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Photo of Joseph E. Stiglitz
Trump’s Rogue America
NEW YORK – Donald Trump has thrown a hand grenade into the global economic architecture that was so painstakingly constructed in the years after World War II’s end. The attempted destruction of this rules-based system of global governance – now manifested in Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the 2015 Paris climate agreement – is just the latest aspect of the US president’s assault on our basic system of values and institutions.
The world is only slowly coming fully to terms with the malevolence of the Trump administration’s agenda. He and his cronies have attacked the US press – a vital institution for preserving Americans’ freedoms, rights, and democracy – as an “enemy of the people.” They have attempted to undermine the foundations of our knowledge and beliefs – our epistemology – by labeling as “fake” anything that challenges their aims and arguments, even rejecting science itself. Trump’s sham justifications for spurning the Paris climate agreement is only the most recent evidence of this.
For millennia before the middle of the eighteenth century, standards of living stagnated. It was the Enlightenment, with its embrace of reasoned discourse and scientific inquiry, that underpinned the enormous increases in standards of living in the subsequent two and a half centuries.
With the Enlightenment also came a commitment to discover and address our prejudices. As the idea of human equality – and its corollary, basic individual rights for all – quickly spread, societies began struggling to eliminate discrimination on the basis of race, gender, and, eventually, other aspects of human identity, including disability and sexual orientation.
Trump seeks to reverse all of that. His rejection of science, in particular climate science, threatens technological progress. And his bigotry toward women, Hispanics, and Muslims (except those, like the rulers of Gulf oil sheikhdoms, from whom he and his family can profit), threatens the functioning of American society and its economy, by undermining people’s trust that the system is fair to all.
As a populist, Trump has exploited the justifiable economic discontent that has become so widespread in recent years, as many Americans have become downwardly mobile amid soaring inequality. But his true objective – to enrich himself and other gilded rent-seekers at the expense of those who supported him – is revealed by his tax and health-care plans.
Trump’s proposed tax reforms, so far as one can see, outdo George W. Bush's in their regressivity (the share of the benefits that go to those at the top of the income distribution). And, in a country where life expectancy is already declining, his health-care overhaul would leave 23 million more Americans without health insurance.
While Trump and his cabinet may know how to make business deals, they haven’t the slightest idea how the economic system as a whole works. If the administration’s macroeconomic policies are implemented, they will result in a larger trade deficit and a further decline in manufacturing.
America will suffer under Trump. Its global leadership role was being destroyed, even before Trump broke faith with over 190 countries by withdrawing from the Paris accord. At this point, rebuilding that leadership will demand a truly heroic effort. We share a common planet, and the world has learned the hard way that we have to get along and work together. We have learned, too, that cooperation can benefit all.
So what should the world do with a babyish bully in the sandbox, who wants everything for himself and won’t be reasoned with? How can the world manage a “rogue” US?
Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel gave the right answer when, after meeting with Trump and other G7 leaders last month, she said that Europe could no longer “fully count on others,” and would have to “fight for our own future ourselves.” This is the time for Europe to pull together, recommit itself to the values of the Enlightenment, and stand up to the US, as France’s new president, Emmanuel Macron, did so eloquently with a handshake that stymied Trump’s puerile alpha-male approach to asserting power.
Europe can’t rely on a Trump-led US for its defense. But, at the same time, it should recognize that the Cold War is over – however unwilling America’s industrial-military complex is to acknowledge it. While fighting terrorism is important and costly, building aircraft carriers and super fighter planes is not the answer. Europe needs to decide for itself how much to spend, rather than submit to the dictates of military interests that demand 2% of GDP. Political stability may be more surely gained by Europe’s recommitment to its social-democratic economic model.
We now also know that the world cannot count on the US in addressing the existential threat posed by climate change. Europe and China did the right thing in deepening their commitment to a green future – right for the planet, and right for the economy. Just as investment in technology and education gave Germany a distinct advantage in advanced manufacturing over a US hamstrung by Republican ideology, so, too, Europe and Asia will achieve an almost insurmountable advantage over the US in the green technologies of the future.
But the rest of the world cannot let a rogue US destroy the planet. Nor can it let a rogue US take advantage of it with unenlightened – indeed anti-Enlightenment – “America first” policies. If Trump wants to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, the rest of the world should impose a carbon-adjustment tax on US exports that do not comply with global standards.
The good news is that the majority of Americans are not with Trump. Most Americans still believe in Enlightenment values, accept the reality of global warming, and are willing to take action. But, as far as Trump is concerned, it should already be clear that reasoned debate will not work. It is time for action.
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Comment Steve Hurst JUN 3, 2017
daniele
Yes there is, a disgruntled Potemkin Villager
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Comment daniele simoncini JUN 3, 2017
There's nothing worse than a failed intellectual calling for a revolution. Will anyone care?
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Comment Michael H. JUN 3, 2017
MAKE CHINA GREAT AGAIN !
Trump is emerging as a true leader of “hoax” climate change now that he’s withdrawing the US from the Paris climate accord, thereby leading the two other nations as non participating nations, which are Syria and Nicaragua, and which comparatively produce only a fraction of the greenhouse gas emissions that the US does.
Problem is, unlike Trump’s America , Syria and Nicaragua’s non-paricipation isn’t because they believe climate change is a “Chinese hoax” .
In the case of war-torn Syria, it’s impossible for its government to commit to limiting Syria’s climate emissions due to a civil war. Nicaragua, on the other hand, didn’t join the Paris climate accord because it believes rich countries should pay more for climate change, as they were historically responsible for causing more damage to the environment and developing nations such as Nicaragua would be the worst hit.
Here we go, Trump is now emerging as a true leader – not on the world scene when he was caught on camera pushing past the prime minister of Montenegro during the NATO gathering to be at the front for the group photograph – but as a true leader of an isolated nation. Just like the isolated North Korea with its “true leader” Kim Jong-un who has been praised by Trump as a smart cookie.
While the Paris climate accord is not legally binding, Trump’s withdrawal of the US from it would only serve to undermine US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s call for an international rules of law based order during his speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue.
In deed, the longer Trump holds on to his presidency the greater again he makes China.
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Comment Liz Connor JUN 3, 2017
But Europe doesn't have the answer either. I think the only hope for our beautiful world is DiEM25. Check them out on the Web. Lovely, hopeful stuff.
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Comment Brent Beach JUN 2, 2017
It is not that Trump and his cabal don't know that what they are dong will have a serious negative impact on most Americans.
It is that they just don't care.
Comment Walter Gingery JUN 3, 2017
Precisely!
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Comment Steve Hurst JUN 2, 2017
Trump is the outcome of the failed policy that preceded him, but that never seems to be mentioned by those unhappy with Trump who seem to want to return to a golden age that never existed
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Comment Andrew (Andy) Crow JUN 2, 2017
Fortunately it matters not a jot whether Trump says the US is in or out of the Paris Climate Change agreement. Without the US it might be able to make some progress and the move towards sustainable power generation will will ride on market forces. The die is cast.
The progress and economic prosperity of the nation is not reliant on the vagaries, whims and foot dragging of politicians. They catch up eventually. READ LESS
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Comment Curtis Carpenter JUN 2, 2017
When did Clinton equate the 'white working class' with her 'deplorables?' It's telling if that's how you remember it.
Comment PUNDALIK Kamath JUN 3, 2017
Curtis: Sorry for misplacing my comment!
Comment Curtis Carpenter JUN 2, 2017
Sorry, that was supposed to be in reply to Jerry F. Hough.
Comment PUNDALIK Kamath JUN 2, 2017
She ñever referred to 'white ..' class at all. It was directed to many misogynistic , homophobic, jingoistic etc.Trumpys, in one of her political rallies!
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Comment Jerry F. Hough JUN 2, 2017
Stiglitz seems to have lost track of the last 25 years. There was the time that he spoke for the positive role of government (that is what he won his Nobel for ), correctly denounced Summers for his Hayek-like foreign and economic policy, denounced inegalitarianism. He said Iraq would cost $3 trillion.,
The Establishment dd not respond, but became worse. Obama was run by Summers and Rubin. Secretary of Treasury Law headed the division that did Cit's most risky investments, and his Undersecretary for Foreign Economic was head of foreign currency speculation at Citi. Obama wanted to appoint Summers head of the Fed. When the Democrats refused to confirm and forced him to pick a woman, he chose Stanley Fischer (VP of Citi) as the real Fed chair. Syria and Libya were more inexcusible than Iraq and the refugees tore EU apart.
When neither the Democrats or Republicans responded to Stiglitz analysis, Trump was the inevitable consequence. If he fails, the next one will be worst.
So naturally Stiglitz should have said 'I told you so' and called for change. Instead he is saying that he was always a Summer behind the veneer or has become one. He repeats the Goldwaterite Hillary's talking points--the Hillary who said the white working class are simply the deploribles.
Say 'It ain't so,' Joe, as they said about another sad case 100 years ago.. READ LESS
Comment PUNDALIK Kamath JUN 3, 2017
Jerry F Hough: You say,'...the Hillary who said the 'white' working class are simply the deploribles. ...'
Rubbish, she never said that. Why do you falsify Hilary's statement?k. I watched every debates of Trump vs Hillary. I suggest you search on UTube or google and he shall find the fact.
Comment M M JUN 2, 2017
Jerry, 100% correct, Trump is the inevitable consequences of BO/HC policies and actions. If he does not deliver, the one after him shall be by far a lot worst!
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Comment Curtis Carpenter JUN 2, 2017
Stiglitz states the case well -- but he fails to allocate enough of his disgust to the Republicans in the House and Senate that continue to cheer Donald Trump on, or the sycophantic Trump believers that continue to support him.
Trump is old, and will die soon in the natural course of events. Not soon enough perhaps, but soon. The same can't be said about the current Republican legislators (who have contributed nothing to the welfare of the people of the United States for many years now), or our fellow citizens that can swallow Trump's approach to 'making America great again' without gagging.
We often sadly say that Trump marks 'the end of the American century.' But in point of fact, Trump may mark the beginning of a destructive NEW American century that ushers in the reality of a Hobbesian state of nature in which everyone's life is increasingly solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short. READ LESS
Comment Curtis Carpenter JUN 3, 2017
I don't doubt that you have a significant emotional commitment to that magnificently distorted narrative Hank. But do you really believe that Donald Trump is going to a)increase white (!) American's life spans, b) boost middle class incomes (definition required) to 1980 levels, and c) materially reduce income inequality in the United States? Really?
As to the Hobbesian state of nature, I suspect that you don't have much contact with the real world. Ask somebody in Mosul, Allepo or Port-au-Prince what they think of how tough your current existence is. Be prepared to have them laugh in your face and perhaps call you some unpleasant things though.
I will concede that you and your kind may very well represent the New American, perpetually whiney, with no sense of history or the world, and easily manipulated by anyone who promises to cure your inadequacies and solve all your problems for you.
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Comment Hank Bones JUN 3, 2017
'But in point of fact, Trump may mark the beginning of a destructive NEW American century that ushers in the reality of a Hobbesian state of nature in which everyone's life is increasingly solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.'
At the time Donald Trump came to power, white Americans' lifespans were on the decline, the middle class had a real income lower than what it had in the 1980s, and income inequality was at its highest point in American history. Your Hobbesian state of nature existed - it achieved full fruition under Trump's predecessor.
The real question is, does the throwing off of stifling progressive orthodoxy and the embrace of sound negotiation, fair deals rather than self-sacrificing ones, and a return to the sorts of policies that enabled the golden age of America, from 1880 to 1950, mean the U.S. will become a worse place to live - or better? READ LESS
Comment PUNDALIK Kamath JUN 2, 2017
Michael Public: Mao died old and Mugabe too. Trump has acquired cfrom them a streak of crass authoritarianism . .
Comment Curtis Carpenter JUN 2, 2017
It's possible of course Michael, but statistically unlikely. I guess it will depend on how severely the Gods want to punish us.
Comment Michael Public JUN 2, 2017
'Trump is old, and will die soon...'
We used to say that about Robert Mugabe, now 93 years old.
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Comment Paul Daley JUN 2, 2017
Stiglitz dodges the question of how those committed to a rules-based system of global governance should deal with a rules-based system of national governance. The US Constitution sets clear limits on what the President can and can't do. Americans themselves will call Trump to account, if he goes beyond limits allowed in the Constitution. But the actions of most concern to the world -- pulling out of TPP and the Paris Climate Accord, questioning the Iran nuclear agreement and the commitment of other NATO nations to their own defense -- are all constitutional. There is nothing 'rogue' about questioning the judgment of your predecessor, particularly when those decisions rest only on his judgment and have never been locked in by legislative action.
Americans have strong opinions about policy positions, but they are even more committed to the rule of law. They will deal with Trump if he really does go rogue, but they're hardly likely to be stampeded into action by complaints from abroad about the policy positions the President has taken. READ LESS
Comment Marc Laventurier JUN 3, 2017
'. . . and Pangloss sometimes used to say to Candide: —All events are linked together in the best of possible worlds; for, after all, if you had not been driven from a fine castle by being kicked in the backside for love of Miss Cunégonde, if you hadn’t been sent before the Inquisition, if you hadn’t traveled across America on foot, if you hadn’t given a good sword thrust to the baron, if you hadn’t lost all your sheep from the good land of Eldorado, you wouldn’t be sitting here eating candied citron and pistachios.
—That is very well put, said Candide, but we must go and work our garden.' READ LESS
Comment M M JUN 2, 2017
Paul, the Rules are , there are no Rules, if there were any fair rules, humanity would not have been in the current state that it is currently in.
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Comment Michael Public JUN 2, 2017
Much ado about nothing.
1) Renewables are already cheaper and within 10 years will be half or lower cost than closest fuel based energy.
2) Widespread electric cars and automated car/ride sharing in 10 years.
3) No country (other than a few wealthy germanic/scandanvian ones) were actually planning to stick to the Paris agreement anyway - there is no reliable trace-ability of emissions and national economics is at stake.
4) 2 degrees is going to be a disaster for certain areas and refugees will move - 100's of millions will attempt to migrate.
5) Global warming works on CUMULATIVE c02 - even if we cut emissions to half current levels we will still reach 2 degrees in time, then 3 degrees and then 10 degrees. Until we start with zero C02 emmisions worldwide the a climate disaster is just a matter of time. READ LESS
Comment M M JUN 2, 2017
Mike, JES is trying to defend the old world order of which he was part, times have moved a long way since.
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Comment jagjeet sinha JUN 2, 2017
THE ENLIGHTENMENT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT
In the months preceding his victory, The Establishment and The Media exposed all of TRUMP - to ensure HRC won.
Donald Trump was presented exactly as he really was - there was no charade, HRC was clearly a show that people saw through.
The striking similarities with the Brexit Referendum was more than coincidental - The Enlightened World disapproved of Brexit.
Despite The Establishment disapproval - both Brexit and Brexit plus plus happened. People are not stupid.
Democracy allows people to explore their deepest sentiments - and VOTE for the best of options available.
Hillary was clearly MORE OF THE SAME. Americans wanted a departure from their predicaments.
There was a reason why The Enlightenment of The Establishment was rejected.
Not only in America and Britain - but in India in 2014 ushering in Modi - and in France in 2017, The Establishment Parties were out.
So, the need from Nobel Laureates is for greater understanding - why The Enlightenment of The Establishment was voted out.
Seven Decades of Darkness had marginalized India's Heartlands - The Modi Mandate galvanized The Truth.
Britain had suffered progressive marginalization inside The European Union - Brexit recognized The Truth.
TRUMP was an attempt by America's Heart to remedy a disease - that The Establishment had no cure for.
France in 2017 understood that European Union was The German Commonwealth in reality - Macron means Vichy France not wanted.
Perhaps The Enlightenment needed - is a departure from Conventional Wisdom.
There has to be a reason - when One door shuts, another is opened.
JS
PS Hint - The Dow would not have crossed 20 000 even if President Clinton tried.
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Comment PUNDALIK Kamath JUN 2, 2017
How can carbon adjustment tax work As a tool here? It is a myth that this act will create in coal industries and it is better to train workers in other sectors, especially in service industry .
Comment Hank Bones JUN 3, 2017
It's not for the climate. It's for the banks:
https://www.americanbanker.com/opinion/banks-key-to-determining-success-of-paris-climate-deal
It's what this whole thing was ultimately about. And it's part of why the global elite are so furious Trump through a monkey wrench into the plan. (the other part being, obviously, the depowering of the U.S. and empowering of the third world this treaty was supposed to effect) READ LESS
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