Not a Single Silver Bullet
Hundreds of Issues
Success in relief and development and the achievement of socio-economic
progress is possible ... but only when the constraints on success are addressed.
In my experience, there are hundreds of issues that constrain success, all of
which need to be addressed.
Analysis of Relief
I have done many ... hundreds ... of evaluations of relief and development projects
over a period of many years. Most had a single sector focus, and most did rather
little in terms of creating durable value.
A big part of the failure was the hope that improvement in one sector would be of
value ... when success was constrained by all sorts of issues that also needed to be
addressed.
Even multi-sector initiatives failed because almost all the institutions engaged in
relief and development work have limited mandates ... and at some point they are
constrained from doing everything that is needed.
One of the nasty examples is how corruption has been protected by ideas like
“sovereignty” and it being construed as “political” and not “economic”.
The relief and development process is not simple ... in fact it is complex and
chaotic. But so is light. A strategy for success must recognize complexity and
chaos and organize so that can be progress.
Making sense of chaos
The challenge is to address a lot of issues ... all of the issues that are applicable to
any single situation. My approach to handling chaos is to have sensible
simplification, multiple solutions, many alternatives rather than a single
solution, not just one way but many ways to progress ... and if something goes
wrong, there are many things still going right.
Separately, I write about people and communities, and suggest that it is more
practical to look for solutions at the bottom of the pyramid rather than simply at
the top of the pyramid ... one set of issues in one community, and maybe another
set of issues in another community. Or perhaps some issues apply to a set of
communities, and another set of issues apply to another set of communities. The
need is to appreciate a lot of issues, and to act to address them in an appropriate
manner.
And in this regard, addressing one issue, and creating another is not a good
outcome.
Managing a complex set of issues ... managing chaos ... is a challenge. What we
do know is that simple, heavy handed solutions are not going to work.
Some of the issues
The following is by no means a complete set of all the issues ... but it is a start. A
companion book “Hundreds of Issues that Impact Relief and Development” that
was published in August 2006 contains more than 300 different issues ... and is
by no means complete.
Immediately following some of the bigger issues are described ... and then in
alphabetical order a lot more of the issues. Hopefully, this will make the point
that managing in the face of so many issues is a challenge and not at all suited to
the sort of management that is practiced in huge hierarchical organizations like
the military and government, even the most democratic.
Violence ... or Peace?
How peace can be achieved
Peace can be achieved by removing the causes of conflict ... but what are the
causes of conflict.
Peace takes time. The process of making peace takes a lot of dialog ... it takes
months rather then days or even weeks. At the end of the process a peace that
reflected the values of the community can be established and a balance of power
and influence that reflects the wishes of the communities that make up the
country. The area authorities, the community leaders as well as the people in
government, need time to build a framework for peace that is workable.
Keeping the peace
Long term peace is only achieved when the outcome of negotiations is a fair
outcome, and especially important that they look fair in the urban streets and in
rural markets.
A peace oriented program enhances the peace by making development
resources available on an equitable basis to all the communities and not just
selected priority communities.
There is a need to understand and respect community traditions, and
understand how the people of the area live together. Development and peace
are facilitated by respect for these matters.
The problem of inequity
Inequitable distribution of wealth and the opportunity to get wealth contributes
to tension. This is often aggravated by the incompatibility of centralized
government with clan-centric governance. The centralized model of government
is practiced in a variety of forms in Washington, London, Paris, Moscow as well
as Baghdad.
It takes time to work out something that is fair, and it gets complicated. The
Washington model includes the concept of town meetings and the idea of
“States’ rights” and the idea that almost all the laws are State law, and not
Federal Law. It took twelve years to go from US independence to the US
constitution and generations longer to add several key amendments.
The British still have not written their constitution, though they have a
framework of law that goes back centuries and indeed integrates the basic
fundamentals from Roman Law. The tradition of clan law goes back a long way
too. There is little written about traditional clan law, but in spite of this, the rules
are clear and well known to everyone in the community. Clans want their rights
respected, and in turn, respects the rights of other clans. This is very similar to
John Stuart Mill’s concept of liberty. When the rules are not respected, there is a
penalty, and at the limit, there is war.
Poor Transparency and Accountability
Lots of talk ... not much walk
The lack of transparency and the lack of accountability is one of the great
shortcomings of modern governance. In the last two decades there has been a
great deal of talk about transparency and its importance, but very little action to
make transparency the norm rather than the exception.
Instead of reasonable transparency that would allow an interested public to be
able to understand how things are being done and what is being accomplished,
there is instead a growing amount of selective information ... arguable pure spin
and misinformation ... that serves the interest of the people of the organization
and not mush the interests of the public. This “public relations” driven
transparency is not at all what is needed.
In Iraq, the fund flows associated with the oil industry and reconstruction are
huge, and it is absolutely imperative that there is a high degree of transparency
so that the public can be informed about the use of these resources. Because of
the vast wealth flows that are presently taking place, senior people are playing
for high stakes, and when there are big stakes, it is “hard ball” and not smart to
get in the way.
Accountability
The issue of accountability is also problematic. There is strong accountability in
the corporate world where failure to live up to profit performance expectations
has quick consequences. In a political structure loyalty more than performance
has a higher value ... and at the limit, there are many who are involved in
governance structures who have loyalty and are held to account for nothing.
More generally, it would be valuable if there is an expectation that there should
be an accountability to the public. The public should expect that resources are
being used in ways that are effective and appropriate.
The US General Accountability Office
The US General Accountability Office (GAO) is a watchdog agency in the US
Government structure, and there are other oversight agencies that have been
charged with looking into the accounting and performance issues in connection
with US fund flows to Iraq ... but nothing much of substance seems to have been
produced. There is a lot wrong about this, and someday there should be an
accounting about this. From what appears in the press it is multiple $ billions
that are unaccounted for.
A Lot More Issues in Alphabetical Order
Administrative capacity
Administration capacity is often identified as an important issue. My own
experience is that administration is often a lot better than an outsider can ever
appreciate, in large part because of the barriers of language and culture. I
usually work in English ... reading, writing and talking in English ... it is my
mother tongue. Sometimes I work in French ... a language I learned at school ...
and improved over the years when doing assignments in Francophone
countries. Sometimes I am stuck with only being able to read numbers and
having no idea what the descriptions mean ... and sometimes I cannot even use
the numbers without translating them to the form I am used to.
A clerical officer in the government of Iraq may be perfectly competent in his
own language ... but most expatriates are not going to have much appreciation
for his/her work simply because of the language and culture barrier. This is not
administrative weakness ... it is a weakness of the expatriate. I would estimate
that perhaps as much as 90% of all the consultancy that has ever been delivered
to strengthen administrative capacity has been wasted simply because it never
got communicated to those at the bottom of the pyramid where it would have
been most useful.
Allocation of resources inefficient
The resources that have been available for development have not always been
used in the most efficient ways to get the most of socio-economic development.
In an emergency when lives are in danger it is appropriate to do almost
anything and everything to rescue people and save lives. But the rescue stage
only lasts hours, or at most a day or two. After that emergency rescue changes to
become emergency assistance, rehabilitation and rebuilding ... and in these
stages it is appropriate to have some level of planning, accounting and
accountability.
What seems to have happened in Iraq is that many billions of dollars were
disbursed as if it were a rescue ... when in fact it was rebuilding, and there
should have been excellence in the accounting and accountability. Instead, it
appears that money was distributed without much attention at all to the
accounting and accountability ... a tragic and foolish behavior.
Border control
Once upon a time travel was difficult, and border crossings were relatively easy.
Now travel is easy and crossing of borders at approved checkpoints is difficult ...
the paperwork, passports, visas, etc. is now difficult to negotiate.
With a lot of economic advantage arising because of economic disruption caused
by borders, there is almost a sub-economy associated with facilitating border
crossing, whether it is the physical crossing of the border, or getting the
paperwork organized.
The control of borders is an issue ... with some people thinking that crossing
should be very tightly controlled, and others arguing for much easier movement
of people, goods and services around the world. It is an issue ... it should be on
the agenda.
Capacity for development
Development capacity is not limited so much because people cannot do
development and do not wish development, but because the modalities for
delivering development assistance are complex and difficult to negotiate.
The technical capacity of the country is also often cited as a constraint on
development. Again, it is now possible more and more to find very competent
technical people in the private sector of the country while the government
offices do not have the appropriate technical staff and capacity.
Absorptive capacity is also cited as a development constraint. If the scale of the
activity is wrong for the area, this is to be expected, but when the scale is right,
then this is less of an issue. In a multi-sector development environment the
problem of absorptive capacity diminishes.
Communications ... Internet infrastructure
Communications is a key priority, but the telecommunications infrastructure is a
constraint though somewhat improved more open than in the Saddam Hussein
era. It still has a long way to go. The development of a strong communications
sector is very important. Without a strong communications infrastructure there
will be limited access to the Internet and the possibilities of the 21st century
global knowledge economy.
Corruption
The role of corruption in distorting the decisions of government and all activities
in the economy should not be underestimated. There are many forms of
corruption. In some forms money is simply diverted to inappropriate purposes,
in other situations there are kickbacks and decisions made that are not in the
best interest of the public. Corruption can be quite petty, or it can be on a grand
scale. All corruption is a problem and a challenge, but grand corruption is
debilitating for people at the bottom of the pyramid.
Development resources insufficient
In Iraq there are vast resource flows both from locally generated oil revenues
and from the international community for security and rebuilding. Substantial
resources have been disbursed, but have been delivered in the form of military
activities and mainly very large scale contracts. Many of the major contracts that
have been funded do not appear to have done much relative to the amount of
money disbursed and relative to what would appear to have been important
local priorities. More than anything else, it seems that there has been funding for
profiteering rather than funding for socio-economic progress.
Donor procedures
There are many donors, some of them very important, and many of lesser
importance ... but all of them have their own procedures and ways of processing
proposals for relief or development assistance.
From the beneficiary country's perspective, donor procedures seem very
complex and it is not easy at all to figure out what is important and what is not.
A single beneficiary country has to follow the procedures of each and every one
of the donors in order to get assistance, and this represents a lot of effort.
Of course, a donor is best off when it has a set of procedures that it applies
uniformly in every country in the world ... and that is what all the donors have
done.
It would not take a lot to figure out how to have a uniform core set of relief and
development assistance proposal forms ... but that is too much like common
sense for the experts of the relief and development community to embrace.
Durable solutions ... sustainability
The socio-economic problems are huge, but the problems can be mitigated, if not
entirely solved with good policy and international financial support. Progress
can be made if the right policies are pursued and a sufficient amount of
resources are available for the implementation of changes that need to be made.
More than anything durable solutions are ones where there are low costs and
substantial values that are appreciated by the community. To the extent that
there is value, a community can support the initiative simply because the goods
or services are worth buying.
Economic distortion
Rarely discussed, but economic distortion diminishes socio-economic progress
and is a common result of external programs for “development”. It also appears
in economies where there are large fund flows accruing to government
leadership and powerful parts of society, and rather little is allocated to the
public at large ... especially common in oil rich economies.
Economic security
The understanding of economic security is different at the different level of
society. It is one thing for the family, another thing for the State. It is good for
the family to be the first source of economic security, and then the extended
family and the community. In a rich country, the State can be a source of
economic security for ordinary people, but not so in a poor country, and then it
is the international community that becomes the security net of last resort.
There are all sorts of ways that families can have economic security, For example
in the nomadic pastoral livestock economy, economic security is mainly derived
from the livestock herds. In a modest drought food security is assured by the
animals, but in a severe drought crisis the animals die and family level economic
security is lost. At this point the State and the international community have t
provide the security net of last resort.
Emergency interventions
Any situation where emergency intervention have become the norm, it is a
failed situation. Emergency interventions are economically inefficient and not a
good way of building sustainable economic development. Military deployment
is, in my view, an emergency activity, and it is not surprising to me to see
soldiers being rather unsuccessful at the work of building sustainable economic
development.
Employment ... jobs
Employment in the formal sector is one of the best ways of making socioeconomic progress successful. Salaries and wages help people to pay bills ... and
this money is a critical part of the economic dynamic that is needed to keep a
modern monetary economy thriving.
Work in the public sector is a substantial part of the employment pool ... but it is
best when there is significant employment in both the public and the private
sectors.
Empowerment
The relief and development sector talks a a lot about empowerment, but this talk
is not much about productive work that generates income and tangible socioeconomic progress in the local community. Rather it is to do with political and
organizational leadership which does not quickly or easily translate into food for
the family. A good way to achieve economic empowerment is by creating
productive jobs and having people go to work and earn wages.
Enabling environment
A favorable enabling environment for development and a favorable policy
framework for investment are required for a successful economy that will attract
investment ... but more than anything else it is profit potential and the ability to
profit and keep the rewards that attracts investors. Iraq has the potential to be a
very successful economy, and at some level it does not need to attract outside
investors ... rather it needs to attract leadership both internally and
internationally to embrace a program that will make Iraq peaceful internally,
and a catalyst for peace internationally.
Environment
The environment is frequently ignored in order to facilitate economic progress.
Environmental issues should be made a part of planning, especially at the
community level, and steps taken to encouraged environmental improvement as
an integral part of development.
Food security
The food security situation in Iraq should be easy to handle ... Iraq has adequate
fund flows to finance stocks and the storage facilities needed, and the potential
for sustainable employment is significant. But food security will be an issue in
Iraq if the matter is ignored.
Funding ... allocation of resources
Funding needs to be allocated to the sorts of activities that are capable of
delivering good results. There has not been a shortage of funding in Iraq, but it
appears that there has been a huge problem with the way the funding has been
used.
Rather little information is available easily concerning the way in which the
fund flows in Iraq have been used. Though it is reported that there is in excess of
$300 billion that has been authorized for Iraq and perhaps another $100 billion
arising from oil revenues from Iraq ... a total of some $400 billion ... and almost
nothing in the way of accounting to the public for these moneys.
It is likely that a large portion of the funding has flowed into organizations that
have powerful friends in the local and the international community ... and in the
end, this has become a more important aspect of decision making than
performance and what would be good for the public.
Governance
Governance is important ... but it is only one part of a big canvas. For many
years there has been a disconnect between much of the activities of governance,
and the people who have to go about their daily lives with very little that is
positive coming from the top of the pyramid and all sorts of distress caused by
lack of governance and agents of governance that use their position in all sorts
of inappropriate ways.
Human resources
Human resource capacity is a constraint on development, but more in terms of
the administration and structure of development than in the actual capacity of
people to do productive work. There are many with education and training who
are underemployed, and even where literacy is low as in some of the remote
rural areas, there is a willingness to work, and not much opportunity.
Landmines and unexploded ordnance
Landmines and unexploded ordnance are a common problem in the aftermath
of war, and significantly deter development. There are many places in Iraq
where mines have been laid and not fully retrieved. Similarly there is a lot of
UXO material around. It is not an issue that has been much in the news, but it
has the potential to be a hazard for years to come.
Lawlessness ... organized criminality
The vast majority of the population go about their lives in a reasonable manner,
but a few embrace lawlessness as a way to advance an agenda. In some cases the
agenda ought to be addressed ... but lawlessness and organized criminality are
not ways that are usually appropriate. The fact of lawlessness and organized
criminality should not be dismissed out of hand ... legitimate gripes should be
understood and addressed ... preferably within a framework of civil dialog and
not at the muzzle of a gun.
Livestock
Livestock is very important in the rural economy of Iraq. The livestock industry
has many different forms from very intensive systems to the ancient nomadic
pastoral lifestyle that has changed little over thousands of years.
Efficiency of the Pastoral Livestock Economy
I have worked a number of times with pastoral livestock economies ... and my
simple conclusion has been that it was amazing how life could be sustained so
successfully with so little of resources ... in other words, how efficient the economy
was.
I try to remind myself of this when I am reading about the wealth of the “north” ...
which is really built on top of a vast current consumption of the accumulated wealth
of the planet from the beginning of time.
Media ... misinformation and spin
The radio and television media are a powerful force. Little of the Arabic
language media is understood by non-Arabic speakers, and translation is prone
to mistake. The English language media is not much appreciated in Iraq because
of the perception that it is mainly propaganda. The stage is set for a lot of
misinformation in all directions.
The problem of misinformation manifests itself in many ways. The media
contributes to misinformation simply by having to communicate complex stories
in tiny bits ... impossible to do. The media does good in-depth stories, but does
perhaps 1% of what needs to be done. The choice of the 1% contributes to the
misinforming of the public.
And on top of the practical problems of time the media has to contend with spin,
where stories are purposely biased to a point of view. Spin in politics is a
powerful and dangerous tool ... it is the equivalent of propaganda that is so
vilified because of its association with the Nazi regime in Europe and more
broadly through the world's totalitarian regimes. Spin is a major act of
misinformation.
Metrics are weak ... inadequate measures
The metrics of socio-economic performance are very weak. There is
measurement related to the performance of sports stars, and the revenues of
films at the box office, and the prices of stocks on the stock exchanges ... but
information about socio-economic performance is virtually non existent. The
measures that are needed are just not being done, and it would seem that the
leadership of the political community and the relief and development sector are
very happy to have it this way.
Money ...
Money is both a source of a lot of evil, and is also a resource that can be used for
amazing good. Plans should ensure that money is used for good purposes, and
there should be follow up to see to it that money gets to where it is doing good.
Money feeds greed and corruption and all sorts of negative behavior, but it also
serves to enable very good things to be done. Money is a challenge.
Natural resources
The most valuable natural resource in Iraq is petroleum ... oil and gas. This is
both a wonderful resource and a terrible catalyst for the escalation of tension
into dangerous conflict. It is estimated that the government of Iraq will earn
some $40 billion from oil in 2007, not an inconsequential amount. The reserves
are thought to be as much as the reserves of Saudi Arabia.
Iraq also has water with two major rivers flowing through the country ... the
Tigris and the Euphrates.
There are likely to be many other minerals in the country, but these are not on
the immediate agenda as long as oil dominates the economy.
Oil ...
Oil is an amazingly valuable resource, but also a problem resource. The
distortion that results from oil exploitation and oil wealth is a destabilizing
influence, and great care is needed to get a balance right between all the
stakeholders. This has to be a part of any dialog about planning and peace and
security ... and the fund flows associated with oil should be a lot more
transparent than has been the norm in the past.
Policy framework
The policy framework in Iraq needs to evolve in ways that satisfy all segments
of the population. Attempts to impose a policy framework from the outside and
on a rapid timetable are unlikely to be successful, rather there needs to be
months of dialog and a sharing of ideas amongst all the myriad of groups that
make up the society in Iraq.
Population demographics
Depending on your point of view the demographics of Iraq are either good or
bad. With a large proportion of young people, I would argue that there is a lot of
developing human potential and that this should be a good thing ... but it is also
possible to argue that an emerging population of young adults can easily end up
with society being very violent and out of control.
Population are people, and people have all sorts of interests, prejudices, beliefs
and hopes. Simple demographic statistics are not a good basis for policy
formulation and decision making ... while more detailed understanding of the
demographics of Iraq can help enormously in helping the country move
forward.
Private sector resources
There are huge financial resources in Iraq, and the control of these resources is a
key factor in the violence and the unwillingness of various factions to relinquish
control ... to anyone. While it is common knowledge that Saddam Husein and
his family and friends were enormous beneficiaries of Iraq's oil wealth ... the
extent of wealth distribution to friends is less clear. It was probably very
extensive and sufficient to fund substantial efforts to regain control of the State
apparatus and the control of oil revenues.
The private sector ought to be the driver of the economy ... but the profits of the
private sector should go towards building a national economy and not merely
get diverted to activities that result in a failure of governance and an
opportunity to gain an unseemly control of the fund flows from the oil sector.
The private sector should have great opportunity, but to the extent it is
impacting the national economy, there should be an accountability to the public.
Public administration
See Administrative capacity
Public finance ... public sector resources
The availability of public finance ought to be a solution to many problems that
must usually be faced in the building of a national economy. Thanks to revenues
from oil, the revenue base of the Iraq state is on a very favorable footing. More
than anything else, there should be adequate public accounting so that there is
effective use of the State's resources.
Public sector resources ought to be more than adequate. The revenues from the
oil and gas sector should be sufficient for all the needs of the public sector and
with substantial surplus that can be used for a future generation fund and long
term national investment.
Rangeland management
Livestock is a primary economic driver and the major source of income in the
rural areas. The success of the livestock sector is linked closely with the way in
which the rangeland performs. Rangeland management is not just about the
management of water resources, but goes way beyond this. Though shortage of
water is one cause of livestock (and human) mortality, lack of fodder for the
livestock also has a critical role. There is a natural dynamic that links many
different aspects rangeland management which needs to be well understood by
policy makers.
Religion
Religion has potential to be a solution to conflict, but it is also used in terrible
ways to foment anger and violence that really has no place within the teachings
of any religion. Dialog between people of different faiths and different sects
within a faith are of great importance, and good people in all faiths seem to want
this a lot more than the violence that has become all too common in modern
times ... and has been all too common in most of history as well. Modern
communications should make it easier to build bridges between people of
different faiths ... but modern technology also makes it possible for bad things to
travel around the world at the speed of light as well.
Remittances
Individual families in Iraq have benefited from flow of remittances from various
places into Iraq. Remittances have been a significant component of the income
reaching individuals and families, even while parts of the local economy were
closed down.
Sectarian tension
Sectarian tension is common ... but sectarian tension that escalates into terrible
violence usually has more to it than mere sectarianism. It is healthy to have
differences, but it is plain wrong for these difference to be an excuse for violence
and terror. Usually there is something else going on, and it is more than likely to
be something associated with power and money, and a battle over who is going
to have control of these.
Security
Development ... rebuilding ... is stopped dead in its tracks if the security
situation is unsatisfactory. The lack of security has made area economies fail in
many places. The part played by insecurity in constraining development is well
known, but rarely are the steps taken to improve the security situation before
the damage is done. When violence gets out of hand, it is difficult to stop ... but
if it is not stopped the results are catastrophic.
Sustainability
Sustainability should not be difficult in Iraq ... there is an underlying strong
revenue source at the national level from oil, and using some of these fund flows
to support a variety of community programs should set the stage for a high
performing economy. Violence, however, can end up making sustainability a
mirage. Sustainability is much more easily achieved when the private sector is
the development agent rather than government, and loans are used for
financing rather than grants.
Systems are dysfunctional
The progress of development is not constrained by people, but by systems and
processes that are way outside the control of good people. The progress of
development is constrained by systems and processes, and the situation is then
made even worse by the complexity of trying to make different bad systems
work together. Good people and good development are held to ransom by
systems and processes that have to make development inefficient.
Trade
The commercial private entrepot trade is a big economic driver in Iraq, as it is
throughout the world. People in the Middle East are traders from ancient times,
and the “souk” is a big part of any community. The is a market economy at its
best, and one of the more efficient parts of the economy in the region. Sadly, the
market is also ignored as an economic driver in most planning for economic
development, just as the community is also ignored.
Transport
The transport infrastructure is an essential for the development of the area
economy. Inefficient physical infrastructure pushes up the cost of transport, and
makes it more difficult to operate a successful and profitable business. Roads
need to be the least costly yet capable of doing the job that is needed.
Value destruction
The issue of value destruction needs to be put into the center of economic
analysis and planning. So much of what is done in modern society is resulting in
massive value destruction rather than being used in ways that build value and
benefit society. This is happening in a lot of high technology industries where
value is being concentrated simply for the short term benefit of stockholders, the
oil industry where the major actors are gaining wealth while society is losing
wealth, and in the relief and development sector where money is doing rather
little of durable value.
Water
Water has a critical role in the economy. There are two rivers that are sources of
water, but areas distant from the rivers are less well supplied with water. The
management of water needs to be high on the planning agenda and every
community should be helped to have a coherent water strategy. The
management of water investments can result in substantial economic value
enhancement for the area.
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