightly ease their increased suffering in 2100. They need to grow their economies, feed their kids, stop easily curable diseases and expand access to education so they can move into the 21st century and boost resilience. For many in America, preparedness for hurricanes is a part of life. Activists and pundits divert our attention from smart policies to ineffective ones when they insist on linking today’s hurricanes wrongly to global warming. Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center. -------------------------------------------------------------------- SEE ALSO Andrew Yang proposes 'green' amendment to the Constitution Why 2020 Democrats' plans on climate change are pure fantasy Most Americans see catastrophic weather events worsening The left's ridiculous rage at Hudson Yards Joe Biden may pull out of fundraiser hosted by fossil fuel exec ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Bjorn Lomborg Bjorn Lomborg • 1st President at Copenhagen Consensus Center With Hurricane Dorian striking the Bahamas and the East Coast, the climate blame game is now in full swing again: Global-warming activists, newspaper columnists, TV commentators and politicians are drawing links between climate change and hurricanes. They’re wrong, but their warnings fit a pattern. When hurricanes Harvey and Irma both hit mainland US in quick succession in 2017, critics claimed this was the “new normal.” In fact, those two storms, along with Michael in 2018, were the only three major hurricanes greater than a Category 3 to hit the continental US in the last 13 years. That’s a record low since 1900. For comparison, the average over the same timeframe has been nearly eight major hurricanes. It’s vital to consider the science. In its most recent assessment, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that “no robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes … have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.” Globally, the international scientific body finds “no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency.” My new op-ed for NY Post:…see more No alt text provided for this image What AOC & co. get horribly wrong about Dorian and climate change nypost.com 147 23 Comments Images 10s Peter BurgessStatus is online Peter Burgess You Founder/CEO at TrueValueMetrics.org developing True Value Impact Accounting What Bjorn and others get horribly wrong about Dorian and climate change is that life as usual is not going to work. Some of the changes that Bjorn talks about do need to happen ... better building codes, sensible land use policies, etc. but there also need to be substantial efforts to reduce emissions to limit global warming, as well as funding mobilized for such efforts to happen. In my opinion, a world where AOC prevails will be a lot better than one where Bjorn prevails! 1d Gary Wagner Gary Wagner 2nd degree connection2nd Independent Environmental Consultant Ask yourself why, with a major storm on average once every two years, the buildings on these low-lying islands are not built to withstand hurricanes. There are no community shelters for the people, and few emergency response provisions. The islands have to wait for help from elsewhere that, despite knowing the storm was advancing on the Bahamas for several days, has still not fully mobilized. After over a century of experience, how is it possible for this to continue happening? Like Gary Wagner’s comment · 8 Likes 8 Likes on Gary Wagner’s comment · 6 Replies 6 Replies on Gary Wagner’s comment Load previous replies Load previous replies on Gary Wagner’s comment 17h Gary Wagner Gary Wagner 2nd degree connection2nd Independent Environmental Consultant David L Hagen, we can move mountains when we choose to. We don’t choose to. It’s the same as allowing families to live in trailers in Tornado Alley, year after year. Wiped out? Buy a new trailer. Like Gary Wagner’s comment · 1 Like 1 Like on Gary Wagner’s comment 58m David L Hagen David L Hagen 2nd degree connection2nd Efficient clean power and fuels Gary Wagner Rising out of poverty requires the people to recognize the issues and principles, and then change habits etc. See Poverty of Nations http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?id=1072 Like David L Hagen’s comment 4h Yogi Schulz Yogi Schulz 2nd degree connection2nd Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion The devastating destruction caused by hurricanes is increasing due to an increasing population and much more development of cities, businesses and homes in areas at risk. There’s no convincing data that climate change has increased the number or intensity of hurricanes. Regardless of your assessment of the benefits of transitioning to renewable energy generation, we can’t make a rapid transition at a price anyone is willing to pay. Our fossil-fuel based energy infrastructure was built over the course of more than a hundred years. We can’t replace that in a small fraction of the original time no matter how urgent some may believe the transition is. The best short-term response to climate change is energy conservation by citizens mostly achieved by driving less and using transit more. The second response is to improve energy efficiency by businesses and individuals. The third response is for those who can use renewable energy generation to actually do so. Perhaps China can be encouraged to do more through our example. #energy #energyefficiency #co2 #co2emissions #co2reduction #climatechange Like Yogi Schulz’s comment · 1 Like 1 Like on Yogi Schulz’s comment 15h Dennis Meloche Dennis Meloche Retired Petroleum Geologist Am I the only one that finds it appalling and an international embarrassment that our prime minister Justin Trudeau could offer the Brazilian government $12M in aid and the use of Canadian planes and personnel to fight farmers grass fires in the Amazon in the name of climate change, but would only offer the Bahamian people a mere $500k in aid after Dorian destroyed so much. Shame on him and his Liberal virtue signalling. Like Dennis Meloche’s comment · 4 Likes 4 Likes on Dennis Meloche’s comment · 1 Reply 1 Comment on Dennis Meloche’s comment 14h Richard A.J. Bartlett Richard A.J. Bartlett PRESIDENT OF HYDROFAX RESOURCES LTD Trudeau has his priorities all wrong. I hope all Canadians see this and remember Oct21st. Like Richard A.J. Bartlett’s comment · 1 Like 1 Like on Richard A.J. Bartlett’s comment 1d Kent Butler Kent Butler 2nd degree connection2nd Master of Arts, Environmental Studies, at City University of New York, City College I think it's odd that there is no mention of Category 5 storms during this same time period in other parts of the world. Like Kent Butler’s comment · 2 Replies 2 Replies on Kent Butler’s comment 1d Kent Butler Kent Butler 2nd degree connection2nd Master of Arts, Environmental Studies, at City University of New York, City College I recommend viewing “Rise of the Superstorms”, on PBS. This is NOVA, a series that explains the science to those who, for whatever reason, have yet to process it. What we, as a species need is more explanation of the data; it is the only way to reason- based on a foundation of facts. Like Kent Butler’s comment · 1 Like 1 Like on Kent Butler’s comment 5h Kent Butler Kent Butler 2nd degree connection2nd Master of Arts, Environmental Studies, at City University of New York, City College Basically, I follow the reasoning that hurricanes or tropical cyclones have the purpose of redistribution of heat; if we increase heat at the equator then tropical storms purport to mix the heat energy to achieve an average. Like Kent Butler’s comment 1d Jianhui Hong Jianhui Hong 2nd degree connection2nd Senior Director Of Engineering at Aereon The economic loss from Hurricanes is increasing year by year. But that has nothing to do with the intensity or frequency of the hurricanes. It has a lot to do with population growth, love of water front properties, and appreciation of the values of real estates. (edited) Like Jianhui Hong’s comment · 5 Likes 5 Likes on Jianhui Hong’s comment 2h David L Hagen David L Hagen 2nd degree connection2nd Efficient clean power and fuels Remember the clear statistical evidence of climate migration: From miserable cold inhospitable climates like Maine and New York To much more comfortable warmer near tropical states like Florida, Texas and Arizona especially near the ocean. PS cheap air conditioning from using stored solar energy provides comfort in summer! (aka gas & coal) Like David L Hagen’s comment 19h Harvey Glick Harvey Glick 2nd degree connection2nd Regulatory Policy and Scientific Affairs Thank you Mr Lomborg for bravely introducing some inconvenient facts into the climate change discussion. Like Harvey Glick’s comment · 3 Likes 3 Likes on Harvey Glick’s comment 1d Alexander Ahari Alexander Ahari 2nd degree connection2nd Founder at Resilient Partners I agree, the media misrepresentation of these events is nothing short of criminal. Like Alexander Ahari’s comment · 6 Likes 6 Likes on Alexander Ahari’s comment 9h Matt Johnston CFA Matt Johnston CFA 2nd degree connection2nd Director at MRJ Investment Consultants I’m prepared to be sceptical (somewhat) on frequency given you scientific ‘evidence’. However, can you comment on intensity. Because my understanding is that storm was off the scale. Like Matt Johnston CFA’S comment 1d David L Hagen David L Hagen 2nd degree connection2nd Efficient clean power and fuels Design principle in South Pacific 7 bolts per square meter. Like David L Hagen’s comment 16h John R Hogg John R Hogg 2nd degree connection2nd President at Skybattle Resources Ltd. Bjorn, thank you for the op-ed your data and arguments are sound. Like John R Hogg’s comment 1d Thuat Minh Nguyen Thuat Minh Nguyen 2nd degree connection2nd Organization Manager at WSP USA Tôi có thể làm chuyện cỡ đó hả. Quá khen quá khen, tôi tính lớn hơn tíSee translation See translation of this comment Like Thuat Minh Nguyen’s comment
By Bjorn Lomborg ... OPINION
| September 5, 2019 | 7:50pm The text being discussed is available at | https://nypost.com/2019/09/05/what-aoc-co-get-horribly-wrong-about-dorian-and-climate-change/ and |