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Date: 2024-09-19 Page is: DBtxt001.php L0700-PP-EC-Economic-Trends

ECONOMIC TRENDS
Human Capital / Money / Profit / GDP / Capital Markets / Inflation


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Human Capital / Money / Profit / GDP / Capital Markets / Inflation

THE ECONOMY OF THE USA
The economic trends are clear ... but making better progress is not so obvious
USA ... OVERVIEW
TPB commentary: The economy os the United States achieved a dominant global position during the Second World War. The 'war effort' was extremely profitable for the American private sector and very positive for the country's balance of payments and the national financial resserves. In the 40s, 50s and 60s the US was an order of magnitude 'richer' than any other country in the world. Importantly, during this period there was a reasonable sharing of the benefits of wealth between the ownership class and the working class which was transformed into a 'middle class' in terms of material ownership. I came to the USA in 1967 and at that time was able to earn as much working for a month in the USA as I could earn working for a year in Europe.
But all of this started to change in the 1970s. The US economy experienced a boom in the late 1960s ... referred to at the time as the 'GoGo Years' ... and then had a substantial set back in the early 1970s associated in large part with the normal 'business cycle'. But then in 1973 the oil exporting countries established the OPEC cartel and the price of crude oil increased instantly from $3.50 a barrel to $13.50 a barrel. This changed everything and ended the unchallenged dominance of the United States as the only major economic player in the world. But worse, the United States turned out to be surprisingly inefficient because it was used to easy access to low cost power and was profligate in its use. This applied to US buildings as well as to US industrial processes, like, for ecample cement. During the 1970s the shorthand description of the economic condition was 'stagflation' because the economy was in decline while there was massive price inflation. My interpretation of the economic condition at the time was that the US was experiencing cost push inflation, something significantly different from demand pull inflation. In a cost push environment, the only way to increase profits is to increase prices ... and this was happening in every sector of the US economy. When Ronald Reagan won the US Presidency he enbraced a somewhat conventional GOP platform that talked about less government, less regulation, less taxes and more military that would result in more jobs, more growth, more tax revenue and prosperity. Some economists at teh time referred to this as being Reagan's 'Voodoo economics' and his budget director Stockman was fired when he concluded that the Reagan economic policies would substantially increase US government debt.

USA ... Changes in Payroll Jobs - 2008 to 2016
When President Obama took office in January 2009, the US economy was losing jobs at the rate of around 800 thousand a month.
6 months into Obama's administrtation the job situation started to improve and for the final 7 years of his administration there was positive employment growth every month ... the longest run of positive job growth in US history.

USA ... Industrial Production

USA ... Housing Starts

USA ... Retail Sales

USA ... Hotel Occupency Rates by month ... recent years 2007 to 2016
2015 and 2016 at the end of the Obama years are significantly higher than in 2007 at the end of the Bush years.

USA ... Weekly unemployment claims for period 1970 to 2018
This is a graph of the 4 week moving average for the January period each year from 1970 to 1918.
There have been six periods when this indicator peaked:
... The oil shock of the early 1970s which caused industrial stress in 1974 and 1975
... The end of the Carter administration in 1980
... The beginning of Reagan's trickle down economics in 1982 and 1983
... Economic malaise at the end of the Reagan era and need for President Bush (41) to tighten the economic situation
... A post Clinton recession in the early Bush (42) era peaking in 2002
... A massive peak in 2008 and 2009 following the Bush era financial crisis

USA ... Consumer Sentiment ... from 1978 to 2016
The oil shock in the 1970s changed everything and eliminated one of the big low cost advantages of cheap energy available to US inustrial ooperations.
President Reagan changed the perception of America's future, and consumer sentiment improved.
In the end President George Bush (41) had to face reality of the underlying weakness of the Reagan economic strategy and consumer sentiment dropped. He lost the election, but had set the stage for better economic performance during President Clinton's administration.
In the 1990s during President Clinton's administration, consumer sentiment was high ... but dropped during President Bush's administration as government spending on international military intervention soared and massive abuses in the financial sector came to light.
By the time Present Obama took office, consumer sentiment was at a very low level improved very well during his administration even though he obtained zero assistance for the Republicans in Congress to manage anything!
2015 and 2016 at the end of the Obama years are significantly higher than in 2007 at the end of the Bush years.

The following material incorporated from Economic Performance


Country Level Economic Data ... Countries by GDP (PPP)
List by the International Monetary Fund (2010)[1] Gross Domestic Product is a measure of how much is being consumed, more than anything about value
Open file 0416
US Economy remains weak
January 2012 ... Nouriel Roubini ... Despite favourable macroeconomic indicators, US economic growth will remain weak and below trend throughout 2012.
Open file 2108
Occupy and the 1%
Mother Jones Charts: Who Are the 1 Percent?
Open file 1812
Krugman on inequality in 1996
Mother Jones ... The Spiral of Inequality by Paul Krugman ... and then Jack and Jude
Open file 962
Society and Economy
On economic inequality
TED VIDEO Richard Wilkinson: How economic inequality harms societies
Open file 987
Human Exploitation
Modern slavery
Kevin Bales: How to combat modern slavery
Open file 1136
Country ... USA
Economy ... GALLUP ... Satisfaction With Direction of U.S. Continues to Languish
Open file 8806

USA ... Economic Performance ... Jobs ... Employment
U.S. Labor Force: Where Have All the Workers Gone?
https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2014/08/07/us-labor-force-where-have-all-the-workers-gone/#more-7944
Open file 11834 Open external link
USA-LABOR-FORCE-PARTICIPATION-DYNAMICS-REVERSIBLE-OR-NOT-IMF
'www.truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economic-Performance/USA-LABOR-FORCE-PARTICIPATION-DYNAMICS-REVERSIBLE-OR-NOT-IMF.pdf'
Open PDF ... USA-LABOR-FORCE-PARTICIPATION-DYNAMICS-REVERSIBLE-OR-NOT-IMF


The following material from Economics



Nouriel Roubini
'Black swan' events and the global economy
AJE Opinion ... Nouriel Roubini ... Though optimists argue that the global economic slump will resolve itself, other economists say the causes are chronic.
Open file 0103

Robert Skidelsky
Life after capitalism
Opinion ... Robert Skidelsky ... If capitalism means that money always talks, does the end of capitalism finish our urge to listen to it?
Open file 0120

Ted Rall
The emperor has no economy
Opinion ... Ted Rall ... Corporate profits are up, consumer income is down, and Orwellian talking points are soaring.
Open file 0121

Robert Shiller
Debt and delusion
Opinion ... Robert Shiller ... Debt-to-GDP ratios should be less of a concern than our inability to see these indicators as artificial and irrelevant.
Open file 0142
What exactly is the US debt ceiling?
AJE Americas ... With August 2 deadline day approaching, a severe shock to the world economy is feared if the US runs out of cash.
Open file 0143
Why is there deadlock over the US debt limit?
AJE News Americas ... The White House and congress are in last-minute talks on how - or whether - to raise the US debt ceiling.
Open file 0148

Mohamed A El-Erian
Pity the world's financial policymakers
AJE Opinion ... Mohamed A El-Erian ... Solving the current economic malaise involves swapping short-term pain for long-term gain, a tradeoff politicians fear.
Open file 0153
The Issue of GDP
The Steady State Economy ... CASSE ... Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy
Open file 0164

Mohamed A El-Erian
Crash club: when sputtering economies collide
AJE Opinion ... Mike Davis ... If current trends continue, China, the European Union, and the US are headed towards a synchronised global depression.
Open file 0165
The Debt Ceiling Debate
The Debt Ceiling Debate ... Senator Sanders' Statement on Senate Debt Vote
Open file 0178

Richard Wolff
Getting economic history right
Richard Wolff ... US Economic Performance ... The plain fact is that corporate profits are the only area of the US economy to recover since 2009. Any other claim is a lie
Open file 0179
US Wealth Concentrated in the Top 1%
AJE Fault Lines ... With 1% of Americans controlling 40% of the country's wealth, we examine the gap between the rich and the rest.
Open file 0180
The future of economic growth
AJE Opinion ... Dani Rodrik ... As major economies face hardships, will developing countries be able to step up and carry the global economy?
Open file 0181

Joseph E Stiglitz
A contagion of bad ideas
AJE Opinion ... Joseph E Stiglitz ... Financial distress isn't the only thing that moves easily across borders - so do misguided economic policies.
Open file 0199
How to Fix Economy of USA
Mary Meeker of Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Biers talks about the US government budget.
Open file 0203

Yu Yongding
China's inflation muddle
AJE Opinion ... Yu Yongding ... Economic hardships face China in the near future, but their past record of success seems to espouse promising results.
Open file 0215

David Stockman
Banks, budgets and economic policy
David Stockman Trashes Reaganomics, Bush Tax Cuts, And Hank 'Incompetent, Reckless' Paulson
Open file 0222

William Rees
Disconnect Between Economics and Ecology
VIDEO The Dangerous Disconnect Between Economics and Ecology ... An interview with William Rees by Thomas A Bernes, INET/CIGI
Open file 0242

Dani Rodrik
The manufacturing imperative
AJE Opinion ... Dani Rodrik ... Despite the rise of service based economies, manufacturing remains an integral part of success.
Open file 0267

Nouriel Roubini ... 2008 Economic Crisis
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Nouriel Roubini: The Financial Crisis - 1/5
Open file 0306
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Nouriel Roubini: The Financial Crisis - 2/5
Open file 0307
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Nouriel Roubini: The Financial Crisis - 3/5
Open file 0308
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Nouriel Roubini: The Financial Crisis - 4/5
Open file 0309
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Nouriel Roubini: The Financial Crisis - 5/5
Open file 0310
Is capitalism doomed?
AJE Opinion ... Nouriel Roubini ... The recent credit rating downgrade and Eurozone debt crises are slowly showing signs of The Great Depression 2.0.
Open file 0342

Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -1/6
Open file 0311
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -2/6
Open file 0312
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -3/6
Open file 0313
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -4/6
Open file 0314
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -5/6
Open file 0315
2008 Economic Crisis
VIDEO ... Niall Ferguson: The Financial Crisis -6/6
Open file 0316

Joseph Stiglitz ... Economic Policy
Aggregate demand and monetary policy
VIDEO ... A short talk by Joseph Stiglitz on America's Economic Meltdown
Open file 0332

Naomi Klein ... Economic Policy
Disaster Capitalism
VIDEO Naomi Klein: Disaster Capitalism
Open file 0333
Milton Friedman debates Naomi Klein
Milton Friedman taking issue with Naomi Klein, author of The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism.
Open file 0334
Shock Therapy
Shock Therapy ... Naomia Klein ... VIDEO Shock Therapy ... Naomia Klein
Open file 0290

Economic Retrospective
VIDEO 2012 ... The next Great Depression -- Obama's Legacy will be the Collapse of America ... an alternative view of the US economy in 2010 using ideas from the Great Depression of the 1930s
TPB note 170907 : The video associated with this file has been deleted (by YouTube ??)for some reason. There are earlier TPB notes in this file that talk about the growing importance of misinformation in the prevailing political dialog and how dangerous this is.
Open file 0345
Jon Stewart: Economics
Comedy Central’s The Daily Show, broadcast ... Jon Stewart: On Warren Buffett, socialism and class warfare
Open file 0346
Jon Stewart: Economics
Comedy Central’s The Daily Show, broadcast ... Jon Stewart: How the poor should solve the economic crisis
Open file 0347
The economy is a 'machine', not a 'body'
AJE Opinion ... Paul Rosenberg ... The unseen power of metaphors in guiding how we think could be key to escaping from a prolonged economic crisis.
Open file 0368
The price of 9/11
Opinion ... Joseph E Stiglitz ... Ten years after 9/11, al-Qaeda has been greatly weakened; but the price paid by the US was enormous, and unnecessary.
Open file 0419
The outsourcing bogeyman
Opinion ... Jagdish Bhaghwati ... Outsourcing benefits all countries by focusing on competitive advantage, but many politicians do not understand this.
Open file 0423
Economic stimulus
Rachel Maddow on economic stimulus ... A collection of historic facts that show economic stimulus works
Open file 0493
Youth employment
Gwyn Morgan Troy Media Alberta ... Youth unemployment the most dangerous force in the world
Open file 0514
Is inflation the answer?
AJE Opinion ... Raghuram Rajan ... Using inflation as a tool to restore economic health in the US is a risky strategy - and may just make matters worse.
Open file 0519
Outlook August 2011
VIDEO ... Max Keiser- WW3 is on as Wall St. banks plunder economy.
Open file 0522
Who can we trust to solve the debt crisis?
AJE Opinion ... Danny Schechter ... The world's public is realising that their leaders have no idea what to do about an increasingly global economic crisis.
Open file 0542
Fake Economy
Kevin Drum ... Why Fake Savings Are As Good as Real Savings
Open file 0549
Global Economy
IMF Annual Meeting has focus on Europe ... IMF warns global economic slowdown entering ‘dangerous new phase’ ... reported by Howard Schneider,
Open file 0550
Prominent Economists
Erik Nielson ... Chief economist at Unicredit in London. Danish with experience at IMF, World Bank and Goldman Sachs
Open file 0555
The Eurozone's Three Fatal Flaws
Charles Hugh Smith makes the case that the basic structure of the Eurozone is fatally flawed.
Open file 0558
Global Economy
AJE Business ... Warning about the US economy from the Federal Reserve sends world stocks plummeting.
Open file 0570
How to prevent a depression
AJE Opinion ... Nouriel Roubini ... The most viable option to restore competitiveness and growth is for peripheral countries to exit the eurozone.
Open file 0590
Liberating nations from public debt
Opinion ... Mohamed Rabie ... An alternative solution to the financial crisis is to create a single global currency to manage debt requirements.
Open file 0598
This crisis requires some imagination
AJE Opinion ... Dani Rodrik ... Europe is getting nowhere trying the same failed ideas to solve the financial crisis: it's time to think outside the box.
Open file 0599
The great debt scare
AJE Opinion ... Robert Shiller ... The drop in economic confidence was sharper in July 2011 than it was in 2008, due to fears of a US debt default.
Open file 0610
Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the 2008 Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Open file 0614
Steady State Economy
Comment stream from essay by Herman Daly on the 2008 Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Open file 0615
America needs a new New Deal
AJE Opinion ... Paul Rosenberg ... Since Roosevelt's era, infrastructure, manufacturing and the viability of our ecosystem have declined dramatically.
Open file 0619
US Monetary Economy
By Adam Belz, USA TODAY ... Kansas City Fed chief Thomas Hoenig sounds alarm
Open file 0630
Is the world too big to fail?
AJE Opinion ... Noam Chomsky explains how the global order of power has been created and describes the mechanisms behind its continuity.
Open file 0633
People ... Media
Bill Moyers
December 3, 2011 Bill Moyers Essay: Plutocracy and Democracy Don’t Mix ... as fresh as ever and very very suited to the times
Open file 1594
Society and Economy
Economics
Economics Of Abundance Getting Some Well Deserved Attention
Open file 1665
Society and Economics
Economics
Step One To Embracing A Lack Of Scarcity: Recognize What Market You're Really In
Open file 1666
Policy, Society and Economics
Jeffrey Sachs
Jeffrey Sachs: 'That's not a free market, that's a game'
Open file 1676
Economics, Society and Economy
Most economic indicators show US deterioration since 1980
From Dave Johnson ... Reagan Revolution Home To Roost -- In Charts
Open file 1938
More predictions for 2012
John Terrett: 2012 ... What's in store for the global economy?
Open file 1954
Economics, Society and Economy
Good times down Latin America's way
The outlook for Latin America remains positive in 2012 - despite reduced Chinese and Indian demand for raw materials.
Open file 1955
Incentives
Dean Baker ... Rents are too high: The Apple edition ... Many economists wonder whether society could get the same effort from entrepreneurs if financial rewards were decreased.
Open file 2389
Economic Theory
Rey Ty ... It is not only Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations that matters, but also the background and context described in his Theory of Moral Sentiment
Open file 2390
Economic Theory
Economic Theorists of history ... Adam Smith, Karl Marx, Max Weber, John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman
Open file 2391
What makes the economy dysfunctional
Stephan Richter ... Is the source of America's prosperity its much-maligned bureaucracy? ... Bureaucracy as a Root of American Prosperity
Open file 2470
Capitalism
How it is working ... Branko Milanovic explores the reasons why ... Adam Smiths of Capital, Friedrich Lists of Labor
Open file 2472
The dynamic of bubbles
Robert Shiller ... Bubbles without markets ... The recent worldwide financial crisis pales in comparison with earlier 'bubbles' promoted by totalitarian regimes.
Open file 2908
The failure of Republican economics
Paul Rosenberg ... Those clinging to Bush-era ideologies and illusions show they simply do not understand economics.
Open file 2965
Analysis of 2007/2008 financial crisis
Paul Rosenberg ... Prosperity economics: Answering America's top unasked questions The whole narrative of the economic crisis facing America has been framed wrong since the beginning.
Open file 3029
Analysis of 2007/2008 financial crisis
Paul Rosenberg ... Prosperity economics: Answering America's top unasked questions The whole narrative of the economic crisis facing America has been framed wrong since the beginning.
Open file 3219
How the US economy works
Goutham Bhadri ... It's the entrepreneurs, stupid! ... The entrepreneurial spirit that guided every great surge of innovation in America's past is as alive as it's ever been.
Open file 3321
Social Capital Markets
Charles Cameron ... From 2009 ... Who will build a more efficient marketplace? ... This week is Social Capital Markets week!
Open file 3351
Economic Ideas
Fortune ... Colvin and Sloan ... Forget Washington: Here's how we'd fix the economy
Open file 3370
Village economics
Economic dynamics ... A powerpoint presentation prepared by Peter Burgess in 2006 to highlight the mechanics of economic development at the village level
Open file 3382
Dysfunctional Economics
Dean Baker on The wrecking society: Economics today ... The amount of damage being inflicted on countries around the world by bad economic policy is astounding, writes Baker.
Open file 3439
Stuff ... the makings of a 'Wastonomy'
The Stream tackles the subject of 'stuff' and consumerism with a great group of serious activists who are making a difference
Open file 3459
Inequality
Dean Baker ... Inequality: The silly tales economists like to tell ... Some economists don't get paid to know about the economy, but to justify the trickle-up of wealth.
Open file 3515
Plutocracy Rising
Bill Moyers, Chrystia Freeland and Matt Taibbi ... Plutocracy Rising. Bill Moyers in conversation with Chrystia Freeland and Matt Taibbi
Open file 3520
Trade Deficits and Fiat Currencies
Robert Murphy ... Mises Institute ... Trade Deficits and Fiat Currencies
Open file 3521
The limits of GDP
The limits of GDP ... Measuring well-being beyond GDP ... The most successful is the UNDP Human Development Index
Open file 3522
2008 Economic Crisis
Professor Richard Wolff | The New School | Screened March 2010 ... Capitalism Hits the Fan Film Screening and Q&A with
Open file 3546
Systemic Dysfunction
DEMOS Policy Blog ... High Profits, Low Wages, and the Growth of Inequality
Open file 3639
Capitalism
What about Capitalism?, This review by Stergios D. Marangos is from: Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis (Paperback)
Open file 3643
Inequality
Trends ... Inequality ... Liebrary - Does giving the 1% greater rewards benefit everyone? Compare data for Britain and France to see this is not true
Open file 3749
Record Corporate Profits
Economix Blog ... By CATHERINE RAMPELL ... Corporate Profits After Tax doing very well while everyone else is in economic trouble
Open file 3751
The US Fiscal Cliff
Robert Reich ... UNDERSTANDING THE FISCAL CLIFF (VIDEO) ... 8 IDEAS THAT MATTER
Open file 3762
EuroZone Crisis
AJE News Europe ... Global economy 'set for sharp downturn' Eurozone debt crisis 'remains the greatest threat to the world economy at present', the OECD warns.
Open file 3769
Country ... USA 40 Years of Gutting the Economy
Financial Firms Have Been Hollowing Out America for Decades -- Now We're on the Verge of a Debtpocalypse
Open file 3789
All transaction ... No value
Brecht Forum ... Mark Ames ... MILTON FRIEDMAN: FROM CORPORATE SHILL TO NOBEL LAUREATE
Open file 3804
Profits up ... Wages down
Dean Baker ... Profit share hits record high ... If economic debates in the US were focused on reality, the demand gap would be at the centre of the discussion.
Open file 3821

Trade Deficist ... Balance of Payments

Trade Flows
Dave Johnson ... Trade Deficit Dots Connect to Billionaires ... US trade deficit with China just hit a new record: $42.2 billion in October 2012
Open file 3829

Failing Capitalism

Economic Analysis
Inside Story Americas ... Has capitalism proven its durability? ... Richard Wolff and Chris Hedges
Open file 3875
Capitalism
Michel Bauwens ... The $100bn Facebook question: Will capitalism survive 'value abundance'? ... Open-source software, shared innovation and crowd-sourced manufacturing threaten capitalism as we know it.
Open file 3878
Failing Capitalism
Video ... Richard Wolff speaking at the Brecht Forum in December 2012.
Open file 3913

Income Distribution ... Wages and Jobs

Class War
AlterNet / By Thom Hartmann ... There's a Violent World War Going On, with Millions of Casualties -- Oligarchs vs. Everyone Else
Open file 3943
WB-WPS6719-Global-Income-Distribution
A paper by Christoph Lakner and Branko Milanovic
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/WorldBank/WB-WPS6719-Global-Income-Distribution.pdf'
Open PDF ... WB-WPS6719-Global-Income-Distribution
Wages and Jobs
Paul Rosenberg ... Socialist firebrand Adam Smith points the way in struggle for a living wage ... While the US economy as a whole has continued growing over the past 40 years, wages in general have remained stagnant.
Open file 3825
Jobs and Wages
The 25-Hour Work Week ... from Gar Alperovitz's 'America beyond Capitalism.'
Open file 3827
The-Economist-Industries-in-2015
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Economist/The-Economist-Industries-in-2015.pdf'
Open PDF ... The-Economist-Industries-in-2015
Still making it: An analysis of manufacturing labour costs in China ... A report from The Economist Intelligence Unit ... 2014

'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Economist/EIU-China-manufacturing-labor-cost-report-2014.pdf'
Open PDF ... EIU-China-manufacturing-labor-cost-report-2014
Paul-Ekins-UNEP-High-Level-Seminar-Chile-140524
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Paul-Ekins/Paul-Ekins-UNEP-High-Level-Seminar-Chile-140524.pdf'
Open PDF ... Paul-Ekins-UNEP-High-Level-Seminar-Chile-140524

China / India / other Asia

SCHUMPETERIAN PROFITS IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT ... William D. Nordhaus ... 2004
This paper concludes that profits from innovation are quite small and that consumers absorb much of the value derived from innovation. The analysis is based on government statistics and seem to be very different from my own personal experience and the 'unicorn' performance of many tech companies.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/NBER/Nordhaus-Schumpeterian-profits-in-the-Ameican-economy-2004.pdf'
Open PDF ... Nordhaus-Schumpeterian-profits-in-the-Ameican-economy-2004
THE EMERGING MIDDLE CLASS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES by Homi Kharas ... OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE ... January 2010
“The most important development, I believe, of the 21st century will be the rise of Asia. China has already trebled its share of world GDP over the past two decades and India has doubled it. Both these giant economies of Asia are bound to gain a considerable part of their share of world GDP that they had lost during the two centuries of European colonialism. . . . “36. This quote from India’s Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, encapsulates the optimism that continues to dominate economic scenarios for India, China and indeed Asia and the world.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/OECD/OECD_EmegingMiddleClass.pdf'
Open PDF ... OECD_EmegingMiddleClass
Global growth: Can productivity save the day in an aging world? ... by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) ... 2015
MGI states 'GDP has grown exceptionally rapidly over the past 50 years, powered by the twin engines of employment growth and productivity growth. But employment growth is set to slow dramatically, placing the onus on productivity growth to drive the world economy.'
This report is only about the money economy, and ignores completely the existential risks of social and environmental degradation caused by a dysfunctional focus on profit and benefit for owners!
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Demographics/MGI-Global-Growth-Full-Report.pdf'
Open PDF ... MGI-Global-Growth-Full-Report
Economic Commentary ... A Newsletter of First Affirmative Financial Network ... April 2013
Raises question about the correlation between the performance of the stock market and the underlying performance of the economy
Uses the metaphor of two drunks connected by a long rope ... they can't get too far apart, but they don't always go in the same direction!
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/FA-Economic-Commentary-130401.pdf'
Open PDF ... FA-Economic-Commentary-130401
Death-of-a-yuppie-dream
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Death-of-a-yuppie-dream.pdf'
Open PDF ... Death-of-a-yuppie-dream
Intelligence-Squared-Financial-Crisis-031709
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Intelligence-Squared-Financial-Crisis-031709.pdf'
Open PDF ... Intelligence-Squared-Financial-Crisis-031709
BBC-The-Shock-Martin-Wolf
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/BBC-The-Shock-Martin-Wolf.pdf'
Open PDF ... BBC-The-Shock-Martin-Wolf
GDP-Bradford-De-Long-Estimates-1998-Paper
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/GDP/GDP-Bradford-De-Long-Estimates-1998-Paper.pdf'
Open PDF ... GDP-Bradford-De-Long-Estimates-1998-Paper
Median Household Income Growth: Deflating the American Dream ... by Doug Short ... September 16, 2014
What is the single best indicator of the American Dream? Many would point to household income growth. The Census Bureau has now published some selected annual household income data in a new report: Income and Poverty in the United States: 2013. Last year the median (middle) household income was $51,939 ­­ a 1.8% year­over­year increase that shrinks to 0.3% when adjusted for inflation. Let's put the new release into a larger historical context. Our study of the Census Bureau's historical data shows a 627% growth in median household incomes from 1967 through 2013. The ride has been bumpy, but it equates to a 4.41% annualized growth rate. Sounds impressive, but if you adjust for inflation using the Census Bureau's method, that nominal 627% total growth shrinks to about 19%, a 'real' annualized growth rate of 0.38%. But if we dig a bit deeper into the method of inflation adjustment, the American Dream looks more like an illusion, as in 'money illusion'.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/AdvisorPerspectives/Advisor-Perspectives-Median-Household-Income-Growth-Doug-Short-2014.pdf'
Open PDF ... Advisor-Perspectives-Median-Household-Income-Growth-Doug-Short-2014

Service Economics
On value and value co-creation: A service systems and service logic perspective ... Vargo-Maglio-Akaka ... 2008
Stephen L. Vargo a , Paul P. Maglio b,*, Melissa Archpru Akaka a
Summary: The creation of value is the core purpose and central process of economic exchange. Traditional models of value creation focus on the firm’s output and price. We present an alternative perspective, one representing the intersection of two growing streams of thought, service science and service-dominant (S-D) logic. We take the view that (1) service, the application of competences (such as knowledge and skills) by one party for the benefit of another, is the underlying basis of exchange; (2) the proper unit of analysis for service-for-service exchange is the service system, which is a configuration of resources (including people, information, and technology) connected to other systems by value propositions; and (3) service science is the study of service systems and of the cocreation of value within complex configurations of resources. We argue that value is fundamentally derived and determined in use – the integration and application of resources in a specific context – rather than in exchange – embedded in firm output and captured by price. Service systems interact through mutual service exchange relationships, improving the adaptability and survivability of all service systems engaged in exchange, by allowing integration of resources that are mutually beneficial. This argument has implications for advancing service science by identifying research questions regarding configurations and processes of value co-creation and measurements of value-in-use, and by developing its ties with economics and other service-oriented disciplines.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economics/Service-Economics/Service-Perspective-Vargo-Maglio-Akaka-2008.pdf'
Open PDF ... Service-Perspective-Vargo-Maglio-Akaka-2008

The following material from Economy


UK

UK-Government-Spending-1900-2014
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economy/UK/UK-Government-Spending-1900-2014.pdf'
Open PDF ... UK-Government-Spending-1900-2014

USA

Country ... USA 40 Years of Gutting the Economy
Steve Fraser ... December 2012 ... Financial Firms Have Been Hollowing Out America for Decades -- Now We're on the Verge of a Debtpocalypse
Open file 3789
William-Domhoff-Who-Rules-America-Wealth-Income-and-Power
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economy/USA/William-Domhoff-Who-Rules-America-Wealth-Income-and-Power.pdf'
Open file 1443 Open PDF ... William-Domhoff-Who-Rules-America-Wealth-Income-and-Power

Economic-Report-of-the-President-2001
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economy/USA/Economic-Report-of-the-President-2001.pdf'
Open PDF ... Economic-Report-of-the-President-2001
Economic-Report-of-the-President-2002
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Economy/USA/Economic-Report-of-the-President-2002.pdf'
Open PDF ... Economic-Report-of-the-President-2002

Economic Trends ... New Economics Foundation / Frank Van Lerven
NORTHERN ROCK: TEN YEARS ON ... WHY DEBT IS STILL THE ISSUE
Open file 13803

Source: World Bank
From 1960 to 2008, in the UK there was a drop in the amount of public debt as a % of GDP and an increase in the amount of private debt. This graph shows the way in which ordinary people have had to go into debt in order to improve, or perhaps just maintain, their standard of living. Rich people (and powerful oprganizations like banks and multinational organizations) have paid an inadequate amount of taxes and argued against public debt. There has been a massdive transfer of earned income from people who actually earned it to those that have been owners.


Source: Bank of England and ONS
In the UK between 2013 and 2016, there has a small amount of growth in income, but a much larger growth in debt.


Issue
Economics
Basic observation
Economics has been described as the dismal science, but it is interesting as a framework for preliminary analysis of relief and development.
Prevailing response
Economic data has come to dominate the relief and development sector and the organizations that control the resources and allocate funds. This is good as far as it goes, but it is not a good way to allocate resources and make investment decisions.
A better response
The economics data relative to relief and development should be used as the jumping off point for a strong management information regime that not only understands the aggregates, but the costs and the activities and the results that make up the aggregates. Management information is a huge missing component of available data.


The text being discussed is available at
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