Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess

Inside Story - What's behind Turkey's failed coup?

https://youtu.be/p_yN41SN_FI

Al Jazeera English Al Jazeera English Subscribed Add to Share More 2,909 views 50 7 Transcript English (Automatic Captions) 0:00back in control 0:03Turkey's president warns of severe consequences after a failed military 0:07cool but what were the motives behind the attempt to overthrow the government 0:11and what does it mean for democracy in Turkey 0:15this is inside story 0:33hello and welcome to the program I'm fauzia Abraham after a violent night 0:38that saw bomb blasts air strikes and gunfire across Turkey hundreds of people 0:43have been killed or injured 0:45President Richard I better one says his government is now in control and that 0:49the attempted coup has failed 0:51the president also warns that those responsible will be paying a heavy price 0:56many arrests have followed some soldiers have surrendered by the president wants 1:00his supporters to remain vigilant at the heart of this failed cool is the role 1:06played by turkeys people thousands came out in support of their democratically 1:10elected government and turkeys acting chief of staff has thanked them for 1:16their support during the crisis 1:18zoom - seventeen where - woman was this attempted coup 1:22has been pushed back by the turkish armed forces are people invited by our 1:26president and Prime Minister walked into the streets and squares in front of 1:30tanks and other military vehicles and prevented the coup success 1:33this was a historic cooperation between the state and the people of Turkey 1:37however Turkey has witnessed the madness of a group which fired and bombed its 1:40own Parliament its own people 1:42its own resources this will never be forgotten we are grateful to every 1:46citizen who stood for democracy 1:48Turkey has closed the area of military coos once and for all 1:51now military crews in Turkey have overthrown for civilian governments in 1:56the past 50 years 1:57a young military officer carried out the first cool in the Turkish Republic in 2:02nineteen sixty the president Prime Minister and others were arrested and 2:06tried for treason 2:08eleven years later and economic downturn led to widespread unrest the military 2:13stepped in to try and restore order in nineteen eighty violence between left 2:18and right wing groups led to another military coup hundreds of thousands of 2:23protesters were arrested and dozens were executed in 90 97 the military offered a 2:29series of what it called recommendations after the rise of the welfare party 2:34the Prime Minister was forced to resign 2:37well since President Richard i bared awana and the AK party came to power in 2:422002 the role of the military seems to have diminished turkey is dealing with 2:47several issues including a Kurdish separatist movement combating the armed 2:52group ISIL the war in Syria and the refugee crisis President everyone has 2:57been accused of targeting hundreds of military officers / investigations into 3:02alleged cruise 3:03many of them were put on trial and some were forced into a new retirement 3:08during this time the police and intelligence services were strengthened 3:12to counter the role of the military after friday night's attempted coup 3:16other one says those responsible will pay a heavy price 3:20it's time now to bring in our guests and in is down below we have galop de la 3:26he's a senior fellow in Turkey and Kurdish studies at the al jazeera center 3:31for studies in bruni say in Evelyn's joining us on skype we have in lesser he 3:38is the senior director for foreign policy at the German Marshall Fund of 3:41the United States also in Istanbul we have John Cacioppo glue defense analyst 3:47at the center for economics and foreign policy 3:50thank you so much for being with us that Gallup delay if I could start with you 3:55the cool seems to have started strong we saw dramatic footage of soldiers and 4:00tanks on the bosphorus bridge 4:03we saw the Parliament being bombed we saw the national broadcaster being taken 4:07off a and then it fizzled out 4:11why well actually it is starts all as strong in the first place 4:18it showed that it tried to show the image of the strength but the cool has 4:23started from a very set in a very weak . and it was more an expression of 4:28desperation and weakness actually rather than scratching and strength 4:32it was the first reason for it is that it was quite weak is because it did not 4:37have a consensus within the military 4:40the most of the military that we knew even doing to endure the cool when the 4:44crew was in progress 4:46we knew the public 4:47you that a vast majority of the military are not in favor of this school and in 4:52one way or another everyone knows it 4:54and the second that the cool tried to replicate a a tactics that long for the 4:59nineteen eighties nineteen seventies when you could like you know when you 5:03could take over the state broadcast state broadcasting institutions and 5:08there was no other private and no other know in other broadcasters vision no 5:13social media so once you could take over the state was getting his vision 5:18basically you you would have the ultimate power over the information flow 5:23but when this happens the bad people like on social media people through 5:28private channels to bring people to Twitter's facebook all southern that has 5:33been news husband's spread all over the turkey and the voice of the criticism 5:37came in immediately immediately so a very significant backlash from people 5:42immediately you start to see like you know people more and more trying to take 5:45him to the strength to the street and the government officials very soon 5:51appeared on the public television or true the based on messages is sorry 5:57private TV channels or to the face some messages or using other social media 6:02account they they frame the cool 6:05very well they more or less told the people who are behind it and they also 6:10convey the message that the very large segment of the military is not you know 6:16this action 6:17so what has started what what what try to like get that image of strength 6:22actually was and side and a sign of desperation more than scratch 6:28unless it in this if I could bring you into the discussion now 6:33was it a case of poor planning on the part of those who decided to launch the 6:37coolers in a case that they underestimated the sort of support that 6:40they would get well I suspect it was both sigh I think 6:45garlic is absolutely right this was obviously a small faction potentially a 6:50very small faction within the military 6:52there wasn't a broad base of support within the military establishment and 6:56certainly there wasn't a broad base of support in society 6:59on and it's you know we're obviously going to have to learn a lot more about 7:03the motives and how this unfolded 7:05but it seems to be rather amateurish it in many different levels and and as it 7:10has been observed something in terms of its tactics that might have been 7:13appropriate decades ago but simply does not work in a age of modern media 7:18I think that's exactly what we saw here John casa problem ever since everyone's 7:23election in 2003 we've seen the military's power decline 7:28was this a desperate attempt by certain factions within the military to try to 7:33reclaim that power 7:35well first we should understand the characteristics and the profile of the 7:40careers my colleagues just mention this is a small faction within the armed 7:44forces 7:45this is complete out of the chain of command so yes this could be a desperate 7:49action by the remnants of the problematic civil-military relations 7:53tradition of the nineteen nineties and before but in general the transform 7:58civil-military relations into a more democratic Western standardized one just 8:05kept the high command or the Turkish Armed Forces out of this plot so far 8:10according to the open news that we have been following in Turkey there is only 8:14one single four star general within the Turkish Armed Forces who was completely 8:19removed from power positions who is edge of the involved with this plot than all 8:25other top chain of command of the turkish armed forces were in support of 8:30the democratically elected government 8:32so this could be the the the last remnant of the this problematic see 8:38military relations or the the Turkish domestic politics mr. Castle problem let 8:44me follow up by asking you this question and the the thousands of people that we 8:48saw streaming on to the streets in opposition of this cool was that a 8:55rejection of the cool 8:57our was that in support of everyone 9:00or was it a support of democracy 9:04well I think all of all the options all of the ideas that you have voice were 9:14mixed up in the feelings of the Turkish people i can say that this failed coup 9:19attempt birth water in three miles storms three historic milestones 9:24yesterday all right the first one was present are gone calling people 9:29a wire facetime in a live TV broadcast called people to the streets to take up 9:35democracy and defend their democracy defended democratically elected 9:40government that was the first turning point and the second turning point 9:43before before President just called people for defending democracy the Prime 9:49Minister openly was that and explained that the coup is overrun by the coup is 9:58overtaken by a small giunta within the Turkish Armed Forces and he just called 10:04this 10:04we just called the coup attempt as an uprising is an illegal uprising of a 10:08small group within the Armed Forces so this was the second turning point and 10:11the third turning point my son . or the overnight was the commander's like to 10:17stir and three-star generals they just lined up to the light TV broadcast and 10:23openly ordered their units to return back to their barracks and top 10:27commanders of the Armed Forces why a Turkish media they openly open the state 10:32that the Turkish Armed Forces top chain of command is not in support of this 10:36year ago 10:37quiet and rest all these three milestones were also translated on the 10:42street as mix-up reactions of the Turkish people get it done i prophesy 10:47again a delight was the coup is failure a reflection of support for President or 10:51the one or support for turkeys democracy 10:54some people would say it's two separate things or well I think for this matter 11:01for this matter specifically it wasn't true different things for this matter 11:05specifically it was more or less the same thing like you know on other on 11:10other issues you can perfectly say is that two different things and 11:14it is at two different things but on yesterday's event it was more or less 11:18seen as one 11:20so not everyone took up a stand against is a failed coup was the sport of the 11:26awkward that I think one of the very important whole market yesterday that 11:31the rejection of this coup attempt was not a partisan it was not only the 11:35governor out party but but but it was all the leader of the parties 11:40represented within the Parliament came forward against the school and also 11:44another very significant development I think yesterday that there were two 11:49heroes one of the turkeys public but the another one was turkeys media turkey 11:54media usually known for its more quality me that isn't usually know for its you 12:00know less of credit but yesterday when it came to this taking a stand against 12:06at this cool 12:07Turkish media whether critical whether critical to block party or supporter of 12:12it whether on the left or right we're all the weather the Kurdish all you know 12:15the Turkish nation on this 12:17they took them more or less a united stand against the cool 12:21so in a sense one of the major lessons that one can draw from yesterday's event 12:28is that the issue of democracy the resistant towards and toppling a 12:34military toppling of the Civil politics has long past has now become and non 12:40partisan issues which i think is one of the strengths of stories democracy and 12:45one of the strengths that can further that shows the mature toaster finish to 12:50work with their right and i think here also the government has a very 12:53significant responsibility 12:55seeing that the people are not condoning it's over Troy by an alleged means the 13:02government should take comfort from this and use this as a platform for national 13:07reconciliation 13:09saying that even the media critical to him 13:12even the people who are critical of them even the opposition within the party 13:16they all rejected illegal toppling of him should give him a comfort and should 13:21initiate a new nationwide reconciliation mothers because what has started as a 13:27manager says that they can turn into n a bull for turkeys national reconciliation 13:33right I want to come back to that point a little later but a and lesser we've 13:37been looking at the domestic reaction in Turkey let's take a look at how the 13:43International reaction to this failed kuna it was Swift 13:49I just want to call it a few things to you the u.s. White House said that all 13:52parties in turkey should support the democratically elected government of 13:56Turkey 13:57German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the democratic order must be 14:01respected in Turkey the european union said it fully supports the 14:05democratically elected government natural call for all party to respect 14:10turkeys democratic institutions it's interesting that not one of those 14:14statements mentioned support for President error one 14:18what are you reading into this well i think they said exactly the right thing 14:24and of course this is the approach that Western governments have taken in many 14:28cases not only turkey in the past but also looking to other settings like Asia 14:34where civil-military relations are fundamental part of our relationship and 14:40and so I think this is precisely the point and you know it really isn't about 14:43support for President air to water the ATP government / say it is a point about 14:48support for democracy the subordination of military to civil power and turkey so 14:53I think in that sense everyone was pretty much on the same page and it was 14:57very predictable page in the correct one on 15:00I that said it's not a surprise that in Western governments there has been a 15:05great deal of disillusionment with President arrow on and the AKP 15:09government in recent years but i don't really think that comes into play here i 15:13think for governments in Europe in the United States it really is about 15:17civil-military relations it's about democracy 15:20it's about the desire not to see further cruising turn 15:22turkey is the second largest military establishment and NATO what happens in 15:28civil-military relations in Turkey actually matter a great deal 15:32arm the sort of thing that you saw you know it's pretty much unthinkable in any 15:37other NATO setting and so this will inevitably disturbing to people and 15:42people will be trying to parse the implications of this for some time to 15:46come 15:46john cassidy blue I just want to take up in something that mr. delay had said and 15:52that is President everyone should use this opportunity to push for national 15:57reconciliation as we know the there is some discord particularly with the 16:02Kurdish faction has a lot of discord within turkey itself 16:07do you think he will use this to push for national reconciliation or do you 16:12think he will use this to further strengthen his own executive powers 16:16this is the best chance for president aired want to unify the nation around 16:22the very goal of establishing a prosperous democracy for turkey because 16:27yesterday as my colleagues just said all the parties including the opposition 16:33parties including the heart of a house opposition against everyone within the 16:37Turkish press itself were in support of the democratically elected government 16:42and the present and against the coop 16:44so now we have a cross in Turkey and i think president everyone just so that by 16:49by unifying the nation 16:51he could gather support us together the support of the circles within the 16:56society that have never been in support of the president and so from now on I 17:02think that the most important determinant or 17:04the trajectory in Turkey would be the prosecution because now is we are just 17:09are on our broadcast 17:12there are approximately like 3,000 men in uniform under arrest for 17:16communications and this seems to extend to turkey should be Cirie and others and 17:22circles of the capital Ankara 17:25so the the answer to your question is basically i think president are done 17:30within I in an ideal situation 17:32opt for unifying the nation around a prosperous democracy after the 17:38successful managing at the crisis or overnight but the prosecution itself and 17:44the reveal details as soon coming will determine the trajectory of of the 17:50Turkish administration in letter i want to bring you back in now there is a 17:54thought that perhaps as president of one has been pushing for to grant himself 17:59even more political power by changing the Constitution to create an executive 18:05presidency do you think he will use this opportunity to strengthen his power even 18:10more under the name of national security 18:12well i think you know as our discussion is so far focused on the arrow on and 18:19the AKP government will now have a choice 18:21what political path to take going forward I path of reconciliation or 18:26passes consolidation of our on you know 18:31to date the history has been one of consolidation pressing for a 18:35presidential system 18:36I you know it is very clear that up position 18:41liberal forces in Turkey are going to be watching very closely to see what comes 18:45out of this 18:46mom I would hope as has been saying that the government takes the opportunity to 18:51take a more open approach towards reconciliation because turkey has a 18:54number of extremely violent cleavages at the moment that need to do we reconcile 19:01but this may not be the case and there is also the option we have to recognize 19:05that Turkey will go down the path of further polarization 19:09I in any case this is going to make it very very difficult for turkey to deal 19:14with the international environment 19:16tourism investment other aspects of turkeys international connections will 19:21be watching all of this very careful 19:23mmm now and get up - I let's let's broaden out this discussion a little bit 19:27more of course whatever happens in Turkey has an impact on the region as 19:31well what do you think this attempted for this failed crew what message is 19:36that sending out to other countries in the neighborhood and I'm thinking 19:42particularly in Syria where everyone has made it very clear that President Assad 19:47has to be removed from power 19:52well i don't think that this particular yesterday's a failed cool in its out has 19:58a very significant impact on the turkeys regional policy if anything that sends 20:04the message to a region that the current out party government is there and strong 20:10and particular order this failed attack at the failed coup attempt and there is 20:16the only way to change his government is true democratic means and that's what 20:21not given the fact that it doesn't look like that we're going job election 20:24anytime soon 20:26and this is the government that they need to deal with and this is the 20:29government that they're going to deal with so right now if anyone has any hope 20:33to get rid of this government true non-democratic means more or less that 20:37has been used and squandered and there's not a way to go and the secondly I think 20:43we have talked about the yesterday's a cool failed call very much but we 20:49haven't talked much about like you know who was really behind it 20:53there isn't a single group in Turkey that has any doubt about who actually 20:56was behind it which is you know which is the good in this moment within Turkey 21:01and I think for any foreign or domestic power they were less will say how 21:08limited the value of the goodness as an ally in the fight or in their dispute 21:14with their with our party government or with the president forty 21:18 so this is right now 21:19well and white let me then just stir the question to even lesser 21:23unless they do you think the googliness movement is throw is a real threat to 21:28other ones party everyone's leadership and indeed to Turkey 21:32well there's no question that President marijuana and a katie has seen the goal 21:37of this movement at least in recent the recent years as a threat but the 21:42question of whether they're behind the school it seems to me is entirely open 21:45what are we don't really have evidence for that yet 21:49one would not have thought that they have very strong following in the 21:52military 21:53perhaps another part of the civil service and judiciary perhaps the 21:57security services i think that might have been clearer 22:00uh but in the military I'm not so sure on my there are many possible motives 22:05for this from disgruntled officers to kind of nostalgic attachment to an old 22:11style of cannibalism 22:13I military involvement in political relations in Turkey 22:17I the notion that the goodness movement is behind all of this I I think we need 22:22to treat that with a fair amount of skepticism 22:25John cast upon a time and again Prime Minister children had underscored the 22:29fact that this cool was a test for turkeys democracy going forward 22:34how do you see this failed coup shaping turkeys democracy 22:39well first of all we should see that aspects of democracy the first thing 22:44when it comes two failed attempts or equal data it is three military 22:48relations the timing of the cool 22:50the coup attempt was very important because it took place right before 22:53turkey Supreme Military Council which is the main top body of all the promotions 22:59and appointments within the Turkish Armed Forces stop chain of command 23:03so most probably we're going to see a very important reshuffle in Turkey's 23:08supreme military council decisions in august two thousand sixteen that this 23:15this book determine the next decade of turkey Syrian military air 23:19relations and secondly we see that the Turkish people 23:23cited by the democratically elected government while they were there 23:28particle wheels or political parties that they are supporting our this is 23:32very important that this was promising for Turkish democracy and also the 23:37position of Turkish media was very important 23:40from now on we we could be optimistic about the trajectory of Turkish 23:45democracy with one reserved and I which I mentioned before the results of the 23:52prosecution because the where question of who is behind this school is very 23:56important and the answer to this question would define the fate of 24:01relations with Inter domestic political relations within Turkey and but i think 24:09till after the overnight what happened overnight and it sort of coup attempt we 24:13have ground 0 for being optimistic 24:16we're going to have to leave the discussion there thank you very much 24:18gentlemen for being with us thank you to gallop delay in letter and john casick 24:24no clue 24:25and thank you too for watching inside story you can always watch the program 24:29again any time by visiting our website at aljazeera.com and for further 24:33discussion you can always go to our facebook page that's facebook.com 24:37forward slash AJ inside story again you can always join the conversation on 24:42twitter handle is at aj inside story for me fancy everything in the whole team 24:47thanks for watching 24:56yeah Published on Jul 16, 2016 The Turkish government says it's now in full control after a faction of the military attempted a coup. Presenter: Fauzia Ibrahim Guests: Galip Dalay - Senior Fellow in Turkey and Kurdish Studies at the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies. Ian Lesser - Senior Director for Foreign Policy at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Can Kasapoglu - Defence Analyst at the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies. - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: http://www.aljazeera.com/ Category News & Politics License Standard YouTube License SHOW LESS COMMENTS • 31 Add a public comment... Skip navigation Upload 3