Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

Potential and Illustrative Core Indicators:

Indicator 7: Percentage of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (MDG Indicator)

Rationale and definition: The percentage of the population below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption is defined as the percentage of people in a population who suffer from hunger or food deprivation (caloric). This MDG Indicator collected by FAO is expressed as a percentage, and it is based on the following three parameters:

• The three-year moving average amount of food available for human consumption per person per day;

• The level of inequality in access to that food; and

• The minimum dietary energy required for an average person– expressed in kilocalories per day.

Disaggregation: This indicator measures an important aspect of the food insecurity of a population. In assessing food insecurity, it is important to consider geographical areas that may be particularly vulnerable (such as areas with a high probability of major variations in food production or supply) and population groups whose access to food is precarious or sporadic, such as particular ethnic or social groups. In addition, intra-household access to food may show disparities by sex. Therefore, whenever household survey food consumption data are available disaggregated by sex, efforts should be made to conduct sex-based undernourishment analyses.40

Comments and limitations: To be reviewed.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: B

Potential lead agency or agencies: FAO and WHO.

Indicator 8: [Percentage of population with shortfalls of any one of the following essential micronutrients: iron, zinc, iodine, vitamin A, folate, and vitamin B12]— to be developed

Rationale and definition: Micronutrients are essential for good health, however shortfalls of one or more micronutrients are common in some regions, with diet and poverty being driving factors. Micronutrient deficiencies are especially devastating to pregnant women and children, as deficiencies can have lifelong affects. Many measures and mappings exist for shortfalls of the six most commonly deficient micronutrients: the minerals iron, zinc, and iodine, and the vitamins A, B12, and folate. An indicator that tracks these deficiencies on a global, comparable scale needs to be developed.

The structure and composition of the indicator would need to be developed on the basis of a thorough review of available data on micronutrients and opportunities for scaling up data collection under the SDGs. The goal would be to capture every person suffering from a micronutrient deficiency, not just iron deficiency (anemia) as under the MDGs.

Disaggregation: Opportunities for disaggregation to be reviewed once the indicator has been developed.

40 United Nations, (2003).

Revised working draft (July 25, 2014) 37

Comments and limitations: Some experts suggest that vitamin D be added this list. This question would need to be resolved before this indicator is included in a post-2015 monitoring framework. A complementary indicator on micronutrient deficiencies is anemia in non-pregnant women (see Tier 2 Indicators below).41

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: B

Potential lead agency or agencies: Such data is collected by FAO and WHO and would need to be combined into a composite indicator that would form an essential component of a post-2015 monitoring framework.

Indicator 9: Prevalence of stunting in children under [5] years of age

Rationale and definition: This indicator measures the percentage of children age [5] years whose height for age is two or more standard deviations below the median height for age of a reference population. Stunting in children captures the broad effects of chronic malnourishment and therefore is a good indicator for the hunger target. Stunting in children can have severe impacts on the physical, mental, and emotional development of children, and evidence has shown that the effects of stunting at a young age, particularly on brain development, may be impossible to undo at a later age even if the child receives appropriate nutrition. This indicator therefore draws attention to the critical importance of providing adequate nutrition to young children.

Disaggregation: This indicator can be disaggregated by sex, household income, and other socioeconomic, as well as spatial, qualifiers.

Comments and limitations: Some advocate for measuring stunting at 2 years. A final decision on the age at which to measure stunting will need to be taken.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: A

Potential lead agency or agencies: The indicator is routinely measured and data could be collected by UNICEF and WHO. 42

Indicator 10: Crop yield gap (actual yield as % of attainable yield)

Rationale and definition: This indicator tracks yield gaps for major commodities, i.e. actual yields relative to the yield that can be achieved under good management conditions, taking into account climate and the sustainable use of water (i.e. water-limited yield potential). This indicator is a benchmark for productivity that shows the exploitable yield gap. Countries could aim, for example, for the majority of their farms to achieve at least 80% of the attainable water-limited yield potential on a sustainable basis, which requires implementing the right policy and technology roadmaps.

Disaggregation: It can be disaggregated by crops of highest priority for a country and is suitable for spatial disaggregation, from local to global scales.

Comments and limitations: This indicator must be interpreted in conjunction with other indicators expressing efficiency of critical resources, such as water and nutrients, to ensure agro-ecologically sustainable solutions. It requires improved data collection and monitoring systems, including modeling and remote sensing.43

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: C

41 WHO, (2014c). 42 WHO, (2014b). 43 Dobermann, A. and Nelson, R. et al., (2013), Solutions for Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems, Technical report of the Thematic Group on Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems, Paris, France and New York, USA: SDSN.

Revised working draft (July 25, 2014) 38

Potential lead agency or agencies: FAO.

Indicator 11: Number of agriculture extension workers per 1000 farmers [or share of farmers covered by agricultural extension programs and services]

Rationale and definition: It will not be possible to increase sustainable agriculture yields in all countries without a functioning public and or private agricultural extension system. The proposed indicator has been developed by FAO to track the total number of qualified agricultural professionals across different sectors that provide training, information, and other extension support and services to farmers and small to medium enterprises in rural value chains.

Disaggregation: This indicator can be disaggregated at sub-national scales, by gender, and by public vs. private sector extension workers.

Comments and limitations: The current indicator has a few limitations. First, the indicator does not distinguish between levels of training of extension workers. It should only include professionals with a minimum level of education, training, and certification. Second, the indicator does not measure the effectiveness of the agricultural extension system in terms of actually reaching farmers with new information, knowledge and services. Therefore, an additional indicator could be developed to measure the percentage of farmers who are effectively and regularly covered by quality agricultural extension or similar programs.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: To be determined.

Potential lead agency or agencies: Data for the indicator is collected by the FAO.44

Indicator 12: [Crop nitrogen use efficiency (%)]

Rationale and definition: Nitrogen plays a central role for the productivity, sustainability and environmental impact of food systems. Most of the anthropogenic nitrogen produced enters global cycles as fertilizer in crop production. Hence, optimizing management so that high yields can be achieved with high nitrogen fertilizer efficiency is a core component of food security as well as environmental sustainability. This indicator is the ratio of nitrogen in harvested crop products to the amount of nitrogen applied per cropping season or year. It is directly related to the efficiency of fertilizer use on agricultural land, including new technologies and stewardship programs targeting farmers and advisors.

Targets for crop nitrogen use efficiency are context-specific, primarily depending on climate, yield, current nitrogen use, soil quality, irrigation, and other crop management practices. This indicator needs to be interpreted in relation to other indicators, such as the crop yield indicator and the water productivity indicator. A possible target range for this indicator could be to improve crop nitrogen efficiency by [30%] relative to current levels in countries in which the current efficiency is well below levels than can be achieved with good nutrient management and stewardship.

International and regional organizations, the fertilizer industry, and the scientific community should work together to refine this indicator. This will require major improvements of the necessary data collection systems in two ways: (i) annual nutrient use and crop removal statistics at sub-national level and by crops (fertilizers and other nutrient sources) and (ii) regular field monitoring of nitrogen use efficiency and other nutrient-related indicators (e.g. soil fertility, management practices for better nutrient stewardship). Disaggregation: Spatially and by crops or farming system.

44 Ibid.

Revised working draft (July 25, 2014) 39

Comments and limitations: We recognize the importance of other macro- and micronutrients for sustainable crop and livestock production through balanced nutrition. However, globally, nitrogen use and use-efficiency is of overarching importance also due to its impact on a wide range of ecosystem services (see also Indicator 13). Also, the proposed indicator does not address unsustainable soil nutrient depletion, which may reduce crop production and economic return. Countries where nutrients are underused in agriculture should consider additional indicators and quantitative targets for addressing such situations of underuse of nutrients.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: C

Potential lead agency or agencies: Data for this indicator could be collected by FAO working with the

International Fertilizer Association (IFA) and national agencies.45

Indicator 13: [Excessive loss of reactive nitrogen [and phosphorus] to the environment] - to be developed

Rationale and definition: Nitrogen and phosphorus in fertilizers are essential for feeding the world’s population. They are also critical for intensive farming, thereby limiting the conversion of land to agriculture. Both nutrients will play a critical role in achieving the SDGs after 2015. Large differences exist within and among countries in nutrient cycles. While some regions – notably sub-Saharan Africa – use too little nitrogen and phosphorus and thus deplete their soils, others experience excessive lifecycle losses of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus primarily from agriculture and livestock, but also from fuel combustion, sewage, and other activities. Such excessive nitrogen flows may affect the stability of key ecosystems and biomes, in particular marine ones, with repercussions at regional and global scales. Nutrients also move across political boundaries, requiring concerted international action to promote best management practices without undermining agricultural productivity.

As described by the SDSN Thematic Group on Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems,46 the main way of reducing nutrient losses without reducing agricultural productivity and soil quality is the effective and efficient application of plant nutrients, for which a variety of indicators can be utilized. Here we propose to define a complementary indicator to monitor excessive nutrient loads that cause damage to ecosystem functions. Such an indicator may be derived from work on indicators for nitrogen flows that is underway in several fora, including the Convention on Biological Diversity47, the OECD, and industry initiatives.48

Disaggregation: To be reviewed once the indicator has been defined.

Comments and limitations: We underscore that today’s scientific understanding of regional and global nitrogen cycles is not robust enough to set quantitative planetary boundaries for nitrogen and phosphorus. Boundaries that have been proposed in the past may need to be revised.49 Considering the importance of nutrients for sustainable development, advancing our knowledge of regional and global tipping points related to excessive loss of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus to quantify safe regional and global thresholds should be an important priority for earth systems science. Likewise, our understanding of the pathways through which excessive nitrogen flows affect the environment at local, national, regional, and global scales need to be improved to design clear headline indicators for nitrogen flows.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: To be determined.

Potential lead agency or agencies: UNEP or other agency.

45 Ibid.

46 Ibid.

47 For more information, see Biodiversity Indicators Partnership webpage: www.bipindicators.net/nitrogenloss

48 See in particular the 4R Nutrient Stewardship (www.nutrientstewardship.com)

49 For example, see de Vries, M et al., (2013), Assessing planetary and regional nitrogen boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 5:392–402.

Revised working draft (July 25, 2014) 40

Indicator 14: [Access to drying, storage, and processing facilities]— Indicator to be developed

Rationale and definition: Good infrastructure for drying and storing agricultural produce as well as inputs is critical to reducing losses due to contamination by mycotoxins, insects, or other food contaminants. Drying, storage, and processing facilities also increase the earnings of farmers by allowing them more time in which to sell their crops and wait for good prices. Expanding rural processing capacity generates employment opportunities, enhances access to markets, and facilitates value addition (including the production of foods to enhance infant/child nutrition and reduce maternal drudgery). It is therefore important to develop an indicator that estimates access to drying, storage, and processing facilities.50

Disaggregation: Opportunities for disaggregation to be reviewed once the indicator has been developed. Comments and limitations: To be reviewed.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: To be determined.

Potential lead agency or agencies: FAO.

Indicator 15: Annual change in degraded or desertified arable land (% or ha)

Rationale and definition: The FAO defines land degradation as a reduction in the condition of the land, which affects its ability to provide ecosystem goods and services and to assure its functions over a period of time.51

Components of land degradation include salinization, erosion, loss of soil nutrients, and sand dune encroachment. Data on land degradation is continuously being improved through advances in remote sensing, digital mapping, and monitoring. A central objective should be to halt all net land degradation by 2030.

Disaggregation: The FAO supports methodologies to determine the extent of degradation, distinguishing between light, moderate, strong, and extreme. Data will be disaggregated by these categories and by subregion.

Comments and limitations: To date, data on degraded and desertified arable land has been patchy. Efforts have been stepped up since the UN appointed 2010-2020 ‘the decade of desertification’, mostly led by FAO and UNCCD52, but there is still some way to go. Investments in remote sensing, digital mapping, and monitoring will be crucial to this effort.

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: To be determined. Potential lead agency or agencies: FAO, UNEP.

50 Dobermann, A. and Nelson, R. et al., (2013).

51 See FAOSTAT: http://faostat.fao.org/site/375/default.aspx

52 See for example a new methodology being developed by the FAO: ftp://ftp.fao.org/agl/agll/docs/landdegradationassessment.doc and an example of current data availability in UNCCD, (2014) Desertification: The invisible Front Line, UNCCD: Bonn.

Revised working draft (July 25, 2014) 41

Indicator 16: [Crop water productivity (tons of harvested product per unit irrigation water)]—to be developed

Rationale and definition: The proposed indicator is directly related to freshwater use for irrigation. Under the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) water productivity is defined as the value added of agriculture divided by water use by agriculture. More work is needed to define this indicator.

Disaggregation: Opportunities for disaggregation to be reviewed once the indicator has been defined.

Comments and limitations: Another alternative is to define water productivity as the efficiency with which water is converted to harvested product, i.e. the ratio between yield and seasonal water supply, including rainfall and irrigation.53

Preliminary assessment of current data availability by Friends of the Chair: C

Potential lead agency or agencies: FAO.

Additional indicators that countries may consider:

• [Indicator on food price volatility] - to be developed: extreme food price volatility is an important driver in food security and should be tracked.

• Public and private R&D expenditure on agriculture and rural development (% of GNI): This indicator tracks public and private resource mobilization for R&D on agriculture and rural development as a share of GNI

• [Indicator on genetic diversity] - to be developed: This indicator will track seed and genetic plant diversity

• Livestock yield gap (actual yield as % of attainable yield). This indicator tracks yield gaps for major livestock commodities like milk, eggs and meat, taking into account climate, disease conditions and the sustainable use of water and feed. This indicator must be interpreted in conjunction with other indicators expressing efficiency of critical resources such as feed and water to ensure agroecologically sustainable solutions, as well as total livestock numbers at the household and national levels. It also should ensure increased yields do not come at the expense of animal welfare and that farmers can access veterinary services.

• Share of calories from non-staple crops. This simple indicator can be used to track progress towards more diverse and healthier diets.

• Prevalence of anemia in non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Anemia is a multi-factorial disorder caused mainly by iron deficiency and infections and to a lesser extent by deficiencies of vitamin A, vitamin B12, folate, and riboflavin. It serves as a proxy for micronutrient deficiencies in the absence of more comprehensive indicators. Data on anemia prevalence collected in 1993-2005 are available for 73% of non-pregnant women of reproductive age, in 82 countries, (WHO 2012).

• Cereal yield growth rate (% p.a.). Averaged over several years, this indicator tracks long-term increases in crop yields, which must make an important contribution to meeting future food needs.

• [Indicator on irrigation access gap ]— to be developed. Increasing irrigation in areas where it can be done sustainably but is currently underutilized will be important to raise crop yields. An appropriate indicator to measure this is needed.

• [Farmers with nationally appropriate crop insurance (%)]— to be developed. This indicator seeks to quantify resilience (to storms, floods, drought, pests, etc.) in agricultural systems.

53 Van Ittersum, M.K. et al., (2013).

Revised working draft