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Date: 2019-09-15 Page is: DBtxt001.php L07-03-PROGRESS-PERFORMANCE
OVERVIEW #3
PROGRESS & PERFORMANCE
of the SOCIO-ENVIRO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM
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CONSIDER THE RESULTS
THE TRENDS ARE CATASTROPHIC
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ACCOUNTING FOR SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND NATURAL CAPITALS
COLOR CODE DISTANT PAST PRESENT NOT GOOD FUTURE COLLAPSE
Aggregated Socio-Enviro-Economic Trends
What has been happening ... What needs to happen in the immediate future
THE WHOLE SYSTEM THE ACTUAL PAST A NO CHANGE FUTURE A BETTER FUTURE
More and more DEPLETION and DEGRADATION of NATURAL CAPITAL is UNSUSTAINABLE
Industrial pollution has been seen as a problem for a very long time and has been addressed in some parts of the world (mainly Europe) since the early post war years. In the USA President Nixon's administration established the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to address the problem of pollution and environmental degradation. Progress of the industrial revolution improved quality of life, as well as creating economic wealth. In aggregate, the depletion of resources and the degradation of the environment has continued and accelerated to the present time. There is a scientific consensus that this trajectory is unsutainable and must be changed to avoid catastrophic collapse.
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POST WWII PROGRESS
PRODUCTIVITY UP
WAGES UP

From end WWII to around 1980
STRONG
GDP GROWTH

GDP growth has been very strong
CAPITAL MARKETS
STOCK VALUES UP

Stock market has been spectacular
BETTER
HOUSING

More decent housing to around 1980
SINCE WWII, GREAT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE TILL THE 1970s
In the 'developed countries' there was a lot of social and economic progress post WWII up until the 1970s. Compared to the 1930s, most people in developed countries were better off, and people were also glad to be living in peace rather being at war.
People in less developed countries (LDCs) did not share so much in this increasing prosperity and agitated to change things. One result of this was 'independence' for many former colonial administrations. This played out in the 1950s, 60s and 70s with mixed results.
Another event was the formation of the OPEC cartel (that is the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries) which succeeded in getting control of international oil markets in 1973 and raising the price of a barrel of oil from $3.50 to $13.50. The resulting 'oil shock' changed the global balances of economic power in important ways that still resonate almost 50 years later.
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BUT MOST WORKERS IN THE WEST LEFT BEHIND SINCE AROUND 1980
PRODUCTIVITY UP
WAGES FLAT

From around 1980 to present time
GDP GROWING
GPI FLAT

While GDP is up, progress (GPI) is flat
MASSIVE
INEQUALITY

Telling the truth
DEGRADED
HOUSING

Slums proliferating since 1980
US manufacturing became globally uncompetitive after the 1973 'oil shock'. US competitive advantage had been low energy prices relative to the rest of the world and this was over. US industry was energy inefficient and corporate profits crashed, together with stock markets. Prices soared together with inflation and interest rates. During the Reagan administration, trade unions and worker wages came under attack and since then wages have flatlined even as profits recovered.
Since the end of WWII there has been amazing technological progress. This has enabled improved productivity ... that is it has increased efficiency and lowered production costs. Lower production costs has come in big part from lower payroll costs, which has had a negative impact on worker income. Essentially worker wages have not increased significantly in 40 years, while productivity and profits have increased considerably.
During the last few decades there have been major generational shifts in social norms. In aggregate the social and economic indicators suggest that this is progress, but more detail analysis suggests that some few have progressed quite well, rather more have regressed significantly. For many, quality of life has deteriorated, with increased stress and in the USA, record levels of suicide.
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TOP 1% ... HUGE WEALTH and EXPENSIVE TOYS

Real Estate

Luxury Yachts

Private Jet

Hermes handbag
The accumulation of wealth during the past half century has been enormous. This has been enabled by 'financialization', the unconstrained concentration of economic power, reduced government regulation and amazing technological progress. Technological progress has enabled more effective profit management, and especially improved international logistics that has made it possible to build very low cost high profit supply chains. There are more billionaires in the modern world than at any time in history ... and new ones being created all the time.
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CATASTROPHIC SITUATION FOR BOTTOM OF THE PYRAMID

Terrible Poverty

Urban slums

Malnutrition

Genocide
The socio-economic performance for people at the 'bottom of the pyramid' has been unsatisfactory. In aggregate there have been billions of people who have moved up the economic ladder, driven in the main by the economic improvement in China, but there are still billions of people who are living in abject poverty. There are many more people migrating because of violence of economic deprivation than three decades ago and little progress being made to mitigate these humanirarian disasters.

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