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Date: 2018-09-20 Page is: DBtxt001.php L0700-CS-NC-CLIMATE

NATURAL CAPITAL
CLIMATE
AIR / ATMOSPHERE / CLIMATE / WEATHER / NATURAL CIRCULATIONS

TO DO ... update images to be more relevant to the subject matter

More snow / Less arctic ice / More floods / More storms / More droughts

CLIMATE CHANGE GO TOP

OECD-Environmental-Outlook-to-2050-November-2011
KEY MESSAGE: Climate change presents a global systemic risk to society. It threatens the basic elements of life for all people: access to water, food production, health, use of land, and physical and natural capital. Inadequate attention to climate change could have significant social consequences for human well-being, hamper economic growth and heighten the risk of abrupt and large-scale changes to our climatic and ecological systems. The significant economic damage could equate to a permanent loss in average percapita world consumption of more than 14% (Stern, 2006). Some poor countries would be likely to suffer particularly severely. This chapter demonstrates how avoiding these economic, social and environmental costs will require effective policies to shift economies onto low-carbon and climate-resilient growth paths.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/OECD/OECD-Environmental-Outlook-to-2050-November-2011.pdf'
Open PDF ... OECD-Environmental-Outlook-to-2050-November-2011
EARTH TEMPERATURE TIMELINE
EARTH TEMPERATURE TIMELINE ... THE LAST 600 YEARS
EARTH TEMPERATURE TIMELINE ... THE LAST FEW MILLION YEARS
L0700-NC-CLIMATE-historic-timeline
Open L0700-NC-CLIMATE-historic-timeline
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 1850 - 2016
Global temperatures are on the rise again as 2016 has been marked as the hottest on record.
Open file 12947
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 1880 - 2016
Global ocean temperature anomolies from 1880 to 2016
The temperature rise post 1980 has been continuous ... reflecting the massive increase in scale of industrial activity in the post war years.
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 9000 BC - 2016 AD
Very long term temperative change ... a period of 10,000 years
The temperature rise in the last hundred years is 'off the chart'

Temperature Rise
Correlation beteen temperature and carbon dioxide concentration
Global temperature and Carbon Dioxide
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the same period 1880 to 2016
Recent years have seen significant rise in termperatue ANB significant increase in the concentration of of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
There was a blip in temperature increase during WWII before carbon dioxide concentrations were recorded as rising. Might the reason for this be the lack of accurate data during the war years?

ICE MELT / SEA LEVEL RISE
Arctic Ice Melt
Observation of ice melt has been going on for several decades. There are indications that the process of ice melt is accelerating rather than going more slowly.
Sea Level Rise ... 1992 to 2016
Multiple measures for sea level rise show sea level rise has been substantial in recent years
POPULATION AT RISK DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE
The population of many major cities will be adversely affected by sea level rise
2015-916-NPS-NRR-Coastal-Assets-Exposed-to-1m-of-Sea-Level-Rise-Peek-et-al
National Park Service ... Adapting To Climate Change in Coastal Parks
Estimating the Exposure of Park Assets to 1 m of Sea-Level Rise
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/SeaLevelRise/2015-916-NPS-NRR-Coastal-Assets-Exposed-to-1m-of-Sea-Level-Rise-Peek-et-al.pdf'
Open PDF ... SEI-Study-on-the-Integrity-of-the-Clean-Development-Mechanism-2011
State-of-the-Beach-Report-2017
The goal of Surfrider’s State of the Beach Report Card is to make the public aware of the ever-growing erosion problem facing our beaches and improve how municipalities and agencies respond to erosion and sea level rise.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/SeaLevelRise/State-of-the-Beach-Report-2017.pdf'
Open PDF ... State-of-the-Beach-Report-2017

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS - 2012

SUPERSTORM SANDY
Superstorm Sandy
A fierce storm with enormous energy ...
Superstorm Sandy
A coastline destroyed: Terrifying pictures show the devastation wreaked on New Jersey's shores by Sandy
Open file 12948
Impact of Superstorm Sandy on New Jersey
Homes, flooded after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline, on October 30, 2012 in Tuckerton, New Jersey.
The Economic Damage Associated with Superstorm Sandy
An aerial photo of Jan 18 2013 shows thousands of cars damaged during Superstorm Sandy and stored on the runways at an airport in Calverton, N.Y.

HURRICANE HARVEY - 2017
SOUTH TEXAS ... HOUSTON / BEAUMONT / WESTERN LOUISIANA


HURRICANE IRMA - 2017
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS / FLORIDA / GEORGIA / CAROLINAS


REPORTS on CLIMATE ISSUES
Carbon Control Mechanisms
SEI-Lessons-for-Carbon-Mechanism-2015 (128 pages) Has Joint Implementation reduced GHG emissions? Lessons learned for the design of carbon market mechanisms
Anja Kollmuss, Lambert Schneider and Vladyslav Zhezherin ... Stockholm Environment Institute Analysis of impact of Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol to generate Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) from greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Carbon/SEI/SEI-Lessons-for-Carbon-Mechanism-2015.pdf'
ABSTRACT
This study systematically evaluates the environmental integrity of Joint Implementation (JI) in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. Our analysis indicates that about three-quarters of JI offsets are unlikely to represent additional emissions reductions. This suggests that the use of JI offsets may have enabled global GHG emissions to be about 600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent higher than they would have been if countries had met their emissions domestically. Of the six largest project types assessed in more detail, we find only one – N2O abatement from nitric acid production – had overall high environmental integrity. Our evaluation clearly shows that oversight of an international market mechanism by the host country alone is insufficient to ensure environmental integrity. The paper makes recommendations for the ongoing review of the JI Guidelines, for carbon markets generally, and for a new climate agreement.
TPB Note 170912: This seems to be another example of the myth of markets, the invisible hand rarely produces the desired outcome but something completely different!
Open PDF ... SEI-Lessons-for-Carbon-Mechanism-2015
SEI-Study-on-the-Integrity-of-the-Clean-Development-Mechanism-2011
(81 pages)
Has Joint Implementation reduced GHG emissions? Lessons learned for the design of carbon market mechanisms
Anja Kollmuss, Lambert Schneider and Vladyslav Zhezherin ... Stockholm Environment Institute Analysis of impact of Joint Implementation Kyoto Protocol to generate Emission Reduction Units (ERUs) from greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction projects

'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Carbon/SEI/SEI-Study-on-the-Integrity-of-the-Clean-Development-Mechanism-2011.pdf'
Open PDF ... SEI-Study-on-the-Integrity-of-the-Clean-Development-Mechanism-2011

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT
Doing everything they can to stop essential remediation
GO TOP
EDF-171028-Trump-Presidency-An-Unprecedented-Attack

Now, the Trump Administration is working to undermine two critical victories:
First, the Department of Interior announced they working to unravel much-needed limits on the amount of natural gas industry is allowed to waste through venting, leaking, and burning off (in a process called 'flaring') on our public and tribal lands.
Then, EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt announced a proposal to repeal the Clean Power Plan—America's first-ever national limits on the carbon pollution spewing from our fossil fuel-fired power plants.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/EDF/EDF-171028-Trump-Presidency-An-Unprecedented-Attack.pdf'
Open PDF ... EDF-171028-Trump-Presidency-An-Unprecedented-Attack

Emission Reduction Unit (ERU)
An ERU represents a reduction of greenhouse gases under the Joint Implementation mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, where it represents one tonne of CO2 equivalent reduced.[1]
To allow comparison between the different effects of gases on the environment, scientists have defined multipliers for gases that compare their greenhouse potency (global warming potential) relative to that of carbon dioxide.
'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_Reduction_Unit'
Open external Wikilink
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
Global warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount of heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide.
A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100, or 500 years. GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GWP is standardized to 1).
'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_potential'
Open external Wikilink
Report on sea climate change related metrics attributed to specific carbon producing companies
12 pages

The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers
B. Ekwurzel 1 & J. Boneham2 & M. W. Dalton2,3 & R. Heede 4 & R. J. Mera1,5 & M. R. Allen2 & P. C. Frumhoff 6
Received: 19 August 2016 /Accepted: 23 April 2017
# The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/CrossMark/CrossMark-climate-change-2017.pdf'
Open PDF ... CrossMark-climate-change-2017

'../../DBpdfs/Carbon/TCFD-Report-Letter-2016-12-21.pdf' '../../DBpdfs/Carbon/TCFD-Report-Overview-2016-Dec.pdf'
UNLOCKING POTENTIAL ... State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Executive-Summary

'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/NaturalCapital/ForestTrends/State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Executive-Summary.pdf'
Open PDF ... State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Executive-Summary
UNLOCKING POTENTIAL ... State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Full-Report

'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/NaturalCapital/ForestTrends/State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Full-Report.pdf'
Open PDF ... State-of-the-Voluntary-Carbon-Markets-2017-Full-Report
Organization: Forest Trends ... Staff List / details
Staff list, short bios of staff at Forect Trends
Open file 13923

Banking-On-Climate-Change-2017
This 8th annual Fossil Fuel Finance Report Card grades fossil fuel policies and tabulates financing from 37 major private banks from across Europe, the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and Australia.
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/Banking/Banking-On-Climate-Change-2017.pdf'
Open PDF ... Banking-On-Climate-Change-2017

Climate change linkages

Mapping these climate change linkages to the TVM management metrics
While the logic of this diagram is sound, it is very difficult to use as a foundational construct or management metrics.
The socio-enviro=economic system has positive progress when the STATE or CAPITAL of the system improves or increases. In conventional financial accounting the measure of progress is the increace in financial capital. In TVM it is the aggregate improvement or increase in ALL the capitals taken together.
Climate is a component of NATURAL CAPITAL, and important in so far as the climate that has been stable for a very long time ... millions of years ... might be poised to change in ways that are very unpredictable and may well prove to be an existential threat to the very survival of mankind.
The RISK of possible climate change MUST be taken into consideration when making decisions and for this there needs to be an apprppriate metric.
Climate change risk is TVM STREAM. What this means is that climate change risk is recognized as a factor that feeds into many of the FLOWS that impact the various STATES.

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE
Coastal flooding poses a major risk to New York City (NYC), which has nearly 49.7 million built square meters and 400,000 people living within the 100-y floodplain (1). The coastal flood risk was illustrated in 2012, when Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge of 2.8 m above the mean tidal level (MTL) at the Battery tide gauge produced an estimated $50 billion of damage to the region (2). Under a changing climate, the coastal flood risk to NYC is unknown
Andra J. Garnera,b,1, Michael E. Mannc,d, Kerry A. Emanuele, Robert E. Koppb,f, Ning Ling, Richard B. Alleyh,Benjamin P. Hortona,b,i,j, Robert M. DeContok, Jeffrey P. Donnellyl, and David Pollardd
Report ... 6 pages
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/PNAS/PNAS-2017-Garner-1703568114.pdf'
Open PDF ... PNAS-2017-Garner-1703568114
Supplemetary information ... 15 pages
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/PNAS/PNAS-2017-Garner-1703568114-with-supplementary-info.pdf'
Open PDF ... PNAS-2017-Garner-1703568114-with-supplementary-info

An Energy Balance
This energy balance maybe the most important for an equilibrium we can live with!

Heat Flow and energy balance
This is a complicated natural system. It is a system that has taken a very long time to stabilize.
During the last 200 years there has been a massive increase in human economic activity that has changed some of the flows in the system, so that the system is no longer in equlibrium.
The changes in the energy balance manifests as increased global temperature.
In turn, increase global remperature destabilizes other dimensions of the global ecosystem / biosphere
At the peak of the ice age global temperature was only some 6oC lower than where we have been for the last several thousand years ... with global temperatuve rising in the last 200 years by 1oC and accelerating. The indications are that the system is entering a period of dangerous instability.

The last 10,000 years
Very long term temperative change ... a period of 10,000 years
The temperature rise in the last hundred years is 'off the chart'

The last 600 years
More ... the last 22,000 years
The last 22,000 years Open L0700-CS-NC-CLIMATE-historic-timeline




The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones GORDON MCGRANAHAN, DEBORAH BALK and BRIDGET ANDERSON

ABSTRACT
Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the first global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world’s land area but contains 10 per cent of the world’s population and 13 per cent of the world’s urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost twothirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modification. KEYWORDS climate change / coastal / global / hazards / population distribution / urbanization

'http'//truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/SeaLevelRise/Sea-level-rise-2007.pdf'
Open PDF ... Sea-level-rise-2007

'http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/application/pdf/nwpexpert_mcgranahan_balk_anderson_2007.pdf'
Open external link


Boston USA

Washington DC USA

Montreal Canada

New York USA

New York USA

Paris

Barcelona

Mexico City, Mexico

Stockholm Sweden

Global Temperature Rise
Temperature rise
Global temperatures are on the rise again as 2016 has been marked as the hottest on record.
Open file 12947
Global ocean temperature anomolies from 1880 to 2016
The temperature rise post 1980 has been continuous ... reflecting the massive increase in scale of industrial activity in the post war years.

Correlation and Causality for Temperature Rise
Global temperature and Carbon Dioxide
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the same period 1880 to 2016

Ice Melt
Ice melt is caused by rising temperatures
Arctic Ice Melt
Observation of ice melt has been going on for several decades. There are indications that the process of ice melt is accelerating rather than going more slowly.

Credit: Calving front of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Credit: NASA, public domain
Antarctic Ice Melt

Sea Level Rise
Most of sea level rise is caused by ice melt
Sea Level Rise ... 1992 to 2016
Multiple measures for sea level rise show sea level rise has been substantial in recent years
NPS-2018-Sea-Level-Change-Storm-Surge-Report.pdf
This report on Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections for the National Park Service shows how many National Parks will be impacted by sea level rise
'http://truevaluemetrics.org/DBpdfs/ClimateChange/NPS/NPS-2018-Sea-Level-Change-Storm-Surge-Report.pdf'
Open PDF ... NPS-2018-Sea-Level-Change-Storm-Surge-Report
Coastal Flooding
Coastal flooding is caused by a combination of sea level rise, storm surges and rainstorms

A large part of the world's population live in cities that are becoming affected more and more by sea level rise and related flooding.
This map highlights cities around the world that have large populations likely to be affected by sea level rise. To give this context, the area around New York has been identified, but the coastal areas of the US Gulf Coast and the coastal areas of Florida are not identified.
Extreme weather events are becoming much more frequent. Hurricane force winds cause damage to property and injure and kill people. These winds also produce storm surges that together with ocean rise cause flooding. Unusually large amounts of rainfall also cause flooding. All of this causes massive economic loss and terrible social disruption.


Superstorm Sandy ... October 2012
Superstorm Sandy
A coastline destroyed: Terrifying pictures show the devastation wreaked on New Jersey's shores by Sandy
Open file 12948
Impact of Superstorm Sandy on New Jersey
Homes, flooded after Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline, on October 30, 2012 in Tuckerton, New Jersey.
The Economic Damage Associated with Superstorm Sandy
An aerial photo of Jan 18 2013 shows thousands of cars damaged during Superstorm Sandy and stored on the runways at an airport in Calverton, N.Y.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KD.GD CO2 intensity (kg per kg of oil equivalent energy use)
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.GF.ZS CO2 emissions from gaseous fuel consumption (% of total)
aac https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.EG.ZS CO2 emissions (kg per 2010 US$ of GDP)

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.GF.KT?end=2014&start=1960&view=chart CO2 emissions from gaseous fuel consumption (kt) aad

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.EG.ZS CO2 intensity (kg per kg of oil equivalent energy use) aae

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT CO2 emissions (kt) aaf

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.LF.KT CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption (kt) aag

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PP.GD CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) aah

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.SF.KT CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption (kt) aai
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 1850 - 2016
Global temperatures are on the rise again as 2016 has been marked as the hottest on record.
Climate Change Dangerous Trend Planet Enters 'Uncharted Territory' Open file 12947
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 1880 - 2016
Global ocean temperature anomolies from 1880 to 2016
The temperature rise post 1980 has been continuous ... reflecting the massive increase in scale of industrial activity in the post war years.
Earth Temperature Timeline ... 9000 BC - 2016 AD
Very long term temperative change ... a period of 10,000 years
The temperature rise in the last hundred years is 'off the chart'



The text being discussed is available at


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